Farmers Insurance Open Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds

Farmers Insurance Open Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:

The 2026 PGA Tour season appears as if it is going to be similar to last season, with Scottie Scheffler still the clear No. 1 player in the game. Scheffler cruised to a four-shot victory at 27 under par last weekend to win The American Express at 3-1. Scheffler also picked up his 20th career PGA Tour victory to earn a lifetime exemption on the PGA Tour. 

Scheffler has won 14 times in his last 35 PGA Tour starts, an astonishing win rate of 40%. 

Our nearest pursuer was Ryan Gerard, who finished T-2 along with Jason Day, Matt McCarty and Andrew Putnam. Gerard has three runner-up finishes in his last three worldwide starts. 

This week, Scheffler takes a week off, which is likely a relief not only for bettors but also for the entire field at the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego this weekend. 

The big story this week at Torrey Pines is the return of Brooks Koepka (66-1) to the PGA Tour. Koepka was T-4 here at the 2021 U.S. Open. 

San Diego native Xander Schauffele (14-1) will make his 2026 PGA Tour debut. Schauffele won his last start on tour, the 2025 Baycurrent Classic, for his lone tour title of last season. Schauffele has gotten progressively better at the Farmers Insurance Open in his career. He missed the cut 2016-2018, but he has had three top-15 finishes in his last four starts, including a T-9 in 2024.

While Ludvig Åberg (18-1) is not the returning champion of this event, he did win on this golf course last year, as Torrey Pines served as the venue for the Genesis Invitational because of wildfires in the Los Angeles area. 

After seven runner-up finishes on the PGA Tour over the last three seasons, Cameron Young (22-1) finally broke through late last summer at the Wyndham Championship. 

Si Woo Kim (25-1) was the 54-hole leader last weekend at The American Express before settling for a T-6, which was his fourth consecutive worldwide event finish of 11th or better.

Patrick Cantlay (+2500) led the field in Scrambling last weekend and ended up with a T-13. He was T-5 at Torrey Pines last year when it hosted the Genesis. 

Like Schauffele, J.J. Spaun (30-1) is a fellow San Diego State Aztec, but he has just one top-10 finish (2017) here in the last nine years.

Chris Gotterup (30-1) has made both cuts on two appearances here and won the season opener at the Sony Open in Hawaii two weeks ago. 

Day (33-1) is a two-time Farmers Insurance Open winner (2015, 2018) and was T-2 last week at The American Express. 

Defending champion Harris English (40-1) cashed here as a 100-1 shot for us last year. 

Maverick McNealy (35-1) was runner-up to Åberg at The Genesis Invitational here last year.

The Event   

The Farmers Insurance Open was founded in 1952 as the San Diego Open and was initially played at the San Diego Country Club in Chula Vista. The event is organized by the Century Club of San Diego. The tournament was played at several courses in the San Diego area before finding a permanent home at Torrey Pines Golf Course in 1968. Torrey Pines has hosted a PGA Tour event ever since. This event also had a celebrity host for many years, as entertainer Andy Williams served in that role from 1968 to 1988. The dominant player in this event’s history is Tiger Woods, who has won this event seven times (1999, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2013), and that doesn’t include his 2008 U.S. Open championship. Longtime San Diego resident Phil Mickelson is the only player other than Woods to win this event more than twice (1993, 2000, 2001). Mickelson and J.C. Snead (1975, 1976) are the only two players to win this event in consecutive years. Arnold Palmer (1957, 1961) and Tom Watson (1977, 1980) are also multiple-time winners here. This event is also notable for the fact that Jack Nicklaus never won, but he was part of a memorable finish in 1982 as he shot a final-round 64 to fall one shot short of eventual winner Johnny Miller.  

Note that the event is back to a Thursday-through-Sunday schedule with no NFL Sunday conflicts this year. 

The Field

Ten of the OWGR Top 20 players (No. 6 Schauffele, No. 7 Spaun, No. 10 Rose, No. 11 English, No. 13 Noren, No. 15 Bradley, No. 16 Matsuyama, No. 17 Gotterup, No. 19 Åberg and No. 20 Young) are in this week’s 147-player field at the Farmers Insurance Open. 

The Courses

The Torrey Pines Golf Course in La Jolla is a 36-hole public course owned by the City of San Diego. Two courses will host the event. The North Course and South Course each host the first two rounds, with each player playing both courses before the South Course takes over for the final 36 holes. 

