Masters 2024 Best Bets

“A Tradition Unlike Any Other” is here this week as the year’s first major takes place with the 88th Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club. For the first time since July at the British Open, all of the world’s top golfers are at the same venue. In fact, every player in the OWGR Top 55 is at Augusta this week.

The field is headed by the No. 1 player in the world Scottie Scheffler (4-1), who won the Masters two years ago and last month won the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship, becoming the first player in history to repeat there. Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in a multitude of categories, including Strokes Gained: Total, Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green, Strokes Gained: Approach, Greens In Regulation, Birdie Or Better Percentage, Scoring Average, Birdie Average, etc. Simply put, Scheffler is the best player in the world right now and is clearly the man to beat this week. 

 

Rory McIlroy (10-1), third on Sunday at the Valero Texas Open, is taking his 10th crack at completing the career Grand Slam at the Masters. McIlroy has had his opportunities, most famously in 2011. He has finished in the top 10 in seven of the last nine Masters, including a runner-up in 2022 but is coming off a missed cut last year.

Jon Rahm (12-1) is the defending champion and is looking to become the first player to win back-to-back green jackets since Tiger Woods in 2002. Rahm won the green jacket in a come-from-behind triumph on a marathon final day at Augusta. Rahm was four shots behind the leader, Brooks Koepka, to start Sunday and had to play 30 holes because of weather knocking out much of Saturday’s third round. Last December, Rahm joined LIV Golf in December and has not won any of the five events this season but has finished eighth or better in all of them. 

Players seeking a first major championship include Xander Schauffele (16-1), Joaquin Niemann (28-1), Ludvig Åberg (35-1), Patrick Cantlay (35-1), Will Zalatoris (35-1), Viktor Hovland (35-1), Tony Finau (40-1), Cameron Young (50-1), Sahith Theegala (50-1), Tommy Fleetwood (50-1) and Max Homa (55-1). 

In addition to Rahm, other 2023 major champions are PGA Championship winner Brooks Koepka (25-1), U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark (35-1) and British Open champion Brian Harman (66-1). 

Almost a quarter of the 89-player field, 20 to be exact, are debutants at Augusta National, including Åberg, Clark and Akshay Bhatia (100-1), who won in a playoff at the Valero Texas Open on Sunday to earn his Masters invitation. The last first-timer to win the Masters was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

And then, there’s Tiger Woods (150-1) who is trying to simply complete four rounds in an official tournament for the first time since the 2023 Genesis Invitational. 

The Event

The Masters began in 1934 and has been held at the Augusta National Golf Club each year. Since 1949, a green jacket has been awarded to the champion who must return it to the clubhouse one year after his victory, although it remains his personal property and is stored with other champions’ jackets in a specially designated cloakroom. The winner also receives a sterling replica of the Masters trophy and a gold medal to go along with the green jacket.

The Masters was started by amateur champion Bobby Jones and investment banker Clifford Roberts. After his Grand Slam in 1930, Jones acquired the former plant nursery and co-designed Augusta National with course architect Alister MacKenzie. 

The Masters is the only major championship played at the same venue each year. 

The greatest legends in golf history have graced these grounds over the years. Jack Nicklaus has won the most Masters events with six. Tiger Woods has won five green jackets while Arnold Palmer has been champion four times. Five have won three titles at Augusta: Jimmy Demaret, Sam Snead, Gary Player, Nick Faldo and Phil Mickelson. Player, from South Africa, was the first non-American player to win the tournament, in 1961; the second was Seve Ballesteros of Spain, the champion in 1980 and 1983.

The Field

Participation in the Masters is by invitation only and the tournament has the smallest field of the major championships. There are several criteria by which invitations are awarded, including all past winners, recent major champions, leading finishers in the previous year’s majors, leading players on the PGA Tour in the previous season, winners of full-point tournaments on the PGA Tour during the previous 12 months, leading players in the Official World Golf Ranking and some leading amateurs.

There were three changes to invitee criteria between the 2023 and 2024 tournaments. The first was to add the current NCAA Division I men’s champion a spot in the field, if he remains an amateur at the time of the tournament. In addition, Augusta National clarified that players who qualify for the Tour Championship must remain eligible to play in that event to qualify for the Masters. Also, with the PGA Tour returning to a calendar-year season schedule, Augusta National noted that winners of fall PGA Tour events would continue to qualify for the Masters.

