BMW Championship Best Bets and Golf Odds:
Scottie Scheffler went into last week leading the FedExCup points despite having only one victory on the season back in January. However, since that win at The American Express, Scheffler has posted five runner-up finishes and five other top-5 finishes. It seemed like last week that he was going to get back into the winner’s circle, and that is why we bet the “Without Scheffler” market last week and ended up with a 25-1 winner on Si Woo Kim, who finished second.
Scheffler was 5-1 last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, but posting 17 under and beating the field by eight strokes tends to lower your price for the following event. This week, Scheffler is 3-1 to win the BMW Championship, a title he also won last year, as the final 50 players in the FedExCup tee it up at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis.
Rory McIlroy (16-1) had not played since the British Open, and the rust was apparent as he finished 66th out of 69 players with three of his four rounds over par.
Only Scheffler rated ahead of Ludvig Åberg (18-1) for Greens In Regulation last week as Åberg finished T-7 in Memphis along with Xander Schauffele (18-1).
Tommy Fleetwood (20-1) and Sam Burns (20-1) were on the first page of the leaderboard almost all weekend and wound up finishing T-7 and T-3, respectively.
Cameron Young (20-1), Matt Fitzpatrick (22-1), Si Woo Kim (28-1) and Chris Gotterup (28-1) are all priced under 30-1.
The Field
The BMW Championship is a no-cut playoff event that features the top 50 players in the FedExCup standings.
During last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, Sungjae Im finished T-5 and was the only player to move into the top 50, climbing from 53rd to 40th. Matt McCarty held the final qualifying position at No. 50, while Keith Mitchell fell from 49th to 51st.
These are the following scenarios for players currently either on the bubble or outside the top 30 for players to reach next week’s Tour Championship:
| Rank | Player | Min Finish |
| 28 | Kitayama, Kurt | Solo 49th |
| 29 | Cauley, Bud | Solo 48th |
| 30 | Fowler, Rickie | Solo 50th |
| 31 | Woodland, Gary | Solo 48th |
| 32 | Poston, J.T. | Solo 31st |
| 33 | Højgaard, Nicolai | 3-Way T18 |
| 34 | Noren, Alex | Solo 17th |
| 35 | Knapp, Jake | 3-Way T16 |
| 36 | MacIntyre, Robert | 3-Way T15 |
| 37 | Rai, Aaron | Solo 12th |
| 38 | Griffin, Ben | Solo 11th |
| 39 | Straka, Sepp | Solo 11th |
| 40 | Im, Sungjae | Solo 8th |
| 41 | Thorbjornsen, Michael | Solo 8th |
| 42 | Echavarria, Nico | 2-Way 7th |
| 43 | Cantlay, Patrick | Solo 7th |
| 44 | Thomas, Justin | Solo 7th |
| 45 | Hisatsune, Ryo | 3-Way 2nd |
| 46 | Theegala, Sahith | 3-Way 2nd |
| 47 | Brennan, Michael | 2-Way 2nd |
| 48 | Cole, Eric | 2-Way 2nd |
| 49 | McNealy, Maverick | 2-Way 2nd |
| 50 | McCarty, Matt | Solo 2nd |
The Course
Bellerive Country Club is located in Town and Country, Mo., a suburb west of St. Louis and was established in 1897. The course has hosted three major championships: the U.S. Open in 1965 and the PGA Championship in 1992 and 2018.
Robert Trent Jones Sr was the original designer of Bellerive, and his son Rees did both renovations in 2006 and 2019.
The last big tournament for PGA pros that Bellerive hosted was the PGA Championship in 2018. Brooks Koepka won at 16 under par, with Tiger Woods finishing two shots behind after a final-round 64. Since then, the course has undergone more renovations, mainly with all of the greens being rebuilt from the ground up and re-grassed with T1 bentgrass.
Six holes have also been lengthened, adding approximately 130 yards compared with the 2018 PGA Championship setup to the current par-70 layout of 7,448 yards.
The course has 76 bunkers and eight water-hazard holes.
The Zoysia fairways have some bounce and are relatively generous at 34 yards wide on average. However, the Fescue rough (3 to 3.5 inches) can be penal.
