Remember the three NFL preseason bets we came up with last week by digging through Steve Makinen’s Analytics Report?
We went 3-0, so, naturally, we did it again.
For Week 2, I looked for bets where multiple relevant indicators in Steve’s report point in the same direction — putting the most weight on his ratings models, broader league-wide systems and current betting data.
I largely discounted team-specific preseason trends that may reflect different players and coaches from years past.
Here’s what rose to the top:
🥇 Bears-Bengals Over 36.5
Both of Steve’s totals models make this their No. 1 Over of Week 2, showing more than seven points of value. Preseason totals below 37 are 319-239 Over (57.2%) since 2010.
🥈 Bills +3 at Browns
Preseason underdogs of +1 to +3 are 198-131 ATS (60.2%) since 2015. Steve’s Power Ratings also identify Buffalo as one of the most underpriced underdogs on the board.
🥉 Chargers +1.5 vs. 49ers
This is the strongest ratings consensus of any side we found. All three of Steve’s ratings systems make the Chargers their No. 1 underpriced underdog, showing between 4.9 and 5.4 points of value. They also qualify for that 60.2% small-underdog system.
Can we go 3-0 again?
We’ll find out. More importantly, you can dig through Steve’s report yourself and look for your own plays.
Dave Tuley is off to a nice start, too.
His Week 1 Best Bets went 4-2 ATS, and he certainly had the right approach: preseason underdogs dominated at 12-3 ATS.
Dave also spotted something worth watching as we head into Week 2:
Line moves of three points or more went 0-8 ATS last week.
So instead of chasing the steam, Dave is sticking with his familiar “dog or pass” philosophy.
And here’s something I like about having different handicappers and different approaches:
Dave passes on two of our three Steve Analytics plays — Buffalo +3 and the Chargers +1.5.
Same games. Different methodologies. You decide.
Before placing those preseason bets, two more resources are worth checking.
QB Rotations: Adam Burke continues to update who is expected to play — and for how long — in every Week 2 game.
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Adam’s Game-by-Game QB Rotations →
Betting Splits: See where the money and tickets are landing as we get closer to kickoff.
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VSiN Preseason Betting Splits →
