RSM Classic Best Bets and Golf Odds

The RSM Classic:

Puerto Rico’s Rafael Campos turned professional in 2011 and had one professional victory (2019 Bahamas Great Abaco Classic on the Korn Ferry Tour) to his credit but finally broke through on the PGA Tour last weekend at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship as a 250-1 shot. Campos, a three-stroke winner over Andrew Novak, became a father for the first time just six days ago and entered this tournament ranked 147th in the FedEx Cup standings. The victory not only allowed Campos to keep his tour card, but it also exempts him through the end of 2026 and earns him invitations to The Sentry The Masters, The Players Championship and the PGA Championship for next year. 

This week’s season finale at the RSM Classic represents the final chance for players to improve their standing for next season. 

Ludvig Åberg (10-1), ranked No. 5 in the OWGR, is the headliner this week as the RSM Classic defending champion and returns to play for the first time since the Tour Championship as he had knee surgery immediately after that event. 

Davis Thompson (22-1) leads a cavalcade of players playing a home game this week as he resides in St. Simons Island, Ga. 

Denny McCarthy has finished inside the top 10 at the RSM three times in the last five years and is priced at 28-1 along with Si Woo Kim.

Brian Harman (30-1) is another St. Simons resident and was runner-up here two years ago to Adam Svensson (55-1). 

Matt Wallace (33-1) is fully exempt on the DP World Tour but is here this week after two weeks in the UAE to move up from No. 133 in the FedEx Cup standings and get into the 125 and keep his full PGA Tour playing privileges. 

Seamus Power (33-1) finished fourth and fifth here in 2021 and 2022 and is currently inside the Aon Next 10 to earn entry into the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Genesis Invitational signature events next February. 

Ben Griffin (35-1), another St. Simons local, finished eighth here last year and in the same position last week in Bermuda. 

Harris English (35-1) and J.T. Poston (35-1) live in Sea Island, which is part of the Golden Isles of Georgia along with St. Simons, and are regulars in this event. 

J.J. Spaun (35-1) was the runner-up in this event in 2017 while Mackenzie Hughes (35-1) won here in 2016 and is also a two-time runner-up (2021, 2023). 

Hughes and Maverick McNealy (35-1) are also here to protect their spots in the Aon Next 10 for entries in next year’s first two signature events. 

The Event

The RSM Classic debuted in October 2010 as the McGladrey Classic and has been a fixture on the PGA Tour’s Fall Series ever since. The tournament is organized by the Davis Love Foundation as DL3 is a resident pro of the Sea Island Golf Club, which has hosted the event every year. In 2015, the event began being played on both Sea Island Golf Club courses — Seaside and Plantation. As a full-field event, the usual perks for winning are on the line here including the winner’s share of a $8 million purse), spots in the Masters, PGA and Players and a two-year PGA Tour exemption.

Numerous PGA Tour players call Sea Island their home including J.T. Poston, Brian Harman, Harris English, Patton Kizzire, Zach Johnson, Matt Kuchar, Keith Mitchell, Andrew Novak, Garrick Higgo, Ben Griffin, Greyson Sigg, Davis Thompson and Michael Thompson.

The Field

A full field of 156 players is here this week, including 10 of the OWGR Top 50. 

The Top 125 players in the FedEx Cup Fall standings after this week will secure their 2025 Tour memberships, earning spots in each full-field event along with The Players Championship. Those who finish ranked 51-60 will get into the first two “Signature Events” in 2025. 

The current FedEx Cup standings are here. 

The Courses 

The RSM Classic is played on two courses. The Sea Island Plantation Course will be played in either the first or second round by all players. It was originally designed in 1928 by Walter Travis and redesigned in 1998 before a group led by Davis Love III and Mark Love restored it in 2019. This course plays as a par-72 of 7,060 yards and has tight, undulating Bermuda fairways into smallish (6,100 square feet) and slow (11 stimpmeter) Bermuda greens. With Love’s design input, this course does have some similarities to Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage), where DL 3 won five times. The Plantation Course is a tree-lined parklands and rated as the sixth-shortest and 11th-easiest course on the PGA Tour last year.

Comparable courses to the Sea Island Plantation Course include Waialae, Torrey Pines North, Detroit GC, Keene Trace, Silverado, Sherwood and TPC Deere Run. 

The Sea Island Seaside Course will be played in three of the four rounds. The legendary team of Harry Colt and Hugh Alison designed this track in 1928 before Tom Fazio re-designed it in 1998. The Seaside Course is around the same length at 7,005 yards but only plays as a par-70. The fairways have an average width of 42.5 yards, the fourth-widest on tour. The greens are larger on this layout though at 7,200 average square feet (seventh-largest on tour) but will be much faster (13 stimpmeter) than the Plantation Course. Like its counterpart, the tees and fairways are a Bermuda and Paspalum mix, and the greens are TifEagle Bermuda. The Seaside Course is a bit more of a coastal and links-style layout where wind can play more of a factor. With it being a coastal design, there is a lot of water with 13 water danger holes, third-most on tour. Seaside ranked as the 10th-shortest and 15th-easiest course on the PGA Tour last year. 

Comparable courses include coastal courses like Waialae, Port Royal, El Camaleon, and Monterrey Peninsula. Others based on similar length include PGA National, Innisbrook, TPC River Highlands, Sedgefield and Silverado. 

RSM Classic Recent History

2023: Ludvig Åberg (-29/253); 12-1

2022: Adam Svensson (-19/263); 150-1

2021: Talor Gooch (-22/260); 40-1

2020: Robert Streb (-19/263); 350-1*

2019: Tyler Duncan (-19/263); 200-1**

2018: Charles Howell III (-19/263); 50-1***

2017: Austin Cook (-21/261); 90-1

2016: Mackenzie Hughes (-17/265); 250-1****

2015: Kevin Kisner (-22/260); 22-1

2014: Robert Streb (-14/266); 75-1*****

2013: Chris Kirk (-14/266); 50-1

2012: Tommy Gainey (-16/264); 200-1

2011: Ben Crane (-15/265); 66-1******

2010: Heath Slocum (-14/266); 50-1

Playoff win over Kevin Kisner – *

Playoff win over Webb Simpson – **

Playoff win over Patrick Rodgers – ***

Playoff win over Blayne Barber, Billy Horschel, Henrik Norlander, and Camilo Villegas – ****

Playoff win over Brendon de Jonge and Will MacKenzie – *****

Playoff win over Webb Simpson – ******

Trends and Angles

• 10 of the last 12 RSM Classic winners were age 33 or younger. 
• 9 of the last 12 RSM Classic winners were first-time PGA Tour winners. 

Statistical Analysis

While the greens are massive, particularly on the Seaside Course, the players are exposed to highly windy conditions, so they will have to be sharp with the irons.

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Lucas Glover 0.723
2. Doug Ghim 0.704
3. Keith Mitchell 0.560
4. Austin Smotherman 0.537
5. Si Woo Kim 0.506
6. Patton Kizzire 0.498
7. Henrik Norlander 0.493
8. J.J. Spaun 0.493
9. Joel Dahmen 0.467
10. Andrew Novak 0.463
11. Ludvig Åberg 0.450
12. Greyson Sigg 0.434
13. Chez Reavie 0.424
14. Ryan Moore 0.409
15. Austin Eckroat 0.401
16. Lee Hodges 0.379
17. Adam Svensson 0.374

The plurality of approaches will be anywhere from 100-175 yards, so we can examine the proximity to the hole buckets here.