The Bentgrass greens, most of which are elevated, are some of the largest these players will see at 7,500 square feet on average. They will roll at around 11.5 on the stimpmeter and could be even firmer and faster than the 2018 PGA.
TPC Southwind and East Lake are obvious correlations to Bellerive with the Zoysiagrass. Some of the recent PGA Championship courses like Quail Hollow, Valhalla and Southern Hills share similarities. In terms of annual PGA Tour courses, think of Bay Hill and Muirfield Village.
Both par-5s measure over 600 yards. Six of the par-4s are at least 460 yards, and three can stretch beyond 500 yards. The four par-3s have some variety, from short (170, 187) to long (215, 237).
FOX 2 (KTVI) in St. Louis provides a preview of the event, including some flyover course shots.
Weather
The AccuWeather forecast shows that winds will be heaviest for the Thursday morning starters but then should be relatively calm for the rest of the event.
With the rain from last weekend plus some rain on Wednesday and Thursday, conditions should be fairly soft early on and then firm up on Friday and Saturday.
BMW Championship Recent History/Winners
2025: Scottie Scheffler (-15/265); Caves Valley; 5-2
2024: Keegan Bradley (-12/276); Castle Pines; 100-1
2023: Viktor Hovland (-17/263); Olympia Fields; 18-1
2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14/270); Wilmington; 16-1
2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27/261); Caves Valley; 25-1*
2020: Jon Rahm (-4/276); Olympia Fields; 10-1**
2019: Justin Thomas (-25/263); Medinah; 16-1
2018: Keegan Bradley (-20/260); Aronimink; 140-1***
2017: Marc Leishman (-23/261); Conway Farms; 45-1
2016: Dustin Johnson (-23/265); Crooked Stick; 10-1
2015: Jason Day (-22/262); Conway Farms; 15-2
2014: Billy Horschel (-14/266); Cherry Hills; 66-1
2013: Zach Johnson (-16/268); Conway Farms; 40-1
2012: Rory McIlroy (-20/268); Crooked Stick; 7-1
2011: Justin Rose (-13/271); Cog Hill; 66-1
2010: Dustin Johnson (-9/275); Cog Hill; 33-1
Playoff win over Bryson DeChambeau – *
Playoff win over Dustin Johnson – **
Playoff win over Justin Rose – ***
Statistical Analysis
At the 2018 PGA Championship held at Bellerive, 14 of the top 15 finishers gained at least a half-stroke per round on approach, with 10 gaining at least a full stroke.
Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Collin Morikawa 0.822
- Matt Fitzpatrick 0.815
- Si Woo Kim 0.774
- Alex Fitzpatrick 0.742
- Tom Kim 0.685
- Scottie Scheffler 0.653
- J.J. Spaun 0.584
- Kurt Kitayama 0.579
- Adam Scott 0.547
- Patrick Cantlay 0.545
- Viktor Hovland 0.543
- Justin Rose 0.530
- Ludvig Åberg 0.524
- Jake Knapp 0.479
- Hideki Matsuyama 0.473
- Cameron Young 0.451
- Wyndham Clark 0.445
- Alex Smalley 0.408
Players will have several approach shots of 200 yards or more here at Bellerive.
The average relative to par score when an approach shot is hit from a distance greater than or equal to 200 yards, where distance is determined by coordinate-level shot data. The shot must originate from the fairway (or the tee box on a par-3). The approach must also end on or around the green or in the hole.
Approach > 200 yards (RTP Score) (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Jake Knapp -.405
- Scottie Scheffler -.378
- Tommy Fleetwood -.372
- Ludvig Åberg -.370
- Min Woo Lee -.307
- Patrick Cantlay -.299
- Nicolai Højgaard -.297
- Wyndham Clark -.296
- Rickie Fowler -.295
- Michael Brennan -.281
- Matt Fitzpatrick -.272
- Maverick McNealy -.264
- Ryo Hisatsune -.258
- Collin Morikawa -.258
- Xander Schauffele -.256
- Si Woo Kim -.247
- Sepp Straka -.247
- Rory McIlroy -.243
- Chris Gotterup -.240
- Justin Rose -.240
Looking back to the 2018 PGA Championship, the leaderboard was littered with big and tall hitters that stripe it off the tee. Brooks Koepka, Tiger Woods, Adam Scott, Stewart Cink, Jon Rahm, Gary Woodland, Thomas Pieters all fit that description and finished in the top 10.
Driving Distance (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Rory McIlroy 328.9
- Michael Brennan 326.4
- Nicolai Højgaard 324.1
- Gary Woodland 322.3
- Chris Gotterup 322.0
- Min Woo Lee 321.8
- Xander Schauffele 318.8
- Jake Knapp 317.8
- Cameron Young 317.0
- Ludvig Åberg 316.8
- Sam Burns 313.9
- Kurt Kitayama 313.8
- Ryan Fox 313.6
- Michael Thorbjornsen 313.1
- Alex Fitzpatrick 312.9
- Adam Scott 312.9
- Kristoffer Reitan 312.8
- Wyndham Clark 311.8
- Scottie Scheffler 311.3
- Maverick McNealy 311.2
As is typical on a par-70, the par-4s will decide this event, and they range from as short as 361 to 514.
Par 4 Birdie Or Better Percentage (Last 50 rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler 21.5%
- Sam Burns 21.0
- Gary Woodland 21.0
- Ryan Fox 20.6
- Tom Kim 20.6
- Jake Knapp 20.5
- Si Woo Kim 20.1
- Viktor Hovland 20.1
- Alex Smalley 20.0
- Jacob Bridgeman 19.9
- Cameron Young 19.8
- Hideki Matsuyama 19.8
- Wyndham Clark 19.7
- Collin Morikawa 19.6
- Ludvig Åberg 19.4
- Ryan Gerard 19.4
- J.J. Spaun 19.2
- Eric Cole 19.2
- Robert MacIntyre 19.1
There are several hazards here, along with thick rough and potentially long putts, so although scoring should be in the mid-teens under par for the contenders, bogeys certainly lurk.
Bogey Avoidance Percentage (Last 50 rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler 9.6%
- Tom Kim 12.1
- Tommy Fleetwood 12.2
- Matt Fitzpatrick 12.6
- Michael Thorbjornsen 13.3
- Xander Schauffele 13.6
- Bud Cauley 13.7
- Sam Burns 13.8
- Ben Griffin 13.8
- Cameron Young 14.0
- Russell Henley 14.0
- Patrick Cantlay 14.0
- Si Woo Kim 14.1
- Wyndham Clark 14.3
- Ludvig Åberg 14.4
- Alex Noren 14.4
- Eric Cole 14.6
- Alex Fitzpatrick 14.8
- Gary Woodland 14.9
- Alex Smalley 14.9
- Rickie Fowler 15.0
The greens are well-bunkered at Bellerive. In the 2018 PGA Championship, over one-third of the shots that missed the greens came from bunkers and with the size of these greens, players will sometimes have longer shots.
Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Justin Thomas 0.618
- Tommy Fleetwood 0.592
- Matt Fitzpatrick 0.496
- Eric Cole 0.450
- Ben Griffin 0.414
- Hideki Matsuyama 0.385
- Scottie Scheffler 0.379
- Wyndham Clark 0.332
- Sungjae Im 0.313
- Bud Cauley 0.302
- Michael Thorbjornsen 0.291
- Maverick McNealy 0.282
- Min Woo Lee 0.266
- Tom Kim 0.230
- Akshay Bhatia 0.226
- Sahith Theegala 0.221
- Viktor Hovland 0.219
- Cameron Young 0.218
The Bentgrass greens at Bellerive have some subtle slopes and are large, so players will have plenty of long (50-60 feet) putts.
Strokes Gained: Putting — Bentgrass Greens — Average Per Round (Last 24 rounds)
- Ryan Gerard 1.42
- Collin Morikawa 1.38
- Sam Burns 1.21
- Alex Smalley 0.97
- Eric Cole 0.92
- Maverick McNealy 0.89
- Wyndham Clark 0.83
- Kurt Kitayama 0.80
- Alex Noren 0.76
- Tommy Fleetwood 0.73
- Russell Henley 0.66
- Ben Griffin 0.64
- Bud Cauley 0.58
- Rory McIlroy 0.57
- Scottie Scheffler 0.52
- Akshay Bhatia 0.49
- J.T. Poston 0.48
- Gary Woodland 0.42
- Chris Gotterup 0.38
- Hideki Matsuyama 0.36
- Jake Knapp 0.36
Strokes Gained: Putting — Large Greens — Average Per Round (Last 24 rounds)
- Akshay Bhatia 1.15
- Gary Woodland 1.09
- Rory McIlroy 0.99
- Jacob Bridgeman 0.94
- Alex Noren 0.72
- Jake Knapp 0.71
- Collin Morikawa 0.70
- Sam Burns 0.66
- Wyndham Clark 0.62
- Robert MacIntyre 0.62
- Eric Cole 0.60
- Justin Thomas 0.53
- Xander Schauffele 0.53
- Scottie Scheffler 0.40
- Rickie Fowler 0.38
- Matt McCarty 0.38
- Min Woo Lee 0.36
With the large greens and some difficult lag putts, there is high potential for three-putts.
Three-Putt Avoidance (Last 50 rounds)
- Eric Cole 1.00%
- Tommy Fleetwood 1.33
- Scottie Scheffler 1.56
- Sam Burns 1.78
- Wyndham Clark 1.78
- Ben Griffin 1.78
- Robert MacIntyre 1.78
- Rickie Fowler 1.89
- Tom Kim 1.89
- Alex Noren 2.00
- Ryan Gerard 2.00
- Russell Henley 2.00
- Collin Morikawa 2.02
- Jacob Bridgeman 2.11
- Matt McCarty 2.11
- Nico Echavarria 2.11
- Si Woo Kim 2.11
- Justin Thomas 2.11
Selections
Last week, we went to the “Without Scheffler” market, and it worked with Si Woo Kim coming through in outright second, giving us a 25-1 winner. Scheffler won by eight strokes last week, so I am not all that interested in stepping in front of that but also not interested in betting a 3-1 either.
Ludvig Åberg (14-1, BetRivers)
As mentioned above, long, tall players who stripe it off the tee littered the board last time here at Bellerive for the 2018 PGA Championship, and Ludvig certainly fits that bill.
He finished T-7 last week in Memphis but led the field for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee, was second for Greens In Regulation and was fourth for Driving Distance.
Åberg has eight top-10 finishes in 18 events in 2026 but is still seeking his first win of the season, and Bellerive looks like an ideal setup for him.
Sam Burns (16-1, BetRivers)
Burns has finished T-4 or better in four of his past six starts, five of them being playoffs, major championships or Signature Events.
While he is known as “Bermuda Burns” for his putting prowess on Bermuda greens, Bentgrass has actually been his best surface over the last year.
It has been more than three years since Burns’ last victory, but he looks to be as close as ever to getting back to the winner’s circle.
Wyndham Clark (25-1, FanDuel)
Clark has continued to post strong finishes since his U.S. Open victory at Shinnecock Hills in June.
He finished top 5 at the Travelers and last week in Memphis.
The two-time U.S. Open champion is currently seventh in the Presidents Cup points, just behind Ben Griffin and Collin Morikawa, and getting into the top 6 would lock in an automatic spot.
Jake Knapp (33-1, Bet365)
Knapp finished T-7 last week in Memphis and was part of a five-way tie for first-round leader.
He ranked seventh for Off the Tee, 12th for Approach, sixth for Strokes Gained Ball Striking and fourth for Tee to Green. The putter cost him some strokes, but he ranks 15th on the PGA Tour this season for Strokes Gained: Putting.
Knapp also needs a good week to jump into the FedExCup points top 30 to make the Tour Championship next week, which would be a tremendous feat considering he missed the better part of two months with injury.
Kurt Kitayama (40-1, Caesars Sportsbook)
Kitayama essentially clinched his spot in next week’s Tour Championship field last week with a T-12 in Memphis.
His season has been a model of consistency with seven top-10s and 10 top-25s.
He ranks 10th on tour for Strokes Gained: Approach and 14th in Total Driving and is one of the tour’s best with long irons.
Placement markets, props, matchups and/or other bets will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks.
SPONSORED
AUGUST YOUNG is now 21-3 (88%) this WNBA season for almost +7K, which includes an absurd 16-1 (94%) winning run for +5,760!
FULLY DOCUMENTED HERE
Young is coming off another easy winner last night as he continues to dominate the women’s pro league. Access his premium WNBA picks at Doc’s Sports with a free $60 new member account. Get your free trial here!
