3M Open, Best Bets and Golf Odds:
After Rory McIlroy (+550) repeated at the Masters in April, the 2026 season became a year of the longer shots at major championships. First, it was Aaron Rai at 125-1 winning the PGA Championship at Aronimink. Next, it was Wyndham Clark at 100-1 winning the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills. Then, on Sunday, Ryan Fox at 200-1 made birdie on the 72nd hole to win The Open Championship at Royal Birkdale.
Fox, a two-time PGA Tour and four-time DP World Tour winner, had just two top-10 finishes in 2026 but led the field for Strokes Gained: Putting and birdied four of his last six holes to eclipse Cameron Young, who had finished his round two and a half hours earlier, by one stroke and finished 10 under par.
10 under was the winning score at Royal Birkdale despite yielding three rounds of 62 (tying the lowest ever round in a major), including one by Fox, who carded his 62 in Saturday’s third round.
Sam Burns carded his 62 on Friday but had to settle for third after finishing runner-up last month at the U.S. Open.
Tommy Fleetwood, our closest finisher, and Scottie Scheffler settled for T-4 despite the World No. 1 leading the field for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green. Scheffler finished fourth or better in three of the four majors this season after winning both the PGA Championship and The Open Championship in 2025.
This week, Scheffler, unlike many of the game’s current elite, is not resting as he is in the field for the 3M Open in the Twin Cities for the first time. The 3M is one of the events lodged between The Open and the FedExCup Playoffs next month, so the field quality is a bit down, which makes Scheffler a shorter favorite than normal, and he is as low as +250 to win this week.
Defending champion Kurt Kitayama, whom we bagged a winner with at 40-1 here last year, is 22-1 for his title defense.
Maverick McNealy (25-1) was third here two years ago, and Pierceson Coody (45-1) was third here last year.
Former World No. 1 Amateur Jackson Koivun (28-1) makes his third start as a professional this week.
At 30-1 are Keith Mitchell and Hideki Matsuyama, while Jake Knapp (33-1) and Tom Kim (35-1), coming back stateside with a Scottish Open trophy, slot in just behind.
Aside from Kitayama, other former 3M champions in this week’s field include Tony Finau (60-1), Lee Hodges (100-1) and Cameron Champ (300-1).
The Field
144 players are in this week’s 3M Open field playing for an $8.8 million purse. The winner receives 500 FedExCup points and a two-year PGA Tour exemption. The top 65 and ties make the weekend cut.
Aside from Scheffler, most of the tour’s top players are off this week, but the field is full of players positioning themselves to make the FedExCup Playoffs or to keep their PGA Tour playing status.
The Course
TPC Twin Cities is in Blaine, which is 13 miles north of Minneapolis and 20 miles from St. Paul. The track was designed in 2000 by Arnold Palmer with consultation from Tom Lehman. Native Minnesotan PGA Tour players Lehman and Tim Herron, along with Steve Wenzloff, PGA Tour VP of Design Services, renovated the layout in 2018. TPC Twin Cities is part of the Tournament Players Club group of courses owned by the PGA Tour.
The course will be played as a par-71 of 7,431 yards. It is a relatively easy and gettable parklands design with three shorter and drivable par-4s that longer hitters can reach. With three par-5s measuring 594 yards (6th), 593 yards (12th) and 596 yards (18th) in length, the longest holes on the course show some resistance here.
The closing 18th is arguably one of the best finishing holes on tour. The hole doglegs with water on the right throughout, which is in play on both the tee shot and approach if players want to get aggressive with a 220+ yard approach over water to reach in two. Matthew Wolff won in climactic fashion at the inaugural 2019 3M Open, responding to Bryson DeChambeau’s eagle on 18 with an eagle of his own from just off the fringe.
There are 27 water hazards in play over 13 holes (third most of the PGA Tour), so it resembles a bit of a Florida-type layout. While it is a relatively easy course, there is danger lurking with all of the water.
In addition, there are 72 bunkers, which were rebuilt and repaired after a heavy storm two years ago. The fairways (35 yards average width) are constructed of Bentgrass and they will play hard and fast with plenty of rollout. The rough can be a pesky four-inch Bluegrass/Fescue mix. The greens are large (6,500 square feet) and average speed (12.5 stimpmeter) Pure Bentgrass.
PGATOUR.com provides a brief flyover look at TPC Twin Cities.
Here is the official scorecard of TPC Twin Cities courtesy of PGATOUR.com:
In 2019, tournament founder Hollis Cavner gave an honest description of how they want the 3M Open to play, quoted as saying, “We want birdies and train wrecks, and we don’t want to be the hardest golf course on the tour.”
TPC Twin Cities is an Arnold Palmer original design, so here are some other Palmer designs played on the PGA Tour:
- PGA West: Palmer Private — 2008-2015 Career Builder Challenge
- Bay Hill Country Club — Arnold Palmer Invitational
- TPC Boston — Dell Technologies Championship
- Isleworth Golf & Country Club — 2014 Hero World Challenge
- Albany — 2015-2018 Hero World Challenge
Non-Palmer designs that are more direct correlations to TPC Twin Cities include TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic of New Orleans), TPC Deere Run (John Deere Classic), Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage Classic), TPC Summerlin (Shriners Hospitals Open), TPC San Antonio (Valero Texas Open), TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), PGA National (Honda Classic) and PGA West Stadium Course (The American Express).
Weather
The Twin Cities have received very little rain in the lead-up to this event, so the fairways should be fast and have some roll.
The AccuWeather forecast indicates that the winds will pick up on the weekend and there is a chance of rain as well. Nevertheless, the course should be firm and fast, and the greens will be watered to be receptive.
3M Open Recent History
2025: Kurt Kitayama (-23/261); 40-1
2024: Jhonattan Vegas (-17/264); 80-1
2023: Lee Hodges (-24/260); 80-1
2022: Tony Finau (-17/267); 14-1
2021: Cameron Champ (-15/269); 150-1
2020: Michael Thompson (-19/265); 125-1
2019: Matthew Wolff (-21/263); 175-1
Statistical Analysis
Five of the seven 3M Open winners ranked fourth or better for Strokes Gained: Approach during their winning weeks and two of the last three (Kitayama and Hodges) led the field in the category.
Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Tom Kim 0.656
- Austin Smotherman 0.611
- Kurt Kitayama 0.600
- Joel Dahmen 0.553
- Scottie Scheffler 0.545
- Johnny Keefer 0.508
- Jackson Suber 0.455
- John Parry 0.425
- Max McGreevy 0.420
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.398
- Austin Eckroat 0.386
- Zach Bauchou 0.383
- Corey Conners 0.382
- Hideki Matsuyama 0.370
- Jake Knapp 0.355
- Jordan Smith 0.354
- William Mouw 0.351
- Zecheng Dou 0.346
- Davis Thompson 0.336
- Tom Hoge 0.331
Although these fairways have wide landing areas, there are enough water hazards that make accuracy important. If players are confident in finding fairways, then they can rip it with the driver off the tee and be in better position to hit the greens, which are fairly easy to hit. Basically, TPC Twin Cities is a ball strikers paradise. Ball Striking is calculated using Total Driving (Distance Rank + Accuracy Rank) + Greens In Regulation Rank.
Ball striking (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Scottie Scheffer 2 (1 Total Driving Rank + 1 GIR Rank)
- Jordan Smith 12 (2 + 10)
- Kurt Kitayama 14 (6 + 8)
- Johnny Keefer 24 (22 + 2)
- Keita Nakajima 49 (45 + 4)
- William Mouw 46 (9 + 37)
- Doug Ghim 58 (30 + 28)
- Haotong Li 58 (35 + 23)
- Keith Mitchell 60 (44 + 16)
- Sam Stevens 62 (19 + 43)
- Michael Brennan 67 (7 + 60)
- Taylor Pendrith 74 (55 + 19)
- Joel Dahmen 76 (67 + 9)
- John VanDerLaan 76 (35 + 41)
- Austin Smotherman 77 (51 + 26)
- Corey Conners 81 (31 + 50)
- Tom Kim 81 (48 + 33)
- Max McGreevy 81 (60 + 21)
- Neal Shipley 82 (4 + 78)
- Patrick Fishburn 85 (74 + 11)
Jake Knapp and Pierceson Coody both shared third here and ranked first and third, respectively, for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee during last year’s event.
Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Michael Brennan 0.767
- Neal Shipley 0.670
- Scottie Scheffler 0.652
- Gary Woodland 0.634
- Doug Ghim 0.618
- Keith Mitchell 0.611
- Aldrich Potgieter 0.593
- Johnny Keefer 0.589
- Jimmy Stanger 0.525
- Jordan Smith 0.479
- Taylor Moore 0.444
- Pierceson Coody 0.428
- Haotong Li 0.414
- Rico Hoey 0.407
- Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 0.401
- Alejandro Tosti 0.332
- Sam Stevens 0.317
- Kurt Kitayama 0.309
- Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.306
- Austin Smotherman 0.303
As stated above, the tournament founder wants birdies, and he gets plenty of them in this event.
Birdie Or Better Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Scottie Scheffler 26.61%
- Kevin Yu 24.60
- Keith Mitchell 24.21
- Jake Knapp 23.99
- Tony Finau 23.76
- Pierceson Coody 23.55
- Maverick McNealy 23.44
- Stephan Jaeger 23.41
- Sudarshan Yellamaraju 23.38
- Jackson Suber 23.31
- Tom Hoge 23.30
- Austin Eckroat 23.23
- Doug Ghim 23.02
- Mac Meissner 22.96
- David Lipsky 22.71
- Aldrich Potgieter 22.64
- Zach Bauchou 22.59
- Erik van Rooyen 22.58
- Lee Hodges 22.47
- Taylor Pendrith 22.31
While there are plenty of birdies, there are also plenty of trainwrecks like the tournament founder wanted because of the large amount of water on the course and big numbers can be carded here.
Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Scottie Scheffler 10.30%
- Beau Hossler 12.13
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 12.72
- A.J. Ewart 12.87
- Tom Kim 13.02
- Doug Ghim 13.04
- Mackenzie Hughes 13.13
- Steven Fisk 13.26
- Mac Meissner 13.61
- Zach Bauchou 13.70
- Zecheng Dou 13.89
- Seamus Power 13.96
- Davis Chatfield 14.02
- Keita Nakajima 14.04
- Davis Thompson 14.05
- Joel Dahmen 14.11
- John Parry 14.16
- Jason Day 14.21
- Takumi Kanaya 14.23
- Kurt Kitayama 14.25
- Chad Ramey 14.27
- Stephan Jaeger 14.29
The Bentgrass greens at TPC Twin Cities are considered to be some of the smoothest putting surfaces on the PGA Tour.
Strokes Gained: Putting — Bentgrass Greens — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)
- A.J. Ewart 1.045
- Pierceson Coody 0.852
- Denny McCarthy 0.713
- Pontus Nyholm 0.625
- Haotong Li 0.562
- Kris Ventura 0.553
- John VanDerLaan 0.547
- Brandt Snedeker 0.535
- Thorbjorn Olesen 0.527
- Brian Campbell 0.526
- Beau Hossler 0.519
- Jeremy Paul 0.508
- Keita Nakajima 0.474
- Vince Whaley 0.460
- Paul Peterson 0.448
- Maverick McNealy 0.413
- Andrew Putnam 0.399
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.393
- Jason Day 0.376
- Mackenzie Hughes 0.372
- Adam Hadwin 0.364
- Luke Clanton 0.363
- Justin Lower 0.362
Selections
This week, having Scottie Scheffler being such a clear favorite and seemingly due to get another win, dabbling in the “Winner Without Scheffler” market is the most practical way to go about playing the outright board.
Doug Ghim (38-1, DraftKings)
Bettors can tend to overrate a good showing in a major from the preceding week, especially the week after The Open. In the last six years of the 3M Open being after The Open, four of the last six winners here did not even play in the major the week prior.
Ghim tried to earn a spot in The Open by playing the Scottish Open two weeks ago. He missed the cut, but that was his first time not making the weekend since late March in Houston.
In between those missed cuts are finishes of 30th, sixth, 19th, 31st, 28th, 15th and sixth, so he has been playing consistently good golf.
He is currently 95th in the FedExCup points and has three events to climb into that top 70 to make the playoffs.
Ben James (39-1, DraftKings)
While Jackson Koivun is rightfully getting a ton of hype as a recent addition to the PGA Tour, Ben James, who was ranked second behind him in the World Amateur Golf Ranking, just finished atop the PGA Tour University points to earn immediate promotion to the tour last month.
In five starts, he has made all five cuts, including at the U.S. Open (23rd), and posted his best finish thus far with a fourth last week at the Corales Puntacana Championship.
James, a winner of seven events during his career at the University of Virginia, became the first player to become an All-American in all four years of college golf since Bryce Molder in 2001.
Max Homa (41-1, DraftKings)
Homa finished runner-up at the John Deere Classic three weeks ago for his best finish anywhere in nearly three years.
He was also third here in 2020.
Homa ranks inside the top 50 in the FedExCup points and is one of only nine players who are here this week.
With his spot in the playoffs likely secure, he is here because he believes that this spot is ripe to break his three-year winless streak.
Johnny Keefer (46-1, DraftKings)
This time last year, Keefer was in the middle of a campaign that would earn him Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year honors. In this rookie season on the PGA Tour in 2026, he has already posted two top-5s (Scottish Open, Houston Open).
Keefer ranks ninth for SG: Off the Tee and 15th for SG: Approach, plus rates 10th for Driving Distance, seventh in Ball Striking and second for Greens in Regulation.
Mac Meissner (46-1, DraftKings)
Meissner has posted four top-10 finishes in his last nine events.
However, he is currently in the final spot, 70th, for the FedExCup Playoffs. Another high finish should lock in his spot to make it to Memphis next month.
He finished 14th here last year, shooting all four rounds in the 60s.
William Mouw (66-1, DraftKings)
Mouw is in a bit of a similar spot to Kurt Kitayama before his victory here last year, as he comes in on solid form but is slightly on the outside looking in (102nd) for the FedExCup playoffs.
Last year, Mouw earned his first PGA Tour victory at the ISCO Championship and just finished 10th at the same event two weeks ago. After the ISCO victory, he followed it up with a T-7 here last year at the 3M.
Mouw ranks sixth in this field for Ball Striking.
Jesper Svensson (82-1, DraftKings)
Svensson finished 14th here last year on debut.
The big-hitting Swede finished ninth at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and then fourth at the RBC Canadian Open to get himself into The Open Championship. He made both cuts over in the UK but should take more to this wider setup.
He ranks 121st in the FedExCup points, but is playing his best golf of the season.
Joel Dahmen (160-1, Bet365)
Dahmen finished just 24th last week at the Corales Puntacana, the site of his lone PGA Tour victory in 2021. However, he led the field for SG: Tee To Green and was fifth for SG: Approach.
In the week prior at the ISCO Championship, he was also fifth for SG: Approach and seventh for SG: Tee To Green.
Currently, he is 114th in the FedExCup points and needs a couple of good finishes to either reach the top 70 for the playoffs or position himself into the top 100 for the FedExCup fall.
Placement markets, props, matchups and/or other bets will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks.