Proximity to the Hole 100-125 Yards (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Lucas Glover 15′ 9″
2. Roger Sloan 16′ 5″
3. Eric Cole 16′ 8″
4. Taylor Montgomery 17′ 1″
5. Trace Crowe 17′ 4″
6. Jake Knapp 17′ 6″
7. Ryan Moore 17′ 6″
8. Pierceson Coody 17′ 7″
9. J.J. Spaun 17′ 7″
10. K.H. Lee 17′ 8″
11. Brandt Snedeker 17′ 8″
12. Ryan McCormick 17′ 11″
13. Alex Smalley 18′ 0″
14. Doug Ghim 18′ 2″
15. Kevin Kisner 18′ 2″
16. Joel Dahmen 18′ 3″
17. J.T. Poston 18′ 3″

Proximity to the Hole 125-150 Yards (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Austin Smotherman 18′ 9″
2. Joel Dahmen 20′ 1″
3. Justin Lower 20′ 3″ 
4. J.J Spaun 20′ 4″
5. Doug Ghim 20′ 7″
6. Chandler Phillips 20′ 7″
7. Ryan Moore 20′ 8″
8. Ben Kohles 20′ 10″
9. K.H. Lee 20′ 11″
10. Trace Crowe 21′ 0″ 
11. Roger Sloan 21′ 0″
12. Chris Kirk 21′ 1″
13. Keith Mitchell 21′ 1″
14. Robby Shelton 21′ 2″
15. Eric Cole 21′ 3″
16. Seamus Power 21′ 3″
17. Lucas Glover 21′ 4″
18. Brian Harman 21′ 5″
19. Andrew Novak 21′ 5″

Proximity to the Hole 150-175 Yards (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Joel Dahmen 24′ 1″
2. Josh Teater 24′ 5″
3. Doug Ghim 24′ 11″
4. Lucas Glover 24′ 11″
5. Sam Ryder 24′ 11″
6. Bud Cauley 25′ 0″
7. Ryan Moore 25′ 1″
8. David Skinns 25′ 1″
9. Ludvig Åberg 25′ 3″
10. Troy Merritt 25′ 3″
11. Keith Mitchell 25′ 3″
12. Brian Harman 25′ 5″
13. Seamus Power 25′ 6″
14. Tom Whitney 25′ 6″
15. Jacob Bridgeman 25′ 7″
16. Sepp Straka 25′ 7″

With two courses barely over 7000 yards, players can “club down” and not use many drivers off the tee. 

Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee — Short Courses — Average Per Round (Last 36 rounds)

1. Patrick Fishburn 0.98 
2. Keith Mitchell 0.93
3. Cameron Champ 0.80
4. Austin Eckroat 0.79
5. Ludvig Åberg 0.67
6. Kevin Yu 0.59
7. Paul Barjon 0.58
8. Rico Hoey 0.56
9. Hayden Buckley 0.54
10. Tyler Duncan 0.52
11. Paul Peterson 0.52
12. Hayden Springer 0.51
13. MJ Daffue 0.48
14. Daniel Berger 0.46
15. Alejandro Tosti 0.46
16. Si Woo Kim 0.44
17. Kevin Dougherty 0.44

29-under-par won here last year, so you are going to need to have a lot of circles on the scorecard.

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Keith Mitchell 25.77%
2. Wesley Bryan 25.46
3. Jacob Bridgeman 25.35
4. Michael Kim 25.10
5. Trace Crowe 24.96
6. Patton Kizzire 24.95
7. Joe Highsmith 24.92
8. Justin Lower 24.47
9. Rico Hoey 24.33
10. Hayden Springer 24.33
11. Sam Ryder 24.31
12. Carson Young 24.29
13. Sam Stevens 24.26
14. Ludvig Åberg 24.18
15. Maverick McNealy 24.18

10 of the 12 Par-4s on the Seaside Course measure 400-450 yards.

