Butterfield Bermuda Championship Best Bets and Golf Odds:
After a week off, the PGA Tour returns to action in Bermuda for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Most of the tour’s elite are not here. However, with only five events remaining in the FedExCup Fall, players here are jockeying for position in order to finish the year in the top 100 of the FedExCup points and lock up their full status for the PGA Tour in 2027.
Rookie Ben James (12-1) is the event favorite, having finished fifth, second and third in his last three PGA Tour events.
At No. 61 in the OWGR, Corey Conners (25-1) is the highest-ranked player in this field.
Andrew Novak (28-1) finished runner-up here two years ago. Also at 28-1 is Kevin Yu, who was third here in 2022, and six-time PGA Tour winner Chris Kirk, who is at No. 116 in the FedExCup Fall and needs a couple of high finishes down the stretch to keep his full playing privileges.
Unlike most players in this week’s field, Eric Cole (30-1) finished inside the FedExCup Top 50 and is in all of next year’s Signature Events but is here seeking his first win in 133 career PGA Tour starts. Austin Smotherman (32-1) picked up his first PGA Tour victory three weeks ago at the Bank of Utah Championship in what was his 100th tour start.
Seamus Power (30-1) is a former winner here in 2022 and is currently just three spots outside the Top 100, while Rico Hoey (33-1) is six spots outside the magic number.
Defending Bermuda champion Adam Schenk won this event at 125-1 last year and is priced at 175-1 this year. In this event’s seven-year history, five of the winners were priced at 100-1 or higher.
The Event
The Bermuda Championship made its debut in 2019 as an alternate event to the WGC – HSBC Champions in China. In 2020, the event was elevated to full FedEx Cup point status with 500 points going to the tournament winner. In 2021, it was going to return to alternate event status, but the WGC event in China was canceled due to COVID-19, so it went back to full event status.
In 2021, Butterfield Bank joined the Bermuda Tourism Board as co-title sponsors.
The Field
120 players are in this week’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship field:
The Course
The Port Royal Golf Course, originally known as Southampton Golf Club, in Southampton, Bermuda, will host the event for the sixth straight year and has hosted high-level professional golf before, as it was the venue for the PGA Grand Slam of Golf, where all four major champions compete, from 2009-2014. Robert Trent Jones designed Port Royal in 1970 and Roger Rulewich, an RTJ protégé, renovated it in 2009.
The track, owned and operated by the Bermuda government, is the shortest course on the PGA Tour at a par-71 of 6,828 yards. Half the holes (1-6, 11-13) are played away from the coast, and the other half (7-10, 14-18) are played at the seaside. Port Royal is predominantly constructed of TifEagle Bermudagrass (it is in Bermuda after all) on the fairways (rough only about two inches) and greens (average 8,000 square feet — third largest on tour and a slow 10 on the stimpmeter). Players have mentioned El Camaleon (Mayakoba Golf Classic) and the Plantation Course at Kapalua (Sentry TofC) as similar courses mainly for the undulations.
Port Royal also features consistent elevation changes similar to the Plantation Course at Kapalua. As should be expected on an RTJ design, heavy fairway bunkering is another part of the challenge.
The wind typically keeps the scoring relatively under control here. Players could absolutely destroy this course at barely over 6,800 yards with non-penal rough if it were not for the fact that winds can blow 30+ mph.
Here is the official scorecard for this week from PGATOUR.com:
Comparable courses to Port Royal include PGA National, Pebble Beach, Corales GC, Coco Beach, El Camaleon, Sea Island GC, Waialae CC, El Cardonal at Diamante, Grand Reserve and Harbour Town.
Weather
With the event moving up to mid-October, temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer than last year.
There has been plenty of rain in the build-up to the tournament, with six inches thus far this month. Some intermittent showers are also expected throughout. Port Royal drains well, but there should be some softness with all the rain.
Significant wind looks likely to affect scoring as well. The first two rounds look to be calmest, but the winds dramatically pick up over the weekend.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship Recent History
2025: Adam Schenk (-12/272); 125-1
2024: Rafael Campos (-19/265); 300-1
2023: Camilo Villegas (-24/260); 150-1
2022: Seamus Power (-19/265); 22-1
2021: Lucas Herbert (-15/269); 80-1
2020: Brian Gay (-15/269); 200-1*
2019: Brendon Todd (-24/260); 100-1
Playoff win over Wyndham Clark – *
Statistical Analysis
We have no ShotLink data from the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, but we can determine some key stats from the course layout.