The list below details the qualification criteria for the 2024 Masters and the 89 players who have qualified under them; any additional criteria under which players qualified are indicated in parentheses.

1. All past winners of the Masters 

Fred Couples, Sergio García, Dustin Johnson, Zach Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama (17,19), Phil Mickelson (4,13), José María Olazábal, Jon Rahm (2,15,18,19), Patrick Reed (13), Scottie Scheffler (5,13,14,16,17,18,19), Charl Schwartzel, Adam Scott (19), Vijay Singh, Jordan Spieth (13,18,19), Bubba Watson, Mike Weir, Danny Willett, Tiger Woods

Past winners not expected to play: Tommy Aaron, Ángel Cabrera, Charles Coody, Ben Crenshaw, Nick Faldo, Raymond Floyd, Trevor Immelman, Bernhard Langer, Sandy Lyle, Larry Mize, Jack Nicklaus, Mark O’Meara, Gary Player, Craig Stadler, Tom Watson, Ian Woosnam, Fuzzy Zoeller

2. Recent winners of the U.S. Open (2019-2023)

Wyndham Clark (17,18,19), Bryson DeChambeau (16), Matt Fitzpatrick (13,17,18,19), Gary Woodland

3. Recent winners of the British Open (2019-2023)

Brian Harman (18,19), Shane Lowry (19), Collin Morikawa (4,13,17,18,19), Cameron Smith (5,14,19)

4. Recent winners of the PGA Championship (2019–2023)

Brooks Koepka (13,19), Justin Thomas (19)

5. Recent winners of The Players Championship (2022–2024)

6. The winner of the gold medal at the Olympic Games

7. The winner and runner-up in the 2023 U.S. Amateur Championship

Neal Shipley (a)

U.S. Amateur champion Nick Dunlap forfeited his invitation by turning professional but qualified under category 17 by winning the 2024 American Express.

8. The winner of the 2023 Amateur Championship

Christo Lamprecht (a)

9. The winner of the 2023 Asia-Pacific Amateur Championship

Jasper Stubbs (a)

10. The winner of the 2024 Latin America Amateur Championship

Santiago de la Fuente (a)

11. The winner of the 2023 U.S. Mid-Amateur Golf Championship

Stewart Hagestad (a)

12. The winner of the 2023 NCAA Division I men’s golf individual championship

Fred Biondi forfeited his invitation by turning professional.

13. The leading 12 players, and those tying for 12th place, from the 2023 Masters 

Russell Henley (18,19), Viktor Hovland (16,17,18,19), Xander Schauffele (18,19), Sahith Theegala (17,19), Cameron Young (19)

14. The leading four players, and those tying for fourth place, in the 2023 U.S. Open

Rory McIlroy (17,18,19)

15. The leading four players, and those tying for fourth place, in the 2023 British Open 

Jason Day (17,18,19), Tom Kim (17,18,19), Sepp Straka (17,18,19)

16. The leading four players, and those tying for fourth place, in the 2023 PGA Championship

Cameron Davis (19), Kurt Kitayama (19)

17. Winners of tournaments on the PGA Tour between the 2023 Masters and the 2024 Masters 

Ludvig Åberg (19), Akshay Bhatia, Keegan Bradley (18,19), Nick Dunlap, Austin Eckroat, Tony Finau (18,19), Rickie Fowler (18,19), Lucas Glover (18,19), Emiliano Grillo (18,19), Lee Hodges, Stephan Jaeger (20), Chris Kirk, Jake Knapp, Luke List, Peter Malnati, Grayson Murray, Matthieu Pavon, Nick Taylor (18), Erik van Rooyen, Camilo Villegas

18. All players who qualified for and are eligible for the 2023 Tour Championship

Sam Burns (19), Patrick Cantlay (19), Corey Conners (19), Tommy Fleetwood (19), Tyrrell Hatton (19), Max Homa (19), Sungjae Im (19), Si-woo Kim (19), Taylor Moore, Adam Schenk (19)