Total Strokes Gained Par-4s 400-450 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Justin Lower 24.5
2. Zac Blair 22
3. Roger Sloan 19.3
4. Adam Svensson 16.9
5. Ryo Hisatsune 15.9
6. Davis Thompson 14.4
7. Brendon Todd 13.9
8. Luke Clanton 12.9
9. Greyson Sigg 12.7
10. Chad Ramey 12.6
11. Wesley Bryan 11.3
12. Taylor Moore 11
13. Chandler Phillips 10.9
14. Sam Stevens 10.6
15. Matt Kuchar 10

Eventually, this event turns into a putting contest, and we can examine the best putters on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained Putting — Average Per Round — Bermuda Greens (Last 36 rounds)

1. Taylor Montgomery 1.13
2. Michael Thorbjornsen 1.03
3. Denny McCarthy 0.78
4. Ben Griffin 0.72
5. Chad Ramey 0.67
6. Harris English 0.63
7. Raul Pereda 0.63
8. Justin Suh 0.57
9. Jacob Bridgeman 0.57
10. Mackenzie Hughes 0.54
11. Hayden Springer 0.54
12. Kelly Kraft 0.51
13. Brendon Todd 0.50
14. Martin Trainer 0.50
15. SH Kim 0.46
16. Matt Kuchar 0.44
17. Andrew Putnam 0.42
18. Ryo Hisatsune 0.41

With these being shorter courses, we can examine form on shorter courses.

Strokes Gained: Short Courses — Average Per Round (Last 36 rounds)

1. Ludvig Åberg 1.46
2. Denny McCarthy 1.29
3. Ben Griffin 1.24
4. Christo Lamprecht 1.23
5. Luke Clanton 1.22
6. Keith Mitchell 1.18
7. Brian Harman 1.13
8. J.J Spaun 1.11
9. Chris Kirk 1.10
10. Eric Cole 1.08
11. Ryo Hisatsune 1.06
12. Adam Svensson 0.92
13. Greyson Sigg 0.92
14. J.T. Poston 0.91
15. Daniel Berger 0.90

Selections

Eric Cole (41-1, Circa Sports)

Cole finished T-3 here last year and was sixth last time out at the ZOZO Championship. 

He finished 50th and in the final spot of the FedEx Cup Top 50 to earn entry into all the Signature Events next season, so the focus is on getting that first PGA Tour victory. 

PGA National has had a strong correlation to success at the RSM Classic. Cole lost in the playoff there in 2023 to Chris Kirk, also a former winner here at the RSM Classic.

Keith Mitchell (66-1, BetMGM)

Mitchell is another local resident of Sea Island, Ga.

Surprisingly, he has never contended here but does have good form on correlated courses with a win at PGA National (2019 Honda Classic), a T-4 at Pebble Beach and a T-7 at Waialae. 

He has missed three consecutive cuts but did finish T-9 at PGA National and T-17 at Innisbrook on correlated courses earlier this year. 

Greyson Sigg (70-1, FanDuel)

Sigg finished in the top 10 last year here at the RSM and was in the top 10 last week in Bermuda leading the field for Greens In Regulation.

He is one of a multitude of players based locally at St. Simons Island. 

Daniel Berger (90-1, FanDuel)

Berger is No. 127 in the FedEx Cup standings just two spots away from keeping his PGA Tour card. 

He has been the runner-up at PGA National and has finished well on shorter courses over the years with victories at Colonial, TPC Southwind and Pebble Beach, plus a runner-up at TPC River Highlands. 

Chandler Phillips (90-1, FanDuel)

Phillips finished T-3 at the Valspar earlier this year, which has historically correlated strongly with the RSM. 

The Texas A&M product has a lot of experience on the Seaside Course, having finished fifth (2016), third (2017), 10th (2018) and sixth (2019) in collegiate events here. 

Henrik Norlander (120-1, FanDuel)

Norlander is No. 126 in FedEx Cup standings just one spot away from keeping his card.

The Swede finished runner-up here in 2016 and fifth in 2019 and has played some solid golf this fall with top-10s at the European Masters and Black Desert Championship. 

K.H. Lee (180-1, Circa Sports)

K.H. Lee has missed the cut the last two weeks but did finish top 5 here in 2019. 

The Cognizant Classic (PGA National) and the Valspar (Innisbrook) have had strong correlations to success in this event over the years and Lee finished T-4 and T-9 in those events earlier this year.

Any placement market or matchup wagers will be Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks