Augusta National chewed up and spit out most of the field on Thursday, but the course was forgiving and even gentle on Friday. Only 16 players finished under par in Round 1. In Round 2, 20 players finished with 69 or better on the Par 72 track. Players seemed concerned on Thursday that the afternoon greens were too hard and too fast and it would only get worse as the tournament wore on, but that was seemingly not the case at all. Numbers were out there to be posted and a lot of guys posted them, including Rory McIlroy, who had another day as spectacular as the azaleas in spring with a 7-under 65 to take a solo lead by six shots following the lowest round in the field.
McIlroy shared the lead after 18 holes with Sam Burns at 5-under, and Burns continued his solid showing with a 1-under 71, but that left him in a tie for second with Patrick Reed, six shots behind McIlroy. As we wrote about yesterday, three players in the history of this prestigious tournament have won back-to-back times – Jack Nicklaus (1965-66), Sir Nick Faldo (1989-90), and Tiger Woods (2001-02). Rory is halfway to doing that and he’s got quite a cushion going into moving day on Saturday. Shout-out to Tyrrell Hatton, whose 66 was the best round of the day until Rory birdied the last four holes and six of the last seven. Hatton is tied for seventh with five other players at 4-under, while Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose, and Shane Lowry are T-4th at 5-under.
By no means should we see U.S. Open-level carnage in Round 3, but the course should play tougher with the Saturday pin locations and probably not as generous of a watering schedule prior to the first group on the tee at 9:30 a.m. ET.
VSiN’s golf experts offered their second-round observations and third-round predictions . . .
Wes Reynolds
The 2026 Masters was still in doubt until Rory McIlroy birdied six of his last seven holes to post 12-under and take a six-stroke lead into the weekend. That lead is the biggest 36-hole lead in Masters history.
McIlroy (-275 to win) still leads the field for Driving Distance while ranking 90th of 91 players for Driving Accuracy (only Davis Riley, who finished last in the field at +18, ranks worse).
The defending Masters champion also ranks 2nd in the field for Strokes Gained: Around The Green and 3rd for Strokes Gained: Approach.
Patrick Reed and Sam Burns are the leader’s closest pursuers at -6. A trio of Rory’s European Ryder Cup teammates – Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, and Shane Lowry are at -5.
While it is difficult to see anyone toppling McIlroy this weekend, there are other markets down the board that could still have some value.
Ludvig Åberg was widely tipped to win the event, but at 12 strokes back, the Swede is not going to win his first major here. He is currently four strokes back of Norwegian Kristoffer Reitan, who is making his Masters debut and just his third career major championship appearance. Åberg is currently around +150 for the Low Nordic market.
Cameron Young was +4 after seven holes yesterday but has gone -8 in his last 31 holes and currently sits -4 for the tournament. At 5/1 he is the third choice behind Patrick Reed and Sam Burns for the Low American market. Other than Rory, no one has played better over that period, so THE PLAYERS Champion is certainly worth a flier.
Matt Youmans
It looks like a Rory runaway over the weekend at Augusta. McIlroy leads by six strokes — the largest 36-hole lead in Masters history — and 32 of the past 35 winners of this tournament were within four shots of the lead after two rounds. While there is a chance this gets interesting, and I suspect it still will get very interesting at some point Saturday or Sunday, McIlroy certainly deserves his status as a strong odds-on favorite (-250) at DraftKings.
McIlroy closed at 15-1 odds at Circa Sports, where golf oddsmaker Sam Cooney said, “Rory winning would be an amazing result for us.” In other words, it would not be amazing for those of us who played Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm and several long shots on the futures board.
“This tournament is over,” Mitch Moss declared on “Follow the Money” when McIlroy chipped in from 30 yards out for birdie on the 17th hole, which was moments after Rory hit a drive that appeared headed out of bounds before he caught a fortunate break — and that sequence sums up his first rounds. Moss later admitted he doesn’t really think the tournament is over.
“I just hope someone makes a run and it’s close,” Boomer’s sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich said. “I don’t want to see a blowout, and I think it will get close.”
McIlroy’s play has been phenomenal, yet he also has been extremely lucky. He can’t consistently find fairways with an erratic driver and somehow saves par or pulls miracle birdies out of his back pocket. He has a history of blowing leads, so this is not done yet.
When there’s a situation with a big favorite, you get longer odds down the board, and I’ll say Justin Rose (22-1) has the best shot to catch McIlroy from behind. Don’t count out Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Shane Lowry, Cameron Young and — hate to say it — Patrick Reed.
Scheffler was a major disappointment Friday on the back nine. The two-time Masters winner is 62-1 to win and +300 to finish top five. I’ll look for Scheffler to rally and bet Under 70.5 for his Saturday round, but he’s got no shot to win and that’s surprising.
Kelley Bydlon
Another special round at Augusta for Rory McIlroy and he has positioned himself very well heading into the weekend to take home his second green jacket in as many years. He’ll take a six-shot lead into Saturday and is a big favorite to win it. Aaaand I have no interest in betting against him at this point. The worst part of his game so far has been his driver, and that’s usually his best club, so he might even play better this weekend.
Luckily for me, the second round allowed some of my guys that I have bigger finishing position bets to work their way up the leaderboard. I do not think I will be adding to any of those heading into the weekend, however I do find Scottie Scheffler live top 10 (+102) pretty attractive as well as top 10 on Xander Schauffele (+102).
I will likely have some third round matchup I will add later tonight or tomorrow morning on our Golf Betting Picks page.
Matt Brown
Coming soon.
