The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, April 1, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, PHOENIX

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA, BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, DETROIT

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE ML, MEMPHIS ML, ATLANTA ML, PHOENIX ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO ML, INDIANA ML, BOSTON ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much”, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-IND, ATL-CHI, PHX-NOP

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in POR-ORL, PLAY OVER in BOS-CHA, PLAY OVER in MEM-DET

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing an A2H b2b game were 32-26 SU and 31-27 ATS (53.4%) hosting teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
4/1: CHICAGO vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (-2 vs ATL)

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 32-31 SU and 36-27 ATS (57.1%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game in the last two seasons.
4/1: CHARLOTTE vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+17 vs BOS)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 57-50 SU and 57-48-2 ATS (54.3%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game over the last two seasons.
4/1: CHARLOTTE vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+17 vs BOS)

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 28-9 SU and 23-13-1 ATS (63.9%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
4/1: INDIANA vs. Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-12.5 vs BKN)

* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 19-14 SU and 20-13  ATS (60.6%) last season hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
4/1: CHARLOTTE vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+17 vs BOS)

* Under the total was 95-64-1 (59.7%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
4/1: Under the total in CHARLOTTE-BOSTON
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 219)

* Over the total was 80-53 (60.2%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
4/1: Over the total in CHARLOTTE-BOSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 219)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

ATLANTA is 6-13 SU and 4-15 ATS (21.1%) versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 95-99.5.
4/1 at Chicago
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+2 at CHI)

ATLANTA is 20-24 SU and 15-29 ATS (34.1%) when playing on a full day’s rest this season
4/1 at Chicago
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+2 at CHI)

ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One DayR est scheduling scenario this season, going 31-12 SU and ATS (72.1%).
4/1 vs. Portland
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-16 vs POR)

PHOENIX is 9-5-1 Over the total (64.3%) when playing in the second of consecutive games against non-divisional conference opponents in the 2023-24 season.
4/1 at New Orleans
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in PHX-NOP (o/u at 223.5)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* ATLANTA was 34-14 Over the total in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario in the last two seasons
4/1: Over the total in CHICAGO-ATLANTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in ATL-CHI (o/u at 221.5)

* CHARLOTTE is 28-15 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons
4/1: Under the total in BOSTON-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in BOS-CHA (o/u at 219)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 89-57 SU and 86-57-3 ATS (60.1%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY MEMPHIS (+2 at DET)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 157-30 SU but just 79-105-3 ATS (42.9%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE ORLANDO (-16 vs POR)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 80-64 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 149-123 (54.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 199-142 (58.4%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in POR-ORL (o/u at 210.5), PLAY OVER in BKN-IND (o/u at 227), PLAY OVER in BOS-CHA (o/u at 219)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 221-237 SU and 204-249-5 ATS (45%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE ORLANDO (-16 vs. POR), FADE CHICAGO (-2 vs. ATL)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 229-224 SU and 204-236-11 ATS (46.4%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE ORLANDO (-16 vs POR), FADE CHARLOTTE (+17 vs BOS)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 184-229 ATS (44.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 24-105 SU and 54-72-3 ATS (42.9%).
System Matches: FADE PORTLAND (+16 at ORL)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX +1.5 (+1.7), 2. BROOKLYN +12.5 (+1.6), 3(tie). PORTLAND +16 (+0.2) and CHARLOTTE +17 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO -2 (+2.5), 2. DETROIT -2 (+2.1)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +12.5 (+3.3), 2. PHOENIX +1.5 (+2.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -2 (+2.7), 2. CHICAGO -2 (+1.1), 3. BOSTON -17 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-NOP OVER 223.5 (+0.5), 2. BOS-CHA OVER 219 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-DET UNDER 216 (-4.9), 2. POR-ORL UNDER 210.5 (-2.1), 3. ATL-CHI UNDER 221.5 (-0.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +17 (+2.9), 2. PHOENIX +1.5 (+2.7), 3. BROOKLYN +12.5 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO -2 (+2.0), 2. DETROIT -2 (+1.1), 3.

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOS-CHA OVER 219 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-DET UNDER 216 (-4.7), 2. ATL-CHI UNDER 221.5 (-4.3), 3. POR-ORL UNDER 210.5 (-2.1)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(559) ATLANTA at (560) CHICAGO
* CHICAGO is on an 8-2 ATS surge versus Atlanta
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS

(555) BOSTON at (556) CHARLOTTE
* BOSTON is 22-7-1 ATS versus Charlotte since 2015
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

(553) BROOKLYN at (554) INDIANA
* INDIANA is on a 6-1-1 ATS run versus Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

(557) MEMPHIS at (558) DETROIT
* MEMPHIS is 8-1 ATS in the last nine at Detroit
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

(561) PHOENIX at (562) NEW ORLEANS
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the PHO-NOP series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(551) PORTLAND at (552) ORLANDO
* Road teams have won the last five ATS in the POR-ORL series
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS

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