The South Course, which was renovated in 2019 by Rees Jones before the 2021 U.S. Open, is now the longest annual course on the PGA Tour at 7,765 yards. Both courses play at a par-72, but the South Course is the more difficult of the two, as the North Course is just 7,258 yards. 

The South Course is not only 450 yards longer but plays on average close to two strokes higher. The fairways (fourth narrowest on tour at 33-yard average) and rough on the South Course are Kikuyugrass but with a Ryegrass overseed, while the Tom Weiskopf redesigned North Course has Ryegrass overseed fairways and a Rye and Kikuyugrass rough mixture. The South Course greens (fifth smallest on tour at 5,000 square feet) are faster (12.5 stimpmeter) Poa Annua, while the North Course greens are slower (12 stimpmeter) and larger (6,000 square feet) Bentgrass.

Torrey Pines South played as the second-most difficult course last season with an average round score of 73.69 (+1.69 par). It should stay just as difficult this year as the rough is still four inches. There are 82 bunkers on the course and only one water danger hole on the layout.

Correlated courses to the South Course include Glen Abbey, Muirfield Village, Riviera, Augusta National, Quail Hollow, Chapultepec, Olympia Fields and Bethpage Black.

Torrey Pines North typically plays easier but was the ninth-most difficult course on tour last year with an average round score of 72.57 (+0.57). The North Course is a more tree-lined layout that has just 42 bunkers (second fewest on tour) and zero water danger holes. Many of the greens are open-fronted, which allows for bump-and-run type shots. Greens are Bentgrass and run very pure.

Correlated courses to the North Course include Riviera, Chapultepec, Silverado, TPC Scottsdale and Detroit Golf Club. 

Here are the score averages in recent years on the North and South Courses 

Year	North Course	South Course	Difference
2025	72.57 (+0.57)	73.69 (+1.69)	+1.12
2024	69.50 (-2.50)	72.40 (+0.40)	+2.90
2023	71.46 (-0.54)	73.62 (+1.62)	+2.16
2022	68.77 (-3.23)	72.35 (+0.35)	+3.58
2021	70.13 (-1.87)	73.34 (+1.34)	+3.21
2020	70.58 (-1.42)	72.53 (+0.53)	+1.95
2019	69.84 (-2.16)	71.73 (-0.27)	+1.89
2018	71.41 (-0.59)	72.81 (+0.81)	+1.40
2017	71.28 (-0.72)	72.77 (+0.77)	+1.49
2016	70.93 (-1.07)	74.50 (+2.50)	+3.57
2015	70.23 (-1.77)	73.52 (+1.52)	+3.29
2014	70.24 (-1.76)	73.80 (+1.80)	+3.56
2013	70.67 (-1.33)	72.66 (+0.66)	+1.99
2012	69.55 (-2.45)	72.36 (+0.36)	+2.81

While the recent Weiskopf redesign has, by and large, made the North Course slightly more difficult, you can see that players must take advantage of the easier layout to put themselves into contention here.  

Weather

The AccuWeather forecast indicates a nice weekend in San Diego with little to no wind. 

Scoring should be a bit easier than last year with these weather conditions, but Torrey Pines will still play as it does typically, firm and fast. 

Farmers Insurance Open Recent History/Winners

2025: Harris English (-8/280); 100-1

2024: Matthieu Pavon (-13/275); 150-1

2023: Max Homa (-13/275); 22-1

2022: Luke List (-15/273); 90-1*

2021: Patrick Reed (-14/274); 25-1

2020: Marc Leishman (-15/273); 55-1

2019: Justin Rose (-21/267); 14-1

2018: Jason Day (-10/278); 22-1**

2017: Jon Rahm (-13/275); 55-1

2016: Brandt Snedeker (-6/282); 18-1

2015: Jason Day (-9/279); 14-1***

2014: Scott Stallings (-9/279); 250-1

2013: Tiger Woods (-14/274); 15-2

2012: Brandt Snedeker (-16/272); 22-1****

2011: Bubba Watson (-16/272); 66-1

2010: Ben Crane (-13/275); 80-1

Playoff win over Will Zalatoris – *

Playoff win over Alex Noren and Ryan Palmer – **

Playoff win over Harris English, JB Holmes and Scott Stallings – ***

Playoff win over Kyle Stanley – ****

Trends and Angles

Here are some recent Farmers Insurance Open winning trends:

• 15 of the last 17 winners had made at least one start in the calendar year.
• 22 of the last 24 winners were aged 27 or older.
• 27 of the last 32 winners had at least four previous career wins.
• 21 of the last 24 winners had played in at least five previous Farmers Insurance Open events.
• 18 of the last 21 winners had at least one previous Farmers Insurance Open top-10 finish.

Pavon was a bit of an outlier two years ago as he won here on debut. By and large, experience and long-term course knowledge matter here. 

Statistical Analysis

Torrey Pines South Course is the longest course on the PGA Tour, so distance matters, but the fairways are also some of the narrowest on the tour, and Driving Accuracy is only around 52%. Total Driving consists of Driving Distance Rank + Driving Accuracy Rank.

Total Driving (2025 PGA TOUR season) 

1. Michael Thorbjornsen 54 (6 DD + 48 DA)
2. Rico Hoey 68 (50 + 18)
3. Pierceson Coody 82 (26 + 56)
4. Luke List 91 (34 + 57)
5. Kevin Yu 91 (36 + 55)
6. Isaiah Salinda 95 (27 + 68)
7. Kris Ventura 95 (32 + 63)
8. Kevin Roy 99 (65 + 34)
9. Thomas Rosenmueller 103 (39 + 64)
10. William Mouw 107 (35 + 72)
11. Keith Mitchell 108 (12 + 96)
12. Alex Smalley 111 (61 + 50)
13. Steven Fisk 115 (29 + 86)
14. Thorbjørn Olesen 119 (76 + 43)
15. Ricky Castillo 120 (29 + 91)
16. Emiliano Grillo 123 (110 + 13)
17. Ludvig Åberg 124 (14 + 110)
18. Davis Thompson 125 (76 + 49)
19. J.J. Spaun 132 (62 + 70)
20. Gary Woodland 133 (18 + 115)

Five of the last six Farmers winners have rated eighth or better for Scrambling during their respective winning weeks, and Harris English led the field on the way to his Farmers victory last year.

Scrambling (2025 PGA TOUR season)

1. Takumi Kanaya 68.84%
2. Matt Kuchar 67.72
3. Mac Meissner 65.92
4. Garrick Higgo 65.71
5. Vince Whaley 65.55
6. Andrew Putnam 65.15
7. Hideki Matsuyama 64.97
8. Brice Garnett 64.48
9. Lee Hodges 63.86
10. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 63.81
11. Ricky Castillo 63.78
12. Brandt Snedeker 63.72
13. Harris English 63.64
14. Chris Gotterup 63.58
15. Matt Wallace 63.40
16. Alex Smalley 63.22
17. Matt McCarty 62.80
18. Keegan Bradley 62.58
19. Patrick Rodgers 62.42
20. Mackenzie Hughes 62.27

Even the most accurate drivers are going to miss plenty of these narrow fairways. Moreover, the greens at Torrey Pines South are some of the smallest on tour, so players will have to be even more precise with the irons, whether from the fairway or the rough.

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 PGA TOUR season)

1. J.J. Spaun 0.738
2. Rico Hoey 0.667
3. Henrik Norlander 0.667
4. Nicolai Højgaard 0.600
5. Xander Schauffele 0.578
6. Akshay Bhatia 0.575
7. Patrick Cantlay 0.564
8. Doug Ghim 0.531
9. Sami Valimaki 0.516
10. Hideki Matsuyama 0.483
11. Aaron Rai 0.476
12. Lee Hodges 0.465
13. Ryan Gerard 0.457
14. Si Woo Kim 0.425
15. Thomas Rosenmueller 0.406
16. Gary Woodland 0.364
17. Mac Meissner 0.340
18. Tom Hoge 0.311
19. Kevin Yu 0.310
20. Emiliano Grillo 0.303

Slightly over one-third of the approach shots will come from 200 yards and out. 

Approaches from > 200 Yards — Fairway (2025 PGA TOUR season)

1. Ludvig Åberg 43′ 10″ (average distance from the hole)
2. Matti Schmid 44′ 2″
3. Hideki Matsuyama 44′ 8″
4. Gary Woodland 45′ 3″
5. Michael Thorbjornsen 45′ 7″
6. Ryan Gerard 45′ 8″
7. Kevin Roy 45′ 8″
8. Rico Hoey 46′ 2″
9. Adam Schenk 46′ 4″
10. Adam Scott 46′ 5″
11. Nicolai Højgaard 46′ 6″
12. Lanto Griffin 46′ 8″
13. Austin Eckroat 46′ 11″
14. Akshay Bhatia 47′ 2″
15. Tom Hoge 47′ 3″
16. Pierceson Coody 47′ 5″
17. Thomas Rosenmueller 47′ 7″
18. Xander Schauffele 47′ 8″
19. Jackson Suber 47′ 8″
20. Kris Ventura 47′ 8″

Torrey Pines South has pure Poa greens. They are fast (12.5 stimpmeter) but also bumpy and unpredictable.

Strokes Gained: Putting — Poa Greens — Average Per Round (Minimum 12 rounds)

1. Justin Hastings 1.181
2. Pierceson Coody 0.905
3. Sami Valimaki 0.898
4. Adrien Dumont De Chassart 0.802
5. SH Kim 0.680
6. Brandt Snedeker 0.577
7. Wyndham Clark 0.558
8. Maverick McNealy 0.556
9. Akshay Bhatia 0.533
10. Andrew Novak 0.526
11. Jesper Svensson 0.506
12. Andrew Putnam 0.504
13. Lee Hodges 0.501
14. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.494
15. Sahith Theegala 0.489
16. Dylan Wu 0.484
17. Austin Eckroat 0.457
18. Denny McCarthy 0.451
19. John Keefer 0.440
20. Peter Malnati 0.431

Torrey Pines South is a challenging course, and it is easy to drop shots in a hurry here.

Bogey Avoidance (2025 PGA TOUR season) 

1. Garrick Higgo 11.92% (percentage of time player makes bogey)
2. Andrew Putnam 12.20
3. Vince Whaley 12.33
4. Brice Garnett 12.42
5. Matt Kuchar 12.42
6. Lee Hodges 12.68
7. Takumi Kanaya 12.96
8. Pierceson Coody 13.03
9. Jeremy Paul 13.21
10. Chris Gotterup 13.25
11. Mac Meissner 13.36
12. Thorbjørn Olesen 13.46
13. Kevin Roy 13.60
14. Ricky Castillo 13.68
15. J.J. Spaun 13.68
16. Chad Ramey 13.72
17. Michael Thorbjornsen 13.72
18. Harris English 13.83
19. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 13.86
20. Brandt Snedeker 13.89

In recent years, scoring has been around low teens under par, so players are going to need to score on par-5s especially. 

Par-5 Scoring Average (2025 PGA TOUR season)

1. Pierceson Coody 4.42
2. Xander Schauffele 4.46
3. Jake Knapp 4.47
4. Nicolai Højgaard 4.48
5. Luke Clanton 4.49
6. Jesper Svensson 4.49
7. Michael Thorbjornsen 4.50
8. Vince Whaley 4.50
9. Rico Hoey 4.51
10. Keith Mitchell 4.51
11. Matt Wallace 4.51
12. Taylor Moore 4.52
13. Taylor Pendrith 4.52
14. Adam Scott 4.52
15. Garrick Higgo 4.53
16. David Lipsky 4.53
17. Max McGreevy 4.53
18. Kevin Yu 4.53

As mentioned above, Torrey Pines is an arduous and long layout.

Strokes Gained: Hard Courses — Average Per Round (Last 100 rounds)

1. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 2.325
2. Sam Stevens 1.825
3. Max Greyserman 1.825
4. Chris Gotterup 1.825
5. Xander Schauffele 1.734
6. Tom Kim 1.575
7. Jason Day 1.543
8. Brooks Koepka 1.512
9. Luke List 1.434
10. Cameron Young 1.392
11. Luke List 1.362
12. Gary Woodland 1.332
13. Charley Hoffman 1.307
14. Matt Kuchar 1.230
15. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 1.212
16. Harris English 1.204
17. Patrick Cantlay 1.202
18. Tony Finau 1.189
19. Will Zalatoris 1.167
20. Patrick Rodgers 1.106

Strokes Gained: Long Courses — Average Per Round (Last 100 rounds)

1. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 2.461
2. Xander Schauffele 1.460
3. Tony Finau 1.239
4. Ludvig Åberg 1.162
5. Justin Rose 1.121
6. Adam Scott 1.107
7. Patrick Cantlay 1.102
8. Hideki Matsuyama 1.068
9. Brooks Koepka 0.996
10. Jason Day 0.902
11. Will Zalatoris 0.899
12. Jordan Smith 0.848
13. Sam Stevens 0.741
14. Denny McCarthy 0.737
15. Keegan Bradley 0.729
16. Matt Kuchar 0.724
17. Aaron Wise 0.714
18. Max Greyserman 0.692
19. Akshay Bhatia 0.675
20. Maverick McNealy 0.661

Selections

Patrick Cantlay (24-1, Circa Sports)

Cantlay led the field in Scrambling but settled for T13 last weekend at The American Express.

The Southern California native has not been a regular fixture at Torrey Pines but did finish fourth on this course last year at the Genesis Invitational.

He has not been in the winner’s circle since August 2022, but he has not played poor golf and was top 10 on the PGA Tour last season for Total Strokes Gained. 

The familiarity with the Poa Annua greens should give Cantlay a leg up on the field and put him in contention. 

Maverick McNealy (35-1, Circa Sports)

McNealy finished runner-up at Torrey Pines last year in the Genesis Invitational.

While he was not able to follow up his 2024 win at the RSM Classic in 2025, McNealy did post a runner-up, three third-place finishes and three other top-10s in mostly Signature events against the best competition and rose to the top 10 in the OWGR at one point.

Growing up in California, he is as adept as anyone in the field at putting on these bumpy Poa Annua greens. 

Wyndham Clark (50-1, BetRivers)

Clark did not do all that much of note on the course in 2025, save for top-5s at the British Open and Houston. His most publicized exploit was trashing his locker at Oakmont during the U.S. Open, where he received a ban from the property unless he met certain parameters laid out by the club.

However, the 2023 U.S. Open champion has shown a bit of life on the course lately, finishing eighth at the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas in mid-December, which saw Clark as the 18- and 36-hole leader.

Last week, he finished 13th at The American Express and shot 64 on the Pete Dye Stadium Course before being stuck in neutral for Sunday’s final round with a 72. 

Clark is a two-time winner in California — 2023 U.S. Open and 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am — and is typically a good fit on a longer, more classical golf course design like Torrey Pines. 

Sam Stevens (50-1, DraftKings)

Stevens finished runner-up here last year to Harris English and had an opportunity to win despite being on the tough end of the weather draw.

He finished 2025 with a seventh at the RSM Classic and was T-6 last week at The American Express.

Stevens has made the cut all four times at Torrey Pines.

Patrick Rodgers (63-1, Circa Sports)

Rodgers kicked off the season with a third at the Sony Open and now comes to an event where it is difficult to keep consistent form, but he has managed to do so.

He has finished ninth or better in four of his last nine years here, including a fourth at the Genesis Invitational last year.

It is hard to believe that Rodgers is just 33 years old, considering he has been on the PGA Tour since 2014, yet has never been able to achieve victory. Veterans have fared well here over the years, and experience does matter, so perhaps another grizzled veteran gets across the line at Torrey Pines.

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (80-1, Bet365)

Neergaard-Petersen started 2026 playing the Dubai swing and did not do much of note (45, 19) but ended his 2025 campaign winning his first DP World Tour event at the Crown Australian Open, a co-sanctioned event with the PGA Tour of Australasia. 

The Dane is one of the 10 players from the DP World Tour who earned PGA Tour cards for 2026 largely because of four top-5 finishes (two runners-up in Qatar and Puerto Rico) in his rookie season on the DPWT. He birdied three of his last four holes in the final round of the DP World Tour Championship to finish T-3 and secure his PGA Tour card.

He ranked sixth for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and nnth for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green last year on the DPWT. Perhaps Neergaard-Petersen can be like Matthieu Pavon two years ago as a European outlier who can hit the board here.

Tony Finau (180-1, DraftKings)

Finau was 22-1 this time last year in the Farmers Insurance Open and missed the cut but ended up finishing eighth on this course for the Genesis Invitational. He has finished inside the top 9 at Torrey Pines in seven of the last nine years.

So why is he this big of a price? Well, because he does not have a top-10 anywhere since that Genesis Invitational, and his game has been well below standard for the last several months, including missing his first two cuts in 2026.

He did have ankle surgery last fall, so he is still working his way back, but coming back to a course where he has always played well might be what is needed to turn Tony’s game around. 

Placement market and/or matchup wagers will be posted on Wednesday at VSiN.com.