Western Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan
Well, friends. Tuesday is a bittersweet day in the football world. Our final two MACtion games of the season feature Western Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan and Bowling Green vs. UMass. Those two games also represent the end of 49 straight days with a football game, as Wednesday will be the first day without something on the gridiron since October 7. That’s obviously the bitter part.
The sweet part is that we’ve got a good weekend of college football ahead and a much higher level of play than what we get in the MAC. But, we should all take a moment and thank the conference for its service, as the Mid-American Conference and Conference USA have performed admirably during this stretch of daily football.
Odds from Circa Sports as of November 24, 1:00 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 14 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Western Michigan (-7.5, 46.5) at Eastern Michigan
7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
This will actually be the final game of the 49-day run, as BG and UMass play at 4:30 p.m. ET, as the Minutemen can’t wait to get their season over with. This Directional Michigan rivalry game actually has a lot of importance. The Broncos have already retained the Michigan MAC Trophy for the third straight season and ninth time in the last 12 years. But, they can also guarantee themselves a spot in Detroit for the MAC Championship Game with a win here.
Tiebreakers would come into play with a loss, but if the Broncos do hold up as north of a TD favorite, they will be the only 7-1 team in the conference and will wait to see who they play. Eastern Michigan is only playing spoiler here, as the best they can do is 5-7 and that won’t be enough to make a bowl game.
This is not like the Western Michigan teams we saw with Zach Terrell, Jon Wassink, or Kaleb Eleby in recent seasons. In fact, far, far from it. Broc Lowry has only thrown for 1,472 yards, but he does have a 7/2 TD/INT ratio and has 12 touchdowns as the team’s leading rusher with 783 yards. Even Jalen Buckley has gotten it going lately with 133 yards last week against Northern Illinois and at least 4.5 yards per carry in each of the last four games.
Where the Broncos really excel is on defense. They entered Week 14 tied for 20th in yards per play allowed. Eastern Michigan ranks 121st in that department, so that’s a little bit of an advantage for the kids from Kalamazoo. Eastern Michigan grades quite a bit better offensively from a YPP standpoint, but they also have 105 more pass attempts. Obviously you get bigger passing plays than running plays, so it’s really just a play distribution and game state thing, given that the Eagles have trailed a lot more.
The Broncos are even -2 in TO margin in conference action, as they’re -4 in fumbles, but they’ve still only lost once, a 26-17 defeat in Oxford against Miami. Eastern Michigan only has nine giveaways, but they also only have nine takeaways. They’ve only lost one fumble, but have also only recovered two of them. QB Noah Kim has completed 62% of his tosses with a 16/8 TD/INT ratio and has only taken 10 sacks. It’s that EMU’s defense hasn’t helped enough.
The Eagles haven’t been as bad in conference play with 5.5 yards per play allowed, a full two YPP better than their non-conference showing. The Eagles have actually only allowed 4.36 YPP to Bowling Green and Ball State in their last two victories.
The Broncos have relied heavily on the run of late, as Lowry only has 23 pass attempts and 14 completions in the last two games. I think this one will be a low-scoring affair, as EMU’s defensive numbers in conference play are better than their overall numbers and that it could be a damp, cool night to limit tempo and pass attempts
Western Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan Pick: Under 46.5
Other Tuesday Game
Bowling Green (-14.5, 45.5) at UMass: The Minutemen have some incentive this week, in that they’d love to not finish 0-12 for the season. Don’t expect a big crowd on a Tuesday afternoon with this 4:30 p.m. ET kick on ESPNU, especially with a winless team.
Bowling Green only has one conference win, but it was a huge one over rival Toledo and one that could loom large this weekend depending on how the tiebreakers fall. Since that game, the Falcons are 0-5 and haven’t scored more than 21 points in a game. There were some early signs of growth for Eddie George in his first season, but the best that the Falcons can do is 4-8.
I don’t have a bet here, as this looks like the Northern Illinois vs. UMass game in a lot of ways, where the Huskies had an offensive explosion and covered, but they’re better on defense and have a higher yards per carry number, so at least there were some ways to talk yourself into them. I don’t see that with Bowling Green.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 14 games on our Pro Picks Page.
