Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois
We are down to seven MACtion games for this college football season, as we have three on Tuesday, two on Wednesday, and two more next Tuesday. Hopefully you’ve enjoyed these games as much as you can, given that the quality of play is suspect, but the ability to bet makes any game a lot more interesting. That is true of Tuesday’s trio of tilts, with Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois as the game most on my radar, followed by Akron vs. Bowling Green and UMass vs. Ohio.
Let’s take a deeper dive into DeKalb, where NIU hosts WMU in a game that carries a lot of weight in the conference.
Odds from Circa Sports as of November 17, 1:30 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 13 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Western Michigan (-6, 39) at Northern Illinois
7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
This one has the highest TV billing, with Akron/BG on ESPNU and UMass/Ohio on CBS Sports Network, as all three games start at the same time. The Broncos hold the outright lead in the conference, with roadies at NIU and Eastern Michigan left on the schedule. With head-to-head, tiebreaking wins over Central Michigan, Ohio, and Toledo, Western Michigan is really set up nicely to make the conference championship game. In fact, a win here to improve to 6-1 in the conference would almost lock up a spot in Detroit in the MAC Title Game on December 5.
The Broncos lost to Miami (OH) and their three other losses this season have been Michigan State, North Texas (by 3), and Illinois. This has been a solid team throughout the season, even if their recent wins over CMU and Ohio were very close for comfort. How Western Michigan has won has been the story, as their defense ranks 22nd in yards per play allowed. Their offense, meanwhile, ranks just 124th in YPP.
There was a QB competition earlier this season between Broc Lowry and Brady Jones, but Lowry emerged early in the season and now has a 7/1 TD/INT ratio with a 64.7% completion rate and is the team’s leading rusher in carries, yards, and rushing touchdowns. The sophomore from Canfield, OH, just outside of Youngstown, has only had two games with over 200 passing yards and one game with over 100 rushing yards, but he’s taken great care of the football.
The Broncos have lost eight fumbles, but Northern Illinois only has three fumble recoveries on the season. The Huskies defense has been the star of the show for them as well, ranking 42nd in yards per play allowed. The offense, meanwhile, has been among the worst in the nation. Only Rice, running the option for the first year, New Mexico State, Ball State, Wisconsin, and UMass have fewer yards per play.
But, the Huskies may have found something in last week’s blowout win over the Minutemen. First-time starter Jalen Macon ran for 98 yards on just 12 carries and had 73 passing yards on three completions out of four attempts. Macon had three rushing scores, as the Huskies ran for 5.8 yards per carry. The 6-foot-5 Macon will get his second start here.
As crazy as it sounds to take an Over between these two teams, that’s what I’m doing here with Over 39. Shop around on this one, as Circa had 39 and the rest of the market had 38.5, but Macon injected some new life into the offense and we have two mobile QBs here who can make things happen and prevent negative plays.
Pick: Over 39
Other Tuesday Games
Akron vs. Bowling Green (-3.5, 47): I was all ready to take Bowling Green this week, but 3.5 is a little rich for my blood. The Zips just played their Super Bowl against Kent State and their season ends here, as they are on a bye next week. They’ve been ineligible for a bowl game all season thanks to poor academics. I have no interest in laying this price with BG, though, as they’re being outgained by over a yard per play in conference games.
If anything, Akron, even in a terrible spot after losing their rivalry game last week, might be the side. At least they had 530 yards and badly outgained Kent State in last week’s loss.
UMass at Ohio (-33, 51.5): On Monday’s recording of the College Football Betting Podcast, I referenced this note that Ohio hasn’t been favored by 30+ against a FBS team since 2000. UMass is probably the lowest-rated FBS team I’ve ever had in my power ratings. Northern Illinois dropped 45 points on the Minutemen. They had scored 69 points in their five previous MAC games combined.
Ohio rarely gets a chance to run it up on somebody, so maybe they will here on Senior Night. It’d be Ohio or nothing in this game, but likely nothing.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 13 games on our Pro Picks Page.
