FedEx St. Jude Championship Best Bets and Golf Odds:

Michael Brennan came into last weekend’s Wyndham Championship, the final tournament of the regular season, at No. 105 in the FedExCup. His season had been a disappointing one with only one top 10 finish. That all came to an end last Sunday as Brennan, a pre-tournament price of 50/1, ran off five straight birdies starting on the fourth hole, all of them inside 8 feet. That turned a deficit into a three-shot lead at the turn and eventually a three-shot victory to earn his second PGA TOUR victory and earn himself a spot in the FedExCup Playoffs, which begin this week in Memphis at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. 

The top 70 (actually 69 with Daniel Berger W/D last week from the Wyndham and also missing this week) in the FedExCup points list are in Memphis. 

2024 FedExCup winner Scottie Scheffler (5/1) currently leads the point standings despite having just one victory thus far in the 2026 season and has finished 3rd and 4th here in Memphis the last two years. 

Three-time FedExCup champion (2016, 2019, 2022) Rory McIlroy (14/1) has played a fairly light schedule this year with just 11 PGA TOUR events but has always prioritized the FedExCup. 

Xander Schauffele (18/1), runner-up here in 2024, is still seeking his first victory in 2026 as is defending FedExCup champion Tommy Fleetwood (20/1), who has finished 3rd here in two of the last three years.

Cameron Young (22/1), a top 5 finisher here last year, is certainly on the short list for PGA TOUR Player of the Year with victories at THE PLAYERS Championship and Cadillac Championship. 

Sam Burns (22/1), runner-up here in 2021, is looking to erase the disappointment of finishing runner-up at the U.S. Open and 3rd at The Open Championship. 

Other players who currently rank inside the top 10 of the FedExCup points include Matt Fitzpatrick (25/1), Collin Morikawa (25/1), Ludvig Åberg (25/1), Si Woo Kim (33/1), Chris Gotterup (33/1), and Wyndham Clark (40/1). 

Justin Rose (60/1) is back to defend his title from last year’s event which he won by defeating J.J. Spaun (55/1) in a playoff. 

Other former winners in Memphis that are part of this week’s field include Hideki Matsuyama (25/1), Justin Thomas (33/1), and Harris English (90/1). 

The Field

While there is no cut in this $20 million purse ($3.6 million to the winner) event for this week, the cut will be made after the event as only the top 50 in the FedExCup points will play in next week’s BMW Championship at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis. This takes on even more significance as the 50 players who advance to next week will earn spots in all of next year’s “Signature Events” on the 2027 PGA TOUR schedule. 

These are the following scenarios for players currently either on the bubble or outside the top 50 for players to reach next week’s BMW:

RankMin Finish
49Keith MitchellSolo 68th
50Maverick McNealy— 
51Harris EnglishSolo 31st
52Max HomaTwo-Way T25
53Sungjae ImTwo-Way T24
54Jordan SpiethSolo 23rd
55Sam StevensTwo-Way T17
56Pierceson CoodySolo 17th
57Sudarshan YellamarajuThree-Way T16
58Harry HallTwo-Way T16
59Corey ConnersTwo-Way T14
61Michael KimThree-Way T12
62Shane LowryTwo-Way T11
63Nick TaylorSolo 10th
64Jordan SmithTwo-Way T9
65Brian HarmanTwo-Way T8
66Patrick RodgersTwo-Way T8
67Aldrich PotgieterThree-Way T7
68Ricky CastilloThree-Way T7
69Matti SchmidTwo-Way T7
70Jackson KoivunTwo-Way T7

The Course

Located in Memphis, TN, TPC Southwind was built in 1988 and was designed by Ron Prichard, in consultation with PGA TOUR professionals Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green. It is regarded as one of the more difficult TPC courses. 

The layout plays as a 7,288-yard Par 70. The Zoysiagrass (like East Lake in Atlanta) fairways are some of the narrowest (27 yards wide on average – 7th narrowest out of 44 PGA TOUR courses) on TOUR.

The Bermuda rough measures to 3″ and can be tricky and unpredictable.

The greens are comprised of Champion Bermudagrass that are straightforward and average speed (12 stimpmeter) but are some of the smallest (3rd on TOUR) at just 4,500 square feet average.