19. The leading 50 players on the Official World Golf Ranking as of Dec. 31, 2023

Eric Cole, Harris English, Ryan Fox, Adam Hadwin, Nicolai Højgaard, Min Woo Lee, Denny McCarthy, Adrian Meronk, J. T. Poston, Justin Rose, Will Zalatoris

20. The leading 50 players on the Official World Golf Ranking as of April 1, 2024

Byeong Hun An

21. Special invitations

Ryo Hisatsune, Joaquín Niemann, Thorbjørn Olesen

The Course

Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Ga., was designed in 1933 by Alister MacKenzie and Bobby Jones. It is a par-72 of 7,555 yards (seventh longest on tour) that plays longer than its listed yardage. The average round score last year was +0.95 over par (fifth toughest on tour). Augusta National usually plays to its standard firm and fast conditions. It is a classical, undulating meadowlands track. Water is in play on four holes. The wide (51 yards average — widest on PGA Tour) fairways are Overseeded Perennial Ryegrass with Bermudagrass base. The rough isn’t very thick (1.38 inches), but there are trees and pine straws that provide obstacles after errant tee shots.

Meanwhile, the greens are Bentgrass that will be fast and slick and run 13-15 feet on the stimpmeter and shots not in the right spots can fall into tough, shaved run-offs. The lack of rough around the green complexes creates indecision both with approach shots and recovery chips. Longer hitters certainly benefit here, and players must take advantage of the par-5s, but on-target approach shots are what put you in position to win here.

There are 44 bunkers (third fewest on tour), but they are difficult (46.7% sand saves), and a whole lotta pine straw scattered across the grounds. Unless there’s an untimely tree in the way, the pine straw isn’t the end of the world. The Bentgrass greens are around tour average in size; the major differences lie within the wild undulations. These are some of the hilliest and fastest putting surfaces the players will encounter all year.

Only one of the par-3 holes plays over 180 yards, yet because of the bunkering and difficult green complexes, they rank as the second-toughest group of par-3s, averaging 0.15 strokes over par.

The four par-5s are the holes that bring the most excitement to the course each year. This group of par-5s is one of the shorter ones on tour averaging only 564 yards per hole, each is reachable in two shots and averages a birdie or better rate of just under 40%. With eagle chances possible on each, along with danger areas, they are the essence of risk-reward holes. This is especially true on the 13th and 15th holes where wayward approaches will be eaten by the water hazards.

The par-4s are the toughest set on tour with an average of 0.19 strokes over par. The past nine winners of this event have ranked an average of second in the field for par-4 scoring. 

Masters Recent History/Winners

2023: Jon Rahm (-12/276); 9-1

2022: Scottie Scheffler (-10/278); 16-1

2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10/278); 45-1

2020: Dustin Johnson (-20/268); 9-1

2019: Tiger Woods (-13/275); 16-1

2018: Patrick Reed (-15/273); 50-1

2017: Sergio Garcia (-9/279); 40-1*

2016: Danny Willett (-5/283); 66-1

2015: Jordan Spieth (-18/270); 10-1

2014: Bubba Watson (-8/280); 25-1

2013: Adam Scott (-9/279); 28-1**

2012: Bubba Watson (-10/278); 50-1***

2011: Charl Schwartzel (-14/274); 90-1

2010: Phil Mickelson (-16/272); 10-1

Playoff win over Justin Rose – *

Playoff win over Angel Cabrera – **

Playoff win over Louis Oosthuizen – ***

  • 11 of the last 12 Masters winners ranked 16th or better in the official World Golf Rankings coming into the tournament (2021: Matsuyama, 25th).
  • The past 19 Masters winners have all finished Round 1 tied for 10th place or better.
  • 10 of the last 14 Masters winners had played in at least three Masters tournaments before getting the victory. Going back further, this trend used to be at least six trips to Augusta before winning. The point is that experience matters here.
  • 8 of the last 14 Masters winners had posted a win earlier that same season.
  • 14 of the last 14 Masters winners have posted a top-10 finish that same season.
  • 11 of the last 12 Masters winners had at least two top-15 finishes in their three events leading up to the tournament. Matsuyama in 2021 is the lone exception.
  • 7 of the last 10 Masters winners had at least one top-five finish in their Masters careers before donning the green jacket.
  • 8 of the 10 most recent Masters winners had at least a major runner-up result already to their name with all 10 having a T-6 finish or better.
  • The Masters defending champion has not successfully defended his title since Tiger Woods (2002).
  • In 2020, Dustin Johnson became the first World No. 1 to win the Masters since Tiger Woods (2002). Scottie Scheffler repeated the feat in 2022.
  • Dating to 2007, only two event winners the week before the Masters finished top 10 or better at Augusta (Anthony Kim, third in 2010; Jordan Spieth, winner in 2021).
  • 6 of the last 10 Masters winners were age 29 or younger.

