Week 8 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 8 college football best bets:
Louisville +14 (-120) at Miami (FL)
Miami clinched the ‘state championship’ in Florida with a victory at Florida State two weeks ago and having already defeated Florida and South Florida. Now the task at hand is to run through the ACC, which they are the odds-on favorite to do.
Miami has had two bye weeks in the last three weeks. On the surface, that would be a good thing with archrival Florida State sandwiched in between those byes. However, it can often be difficult for a team playing so well to have its momentum halted with a bye week.
Louisville is also off the bye and suffered its first loss at home in OT vs. Virginia. The Cardinals outgained UVA 383 to 237, but they committed two turnovers that were both returned for touchdowns, and it was the difference.
Both defenses rank in the top 15, but Miami has done it against the tougher schedule.
Mario Cristobal is still just 7-11 ATS (2-1 this year) as a home favorite at Miami and is 20-33-2 ATS lifetime in the home chalk role.
Jeff Brohm is 9-2 ATS as a road underdog for his career when getting 7 or more points.
Purdue +3 at Northwestern
Purdue outgained Minnesota by over 200 yards but lost in Minneapolis on a late pick-six last weekend.
Turnovers have plagued the Boilers (-9) in their last four games against a very tough schedule (USC, at Notre Dame, Illinois, at Minnesota).
Northwestern is off its biggest win since David Braun took over last season in Evanston as they went to Happy Valley and defeated Penn State, ending James Franklin’s tenure at State College.
The Wildcats will struggle to run the ball on Purdue, a team that has kept substantially better rushing attacks at bay. Meanwhile, Purdue should be able to run the ball with Devin Mockobee against a Northwestern defense that gives up five yards per carry.
While he has not thrown a pick in three games, Northwestern QB Preston Stone will throw some up for grabs. Purdue should get some positive turnover regression.
Wisconsin +25.5 vs. Ohio State
Ohio State is No. 1 in the country and covered two touchdowns on the road last week against a solid Illinois team. Wisconsin got shut out at home vs. Iowa and looks like an absolute mess. So, let me rush to bet Bucky Badger, right?
This is Ohio State’s third road game in four weeks, and they have a bye on deck before Penn State comes into Columbus.
It has been a tough scene for former Buckeye Luke Fickell this season. He is likely on the hot seat despite a sizable contract buyout (certainly didn’t stop Penn State, did it?). Perhaps Ohio State takes it easy on former Buckeye player and coach Fickell. Furthermore, Ohio State is a fairly slow-tempo team, and they might not be able to get the margin with so many long drives.
Kentucky +13 vs. Texas
Texas needed to win in a big, ‘prove-it’ type of spot and did so by dominating Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. However, Sooners QB John Mateer was obviously not near 100 percent and threw three interceptions.
In terms of offense, Texas is not back. The Longhorns may still continue to sputter offensively against a Kentucky defense that will slow the game down both offensively and with plenty of zone coverage defensively.
Quick Hits
UL Monroe +6 vs. Troy
Troy is off consecutive OT wins vs. South Alabama and at Texas State (down 28-7 after the first quarter). These victories were after coming back to win at Buffalo despite being down 17-0 in the fourth quarter.
The Trojans have won three straight as an underdog and now are in the road favorite role, plus this is Troy’s third road game in four weeks. Tough spot here.
Florida Atlantic/South Florida Over 72
These are two of the top dozen offenses in the country in terms of plays per game.
Best of the Rest
Duke -120 ML vs. Georgia Tech
Old Dominion +1 at James Madison
Georgia -7 (-120) vs. Ole Miss
Florida -9.5 vs. Mississippi State
Utah -3 at BYU
For more college football Week 8 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 8 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