There are 75 bunkers on the layout, many of which are deep and protect the greens. 

With 11 holes having the danger of water, TPC Southwind has the most “water balls” on TOUR by far. 

There was a renovation two years ago which included the rebuilding and resurfacing of all 18 greens. All the tee boxes were also resurfaced. 

Here is the official FedEx St. Jude Championship scorecard courtesy of PGATOUR.com:

Comparable courses include East Lake (site of the TOUR Championship in two weeks), TPC Sawgrass, PGA National, Innisbrook, and Sedgefield.

Weather

The AccuWeather forecast is fairly self-explanatory for this time of year in Memphis. It is early August, so this is one of the hottest events of the season. 

Although there could be some short thunderstorms on Thursday/Friday, the greens will be watered, and the fairways will have some roll. 

FedEx St. Jude Recent History/Winners

FedEx St. Jude Championship
2025: Justin Rose (-16/264); 100/1*
2024: Hideki Matsuyama (-17/263); 25/1
2023: Lucas Glover (-15/265); 90/1**
2022: Will Zalatoris (-15/265); 28/1***

WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational
2021: Abraham Ancer (-16/264); 45/1****
2020: Justin Thomas (-13/267); 12/1
2019: Brooks Koepka (-16/264); 11/1

FedEx St. Jude Classic
2018: Dustin Johnson (-19/261); 7/1
2017: Daniel Berger (-10/270); 28/1
2016: Daniel Berger (-13/267); 33/1
2015: Fabián Gómez (-13/267); 400/1
2014: Ben Crane (-10/270); 175/1
2013: Harris English (-12/268); 66/1
2012: Dustin Johnson (-9/271); 20/1
2011: Harrison Frazar (-13/267); 275/1*****
2010: Lee Westwood (-10/270); 12/1******

Playoff Win over J.J. Spaun – *
Playoff Win over Patrick Cantlay – **
Playoff Win over Sepp Straka – ***
Playoff Win over Sam Burns and Hideki Matsuyama – ****
Playoff Win over Robert Karlsson – *****
Playoff Win over Robert Garrigus & Robert Karlsson – ******

You will notice a common theme amongst most of the recent winners here in that they are all proficient with approach play. 

Statistical Analysis

Four of the last eight winners here at TPC Southwind ranked 3rd or better in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach during their respective winning weeks. 

Strokes Gained: Approach – Average Per Round (2026 PGA TOUR season)

  1. Alex Fitzpatrick 0.925
  2. Matt Fitzpatrick 0.846
  3. Collin Morikawa 0.842
  4. Si Woo Kim 0.742
  5. J.J. Spaun 0.710
  6. Tom Kim 0.704
  7. Adam Scott 0.610
  8. Jackson Koivun 0.596
  9. Scottie Scheffler 0.589
  10. Kurt Kitayama 0.578
  11. Ludvig Åberg 0.559
  12. Cameron Young 0.521
  13. Viktor Hovland 0.507
  14. Justin Rose 0.495
  15. Shane Lowry 0.490
  16. Patrick Cantlay 0.482
  17. Jake Knapp 0.464
  18. Aaron Rai 0.448
  19. Ryan Gerard 0.424
  20. Hideki Matsuyama 0.423
  21. Wyndham Clark 0.405
  22. Rory McIlroy 0.396
  23. Alex Smalley 0.390

There are 12 doglegs and the seventh-narrowest fairways on TOUR here at TPC Southwind. Plus, there are 11 water danger holes and tricky Bermuda rough. Players can still attack with driver, but they also must find fairways and avoid the penalty areas. Total Driving is comprised of Driving Distance Ranking + Driving Accuracy Ranking.

