Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bets and Golf Odds

Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bets and Golf Odds:

Joe Highsmith accomplished something that had not been done in nine years — make the weekend cut on the number and then go on to win the tournament. (Brandt Snedeker was the last to do it at the 2016 Farmers Insurance Open.) Highsmith did it at the Cognizant Classic, shooting a pair of 64s on the weekend to win by two strokes at 19 under par. Over the final two rounds, he made 231 feet of putts, including birdie putts of 14, 14, 15, 18, 18, 20 and 35 feet. He made just one bogey over his final 36 holes.

Highsmith’s win gives him a two-year exemption and spots in the Masters, PGA Championship, The Players Championship, 2026 Sentry and this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill in Orlando.

Scottie Scheffler (+350) has won here at Bay Hill two of the last three years.

Rory McIlroy (+850) won in 2018 and was the runner-up two years ago and has eight finishes of 13th or better in 10 career starts at Bay Hill. 

Ludvig Åberg (16-1) won the last “Signature Event” on the PGA Tour three weeks ago at the Genesis Invitational. 

Xander Schauffele (18-1) returns for the first time since the season opener at The Sentry as he has been out of action with a rib injury. 

Collin Morikawa (22-1), Hideki Matsuyama (25-1), Justin Thomas (28-1), Patrick Cantlay (30-1), Tommy Fleetwood (35-1) and Sungjae Im (45-1), who has never finished worse than 21st in six career starts here, make up the next rung in the betting market. 

Aside from Scheffler and McIlroy, 2016 API winner Jason Day (80-1) is the only former event winner in the field this week. 

The Event   

The Arnold Palmer Invitational began in essence in 1966 as the Florida Citrus Open in Orlando. In 1979, the tournament moved to its present home at the Bay Hill Club & Lodge. Arnold Palmer owned the club until his passing in 2016. His daughter and son-in-law, Amy and Roy Saunders, now own and operate the club. Palmer served as host from 1979 until his death and the event took on his name in 2007. 

This year, the API is a limited field of 72 players for a “Signature Event.”

With this event being held a week before The Player Championship, this week’s field has an even more international flavor than normal. Non-American players have won here five of the last seven years. No player has won more here than Tiger Woods, who has been victorious here eight times (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013) but is not participating this week. Other major champions who have emerged victorious at Bay Hill Club: Scottie Scheffler (2022, 2024), Bryson DeChambeau (2021), Francesco Molinari (2019), Rory McIlroy (2018), Jason Day (2016), Ernie Els (1998, 2010), Vijay Singh (2007), Phil Mickelson (1997), Ben Crenshaw (1993), Fred Couples (1992), Tom Kite (1982, 1989), Paul Azinger (1988), Payne Stewart (1987) and Fuzzy Zoeller (1985). 

The Field

Here are the 72 players in this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational field:

Note that there will be a cut here for the weekend to the top 50 and ties and all players within 10 shots of the lead. 

The Course   

The Bay Hill Club & Lodge was designed in 1961 by Dick Wilson and Bob Simmons and was owned by Arnold Palmer, who also did several redesigns, from 1974 to 2016. The stretching 7,466-yard, par-72 parklands features a set of tough par-4s plus three of the par-5s measure over 550 yards but are scoreable. The par-3s, which are the longest on tour, average almost 220 yards. 

This is a course that ordinarily tests all facets of a player’s game. Bay Hill features three inches of overseeded rye rough plus TifEagle Bermuda green complexes that will run fast at 13 on the stimpmeter. In 2015, all holes and green complexes were re-grassed with the putting surfaces, which average around 7,500 square feet (fourth largest on tour). The track is heavily bunkered (84) and has water in play on nine holes. Two years ago, most of the sloping run-off areas from around the greens had been replaced with thick three-inch rough.

With the recent changes, Bay Hill has been rated in the top 10 in terms of the toughest courses on tour each of the last five years, although it played easier last year due to some soft conditions. The fairways were widened, and some trees were removed, so driving is easier than before, but approach shots, shots around the green and putting is where the course is more difficult. 

Bay Hill might be the toughest two-hole closing stretch on tour. The par-3 17th is a 221-yard tee shot often hit into a typically stiff wind over water to a well-bunkered green. The 18th is a 458-yard par-4 that begins with a nervous tee shot also hit into the wind that brings water into play on the right for the longer hitters and out of bounds into play on the left for shorter hitters. Bunkers surround the back and left of the green to punish any players looking for other places to bail out.

Correlated courses to Bay Hill include PGA National, Quail Hollow, Memorial Park, Olympia Fields, Doral, Concession, the Country Club and Congaree, plus recent major championship courses Augusta National, Oak Hill, Winged Foot and Bethpage Black. 

The record low round in tournament play at Bay Hill is 62, shared by Andy Bean (Round 2, 1981), Greg Norman (Round 2, 1984) and Adam Scott (Round 1, 2014).

Hole flyover videos are provided on Bay Hill’s YouTube page.

Rain is expected on Wednesday, so we could see some soft conditions in Thursday’s opening round before it firms up a bit on Friday and Saturday. Sunday is expected to have rain, so there could be some delays and a potential Monday finish.

Forecasts provided courtesy of AccuWeather. 

Arnold Palmer Invitational Recent History/Winners 

2024: Scottie Scheffler (-15/273); 6-1

2023: Kurt Kitayama (-9/279); 200-1

2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5/283); 20-1

2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11/277); 13-1

2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4/284); 55-1 

2019: Francesco Molinari (-12/276); 33-1 

2018: Rory McIlroy (-18/270); 20-1 

2017: Marc Leishman (-11/277); 100-1 

2016: Jason Day (-17/271); 14-1 

2015: Matt Every (-19/269); 300-1 

2014: Matt Every (-13/275); 66-1 

2013: Tiger Woods (-13/275); 3-1 

2012: Tiger Woods (-13/275); 8-1 

2011: Martin Laird (-8/280); 45-1 

2010: Ernie Els (-11/277); 16-1 

The API became a “Signature Event” in 2024 with a limited field of 70 players. 

Statistical Analysis

Bay Hill is one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour to gain strokes on approach despite having large greens. 

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Tommy Fleetwood 1.178
2. Nick Taylor 1.048
3. Justin Thomas 1.045
4. Scottie Scheffler 0.960
5. J.J. Spaun 0.911
6. Collin Morikawa 0.908
7. Sepp Straka 0.867
8. Maverick McNealy 0.780
9. Hideki Matsuyama 0.724
10. Adam Scott 0.722
11. Brian Campbell 0.590
12. Cam Davis 0.588
13. Tom Kim 0.577
14. Shane Lowry 0.576
15. Tom Hoge 0.551

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 1.269
2. Tony Finau 0.808
3. Corey Conners 0.776
4. Tom Hoge 0.754
5. Lucas Glover 0.710
6. Xander Schauffele 0.678
7. Aaron Rai 0.676
8. Justin Thomas 0.639
9. Shane Lowry 0.531
10. Si Woo Kim 0.506
11. Hideki Matsuyama 0.499
12. J.J. Spaun 0.469
13. Viktor Hovland 0.458
14. Ludvig Åberg 0.434
15. Andrew Novak 0.430

Around one-third of the approach shots are from 200 yards or more. Three of the four par-3s are over 200 yards as well.

Proximity Gained — 200+ Yards (Last 50 rounds)

1. Max Greyserman 19.82
2. Xander Schauffele 19.59
3. Ben Griffin 13.75
4. Akshay Bhatia 13.62
5. Sungjae Im 12.83
6. Michael Kim 12.48
7. Viktor Hovland 12.34
8. J.J. Spaun 12.26
9. Robert MacIntyre 11.86
10. Andrew Novak 10.88
11. Scottie Scheffler 10.87
12. Byeong Hun An 10.22
13. Patrick Cantlay 10.03
14. Tom Hoge 9.83
15. Austin Eckroat 9.49

Note: Average Feet Gained toward the hole from the designated shot distance.

Longer hitters like Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy have won at Bay Hill, but so have good ball strikers like Tyrrell Hatton and Francesco Molinari. Hit it as long as possible and as straight as possible. Total Driving combines Driving Distance Ranking with Driving Distance Ranking.

Total Driving (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Taylor Pendrith 69 (Distance 42 + Accuracy 27)
2. Isaiah Salinda 84 (22 + 62)
3. Daniel Berger 85 (67 + 18)
4. Max McGreevy 97 (83 + 14)
5. Davis Thompson 112 (62 + 50)
6. Tom Kim 114 (37 + 77)
7. Patrick Rodgers 116 (55 + 61)
8. Rory McIlroy 127 (2 + 125)
9. Robert MacIntyre 129 (114 + 15)
10. Sam Stevens 131 (51 + 80)
11. Ben Griffin 138 (95 + 43)
12. Aldrich Potgieter 148 (1 + 147)
13. Joe Highsmith 150 (108 + 42)
14. Sepp Straka 150 (139 + 11)
15. Michael Kim 155 (74 + 81)

Total Driving (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 87 (64 + 23)
2. Ludvig Åberg 96 (22 + 74)
3. Rory McIlroy 104 (2 + 102)
4. Tommy Fleetwood 108 (97 + 11)
5. Austin Eckroat 109 (93 + 16)
6. Joe Highsmith 116 (46 + 70)
7. Harris English 120 (83 + 37) 
8. Stephan Jaeger 122 (21 + 101)
9. Keegan Bradley 124 (54 + 70)
10. Sam Burns 126 (37 + 89)
11. Shane Lowry 126 (97 + 29)
12. Xander Schauffele 128 (33 + 95)
13. Davis Thompson 129 (47 + 82)
14. Chris Kirk 136 (103 + 33)
15. Akshay Bhatia 138 (104 + 34) 

Scottie Scheffler led the field here last year for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee. 

Strokes Gained: Off The Tee — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Rory McIlroy 1.323
2. Aldrich Potgieter 1.153
3. Taylor Pendrith 0.966
4. Robert MacIntyre 0.726
5. Isaiah Salinda 0.599
6. Davis Thompson 0.572
7. Thomas Detry 0.542
8. Cameron Young 0.532
9. Matt Fitzpatrick 0.498
10. Keegan Bradley 0.490
11. Sungjae Im 0.478
12. Byeong Hun An 0.438
13. Daniel Berger 0.426
14. Si Woo Kim 0.400
15. Viktor Hovland 0.350

Strokes Gained: Off The Tee — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 0.816
2. Rory McIlroy 0.730
3. Min Woo Lee 0.690
4. Xander Schauffele 0.557
5. Viktor Hovland 0.507
6. Ludvig Åberg 0.502
7. Sam Stevens 0.433
8. Wyndham Clark 0.420
9. Collin Morikawa 0.417
10. Corey Conners 0.411
11. Byeong Hun An 0.404
12. Maverick McNealy 0.391
13. Daniel Berger 0.385
14. Cameron Young 0.375
15. Sahith Theegala 0.350

Scottie Scheffler also led the field here last year for Strokes Gained: Around The Green. Chipping is different now at Bay Hill with grass being grown out around the greens. Players will have to scramble to avoid making bogeys. 

Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Justin Rose 0.827
2. Brian Campbell 0.802
3. Tony Finau 0.585
4. Cam Davis 0.576
5. Min Woo Lee 0.527
6. Hideki Matsuyama 0.516
7. Andrew Novak 0.463
8. Michael Kim 0.440
9. Davis Thompson 0.392
10. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.377
11. Daniel Berger 0.337
12. Shane Lowry 0.330
13. J.T. Poston 0.329
14. Will Zalatoris 0.308
15. Justin Thomas 0.282

Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Hideki Matsuyama 0.580
2. Justin Thomas 0.466
3. Mackenzie Hughes 0.444
4. Davis Thompson 0.432
5. Maverick McNealy 0.374
6. Collin Morikawa 0.374
7. Tony Finau 0.360
8. Denny McCarthy 0.358
9. Scottie Scheffler 0.316
10. Russell Henley 0.289
11. Ben Griffin 0.271
12. Sungjae Im 0.264
13. Rory McIlroy 0.248
14. J.T. Poston 0.233
15. Patrick Cantlay 0.218
16. Tommy Fleetwood 0.218

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Michael Kim 9.26%
2. Rory McIlroy 9.72
3. Justin Thomas 10.56
4. Denny McCarthy 10.65
5. Scottie Scheffler 10.65
6. Sepp Straka 10.68
7. Daniel Berger 10.83
8. Sam Burns 10.83
9. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 11.11
10. Brian Harman 11.11
11. Hideki Matsuyama 11.11
12. Collin Morikawa 11.11
13. Will Zalatoris 11.11
14. J.J. Spaun 11.33
15. Sam Stevens 11.54

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Xander Schauffele 9.44
2. Scottie Scheffler 9.85
3. Aaron Rai 12.23
4. Andrew Novak 12.47
5. Tommy Fleetwood 12.60
6. Ben Griffin 12.64
7. Maverick McNealy 13.04
8. Collin Morikawa 13.08
9. Russell Henley 13.17
10. Hideki Matsuyama 13.29
11. Ludvig Åberg 13.41
12. Sam Stevens 13.62
13. Robert MacIntyre 13.70
14. Billy Horschel 13.71
15. Max Greyserman 13.72

Note: Percentage of time player makes bogey. 

Birdie or Better Percentage lower at Bay Hill as opposed to the average PGA Tour event.

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Collin Morikawa 32.87%
2. Patrick Cantlay 32.29
3. Cam Davis 32.29
4. Sepp Straka 30.13
5. Adam Scott 30.09
6. Justin Thomas 30.00
7. Russell Henley 29.44
8. Ludvig Åberg 28.21
9. Tony Finau 27.78
10. Joe Highsmith 27.78
11. Nick Taylor 27.31
12. Max Greyserman 27.16
13. Isaiah Salinda 27.12
14. Maverick McNealy 27.08
15. Sungjae Im 27.05

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 27.93
2. Sam Burns 25.69
3. Jacob Bridgeman 25.27
4. Joe Highsmith 25.15
5. Max Greyserman 25.10
6. Michael Kim 24.97
7. Wyndham Clark 24.88
8. Xander Schauffele 24.77
9. Nick Dunlap 24.73
10. Taylor Pendrith 24.68
11. Tony Finau 24.36
12. Maverick McNealy 24.33
13. Collin Morikawa 24.33
14. Ludvig Åberg 24.30
15. Viktor Hovland 24.27

Scoring is most difficult on the par-3s and par-4s at Bay Hill, so the par-5s take on even more importance this week.

Strokes Gained Par-5s (Last 50 rounds)

1. Max Greyserman 24.8
2. Joe Highsmith 22.3
3. Taylor Pendrith 21.4
4. Patrick Cantlay 20.4
5. Adam Scott 20.2
6. Scottie Scheffler 20.1
7. Tony Finau 18.3
8. Si Woo Kim 17.7
9. Ben Griffin 17.5
10. Billy Horschel 17.5
11. Ludvig Åberg 15.6
12. Andrew Novak 14.6
13. Michael Kim 13.4
14. Tommy Fleetwood 13.3
15. Justin Thomas 13

Five of the par-4s are longer in the range of 450-500 yards and all are difficult. 

Strokes Gained Par-4s 450-500 Yards (Last 50 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 37.1
2. Xander Schauffele 30.6
3. Daniel Berger 29.9
4. Rory McIlroy 28.6
5. Russell Henley 27.7
6. Joe Highsmith 27.5
7. Maverick McNealy 25.8
8. Nick Taylor 23.6
9. Ludvig Åberg 20.3
10. Keegan Bradley 19.1
11. J.J. Spaun 19
12. Max Greyserman 18.9
13. Robert MacIntyre 18
14. Michael Kim 18
15. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 17.6
16. Cameron Young 17.6

The greens are fast (12.5 stimpmeter) anyway but should get a little faster over the weekend. Plus, they are large greens, so players will have to gain with lag putts. 

Strokes Gained: Putting — Bermuda Greens — Average Per Round (Last 50 rounds)

1. Thomas Detry 0.71
2. Denny McCarthy 0.70
3. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.62
4. Russell Henley 0.61
5. Harris English 0.57
6. Ben Griffin 0.56
7. Max Greyserman 0.56 (36 rounds)
8. Jacob Bridgeman 0.55 (35 rounds)
9. Maverick McNealy 0.51
10. Mackenzie Hughes 0.48
11. Sam Burns 0.48
12. Adam Scott 0.40
13. Xander Schauffele 0.39
14. Wyndham Clark 0.37
15. Akshay Bhatia 0.37

Selections

Rory McIlroy (+850, BetMGM)

Admittedly, this is a shorter number, but he is over twice the price of deserved tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler and is in better form. 

McIlroy has finished no worse than fourth in six of his last eight worldwide starts and has won twice (DP World Tour Championship and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am).

The Pebble Beach victory was on Poa Annua greens and now he is back on the preferred Bermuda greens, and he has gained an average of 0.46 strokes putting per round in 40 career rounds at Bay Hill.

However, it is not his putter that wins him this thing. It’s the driver. Rory is No. 1 on the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and second for Driving Distance. 

Tommy Fleetwood (30-1, DraftKings)

The OWGR No. 10 player is still seeking his first PGA Tour victory and his first win anywhere since January 2024 (Dubai Invitational).

Recent form indicates that it could be coming soon with four top-6 finishes in his last seven worldwide starts. 

Fleetwood has gone close in the Sunshine State on several occasions — Bay Hill (third in 2019), Copperhead (third in 2023), PGA National (fourth in 2018, third in 2020) and TPC Sawgrass (7th in 2018).

He leads the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained: Approach in the 2025 season. 

Shane Lowry (49-1, Circa Sports)

Lowry was widely backed in the market last week but got off to a slow start and had to rally over the weekend to finish 11th.

However, he led the field on Saturday for Strokes Gained: Approach. 

He was third here last year and is more suited for a tougher test, which Bay Hill will be this week as opposed to PGA National last week. 

Viktor Hovland (60-1, Circa Sports)

Hovland has certainly had his struggles to start 2025, missing two of four cuts. 

Nonetheless, he has gone well here in the past, finishing runner-up in 2022 in an event he likely should have won and then finishing top 10 in 2023. 

He was the third-shortest price on the board here last year and the course fits his game, especially with the thicker rough surrounding the greens rather than the short grass. 

Daniel Berger (70-1, Circa Sports)

Berger was also widely backed (including yours truly) last weekend at the Cognizant Classic. He was in contention but stalled over the weekend to finish 25th. 

He was fourth in the field for Scrambling and that will be important this week at a tougher test like Bay Hill.

Placement markets and/or matchups will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks