On Thursday, August 13, the 2026 Cincinnati Open kicks off from the Lindner Family Tennis Center in Mason, Ohio. As the last big hard-court tune-up event before the US Open, Cincinnati is one of the most important 1000-level tournaments on the tennis calendar. On the men’s side of the draw, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will be absent as they hope to make some last-minute physical improvements in order to be available for the season’s final major. That opens things up to the rest of the players in the draw, though studs like Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic, and Rafael Jodar will be in the field. On the women’s side, Iga Swiatek is back to defend her title, but Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Coco Gauff, and Mirra Andreeva are all in the field. We haven’t seen nearly as many major injuries on the WTA Tour as we have the ATP Tour, and that makes for some fantastic drama on the women’s side of things. But either way, we should be in for some great tennis over the next couple of weeks. With that in mind, let’s break it all down before you lock in your futures.
Cincinnati Open playing conditions
The hard courts at the Lindner Family Tennis Center have long been viewed as some of the fastest on tour. Tennis Abstract’s Surface Speed numbers have the Cincinnati Open at 1.19, which is well above average. That number comes from the increase in aces you see at the event, and the baseline play is no different. Shots speed through the courts in Cincinnati, favoring big servers, players that take the ball early, and players that dictate points with pace.
The weather is also important in Cincinnati. When temperatures climb into the high 80s and low 90s, the speed of play tends to pick up during the day. However, when conditions cool off and humidity increases at night, play slows down significantly. That said, you want to be mindful of the session-to-session swings you get when handicapping day and night matches.
Cincinnati Open women’s futures
Aryna Sabalenka To Win Quarter 1 (-120 – 3 units) & Cincinnati Open (+275) – Sabalenka has taken some miserable losses recently, but it’s hard to see her slumping through the entire hard-court season. While she has to prove she can handle the ebbs and flows of matches again, she still has a massive serve, elite ball-striking ability, and a hard-court pedigree that nobody else can match. Sabalenka is also just two years removed from winning this tournament, and she has a pretty manageable draw. It’s hard to envision her losing her matches in the second or third rounds, and I’d be pretty stunned if she can’t win a potential rematch against Ekaterina Alexandrova in the Round of 16. That said, I’m viewing this as a three-unit play on Sabalenka to win her match in the quarterfinals at -120. And if I’m worried about her opponent there, I’ll find a way to hedge to lock in some profits.
Mirra Andreeva To Win Quarter 2 (+275) – Andreeva hasn’t looked sharp since winning her maiden Grand Slam at Roland Garros, but she has a good opportunity to play her way into form in Cincinnati. Andreeva has extremely winnable matchups in Round 2 and Round 3, which should allow her to build some confidence before potentially taking on Marta Kostyuk in the Round of 16. Well, if Andreeva is even remotely close to playing her best tennis, that’s a match she should win. Her returning is just too good for a shaky server like Kostyuk. Then, in the quarterfinals, we’d potentially see Andreeva against Coco Gauff or Iva Jovic — unless Liudmila Samsonova finds her way there. Those would be tough matches for the Russian, but we’d have a +275 ticket to play around with.
Jessica Pegula To Win Quarter 3 (+225 – 2 units) & Cincinnati Open (14-1 – 0.25 units) – Pegula’s flat ball-striking should make her extremely dangerous in these quicker Cincinnati conditions, and it’s hard not to love her draw. Unless something goes horribly wrong, we should see the American in the quarterfinals. From there, things get much tougher on Pegula, as she could see Linda Noskova, Alexandra Eala, or Amanda Anisimova there. But I like Pegula’s chances of beating those players in this specific venue. Also, depending on the pricing, we could potentially hedge later in the event. Pegula has been to the finals here before, so it’s not like she hasn’t had success in this tournament. And while her mind is definitely set on the US Open, I can see her playing some good tennis beforehand.
Cincinnati Open men’s futures
Novak Djokovic To Win Quarter 2 (+175 – 1.5 units) & Cincinnati Open (+600 – 0.5 units) – Djokovic might not care much about making a deep run at a 1000 at this point, but he might do it by accident. The Serbian’s only obstacle to making the Round of 16 is Jack Draper, who hasn’t been able to stay healthy this season. And if Djokovic does make the Round of 16, it’s likely he’ll take on Jakub Mensik. Well, I’m also grabbing Mensik to win this quarter, as I believe the semifinalist will come from the top half of this section. I like the all-around games of Djokovic and Mensik to get the better of Jiri Lehecka, Arthur Fils, or Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals. I’m also taking a small piece of Djokovic to win this event, as I still believe he’s the third-best player in men’s tennis. So, without Alcaraz and Sinner, he’s my top player in the field.
Jakub Mensik To Win Quarter 2 (+650 – 0.5 units) – Mensik takes some bad losses here and there, but we have seen him win a 1000 in quicker conditions before. He’s just such a high-level server that he can easily breeze through service games, and his ability to play from the back of the court is super underrated. So, if Djokovic isn’t the player that ends up winning this quarter, I can see it being the Czech. I’m not dinging him too much for his straight-set loss to Ben Shelton, who has been hot as can be lately.
Felix Auger-Aliassime To Win Quarter 4 (+500) & Cincinnati Open (27-1 – 0.25 units) – Auger-Aliassime hasn’t played since Wimbledon, so he’ll really be feeling things out early in Cincinnati. However, with his ability to bomb serves and rip forehands, there’s a good chance he does some damage. An early-round meeting with Stefanos Tsitsipas could pose some problems for the Canadian, but it’s really hard not to see some value in FAA’s quarter and outright prices. While Shelton is the player most likely to advance to the semifinals from this quarter, Auger-Aliassime’s game is a perfect fit for these courts. He has also proven to be a big-match player, so I don’t see him slipping up too early.
