Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Thursday, July 23 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 8
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Senza Parole (8th race)
Eighth Race
1. Senza Parole
2. Autumn Evening
3. Munnings Express
SENZA PAROLE still hasn’t gotten back to the 94 Beyer she earned winning her debut up here as a 2yo; she missed a year after that, and it took her a couple of starts to get going when she finally returned, but she ran better than it looks when downing the streaking Grammy Girl last November sprinting, then blasted a field over a one-turn mile in her next start; got in too tough last time, but she is best sprinting. AUTUMN EVENING lacks figure power, but she, too, is better going shorter, and she can get any kind of trip and still run her race; makes her second start back from a long layoff after starting back in a much tougher spot. MUNNINGS EXPRESS has run nothing but good races sprinting on dirt, including back-to-back wins over open company this year once she cleared her state-bred conditions; turf to dirt with speed from the rail.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other eight races on Thursday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Bounding Along
2. Key Actress
3. Credit Risk
BOUNDING ALONG was last early, before making a wide run around the turn, passing several horses, then continued to gain ground all through the stretch and just missed in her debut back in May; can easily improve enough to be competitive with this field as Prat sticks for the second start. KEY ACTRESS has been showing speed routing on the grass around a start sprinting on synthetic last December, where she reportedly bled; looks well-spotted to try her speed on dirt as she turns back to seven. CREDIT RISK finished a game second in her career debut; has failed to improve since while facing tougher than this; finally takes the needed class drop as she returns from a layoff with blinkers on.
Second Race
1. Shangrala Road
2. Madagascar
3. Blast Furnace
SHANGRALA ROAD proved that he can get a distance when stretching out to win the second start of his career with an 87 Beyer; made the turf debut off the Rice claim sprinting last month, and he ran deceptively well in that spot while having to angle out from behind horses while trying to rally, after being rated to last on the rail. MADAGASCAR was stuck three-wide around the track while today’s rival, Middle Market, saved all the ground, and they finished close together behind a dominant winner at this level back in May; drops back down to make his second start off the claim. BLAST FURNACE is dropping for his second start back from a layoff, and doing so while rejoining the trainer for whom he ran his best races last year in Kentucky; has tactical speed and picks up Prat.
Third Race
1. Norwich
2. Normandy Coast
3. Sheriff Bianco
NORWICH broke from a tough post going the mile from the chute last time; has speed, and had run well in both starts prior to that without winning; he also ran well over this track last summer when first off the Maker claim, right before enduring a long layoff; drops all the way down. NORMANDY COAST is also dropping sharply for this, and he does so after experimenting with turf in his first start off the claim for these connections; shaped with some potential early on while winning three straight sprinting on dirt, including a stakes that was rained off the grass; keeps Irad for the return to dirt. SHERIFF BIANCO proved that he is still capable when getting back in the winner’s circle three starts back; was taken back by Rice last time, but he is dropping off the claim for this.
Fourth Race
1. Spirit of St Louis
2. Capture the Flag
3. Salamis
SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS has lost a step or two off the form that saw him become a dual Grade 1-winner last year, though he has been behind wire-to-wire winners in all three starts so far this year, including the last two when placed back in with fellow NY-breds; needs his best, but he will appreciate getting a bit more distance to work with in this spot. CAPTURE THE FLAG has been laid up for over a year since running poorly in two graded stakes going long last spring; he earned a 96 Beyer winning a Grade 2 prior to going off form, and he can bring fresh speed off the bench. SALAMIS is a stablemate of the top one, and he scored a Grade 1 win of his own when closing down a field of fellow 3-year-olds at the end of last year in California; landed in a tougher race when brought back from the layoff last month in a race that featured a quick final fraction; can easily do better.
Fifth Race
1. Side Quest
2. Cadillac Mary
3. Quoted
SIDE QUEST flashed good speed before being overtaken in the early stages, then was racing on gamely again late in a useful debut experience on dirt; bred to be better on this surface. CADILLAC MARY also has the advantage of a prior race; she debuted on grass, and she ran well that day while chasing gamely after taking back off a front-running winner at the start – that front-running winner shipped to Canada to win a stakes race last weekend. QUOTED shows up with a limited tab of published works for Casse, though she was trained up to the sale back in April, where she sold for $65k after a 10.2 breeze; might be better with more distance, but there is a ton of turf and class in this female family.
Sixth Race
1. Ancient World
2. Three Little Birds
3. Schlomo
ANCIENT WORLD went right into stakes company after winning the first two starts of his career early last year; starting back with class relief after a troubled trip when last seen. THREE LITTLE BIRDS arrived from Florida in good form earlier this year, and she was a more convincing winner than it might appear in her NY debut when forced to chase wide; has also run well in both starts on fast dirt since; needs the right trip here, but he is better than he looks, and will be a fair price. SCHLOMO dropped to get his maiden win early last year, then proved to be a game winner of his next start when back up on class; ran fine off the long layoff while using the waiver, then caught slop last time when similarly protected from being claimed; logically spotted with his regular rider returning.
Seventh Race
1. All of It
2. Celtic Dawn
3. Considerate City
ALL OF IT has been impressive, winning both starts to begin her career, including that last one when handily placed away from a solid pace throughout over this course and distance; looks tough once again as she steps into stakes company. CELTIC DAWN looked good winning the first two starts of her career on either side of a layoff on dirt; has a turf pedigree, and she might have been even better winning her surface debut last time, though that was also sprinting; stretches out to face tougher. CONSIDERATE CITY has run well in all seven starts so far despite never crossing the wire first; finished well for second behind ALL OF IT here two back, and did the same in that last one, despite only being second-best once again; reliable closer will be running late.
Ninth Race
1. Dancing Miracle
2. Anna Brocknana
3. Garden of Grace
DANCING MIRACLE didn’t run particularly well in her two starts last year, though she did show improved early speed before the layoff; it was on a different surface, but she clearly took a step forward in her 3yo debut when along for a good second after early trouble; back to turf while moving up in class. ANNA BROCKNANA might have gone a bit too fast on the lead in her debut run downstate, where she wound up tiring readily when challenged by the favorite at the top of the stretch; she can improve for that experience, and she should be tighter for the second start as she comes right back at the same level. GARDEN OF GRACE was only second-best to a clear-cut winner when dropped back to this level for her most recent turf start; she had a bit of a trip when in for the $50k tag last October, preceding a layoff; might have some pace to come after in this spot.
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