Hitting approach shots into the wind, even from shorter distances with wedges, will not be that easy for players this week.
Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (Last 36 rounds)
- Chris Kirk 0.85
- Ben Kohles 0.83
- Davis Thompson 0.79
- Luke Clanton 0.71
- Zac Blair 0.65
- Tom Hoge 0.63
- Ben James 0.62
- Joel Dahmen 0.61
- Emiliano Grillo 0.55
- Austin Smotherman 0.55
- Lucas Glover 0.53
- Corey Conners 0.52
- Davis Chatfield 0.51
- Aaron Wise 0.45
- Tyler Duncan 0.43
- Paul Peterson 0.37
- Kevin Yu 0.34
- Rico Hoey 0.33
The fairways are relatively generous at Port Royal and the rough is not penal, but players can miss fairways in bunches here due to the wind driving tee shots off line, plus there are plenty of bunkers in the cross landing zones.
Driving Accuracy Percentage (Last 36 rounds)
- David Ford 86.6%
- David Lingmerth 85.7
- Ben Kohles 83.5
- C.T. Pan 82.1
- William McGirt 82.1
- Ben James 80.0
- Joel Dahmen 79.1
- Tyler Duncan 78.6
- Bill Haas 78.6
- Davis Chatfield 78.2
- Paul Peterson 77.6
- Chez Reavie 76.8
- Isaiah Salinda 76.2
- Takumi Kanaya 75.8
- Marcelo Rozo 75.1
- Emiliano Grillo 75.1
- Brice Garnett 75.0
- Kihei Akina 75.0
- Zac Blair 75.0
Windy conditions are expected this week in Bermuda.
Strokes Gained Total: High Winds — Average Per Round (Last five years)
- Corey Conners 1.52
- John Parry 1.20
- Tom Hoge 1.07
- Patrick Fishburn 0.97
- Seamus Power 0.83
- Luke Clanton 0.83
- Aaron Wise 0.80
- Paul Peterson 0.79
- Vince Whaley 0.75
- Andrew Novak 0.74
- Mark Hubbard 0.71
- Kris Ventura 0.71
- Adam Long 0.70
- Max Greyserman 0.63
- Will Gordon 0.61
- Adam Svensson 0.60
- Zac Blair 0.57
- Denny McCarthy 0.54
- Kevin Roy 0.54
- Jesper Svensson 0.52
- Jeremy Paul 0.51
- Chandler Phillips 0.50
The greens at Port Royal are 100% Bermudagrass. This is Bermuda, after all.
Strokes Gained: Putting — Bermuda Greens — Average Per Round (Last 36 rounds)
- Paul Peterson 1.99
- Brendon Todd 1.93
- Kevin Roy 1.67
- Mackenzie Hughes 1.19
- Denny McCarthy 1.07
- Ben James 0.93
- Hayden Springer 0.82
- Mark Hubbard 0.71
- Adam Hadwin 0.69
- Kensei Hirata 0.66
- Kevin Streelman 0.63
- Troy Merritt 0.62
- Kihei Akina 0.61
- Martin Laird 0.60
- Kevin Yu 0.59
- David Skinns 0.56
- Joel Dahmen 0.55
- Tom Hoge 0.52
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart 0.50
- Ben Kohles 0.46
The greens are some of the largest on tour at Port Royal, which means the three-putt percentage is substantially higher than tour average. Plus, the green speeds are very slow due to the wind.
Three-Putt Percentage (Last 36 rounds)
- S.Y. Noh 1.08%
- Eric Cole 1.23
- Troy Merritt 1.39
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart 1.39
- Luke Clanton 1.39
- Luke List 1.39
- Seamus Power 1.54
- Austin Eckroat 1.54
- Davis Thompson 1.54
- Matthew Anderson 1.67
- Denny McCarthy 1.70
- Brendon Todd 1.70
- Ben Silverman 1.70
- Adam Hadwin 1.70
- Ben James 1.85
- Vince Whaley 1.85
- Lee Hodges 1.85
- Chandler Phillips 1.85
- Marty Dou 1.85
- Paul Peterson 1.85
Adam Schenk rated third in Scrambling for his victory here last year, and Rafael Campos led the field for his win two years ago.
