Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss
The middle game of Tuesday’s college football tripleheader is the New Orleans Bowl featuring Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss. These teams used to be together in Conference USA, but as realignment came together, the Golden Eagles joined the Sun Belt, leaving the Hilltoppers behind. Incredibly, due to the fact that time flies, these two teams haven’t shared a conference since 2021 and haven’t played since 2020. Western Kentucky is 4-0 head-to-head, a stat that doesn’t matter at all because these two programs look nothing like they did when they last played.
What does matter is that we don’t have a ton of opt-outs or transfer portal considerations in this game. The biggest thing we do have is that Southern Miss has an interim head coach in OC Blake Anderson, as Charles Huff spent one year in Hattiesburg and then moved on to Memphis. The former Marshall coach brought a big chunk of his roster from Huntington to Hattiesburg and now has leveled up again.
Odds from Circa Sports as of December 20, 11:00 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
New Orleans Bowl: Western Kentucky (-2.5, 57.5) vs. Southern Miss
Tuesday, Dec. 23, 5:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
All three bowl games are on ESPN for Tuesday, with this middle matchup probably the least heralded of the three. But, don’t tell that to these two teams. After having pretty good seasons at 8-4 and 7-5, respectively, portal poachers haven’t really come hunting, as Western Kentucky has a couple of players and Southern Miss has one of note in safety Corey Myrick. It is nice to see a lot of players committed to their teams in this one.
Huff leaving could have a negative impact on the Golden Eagles, especially because so many players had such strong ties to him when they came along with him from Marshall. Things will be fairly constant with Anderson, who was a head coach at Arkansas State and Utah State, taking over. He’s certainly a guy with experience in keeping teams focused during the long layoff prior to a bowl game and he’s already been named as the new head coach.
Statistically, these two teams were pretty similar, with Western Kentucky at 5.82 yards per play and Southern Miss at 5.77. The Golden Eagles were much better on defense, allowing 5.37 YPP compared to 5.70 for WKU. For a team that played the 139th-ranked strength of schedule per Sagarin, you would have really liked to see the Hilltoppers grade better in these two areas, especially on defense.
The Golden Eagles weren’t tested a ton either, playing the 113th-ranked SOS. Even with that, they only ran for 3.8 yards per carry and their two main ball carriers, Jeffery Pittman and Matt Jones, had 4.4 and 4.0 yards per carry, respectively. Incredibly, on 146 carries, Pittman’s longest rush was just 25 yards and Jones’ longest rush was just 17 yards. The Golden Eagles didn’t have a running play longer than 27 yards. That helps Western Kentucky’s defense schematically, a big deal because they were 126th in the nation in yards per carry allowed.
Even with teams prepping for the pass, Braylon Braxton had a great season. He had a 23/7 TD/INT ratio and completed over 65% of his passes with nearly 2,800 yards during the regular season. In a game where it might be as simple as the better QB emerging victorious, Braxton does seem more trustworthy than Western Kentucky freshman Rodney Tisdale Jr. Tisdale only had a 9/6 TD/INT ratio after taking over from Maverick McIvor, who came from Abilene Christian alongside OC Rick Bowie.
The Hilltoppers were much more explosive in the running game and more balanced than usual with 381 carries and 455 pass attempts. Marvis Parrish led the team with 99 carries and 511 yards, but somehow had zero touchdowns, while La’Vell Wright had 10 of the 20 rushing scores on 80 carries with a 5.8 average. The Golden Eagles were the better defense against the run and will need to be stout here.
Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss New Orleans Bowl Prediction
With Huff out of the picture and a roster that had his fingerprints all over it, it is fair to wonder how invested the Golden Eagles will be in this one. Even though Anderson has already been named the head coach, most of these guys were already with the program or came with Huff. The extra bowl practices for Tyson Helton with his freshman QB in Tisdale may prove valuable. Indoors on the fast track at Caesars Superdome, with Braxton playing his last college football game except for the Hula Bowl, offense may be the flavor of the day.
Pick: Over 57.5
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