PGA Championship
Jhonattan Vegas. Cam Davis. Ryan Gerard. Aaron Rai. Stephan Jaeger. Alex Smalley. Ryan Fox. Luke Donald.
Is that not the list that you expected to see in the top five after the first round of the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow? Many big names struggled, while others are in striking distance following the first 18 holes of the second major of the golf season. Heavy rains from early in the week left a lot of fairways soggy and players struggled a bit with some shots that they normally wouldn’t, so we’ll see if the course, which got to bake in the sun on Thursday and will bake in the sun on Friday, gets a little bit friendlier for the studs of the sport.
PGA Championship first-round scores
PGA Championship second-round tee times
VSiN’s golf experts offered their first-round observations and second-round predictions . . .
Matt Youmans
If the PGA leaderboard looks like this on Sunday, it would be a bookmakers’ dream. The betting public’s favorite players are nowhere to be found in the Top 10. To find a star, scroll all the way down to Scottie Scheffler, who’s tied for 20th at 2 under. Rory McIlroy was one of many big-name busts in the first round.
Jhonattan “Johnny” Vegas is the Cinderella story out of nowhere. Vegas was posted at 200-1 odds to be the first-rounder leader by the Westgate SuperBook, where oddsmaker Jeff Sherman said Vegas drew zero bets, so the books basically scooped the pot in the first-round leader wagering pool. Vegas’ pre-tournament odds went off at 575-1 at Circa, where oddsmaker Sam Cooney said the book took “five small bets” on Vegas to win.
My best bet at this point is Tyrrell Hatton, who shot a 3-under 68 and is tied for ninth. I had never bet on Hatton (55-1) in a major until this week. It’s not looking so good for Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry and a few of my longer shots. Bryson DeChambeau (11-1) is still alive, yet seven shots off the lead.
Ludvig Aberg, now 22-1 at DraftKings, is one player I would consider betting before the second round.
Kelley Bydlon
Well, it’s certainly a surprising leaderboard after the first round of the PGA Championship, and I’m going to guess most people who bet on the event aren’t very happy right now. This tweet from Underdog sums it up pretty well…
Who could have seen this chaos coming???
Guys like Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele expressed their frustrations after the round with the PGA’s decision to not allow “lift, clean, and place” for today’s first round, and many balls that did find the fairway today ended up with some mud on them. I won’t weigh in on that whole mess, because I think everybody shares in the blame. However, my betting card certainly looks in trouble. So time to see if there’s some value to be found heading into Friday…
Any matchup bets, I will add to our Golf Picks Page, but I usually do not play much until the weekend. If you are looking to get involved in the live outright market, I think it’s a smart move overnight tonight because there are plenty of names at the top of the leaderboard that I do not expect to be a problem come Sunday.
Here’s a couple guys I’d consider playing…
Scottie Scheffler (+330)
Yeah, this one is pretty obvious. But if you liked him before the tournament and never bet him, I don’t think it’s a bad call adding him now, even at worse odds. He has the perfect game to fit here and a lot of the golfers we were concerned about him beating out are in his rearview mirror.
Bryson DeChambeau (14-1)
Similar thinking to Scheffler. Definitely still in range to contend with who is in front of him and you’re actually getting longer odds on him now.
Ludvig Aberg (22-1)
Didn’t come into the tournament in his best form, but a solid first round to finish under par. This would simply be a bet on the high upside of the talent of Aberg, combined with who’s actually in front of him right now.
Wes Reynolds
Only 45 of the 156 players shot red figures during Thursday’s first round of the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. Among those that did not include defending PGA Champion Xander Schauffele (+1; 45/1 in-play), Masters Champion Rory McIlroy (+3; 30/1), Justin Thomas (+2; 75/1), the 2017 PGA Champion at Quail Hollow, plus Bryson DeChambeau (Even; 14/1), Hideki Matsuyama (+1; 90/1), and three-time PGA Champion Brooks Koepka (+4; 500/1).
I received numerous messages via text and on social media saying this leaderboard looks more like a Puerto Rico Open or other alternate event than it does a major championship. A fair enough observation, but keep in mind it is only Day 1.
If you are not a casual fan and a weekly follower/bettor of golf, then you probably recognize Jhonattan Vegas (-7; 18/1) as the Venezuelan has won four times on the PGA TOUR. However, you do not likely recognize him atop the leaderboard of a major championship as he has only made six of 16 career cuts in majors. Nevertheless, he did gain slightly less than six strokes with his short game on Thursday. Vegas ranks just 130th on the TOUR for Strokes Gained: Putting and 119th for Strokes Gained: Around The Green.
Vegas sits two shots better than Australian Cam Davis (-5; 30/1), who gained +6.4 strokes putting – the most of his career, and Ryan Gerard (-5; 30/1), who was the best player tee-to-green on Thursday.
At 4-under are last week’s Myrtle Beach Classic winner New Zealand’s Ryan Fox (35/1), Alex Smalley (35/1), who got into this field as an alternate, Englishman Aaron Rai (22/1), Germany’s Stephan Jaeger (35/1), and European Ryder Cup captain Luke Donald (170/1).
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+350) was the championship favorite coming in and remains so with a 2-under round of 69.
LIV Golf expatriates Tyrrell Hatton (-3; 16/1) and Jon Rahm (-1; 18/1) both got off to strong starts.
Ludvig Åberg (22/1) and Collin Morikawa (22/1) both finished at 1-under while Viktor Hovland (25/1) posted 2-under.
Per Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf on X) of The Athletic, 34 of the last 35 PGA Championship winners have been within six of the lead after round 1. However, the PGA Championship has historically provided the most comebacks of any of the four majors.
The course should firm up a bit tomorrow with no rain in the forecast and temperatures in the high 80s all day on Friday before showers emerge Saturday afternoon.
As of now, no adds for me going into Friday’s second round.