Statistical Analysis

The last three Masters winners went first, second and second for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green during their respective winning weeks. 

Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green (Last 24 rounds)

  1. Scottie Scheffler 52.32
  2. Joaquin Niemann 41.28
  3. Jon Rahm 37.68
  4. Hideki Matsuyama 36.72
  5. Sergio Garcia 34.08
  6. Xander Schauffele 33.36
  7. Bryson DeChambeau 30
  8. Tony Finau 26.16
  9. Si Woo Kim 25.44
  10. Akshay Bhatia 24.48
  11. Lucas Glover 24.44
  12. Shane Lowry 23.76
  13. Justin Thomas 23.52
  14. Ludvig Åberg 23.28
  15. Wyndham Clark 22.80
  16. Corey Conners 21.60
  17. Austin Eckroat 20.88
  18. Cameron Young 19.92
  19. Dustin Johnson 19.92
  20. Tyrrell Hatton 18.24

Strokes Gained: Approach is always a mainstay in any event, especially a major championship. Over the past nine Masters, the winner has finished sixth, first, first, second, third, first, fifth, fourth and sixth in Strokes Gained: Approach for the week.

Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 36 rounds)

  1. Scottie Scheffler 33.48
  2. Joaquin Niemann 31.32
  3. Corey Conners 24.12
  4. Tyrrell Hatton 21.96
  5. Sergio Garcia 21.24
  6. Cameron Young 18.36
  7. Nicolai Højgaard 18
  8. Tony Finau 18
  9. Jon Rahm 17.28
  10. Justin Thomas 17.28
  11. Nick Taylor 16.56
  12. Austin Eckroat 15.84
  13. Lucas Glover 15.12
  14. Akshay Bhatia 14.76
  15. Thorbjørn Olesen 14.76
  16. Jake Knapp 13.68
  17. Ludvig Åberg 13.68
  18. Si Woo Kim 12.96
  19. Hideki Matsuyama 12.96
  20. Xander Schauffele 12.96

With little trouble finding fairways and no harsh penalty for being in the second cut of rough, bombers have a distinct advantage. Average driving distance is 26% longer here at Augusta National as opposed to the average driving distance on the PGA Tour. 

Driving Distance (2024 season)

  1. Bryson DeChambeau 321.9
  2. Joaquin Niemann 315.7
  3. Rory McIlroy 312.2
  4. Jon Rahm 311.9
  5. Stephan Jaeger 309.4
  6. Gary Woodland 309.3
  7. Wyndham Clark 309.2
  8. Byeong Hun An 308.9
  9. Min Woo Lee 308.1
  10. Dustin Johnson 307.7
  11. Brooks Koepka 307.7
  12. Ludvig Åberg 307.5
  13. Bubba Watson 306.6
  14. Nicolai Højgaard 306.4
  15. Jake Knapp 306.1
  16. Ryan Fox 305.3
  17. Adrian Meronk 305.2
  18. Sam Burns 304.2
  19. Sergio Garcia 304.2
  20. Tony Finau 304
  21. Tyrrell Hatton 304

Note: These are the average driving distance numbers for PGA Tour and LIV. 

Since 2009, 72% of scoring has come on the par-5 holes. And since 2017, Masters champions are a combined 60-under on the par-5s. Jon Rahm’s winning score was 12-under last year with -10 coming from the par-5s. In 2022, Scottie Scheffler was 10-under (-8 par-5s). Matsuyama carded 10-under in 2021 and was 11-under on par-5s (+1 on par-3s and par-4s). 

Par-5 Scoring Average (2024 season)

  1. Jon Rahm 4.37
  2. Patrick Cantlay 4.37
  3. Sungjae Im 4.40
  4. Scottie Scheffler 4.42
  5. Tony Finau 4.43
  6. Xander Schauffele 4.44
  7. Collin Morikawa 4.47
  8. Justin Thomas 4.48
  9. Jordan Spieth 4.48
  10. Rory McIlroy 4.49
  11. Wyndham Clark 4.50
  12. Cameron Davis 4.51
  13. Matt Fitzpatrick 4.51
  14. Tyrrell Hatton 4.51
  15. Adam Scott 4.52
  16. Brian Harman 4.52
  17. Hideki Matsuyama 4.52
  18. Tommy Fleetwood 4.52
  19. Adam Hadwin 4.53
  20. Cameron Young 4.53
  21. J.T. Poston 4.53

The three-putt rate of 4.2% is the highest here at Augusta National of any course on tour. 

Three-Putt Avoidance (2024 season)

  1. Chris Kirk 1.09%
  2. Scottie Scheffler 1.16%
  3. Eric Cole 1.30%
  4. Keegan Bradley 1.57%
  5. Adam Hadwin 1.82%
  6. Rory McIlroy 1.85%
  7. Rickie Fowler 1.89%
  8. Nick Taylor 1.92%
  9. Matt Fitzpatrick 1.95%
  10. Adam Scott 2.01%
  11. Jason Day 2.06%
  12. Sahith Theegala 2.06%
  13. Tyrrell Hatton 2.12%
  14. Brian Harman 2.15%
  15. Peter Malnati 2.15%
  16. Max Homa 2.17%
  17. Shane Lowry 2.26%
  18. Xander Schauffele 2.30%
  19. Sepp Straka 2.31%
  20. Sam Burns 2.33%

Note: Numbers indicate percentage of time a player three-putts.

The bogey avoidance percentage is just over 78% here at Augusta as opposed to 83% on the tour average. 

Bogey Avoidance (2024 season)

  1. Jason Day 10.8%
  2. Jon Rahm 11.25%
  3. Tom Kim 11.43%
  4. Brian Harman 11.56%
  5. Patrick Cantlay 12.43%
  6. Tony Finau 12.56%
  7. Sungjae Im 12.64%
  8. Xander Schauffele 12.74%
  9. Matt Fitzpatrick 12.76%
  10. Rickie Fowler 12.78%
  11. Max Homa 12.92%
  12. Russell Henley 12.92%
  13. Stephan Jaeger 12.94%
  14. Wyndham Clark 12.99%
  15. Hideki Matsuyama 13%
  16. Adam Hadwin 13.03%
  17. Denny McCarthy 13.08%
  18. Tyrrell Hatton 13.10%
  19. Eric Cole 13.15%
  20. Si Woo Kim 13.52%

Note: Percentage of time that the player makes bogey. 

Scrambling is 26% tougher at Augusta than at the average tour course.

Scrambling (2024 season)

  1. Jason Day 69.93%
  2. Tom Kim 67.86%
  3. Hideki Matsuyama 67.54%
  4. Brian Harman 67.53%
  5. Denny McCarthy 66.84%
  6. Camilo Villegas 66.67%
  7. Eric Cole 66.33%
  8. Sungjae Im 66.27%
  9. Matt Fitzpatrick 66.23%
  10. Taylor Moore 66.08%
  11. Scottie Scheffler 66.06%
  12. Tyrrell Hatton 65.86%
  13. Max Homa 65.81%
  14. Russell Henley 65.65%
  15. Harris English 65.56%
  16. Xander Schauffele 65.33%
  17. Jon Rahm 65.28%
  18. Adam Schenk 65.18%
  19. Si Woo Kim 65.16%
  20. Tony Finau 64.94%

Both Matsuyama and Scheffler ranked 3rd for Strokes Gained: Around The Green during their winning weeks. 

