The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, March 31, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

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In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this “super” majority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE, PLAY ARIZONA, PLAY SAN DIEGO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of BETS landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, NY YANKEES,

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in BOS-SEA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE NY METS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and an ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA, PLAY TORONTO, PLAY MINNESOTA, PLAY DETROIT, PLAY CLEVELAND, PLAY BOSTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE RL, CLEVELAND RL, ARIZONA RL, LA DODGERS RL

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Better-rated bullpen teams that are not favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the last regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment.
System Matches: ATLANTA, CINCINNATI, MIAMI, MILWAUKEE, SAN FRANCISCO, LA DODGERS, BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, MINNESOTA, NY YANKEES, DETROIT, CLEVELAND, SEATTLE, CHICAGO CUBS

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A mid-2023 season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle fell in the last couple of weeks as some of the big favorites no longer had any playoff stakes on the line but still settled at +4.4%. So far for the 2024 season, they are 3-3 for -3.22 units.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA (-218 vs COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle was 5-3 in the final week and again lost –2.4 units. This situation was rare, only coming up about 25 times per month, but should have been taken advantage of when it arose. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season steadied at an amazing -56.6%! By fading these teams, a season-long backer of this system would have netted about +70 units of profit! This season these big favorites are 0-2 for -4.30 units.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA (-218 vs COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system last season arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.4%. So far for the 2024 season, they are 4-2 for +2.40 units.
System Matches: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+114 at NYM), PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (+114 at SD), PLAY TAMPA BAY (+100 vs TOR), PLAY NY YANKEES (-102 at HOU), PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+114 at TEX)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 241-249 for -27.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.6% (this 2024 season, they are 2-1 for +0.68 units). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished last regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE TEXAS (-135 vs CHC), 3-games – FADE PITTSBURGH (+110 at MIA)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.”
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-102 at HOU), PLAY CLEVELAND (-125 at OAK)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The R.O.I. for the season closed at 11.2%!
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (-130 vs PIT)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent.
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 312-289 (51.9%) for +36.68 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 6.1%.
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND (+105 vs CLE), PLAY PHILADELPHIA (+114 vs ATL)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game.
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1440-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -165.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -5.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-148 vs LAA), ATLANTA (-135 at PHI), CLEVELAND (-125 at OAK), PITTSBURGH (+110 at MIA), TEXAS (-135 vs CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (+114 at SD), COLORADO (+180 at AZ)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing.
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1284-1687 (43.2%) for -176.56 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (-120 at TB), FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+114 at TEX)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing.
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2904-2522 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -360 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-135 vs. MIL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+124 vs. DET), BALTIMORE (-148 vs. LAA), TAMPA BAY (+100 vs. TOR), CINCINNATI (-175 vs. WSH), TEXAS (-135 vs. CHC), SAN DIEGO (-135 vs. SF), LA DODGERS (-180 vs. STL)

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long.
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 815-697 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +23.86 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 1.6%.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-118 vs NYY)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit.
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 412-344 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +25.52 units, for an R.O.I. of 3.4%.
System Matches: PLAY SEATTLE (-155 vs BOS)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts.
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 243-199 (55%) for +41.79 units and an R.O.I. of 9.5% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-135 vs. MIL), PLAY PHILADELPHIA (+114 vs. ATL), PLAY MIAMI (-130 vs. PIT)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS YET

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA +114 (+17 diff), WASHINGTON +150 (+16 diff), COLORADO +180 (+30 diff), ST LOUIS +150 (+16 diff), TAMPA BAY +100 (+40 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +124 (+22 diff), OAKLAND +105 (+18 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (13 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BALTIMORE -148 (+13 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOS-SEA OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WSH-CIN UNDER 10 (-1.1), COL-AZ UNDER 9.5 (-1.1), LAA-BAL UNDER 9 (-0.8), MIN-KC UNDER 9 (-0.5), CHC-TEX UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)

MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(951) ATLANTA (2-0) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (0-2)
Trend: Philadelphia is 13-4 (+9.40 units) in line range -115 to +115, with starter Ranger Suarez in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (+114 vs ATL)

(957) MILWAUKEE (2-0) at (958) NEW YORK-NL (0-2)
Trend: Milwaukee was 12-2 for +11.10 units in the -120 to +135 line range with Colin Rea starting last season
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+114 at NYM)

(959) COLORADO (1-2) at (960) ARIZONA (2-1)
Trend: Arizona was 6-3 (+3.49 units) in day games with start by Brandon Pfaadt last season
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA (-218 vs COL)

(965) LOS ANGELES-AL (0-2) at (966) BALTIMORE (2-0)
Trend: Reid Detmers is 4-14 (-10.63 units) on the road in the -160 to +130 line range
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+124 at BAL)

Trend: Baltimore is 0-7 (-7.00 units) all-time against teams with a 62.5% or higher win percentage with starter Tyler Wells
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-148 vs LAA)

(967) TORONTO (1-2) at (968) TAMPA BAY (2-1)
Trend: Toronto was 2-7 (-10.74 units) vs. AL East foes last season with Kevin Gausman
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-120 at TB)

(969) MINNESOTA (2-0) at (970) KANSAS CITY (0-2)
Trend: Minnesota is 3-8 (-6.00 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-125 at KC)

Trend: Kansas City is 11-4 (+8.35 units) in home day games with starter Brady Singer in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+105 vs MIN)

(973) DETROIT (2-0) at (974) CHICAGO-AL (0-2)
Trend: Jack Flaherty has taken care of business against lesser opponents, going 22-6 (+8.92 units) against teams with a 45% or lower win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-148 at CWS)

(977) BOSTON (1-2) at (978) SEATTLE (2-1)
Trend: Seattle was 1-6 (-5.75 units) vs. AL East teams last season with Bryce Miller starting
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (-155 vs BOS)

(979) CHICAGO-NL (0-2) at (980) TEXAS (2-0)
Trend: Texas is 8-1 (+7.10 units) in home day games with Jon Gray in the last two seasons

System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-135 vs CHC)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM SPECIFIC MOMENTUM TRENDS TODAY

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