Week 9 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 9 college football best bets:
Wake Forest +3 vs. SMU
SMU got at least a small modicum of revenge last weekend for the loss in the ACC Championship Game against Clemson. Granted, Clemson was playing without starting QB Cade Klubnik, but the Mustangs were clearly motivated and had arguably their best performance of the season to move to 3-0 in ACC play.
Now SMU takes to the road again to face a Wake Forest club off a bye. The Demon Deacons have been a bit of an overperformer thus far this season, considering their win total was just 4.5. Wake could easily be 5-1 if not for a failed two-point conversion in OT against currently unbeaten Georgia Tech.
Wake’s defense was 118th in total defense last year and now has risen just inside the top 40 (38th).
Robby Ashford missed the game at Oregon State, but he should be back at QB for the Deacs. Backup Deshawn Purdie threw for 270 yards and 4 TD at Oregon State, and we could see both play here with Purdie being the better downfield thrower and Ashford the better runner.
Despite last week’s victory in Death Valley, SMU’s resume has been relatively thin with victories over East Texas A&M, Missouri State, Syracuse (with its backup QB), and Stanford (needing a late pick-six to cover).
SMU is also off a big win and has Miami coming to Dallas next week, so this is that proverbial sandwich spot.
Jake Dickert, both here at Wake Forest and in his time at Washington State, has gone 12-6 ATS as a dog and is 2-1 (covers vs. Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech, non-cover at NC State) in the role at Wake.
Iowa State -140 ML vs. BYU
BYU keeps finding ways to win and remains undefeated. Two weeks ago, the Cougars trailed by 10 at Arizona with five minutes left in the fourth quarter and eventually won in 2OT. Last week vs. Utah, they were outgained by 100 yards but still won 24-21 thanks to two Utah turnovers and a questionable targeting call against the Utes in the fourth quarter.
BYU, along with Cincinnati, is still unbeaten (4-0) in Big XII play. Meanwhile, Iowa State is part of a glut of six teams that are 2-2. Needless to say, this is a must-win game for the Cyclones if they aspire to return to the Big XII Championship Game.
Iowa State has lost two straight games away from home (at Cincinnati and at Colorado). However, they have been solid off bye weeks with Matt Campbell being 9-5 ATS lifetime in the role. Earlier this season, after a near scare at Arkansas State, the bye week came along, and then Iowa State routed Arizona.
Cyclones kicker Kyle Konrardy, who made a 63-yarder against South Dakota and the game-winner in the CyHawk game vs. Iowa earlier this year, should return this week from an injury that has kept him out of the last three games. In what is expected to be a coin flip type of game, special teams could be the difference.
South Carolina +12.5 vs. Alabama
Last week, Alabama became the first team in SEC history to defeat four ranked opponents in four consecutive weeks. The Crimson Tide won at Georgia, then vs. Vanderbilt, next at Missouri, and vs. Tennessee in the annual “Third Saturday in October” spot.
This week, Alabama goes to face South Carolina, who was No. 10 in the country in early September but have lost four of its last five games.
The Gamecocks nearly won, and probably should have, at Alabama last season before falling 27-25.
This year, the offense has taken a step back as it is currently rated last in the SEC in scoring offense, total offense, and rushing offense. This group will have to pull out all the stops this week and let its best player, QB LaNorris Sellers, make plays running the football.
Alabama has a bye week on deck and then back-to-back home games vs. more ranked teams with LSU and Oklahoma coming to Tuscaloosa.
After defeating all these ranked teams in a row, how much energy will the Tide have here?
This game is essentially South Carolina’s season, and the Gamecocks will go all out here.
Baylor +4 at Cincinnati
Despite getting outgained by 50 yards, Cincinnati not only won but covered a big number on the road against this year’s Big XII doormat, Oklahoma State.
That tells you that Cincinnati’s defense is nothing to write home about, giving up over 400 yards to lowly Oklahoma State. Nor is Baylor’s, considering they give up over 31 points per game. However, the Bears have played the tougher schedule, and Cincinnati has faced backup QBs (vs. UCF, at Oklahoma State) each of the last two weeks.
Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson leads the nation in passing yards (2,376) and is tied for the lead with 21 touchdowns.
At 1-6 ATS, Baylor is tied with five other teams for having the worst spread record in the nation, and yet they are taking money all week? Hmmm.
Michigan State +14.5 vs. Michigan
For the 118th time, these in-state rivals meet up in the Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy.
Michigan, despite being without RB Justice Haynes (who may miss again this week), is off its most impressive performance of the season with a dominant 24-7 victory over Washington.
On the other hand, Michigan State has now lost four in a row and are 0-4 in Big Ten play. However, Spartans QB Aidan Chiles, benched in each of the last two weeks (partially due to injury, partially due to ineffectiveness), played well at No. 3 Indiana, going 27-for-33 for 243 yards and running for another 48 net yards, which included a 64-yard scamper.
The Wolverines still have a young QB and Bryce Underwood is just 1-2 on the road, so it is a big ask to cover this large number in a rivalry game, even against a struggling team.
Best of the Rest
Florida Atlantic +14.5 at Navy
FAU was blown out by South Florida last week, while Navy had a bye week.
Navy is one of only six teams (Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia Tech, and BYU are the others) that remain undefeated in FBS. However, the Midshipmen have played one of the easiest schedules in FBS (VMI, UAB, at Tulsa, Rice, Air Force, and at Temple). The meat of the schedule starts next week at North Texas, followed by a trip to Notre Dame, vs. South Florida, and then at Memphis.
This could be a bit of a lookahead against a team that runs one of the nation’s faster tempos that can throw it against Navy (UAB threw 321 on them earlier in the year).
Boston College +26.5 at Louisville
Louisville is off the big upset at No. 2 Miami last Friday night. BC, on the other hand, is winless in ACC play and also off a home loss by double-digits to Northeast rival UConn.
The Cardinals finally got a ranking by their name as they are No. 19 this week, but sometimes teams can let down after finally getting that national respect in the polls. Louisville will not be in danger of losing here but could be a bit sloppy.
LSU +3 (-120) vs. Texas A&M
Some of the Tiger fans are openly expressing their discontent with Brian Kelly after LSU’s first loss to Vanderbilt since 1990. However, keep in mind that LSU is 19-1 SU in home night games under Kelly.
The Aggies have been a bit of an overachiever this season. QB Marcel Reed has emerged as a dark horse Heisman candidate, but Texas A&M’s defense gave up 527 yards and 42 points at Arkansas last week.
Kentucky +9.5 vs. Tennessee
Texas is a top 10 defense nationally and Kentucky almost put 400 yards on them last week. Plus, the Wildcats’ defense held Texas to just 179 yards and outgained the Longhorns 395-179. Unfortunately, they lost 16-13 in OT. Kentucky should not be deflated here in what they consider to be a huge rivalry game.
Houston +7 at Arizona State
Fade the field storm? That is what we do here with Arizona State after upsetting Texas Tech (granted without QB Behren Morton) last week. Texas Tech (with Morton) trounced Houston 35-11 earlier this season for the Cougars’ only defeat.
ASU star wide receiver Jordyn Tyson is also out this week with a hamstring injury.
Willie Fritz’s club at 6-1 is still unranked and fighting for respect.
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