Total Driving (2026 PGA TOUR season)

  1. Jackson Koivun 58 (55 + 3)
  2. Jordan Smith 60 (34 + 26)
  3. Alex Fitzpatrick 65 (35 + 30)
  4. Cameron Young 73 (16 + 57)
  5. Scottie Scheffler 74 (46 + 28)
  6. Ludvig Åberg 75 (17 + 58)
  7. Gary Woodland 91 (6 + 85)
  8. Sudarshan Yellamaraju 92 (25 + 67)
  9. Michael Brennan 93 (2 + 91)
  10. Xander Schauffele 93 (13 + 80)
  11. Kurt Kitayama 94 (25 + 69)
  12. Michael Thorbjornsen 97 (27 + 70)
  13. Matt Fitzpatrick 99 (82 + 17)
  14. Min Woo Lee 101 (8 + 93)
  15. Justin Thomas 103 (53 + 50)
  16. Collin Morikawa 105 (98 + 7)
  17. Harris English 115 (70 + 45)
  18. Tommy Fleetwood 115 (103 + 12)
  19. Keegan Bradley 116 (39 + 77)
  20. Ryan Gerard 117 (81 + 36)
  21. Ryo Hisatsune 118 (79 + 39)
  22. Corey Conners 119 (98 + 21)
  23. Viktor Hovland 119 (92 + 27)

With these narrow landing zones, it is more difficult to find fairways. While players can overpower some of the dog legs, positional golf off the tee is vital.

Fairways Hit Percentage (2026 PGA TOUR season)

  1. Russell Henley 72.90%
  2. Aaron Rai 70.46
  3. Si Woo Kim 69.60
  4. Collin Morikawa 69.05
  5. Tommy Fleetwood 68.22
  6. Corey Conners 67.55
  7. Matt Fitzpatrick 67.25
  8. Scottie Scheffler 65.81
  9. Viktor Hovland 65.60
  10. Alex Noren 65.55
  11. Jordan Smith 65.28
  12. J.J. Spaun 65.24
  13. Tom Kim 65.11
  14. Shane Lowry 63.66
  15. J.T. Poston 63.32
  16. Rickie Fowler 63.23
  17. Ryan Gerard 63.19
  18. Ryo Hisatsune 62.91
  19. Brian Harman 62.81
  20. Ludvig Åberg 62.75

Good Drive Percentage is a measure for par 4 and par 5’s by calculating the sum of fairways hit and number of greens or fringe in regulation (when the drive was not in the fairway on the tee shot), divided by the number of par 4 and par 5’s played.

Good Drive Percentage (2026 PGA TOUR season)

  1. Scottie Scheffler 86.57%
  2. Collin Morikawa 86.22
  3. Aaron Rai 85.63
  4. Matt Fitzpatrick 85.57
  5. Russell Henley 85.44
  6. Tom Kim 85.21
  7. Si Woo Kim 85.05
  8. Jordan Smith 84.37
  9. Kurt Kitayama 84.21
  10. J.J. Spaun 84.02
  11. Ryo Hisatsune 83.81
  12. Tommy Fleetwood 83.78
  13. Shane Lowry 83.48
  14. Rickie Fowler 83.41
  15. Patrick Cantlay 83.38
  16. Ryan Gerard 83.33
  17. Ben Griffin 83.22
  18. Cameron Young 83.17
  19. Alex Smalley 83.11
  20. Ludvig Åberg 82.87

The greens are fairly forgiving here at TPC Southwind, so players that give themselves the most birdie opportunities, even with mediocre putting, will be the ones that contend. Scoring Opportunities Gained – Birdie opportunities inside 15 ft from green or fringe PLUS Greens/Fringe Under Regulation. (NOTE: A green or fringe under regulation within 15 feet counts as 2 opportunities)

Opportunities Gained (Last 50 Rounds)

  1. Tom Kim 28.6
  2. J.J. Spaun 26.8
  3. Eric Cole 25.1
  4. Jackson Koivun 25.1
  5. Michael Brennan 24.7
  6. Si Woo Kim 24.2
  7. Jacob Bridgeman 24.1
  8. Russell Henley 24.0
  9. Nick Taylor 24.0
  10. Cameron Young 23.5
  11. Matt McCarty 23.5
  12. Collin Morikawa 23.4
  13. Jake Knapp 23.4
  14. Alex Fitzpatrick 23.4
  15. Rory McIlroy 23.2
  16. Justin Thomas 23.2
  17. Corey Conners 23.0
  18. Keith Mitchell 22.9
  19. Hideki Matsuyama 22.9
  20. Kurt Kitayama 22.7
  21. Aaron Rai 22.7
  22. Ryan Gerard 22.6

TPC Southwind has some of the smallest greens on TOUR, so even players that are especially sharp with the irons will miss at least a few of them. Therefore, they will have to scramble in order to save pars. Three of the last seven winners here led the field in Scrambling during their respective winning weeks.

