Shriners Children’s Open Best Bets and Golf Odds

Shriners Children’s Open Best Bets: 

Matt McCarty, a pre-tournament price of 55-1, won his maiden PGA Tour event in just his third start on tour at 23 under and finished three strokes ahead of the field at the inaugural Black Desert Championship last weekend. McCarty won three times on the Korn Ferry Tour over the summer to earn the coveted “battlefield promotion” directly to the PGA Tour. 

McCarty became the first player to win three times on the Korn Ferry Tour and then on the PGA Tour in the same season since Jason Gore in 2005.

He earns spots in The Sentry, the Masters and the PGA Championship, and, more immediately, played his way into this week’s Shriners Children’s Open, where he is priced at 40-1.

The favorite for this week’s Shriners is the man who has won this event in Las Vegas the last two years, Tom Kim (14-1), who is going for the three-peat last achieved in a PGA Tour event in 2011 when Steve Stricker won the John Deere Classic for a third consecutive year (2009-2011). 

Speaking of the John Deere, that’s where Davis Thompson (25-1) cashed an outright winner for us earlier this summer for his first PGA Tour victory. 

Canadians went 2-3 in this event behind Tom Kim last year as Adam Hadwin (35-1) and Taylor Pendrith (25-1) finished second and third, respectively. 

Beau Hossler (30-1) followed up his playoff loss at the Sanderson Farms two weeks ago to Kevin Yu (60-1) with a respectable T-11 last week in Utah and finished seventh in this event last year. He is a combined 38 under over his last eight rounds. 

Kurt Kitayama (30-1) is part of a local Las Vegas resident group that includes Maverick McNealy (45-1), Harry Hall, Doug Ghim (65-1) and several others. 

Tom Hoge (33-1), Eric Cole (35-1), T-3 here last year, Keith Mitchell (35-1), third two weeks ago at the Sanderson Farms and the 54-hole overnight leader, and Seamus Power (35-1), another Vegas resident who is off two straight T-11 finishes, make up the next level of the market.

Stephan Jaeger (35-1) also cashed an outright winner for us at the Houston Open in March and was the 36-hole leader last week in Utah before finishing runner-up. 

Cam Davis (40-1), T-7 here last year, like Hadwin, is also playing his first event since being snubbed for selection to the Presidents Cup. 

Aside from defending champion Tom Kim, other former Shriners champions in this week’s field include Webb Simpson (90-1), Martin Laird (150-1) and Ryan Moore (175-1). 

The Event

The Shriners Children’s Open was founded as the Las Vegas Pro Celebrity Classic in 1983. At the time, the event had the highest purse on the PGA Tour of $750,000. The field will be playing for a slightly larger total purse of $8.4 million this week. The tournament was originally a 90-hole event before going to 72 holes in 2004. Many fans will know this event as the Las Vegas Invitational, which it was named from 1984-1999. It was also the site of Tiger Woods’ first PGA Tour win in 1996 when he defeated Davis Love III in a playoff. The tournament boasts an extensive list of major championship winners, including Tiger, Jim Furyk, Fuzzy Zoeller, Curtis Strange, Greg Norman, Paul Azinger, Davis Love III, Webb Simpson and Bryson DeChambeau. 

Before TPC Summerlin took over as sole host in 2008, a variety of Las Vegas courses were played in the event, including TPC Las Vegas, Bear’s Best, Southern Highlands, Desert Inn (now Wynn), Las Vegas CC, Las Vegas National, Spanish Trail, Showboat (now Wildhorse) and Sunrise (now Stallion Mountain). Shriners Hospitals for Children took over the operation of the event in 2007. 

The Field

Just six of the OWGR Top 50 players are playing this week in Las Vegas:

• Tom Kim 25
• Davis Thompson 40
• Cam Davis 43
• Stephan Jaeger 45
• Taylor Pendrith 46
• Matt McCarty 47

There will be 132 golfers in the field with 500 FedExCup points and a two-year PGA Tour exemption on the line. Friday’s cut line will include the top 65 and ties.

Here is this week’s full Shriners Children’s Open field. 

The Course

TPC Summerlin plays host this week. The course is located at the base of Red Rock Canyon in the community of Summerlin, which is about a 20-minute drive west of the Las Vegas Strip. The track was designed by Bobby Weed and Fuzzy Zoeller in 1991. It plays as a par-71 of 7,255 yards. 

There are 92 bunkers (fifth most on tour) and four water hazards (in play on four holes.). TPC Summerlin is an exposed desert track with very few trees. The Bermuda fairways are of average width (36 yards) but undulating. The Bermuda rough is only about 2.25 inches high, so it is not all that penal, but it will take away the ability to spin approach shots closer to the pins. The course is a rare combination of Bermuda fairways and rough to go along with Bentgrass greens. The only other course on tour with that combination is Colonial Country Club, home of the Charles Schwab Challenge. The greens are large (7,400 square feet average — fourth largest on tour) and of modest speed (11.5 stimpmeter). 