Strokes Gained: Around The Green (Last 36 rounds)

  1. Hideki Matsuyama 21.96
  2. Justin Thomas 20.16
  3. Scottie Scheffler 17.28
  4. Xander Schauffele 16.20
  5. Cameron Smith 15.84
  6. Thorbjørn Olesen 13.32
  7. Charl Schwartzel 12.60
  8. Tony Finau 12.24
  9. Lucas Glover 12.24
  10. Bryson DeChambeau 11.88
  11. Tommy Fleetwood 11.52
  12. Patrick Reed 11.16
  13. Ryo Hisatsune 11.16
  14. Jason Day 10.80
  15. Jon Rahm 9.72
  16. Denny McCarthy 9.72
  17. Taylor Moore 9
  18. Tyrrell Hatton 8.64
  19. Min Woo Lee 8.64
  20. Adam Schenk 8.64
  21. Shane Lowry 8.64

Players who historically play well at Augusta National tend to play consistently well here. 

Strokes Gained: Total — The Masters (Last 24 rounds)

  1. Jon Rahm 60.5
  2. Patrick Reed 46.5
  3. Dustin Johnson 44.8
  4. Rickie Fowler 44.4
  5. Rory McIlroy 42.1
  6. Cameron Smith 41.5
  7. Brooks Koepka 39.9
  8. Hideki Matsuyama 39.5
  9. Jordan Spieth 38.8
  10. Justin Thomas 37.4
  11. Scottie Scheffler 35.3 (16 rounds)
  12. Justin Rose 35.3
  13. Russell Henley 34
  14. Tony Finau 31.5
  15. Xander Schauffele 27.5 (22 rounds)
  16. Tiger Woods 24.4
  17. Collin Morikawa 23.3 (16 rounds)
  18. Will Zalatoris 23.2 (8 rounds)
  19. Phil Mickelson 21.2
  20. Viktor Hovland 19.3 (16 rounds)

Of course, it is prudent to look at major championship form in recent years. 

Strokes Gained: Total — Major Championships (Last 24 rounds)

  1. Scottie Scheffler 66.3
  2. Rory McIlroy 65.7
  3. Will Zalatoris 57
  4. Jon Rahm 55.3
  5. Cameron Young 52.7
  6. Viktor Hovland 50.5
  7. Xander Schauffele 49.3
  8. Patrick Cantlay 49.3
  9. Tommy Fleetwood 47.5
  10. Matt Fitzpatrick 46.9
  11. Cameron Smith 46.5
  12. Collin Morikawa 36.6
  13. Hideki Matsuyama 36.3
  14. Jordan Spieth 35.7
  15. Rickie Fowler 34.3
  16. Shane Lowry 33.9
  17. Brian Harman 33.9
  18. Min Woo Lee 31.4
  19. Tom Kim 29.5
  20. Brooks Koepka 29.1

Selections

Rory McIlroy (13-1, Circa Sports)

McIlroy won his last major championship, the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club, almost 10 years ago and has been trying to become the sixth male golfer to complete the modern career Grand Slam for going on a decade now. 

He has been a staple on the first page of the leaderboard at Augusta over that last decade with seven top-10 finishes over the last 10 Masters. McIlroy enters with momentum after finishing third at the Valero Texas Open, which was his first top-10 finish on the PGA Tour in 2024.

McIlroy is still arguably the best driver of the golf ball in the game, ranking first on the PGA Tour for Total Driving. While he has struggled on approach this season, his approach play last weekend was outstanding. He averaged 1.88 strokes gained approach per round last week at the Valero. Furthermore, his 3.7 strokes gained during Sunday’s final round were his most gained during any round on approach since the 2022 RBC Canadian Open, where he shot 62 to win the event. Perhaps this is due, at least in part, to his recent work with Butch Harmon. 

Over the winter, he resigned from the PGA Tour Policy Board, which may have eliminated a distraction as he seemed to be the focal point of the PGA Tour vs. LIV Golf divide. 

Winning the Masters is the last real individual accomplishment McIlroy, who is already one of the game’s all-time greats. 

Xander Schauffele (16-1, DraftKings)

While no player can duplicate the statistical marvel that Scottie Scheffler has been in 2024, Schauffele is just behind him in many statistical categories, just like he ended up right behind him finishing runner-up at The Players Championship last month. 

He ranks second in Strokes Gained: Total this season on the PGA Tour, albeit a distant second behind Scheffler, and also ranks among the top 20 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Approach and Around the Green.

Like Scheffler, he is a bit down the board for putting (80th in Strokes Gained: Putting), but he ranked fifth on tour last year for the same category, so it is reasonable to believe the putter can heat up at any moment. 

Schauffele enters with the longest active consecutive cuts made on the PGA Tour with 42 (nine ahead of Scheffler in second at 33). His last missed cut: the 2022 Masters. He was T-3 the year before in 2021 and T-2 at Augusta in 2019.

He has been arguably the second-best player on tour this season with six top-10 finishes (Scheffler has seven). Xander has been second best for too long, especially in a major championship.

Joaquin Niemann (30-1, SuperBook Sports)

In full disclosure, I have a 50-1 ticket on Niemann from last month placed when he won his second LIV Golf event of 2024 in Saudi Arabia. 

His price has shortened dramatically for good reason. The man from Chile is second for Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Tee To Green, and Driving Distance coming into the Masters. 

After his LIV win at Mayakoba to start 2024, he mentioned in his post-round interview about not being in the majors. The Augusta National Golf Club extended him a special invitation to be in the Masters, but at No. 93 in the OWGR, he is not in any of the other 2024 majors and has to take advantage of this opportunity to at least have a high finish and gain valuable OWGR points to put himself in position for inclusion in the other majors. 

He has yet to finish in the top 10 for any major championship, but the current form with two victories, four top-10s in five LIV events, plus four other top-5s worldwide since December, is difficult to ignore. 

Tony Finau (43-1, Circa Sports)

Finau’s current form line in the last 10 majors reads like this: MC-15-35-30-MC-28-26-72-32-MC. Before the recent struggles in major championships, he had four top-5s and 10 top-10s in his prior 15 majors. 

Across his last seven PGA Tour events, Finau has racked up five top-13 Strokes Gained Tee to Green performances and has gained with the putter in three of his last four starts. 

So far at Augusta National, he’s finished 10th on debut in 2018, fifth in 2019 (the year he was in Sunday’s last group with Tiger Woods and Francesco Molinari) and 10th in 2022.

Finau finished T-2 two weeks ago in defense of his Houston Open title and should be carrying good momentum into this week. 

Cameron Young (55-1, DraftKings)

Understandably, bettors are running out of patience with Cameron Young considering he has seven runner-up finishes over the last three PGA Tour seasons (also a runner-up in the 2023 Saudi International) and is still searching for that maiden PGA Tour victory. 

He was widely tipped last year and was 3 under through three holes in Round 1, eventually finishing seventh. Last year, he was 25-1 coming into Augusta and actually looks to be in better form this time around.

Young ranks sixth in Strokes Gained: Total over the last 24 rounds. 

Sahith Theegala (55-1, Caesars Sportsbook)

Theegala has looked in good form for most of 2024, hitting the top 10 four times across his nine starts and was runner-up in the opening event of the year at the Sentry.

His ball striking has improved substantially this year. He can be a bit loose off the tee but has actually gained for that category in eight of nine starts this season. Theegala has also gained with the irons in six of nine starts. 

Theegala was impressive when finishing ninth on debut at Augusta last year, finishing with a closing 67.

Matchup

Patrick Reed +115 over Tyrrell Hatton (BetMGM)

While Hatton comes in with his best finish of the season on LIV (T-4 last weekend at Doral), he has only one top-20 finish in seven Masters appearances. 

Of course, Reed is the 2018 Masters champion and has three top-10 finishes at Augusta since winning the green jacket. 

Placements

Top 10

Rory McIlroy +110 (DraftKings)

Xander Schauffele +140 (BetMGM)

Top 20

Tony Finau +130 (DraftKings)

Sahith Theegala +140 (DraftKings)

Top 30 

Russell Henley -120 (FanDuel)

Prop

Christo Lamprecht Low Amateur +188 (BetMGM)

Lamprecht is the No. 4-ranked world amateur. 

He just defeated now-professional Nick Dunlap to win the Georgia Cup on Sunday.

The 6-foot-8 South African was the first-round co-leader at the British Open before finishing T-74 and winning the Silver Medal as the low amateur. 

Lamprecht is as long as anyone off the tee, including Bryson and Rory. 

More matchups, placement markets and props will be available Wednesday at VSIN.com

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