Scrambling Percentage (2026 PGA TOUR season)

  1. Scottie Scheffler 67.28%
  2. Tommy Fleetwood 66.40
  3. Tom Kim 66.33
  4. Cameron Young 65.87
  5. Michael Thorbjornsen 65.27
  6. Russell Henley 65.08
  7. Patrick Cantlay 65.06
  8. Hideki Matsuyama 64.48
  9. Xander Schauffele 64.43
  10. Ricky Castillo 63.57
  11. Ben Griffin 63.53
  12. Harris English 63.22
  13. Matt Fitzpatrick 63.02
  14. Maverick McNealy 62.47
  15. Sudarshan Yellamaraju 62.33
  16. Bud Cauley 62.27
  17. Min Woo Lee 62.13
  18. Jordan Spieth 62.07
  19. Wyndham Clark 61.90
  20. Alex Noren 61.89

Six of the 12 par 4s on the layout measure between 450 and 500 yards, including the final two holes.

Strokes Gained Par 4s 450-500 Yards – Average Per Round (Last 50 Rounds)

  1. Gary Woodland 0.21
  2. Scottie Scheffler 0.18
  3. Jackson Koivun 0.18
  4. Justin Rose 0.15
  5. Rory McIlroy 0.13
  6. Alex Smalley 0.13
  7. Tommy Fleetwood 0.13
  8. Michael Thorbjornsen 0.11
  9. Sam Burns 0.10
  10. Xander Schauffele 0.10
  11. Ryan Gerard 0.10
  12. J.J. Spaun 0.09
  13. Collin Morikawa 0.09
  14. Min Woo Lee 0.09
  15. Akshay Bhatia 0.08
  16. Wyndham Clark 0.08
  17. Nick Taylor 0.08
  18. Patrick Cantlay 0.07
  19. Si Woo Kim 0.07
  20. Jake Knapp 0.07
  21. Adam Scott 0.07
  22. Matt McCarty 0.07

The greens at TPC Southwind have fairly accessible pins and are straightforward with few undulations, so putting will not be a major separator this week, but it is still good to look at those putters who are good on Bermuda greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting – Average Per Round – Bermuda Greens (Last 50 Rounds)

  1. Sam Burns 0.81
  2. Maverick McNealy 0.75
  3. Akshay Bhatia 0.71
  4. Alex Noren 0.60
  5. Eric Cole 0.56
  6. Nick Taylor 0.52
  7. Ryan Gerard 0.51
  8. Russell Henley 0.51
  9. Wyndham Clark 0.51
  10. Michael Kim 0.47
  11. Collin Morikawa 0.44
  12. Robert MacIntyre 0.44
  13. Alex Smalley 0.43
  14. Chris Gotterup 0.43
  15. Ben Griffin 0.42
  16. Scottie Scheffler 0.41
  17. Harris English 0.38
  18. Max Homa 0.38
  19. Tommy Fleetwood 0.36
  20. Sungjae Im 0.35
  21. Jake Knapp 0.35

TPC Southwind is right in the middle of the pack on the PGA TOUR for scoring difficulty and mid-teens under par typically wins here, but this is a fairly strategic course with plenty of opportunities both to score low and make big scores.

Birdie or Better Percentage (2026 PGA TOUR season)

  1. Rory McIlroy 34.56
  2. Alex Fitzpatrick 29.56
  3. Jackson Koivun 29.29
  4. Scottie Scheffler 27.19
  5. Si Woo Kim 25.75
  6. Collin Morikawa 25.56
  7. Wyndham Clark 25.42
  8. Jake Knapp 25.00
  9. Ludvig Åberg 24.84
  10. Keith Mitchell 24.36
  11. Sam Burns 24.28
  12. Jacob Bridgeman 24.22
  13. Robert MacIntyre 24.07
  14. Eric Cole 24.00
  15. Matt Fitzpatrick 23.99
  16. Akshay Bhatia 23.92
  17. Maverick McNealy 23.92
  18. Ryan Gerard 23.89
  19. Michael Brennan 23.88
  20. Min Woo Lee 23.75
  21. Chris Gotterup 23.54
  22. Cameron Young 23.45
  23. Viktor Hovland 23.41

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2026 PGA TOUR season)

  1. Scottie Scheffler 10.02
  2. Jackson Koivun 11.62
  3. Tom Kim 12.35
  4. Tommy Fleetwood 12.63
  5. Michael Thorbjornsen 12.65
  6. Patrick Cantlay 12.69
  7. Matt Fitzpatrick 12.79
  8. Russell Henley 12.90
  9. Cameron Young 12.99
  10. Si Woo Kim 13.21
  11. Xander Schauffele 13.37
  12. Rickie Fowler 13.38
  13. Ben Griffin 13.60
  14. Sam Burns 13.80
  15. Jordan Smith 13.89
  16. Kurt Kitayama 13.93
  17. Jacob Bridgeman 13.96
  18. Alex Smalley 14.04
  19. Rory McIlroy 14.29
  20. Sudarshan Yellamaraju 14.32
  21. Chris Gotterup 14.33
  22. Alex Fitzpatrick 14.33
  23. Shane Lowry 14.38

Selections

Several sportsbooks are offering without Scottie Scheffler markets. At press time, FanDuel, Caesars, and Bet365 are the national books offering without Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy markets, and that is where I will be focusing this week. 

Tommy Fleetwood 17/1 FanDuel

We had Fleetwood here last year as he led on the Sunday back nine only to fall one shot short and miss the playoff altogether. Two weeks later, he finally broke through and won his first event on American soil at the TOUR Championship. Four weeks ago, Fleetwood finished T-4 at The Open in his hometown of Southport, England. He has not played since, but he has had some time to move on from coming up short at the major. Fleetwood has finished 3rd here twice in the last three years. Tommy has seven top 15 finishes in his last eight starts, and TPC Southwind is a course that caters to his strengths: driving accuracy, iron play, and putting on Bermuda greens. 

Viktor Hovland 25/1 FanDuel

Hovland has been one of the TOUR’s best with the wedges this year and leads the TOUR for approaches from 175-200 yards. He has also improved his driving accuracy this season. The Norwegian finished runner-up here two years ago and seems to like TPC Southwind, as he explained. “I think this is one of my favorite courses that we play all year. It’s not super tricked up. Everything is right there in front of you. But yet you have certain angles, a lot of branches and trees that are just in the way to make everything more tricky, and I just think it’s a genius golf course.”

Si Woo Kim 25/1 FanDuel

Si Woo comes in with some momentum, having finished 6th at The Open, which was the best major championship finish of his career. A win in 2026 has thus far eluded him, but he has been close with five top 5 finishes. The ballstriking has been terrific all season, but the putter, historically a weakness for Si Woo, has gained in five of his last eight starts and all four of his PGA TOUR victories have been at courses with Bermuda greens. 

Russell Henley 28/1 Caesars 

While Henley disappointed by missing the cut at the PGA and finishing T-65 at the U.S. Open, he did finish 3rd at The Masters and 9th at The Open last month and has been in solid form after his victory in the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial this past May as he has gone 12-9-20 in his last three events. Henley is ranked top ten in this field for Strokes Gained: Putting and Scrambling and is also top five for Good Drives and leads this field altogether for Fairways Hit. The record here in Memphis is a bit mixed, but Henley does have a couple of top 7 finishes here on a course that caters to ball strikers of which Henley is one of the TOUR’s best. 

Rickie Fowler 45/1 Caesars

Fowler has not gotten back in the winner’s circle in 2026, but this has been a very consistent season with five top 10 finishes and five other top 20 finishes, including in each of his last three starts. He was 6th here last year. His numbers in all strokes gained categories have been his best in four years, and this could be a week where he challenges for a victory. 

Placement markets, props, matchups and/or other bets will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks. 

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