The track does play at around 2,700 feet of elevation (second highest on tour behind last week’s course at Black Desert Resort), so the ball flies about 3% farther than if at sea level and the course plays shorter than its listed distance of 7,255 yards due to not only the elevation but the firm fairways. 

Each of the par-5s are typically reachable in two shots. Because of the course’s elevation, that also includes the 606-yard 13th hole. Six of the 11 par-4s are between 420-450 yards and rank among the easiest group of par-4s on tour.

The final four holes typically provide an exciting closing stretch. The 15th features a drivable par-4 at 341 yards. Hole 16 is a risk/reward par-5 that is reachable in two shots while the 17th is a dangerous par-3 that has water on two sides. The final hole is a strong par-4 that sits at 444 yards. Overall, there is a ton of swing potential for scoring in this stretch.

Here is the scorecard for this week’s event courtesy of PGATOUR.com:

Correlated courses to TPC Summerlin include TPC Scottsdale, PGA West Stadium, TPC San Antonio, Waialae, Colonial, Silverado and CC Jackson. 

Shriners Children’s Open Recent History  

2023: Tom Kim (-20/264); 12-1

2022: Tom Kim (-24/260); 22-1

2021: Sungjae Im (-24/260); 30-1

2020: Martin Laird (-23/261); 225-1*

2019: Kevin Na (-23/261); 70-1**

2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-21/263); 14-1 

2017: Patrick Cantlay (-9/275); 20-1***

2016: Rod Pampling (-20/264); 300-1 

2015: Smylie Kaufman (-16/268); 250-1 

2014: Ben Martin (-20/264); 225-1 

2013: Webb Simpson (-24/260); 20-1 

2012: Ryan Moore (-24/260); 14-1 

2011: Kevin Na (-23/261); 60-1 

2010: Jonathan Byrd (-23/261); 50-1****

 Playoff win over Austin Cook and Matthew Wolff – *

Playoff win over Patrick Cantlay – **

Playoff win over Alex Cejka and Whee Kim (high winds and no player with all four rounds in the 60s) – ***

Playoff win over Martin Laird & Cameron Percy (hole-in-one on third playoff hole) – **** 

Trends and Angles

• Nine of the last 13 winners of the Shriners had finishes of T-16 or better at this event in a year before their win.
• 10 of the last 14 winners had a T-11 or better in their previous five tournaments leading up to their win.
• 10 of the last 13 winners were age 30 or younger. 
• 13 of the last 13 winners had already won a PGA Tour event. 

Statistical Analysis

Five of the last six winners at TPC Summerlin ranked sixth or better for Strokes Gained: Approach during their respective winning weeks. 

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Tom Hoge 0.795
2. Doug Ghim 0.701
3. Keith Mitchell 0.629
4. Henrik Norlander 0.531
5. Kurt Kitayama 0.511
6. Patton Kizzire 0.492
7. Andrew Novak 0.491
8. J.J. Spaun 0.468
9. Chez Reavie 0.447
10. Greyson Sigg 0.436
11. Joel Dahmen 0.424
12. Austin Eckroat 0.412
13. Jhonattan Vegas 0.409
14. Ryan Moore 0.401
15. Kevin Yu 0.397
16. David Skinns 0.395

In recent years, over one-third of approach shots at TPC Summerlin are wedges from 100-150 yards out. 

Average Proximity to the Hole 100-125 Yards (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Tom Hoge 15′ 3″
2. Roger Sloan 16′ 5″
3. Eric Cole 16′ 8″
4. Taylor Montgomery 16′ 8″
5. Charley Hoffman 16′ 11″
6. Pierceson Coody 17′ 0″
7. Kevin Streelman 17′ 4″
8. J.T. Poston 17′ 5″
9. Ryan McCormick 17′ 6″
10. Ryan Moore 17′ 8″
11. Nick Taylor 17′ 8″
12. Trace Crowe 17′ 10″
13. Adam Hadwin 17′ 11″
14. Patton Kizzire 18′ 0″
15. J.J. Spaun 18′ 1″
16. Seamus Power 18′ 3″

Average Proximity to the Hole 125-150 Yards (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Tom Hoge 19′ 5″
2. Joel Dahmen 20′ 2″
3. Tom Kim 20′ 3″
4. Chandler Phillips 20′ 5″
5. Justin Lower 20′ 7″
6. Roger Sloan 20′ 7″
7. Ben Kohles 20′ 9″
8. Doug Ghim 20′ 11″
9. Ryan Moore 20′ 11″
10. Robby Shelton 20′ 11″
11. Trace Crowe 21′ 0″
12. Emiliano Grillo 21′ 0″
13. Keith Mitchell 21′ 3″
14. K.H. Lee 21′ 4″
15. J.J Spaun 21′ 4″
16. Daniel Berger 21′ 6″
17. Ben Griffin 21′ 6″
18. Andrew Novak 21′ 6″

In 17 of the 20 years since the Shriners Children’s Open became a 72-hole event, the winning score has been 20 under or better, so you must make a ton of birdies or better to even contend here.

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Keith Mitchell 25.95%
2. Patton Kizzire 24.85
3. Harry Hall 24.80
4. Chan Kim 24.72
5. Trace Crowe 24.62
6. Hayden Springer 24.41
7. Jacob Bridgeman 24.35
8. Michael Kim 24.32
9. Jhonattan Vegas 24.23
10. Joe Highsmith 24.19
11. Tom Hoge 24.15
12. Taylor Pendrith 24.07
13. Charley Hoffman 23.90
14. Beau Hossler 23.88
15. Chandler Phillips 23.82
16. Justin Lower 23.79
17. Sam Ryder 23.71
18. Matti Schmid 23.71

TPC Summerlin has pure Bentgrass greens that will run on the slower side.

Strokes Gained: Bentgrass Putting  —  Average Per Round (Last 36 rounds)

1. J.T. Poston 0.90
2. Maverick McNealy 0.74
3. Dylan Wu 0.74
4. Harris English 0.62
5. Chandler Phillips 0.62 (18 rounds)
6. Aaron Baddeley 0.60
7. Brendon Todd 0.56
8. Harry Hall 0.55
9. Adam Hadwin 0.50
10. Patrick Fishburn 0.49 (20 rounds)
11. Justin Lower 0.47
12. Taylor Montgomery 0.43
13. Danny Willett 0.40
14. Martin Laird 0.40

Bombers like DeChambeau have won here, but for the most part, recent winners have been shorter hitters like Kevin Na, Tom Kim, Martin Laird, etc. 

Good Drive Percentage represents the percentage of time a player hits a good drive. On par-4s and par-5s, it is calculated by the number of fairways hit plus the number of greens or fringe in regulation when the drive was not in the fairway on the tee shot divided by the number of par-4s and par-5s played.

Good Drive Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Daniel Berger 86.93%
2. Patrick Fishburn 86.80
3. Carson Young 86.73
4. Greyson Sigg 86.62
5. Ryan Moore 86.59
6. Patton Kizzire 86.30
7. Jhonattan Vegas 86.03
8. Nate Lashley 85.86
9. Ben Kohles 85.71
10. Troy Merritt 85.62
11. Chan Kim 85.55
12. Doug Ghim 85.45
13. Chez Reavie 85.32
14. Andrew Putnam 85.18
15. Ben Silverman 85.15
16. Rico Hoey 85.06
17. Zac Blair 85.00
18. Joel Dahmen 84.95

Seven of the 11 par-4s measure 400 to 450 yards.

Strokes Gained Par-4s 400-450 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Roger Sloan 20.6
2. Chan Kim 18.5
3. Adam Svensson 17.5
4. Alex Smalley 16.7
5. Keith Mitchell 16.3
6. Justin Lower 15
7. Taylor Montgomery 14
8. Zac Blair 13.8
9. Chad Ramey 13.6
10. Ben Griffin 13.4
11. C.T. Pan 13.2
12. Tom Kim 10.8
13. Davis Thompson 10.3
14. Kevin Yu 10.2
15. Webb Simpson 10.1
16. Andrew Putnam 10

In recent years, TPC Summerlin has been one of the more difficult courses to gain strokes around the greens with the greens so heavily bunkered and the Bermuda rough that can stick to the club.

Strokes Gained: Around The Green  —  Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Harry Hall 0.442
2. Davis Thompson 0.425
3. Aaron Baddeley 0.419
4. Robby Shelton 0.394
5. Beau Hossler 0.375
6. Maverick McNealy 0.371
7. Martin Laird 0.366
8. C.T. Pan 0.355
9. Chan Kim 0.325
10. Brendon Todd 0.315
11. Ben Griffin 0.251
12. Andrew Putnam 0.225
13. Stephan Jaeger 0.220

Selections

Kurt Kitayama (30-1, DraftKings)

Kitayama ranked second in the field last week for Strokes Gained: Approach but finished T-25 due to a poor putting week. 

He has missed three cuts here but seemingly looks like he knocked off the rust after nine weeks off. 

Beau Hossler (31-1, Circa Sports)

Hossler was a respectable 11th (fourth tee-to-green) last week in Utah after the disappointment of losing in a playoff two weeks ago to Kevin Yu and the Sanderson Farms. 

He has finished seventh twice here at TPC Summerlin, including last year. 

Eric Cole (35-1, DraftKings)

Cole finished third here last year, closing with a final round of 62. 

He finished just 16th two starts ago at the Sanderson Farms but was first for Strokes Gained: Approach and second for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green. 

Harry Hall (45-1, DraftKings)

Hall played his college golf at UNLV and still resides in Las Vegas. 

He has two top-15 finishes here in three appearances. 

J.J. Spaun (45-1, FanDuel)

Spaun has finished inside the top 20 three times here at TPC Summerlin. 

He is just 10 weeks removed from finishing third at Wyndham, so he is capable of going well in birdie-fests. 

Daniel Berger (70-1, FanDuel)

Berger claimed he was 100% healthy for the first time in a couple of years when he finished seventh at the Sanderson Farms two weeks ago.

He has a good history with desert golf as evidenced by four top-11 finishes at the Phoenix Open. 

Placement markets and/or matchups will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks