Masters:
A lot of things can happen over the course of four days and 72 holes. But, what if you just need a guy to play well on the first day for 18 of them? The first-round leader betting market is something that has really grown in popularity in terms of golf wagering and no tournament illustrates that sentiment more than The Masters.
You also have the opportunity to get some better prices on the favorites. Over the course of 72 holes, the best are probably going to outlast a lot of other players. In a smaller sample size, though, you could argue that there is some more variance. You can see that with something like Scottie Scheffler at +400 to win the tournament, but +1400 to be the first-round leader. Similarly, Rory McIlroy is +650 to win, but +1600 for the first-round leader.
That being said, somebody like Akshay Bhatia is +6500 to win the tournament, but +5000 to be the first-round leader. So, you’ll get better prices on some of the favorites, but worse prices on the longshots.
Let’s see if there are some players to keep in mind and look at the historical leaders after 18 holes.
Masters First-Round Leaders Last 5 Years
2024: Bryson DeChambeau
2023: Viktor Hovland/Brooks Koepka/Jon Rahm
2022: Sungjae Im
2021: Justin Rose
2020: Paul Casey/Dylan Frittelli/Dustin Johnson (held in November because of COVID)
A couple other notes:
- The leading first-round score has been 65 in four of the last five Masters (67 in 2022)
- Scottie Scheffler has been 2nd, T-6th, T-3rd after the first round the last three years.
Top 10 in First-Round Strokes Gained Total (SG: Total) Last 5 Years
2024 Masters
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Scottie Scheffler
- Max Homa
- Nicolai Hojgaard
- Danny Willett
- Cameron Davis
- Ryan Fox
- Will Zalatoris
- Cameron Young
- Matthieu Pavon
- Byeong Hun An
- Joaquin Niemann
- Corey Conners
2023 Masters
- Jon Rahm
- Brooks Koepka
- Viktor Hovland
- Cameron Young
- Jason Day
- Xander Schauffele
- Scottie Scheffler
- Gary Woodland
- Shane Lowry
- Sam Bennett
- Sam Burns
- Adam Scott
2022 Masters
- Sungjae Im
- Cameron Smith
- Scottie Scheffler
- Dustin Johnson
- Danny Willett
- Joaquin Niemann
- Corey Conners
- Jason Kokrak
- Patrick Cantlay
- Will Zalatoris
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Kevin Na
- Harry Higgs
- Harold Varner III
- Webb Simpson
- Tony Finau
- Tiger Woods
- Daniel Berger
2021 Masters
- Justin Rose
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Brian Harman
- Will Zalatoris
- Patrick Reed
- Webb Simpson
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Jordan Spieth
- Si Woo Kim
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Shane Lowry
- Jason Kokrak
2020 Masters
- Dustin Johnson
- Dylan Frittelli
- Paul Casey
- Sungjae Im
- Justin Thomas
- Cameron Smith
- Webb Simpson
- Xander Schauffele
- Justin Rose
- Patrick Reed
- Abraham Ancer
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Cameron Champ
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Bernhard Langer
- Tiger Woods
- Lee Westwood
Player lists courtesy of Datagolf
As you can see, there are elite players, great players, good players, not-so-good players, and some players that we rarely hear from anymore, if at all, on those lists. If that doesn’t illustrate the higher-variance environment of the first-round leader market, I’m not sure what will.
There also isn’t a ton of carryover year-to-year, aside from Scheffler, of course. But there is some, and maybe those players are targets.
Masters Tournament 2025 First-Round Leader Predictions
Cameron Young has been in the top 10 the last two years in SG: Total and has been T-6th and T-4th after the first round. Young is 70/1 at DraftKings to be the first-round leader and 200/1 to win the Masters.
Will Zalatoris has been in the top 10 in first-round SG: Total three times in this sample size. He’s 45/1 to be the first-round leader and 65/1 to win the Masters, as he comes in with just one top-15 finish in 2025. But, this is a course where familiarity and past success are very important.
Another one in that price range is Corey Conners at 45/1. Conners struggles to be consistent with the putter, but anybody can have a good day with the flatstick. He’s been in the top 10 in SG: Total twice in 2022 and 2024 and is in pretty good form this year with four top-10 finishes and five straight top-25 efforts.
Those are three names to consider and we’ll have more from our VSiN hosts and experts, as well as some sharp golf guests throughout the next couple of days in the lead-up to the Masters Tournament.