Scrambling (Last 36 rounds)
- Takumi Kanaya 69.1
- Mackenzie Hughes 66.8
- Kevin Streelman 66.5
- Ben Kohles 66.1
- Zac Blair 65.8
- Neal Shipley 65.7
- Ben James 65.6
- Seamus Power 65.3
- David Ford 64.8
- Jonathan Byrd 64.7
- Chan Kim 64.6
- Justin Lower 64.4
- Troy Merritt 64.2
- C.T. Pan 63.7
- Camilo Villegas 63.7
- Erik Van Rooyen 63.4
- Paul Peterson 63.3
- Jeffrey Kang 63.0
The winds keep the scoring from getting too low, but Port Royal is a course that is very scoreable.
Birdie Or Better Percentage (Last 36 rounds)
- Kevin Yu 28.1%
- Ben Kohles 26.9
- Ben James 26.4
- Rico Hoey 25.6
- Hayden Springer 25.5
- Seamus Power 25.5
- Taylor Montgomery 24.8
- Trace Crowe 24.8
- Kevin Roy 24.8
- A.J. Ewart 24.7
- Mackenzie Hughes 24.7
- Chris Kirk 24.7
- Chandler Phillips 24.5
- Lee Hodges 24.5
- Emiliano Grillo 24.4
- Zac Blair 24.2
- Davis Thompson 24.1
- Kihei Akina 24.0
Selections
Seamus Power (+3250, Fanatics)
Power was the winner here in 2022 and has never finished worse than 37th in six appearances at the Bermuda Championship.
Currently ranked at No. 103 in the FedExCup Fall, one high finish could ensure him a full-time return to the PGA Tour.
He finished seventh last month in Asheville and 21st three weeks ago in Utah.
Zac Blair (46-1, DraftKings)
Blair finished outside of the top 20 to get his PGA Tour card for 2017 on the Korn Ferry points list but has conditional status at No. 120, and the top 100 is not out of reach.
He was ninth last year in Bermuda and seventh in the RSM at Sea Island. His top-10 earlier this season in Puerto Rico is one of his five (three PGA Tour, two Korn Ferry) top-10s this season.
Over the last 36 rounds, he is top five in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach and Scrambling.
Austin Eckroat (49-1, DraftKings)
Eckroat certainly fits the profile here of winners who have also fared well at El Cardonal. Camilo Villegas finished second at El Cardonal before going on to win here the following week. Ben Griffin won at the same venue in Mexico last year and has posted a third and eighth here in three tries.
He is currently No. 121 and that would get conditional status (101-125), but not full status on the tour for next season.
Eckroat is also a former winner at PGA National and he was fifth for Strokes Gained: Approach at his last start in Asheville.
Mackenzie Hughes (54-1, Circa Sports)
Hughes is currently No. 118 and also fighting to get into the top 100.
He has plenty of success on correlated courses and in correlated events with a win and two runners-up at the RSM in Sea Island, a runner-up at PGA National (2020), a runner-up at Corales Puntacana (2019), a runner-up in Myrtle Beach (2025) and a T-3 at Harbour Town (2024).
The Canadian is still one of the better and more consistent putters on tour and should not be thrown off, like many players, by these slow greens.
Justin Lower (90-1, DraftKings)
Lower is No. 157 and desperately needs points to keep any sort of status on the PGA Tour next season.
Bermuda might be the place for him to make his move up the standings, with finishes of fifth, eighth, 17th and 20th.
He has made six of his last seven cuts, so he is starting to play better and more consistent golf.
Vince Whaley (95-1, Circa Sports)
Whaley has missed eight of his last 12 cuts and W/D three weeks ago in Utah with a rib injury.
He ranks No. 175 in the FedExCup Fall and looks to be heading down to the Korn Ferry Tour.
However, he is a horse for the course at Port Royal, finishing third, fifth, seventh and eighth in his last four appearances here.
Paul Peterson (160-1, DraftKings)
The journeyman Peterson is well outside the top 100 (157) for a PGA Tour card, but he certainly fits the profile of long shots to hit big here in the last several years.
He was fifth in Puerto Rico and 11th at Myrtle Beach earlier this season and 10th in Hawaii last year, and all three are correlated courses and events to Bermuda.
Other placement market, matchup, or other futures, including the Genesis Championship in Korea (DP World Tour), will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks.
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