Week 8 College Football: Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston State

After sharing the Tuesday night spotlight with the Sun Belt, Conference USA is back to a monopoly on Wednesday night with a couple of games on the docket. Western Kentucky and Sam Houston State is definitely the higher-profile of the two, as that game draws ESPN2 billing, while FIU vs. UTEP will be featured on CBS Sports Network.

If nothing else, these two games are lined more competitively than Tuesday’s and also what we saw last week with the weeknight games, so hopefully we get treated to a little bit of drama.

 

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For all of this week’s college football insights, refer to our College Football Week 8 Hub.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Sam Houston State Bearkats (-3, 55.5)

7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Many of us in the betting community felt like Liberty wouldn’t have significant challengers in the conference this season. This is all of the sudden a huge game, as both Western Kentucky and Sam Houston are 2-0 in league action. Liberty plays both of them later in the season, as well as Jacksonville State, who is off this week to prep for MTSU next Wednesday.

Western Kentucky’s losses are a 63-0 beating at the hands of Alabama and a one-point loss at Boston College in which the Hilltoppers led by two scores entering the fourth quarter. The Bearkats were crushed in Orlando by UCF, but are unblemished otherwise, including a frantic comeback win over Texas State a couple games ago.

Neither team has shined on offense. The Hilltoppers rank 69th in yards per play and Sam Houston is 92nd, with a difference of 0.3 YPP between the two. Keep in mind, though that WKU throws the ball a lot more than SHSU. The Bearkats have 150 pass attempts against 286 rushes. The Hilltoppers have 212 pass attempts against 198 rushes. 

Defensively the Bearkats have the edge, which is why they are favored. This is the 59th-ranked defense by YPP and WKU is 98th, but the Alabama offense had over nine yards per play against the Hilltoppers. They’ve allowed 5.34 YPP otherwise. Sam Houston gave up 7.5 to UCF and has allowed 4.7 to everybody else.

I do like Western Kentucky in this game and the reason why is the run defense. The Hilltoppers gave up over seven yards per carry to Alabama, but have allowed an average of 3.5 YPC to every other opponent and just 3.3 YPC in conference play. Sam Houston’s pass offense is not prolific nor efficient, as starter Hunter Watson has a 7/5 TD/INT ratio with a completion rate under 60% and he’s been sacked 14 times.

Western Kentucky is more balanced and I think they’re the better team, as I have them a half-point underdog that would be favored on a neutral field.

Pick: Western Kentucky +3

Other Wednesday Game

FIU Panthers (-6.5, 49) at UTEP Miners: You have to go back to 2019 to find the last time FIU was a road favorite and 2018 to find a situation when FIU was -6.5 or higher away from home. UTEP just seems to be that bad and FIU played well last week against Liberty. That said, as bad as UTEP is, these are some big expectations for FIU. The Panthers have lost to some lesser teams this season themselves.

I can’t really make a statistical case for UTEP here, as they’re behind badly in yards per play, yards per play differential, and basically any other metric. But I lean that way and 7 might get me there with my power ratings showing value on the home dog.

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