Sony Open in Hawaii 2026 Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:
With The Sentry not being held this year because of drought conditions and water conservation mandates in Maui, the Sony Open in Hawaii kicks off the 2026 PGA Tour schedule.
The big news in the golf world this week, aside from the new season starting, is that five-time major champion Brooks Koepka will return to the PGA Tour and make his 2026 debut at the Farmers Insurance Open.
Koepka announced his return on X, and PGA Tour CEO Brian Rolapp posted an open letter detailing the tour’s “Returning member program.”
Back to this week, though, with the Sony Open in Hawaii held in Honolulu. While next week’s even at The American Express is an even more stacked field, we do have 26 of the Top 60 in the OWGR teeing it up at Waialae Country Club.
Russell Henley (11-1) is a former winner here (2011) and has finished no worse than 11th here in four of the last five years, including a 2022 playoff loss to Hideki Matsuyama (20-1), who won his last time out in December at the Hero World Challenge.
Ben Griffin (17-1) also won his last start at the World Wide Technology Championship in Mexico in November to cap a three-win season on the PGA Tour.
J.J. Spaun (19-1) was the 54-hole leader at last year’s Sony but ended up T-3. After a couple of runners-up, he achieved his career milestone, winning the U.S. Open in June to post his career season on tour.
Collin Morikawa (20-1) and Robert MacIntyre (22-1) both went winless on the PGA Tour in 2025, although MacIntyre did win on the DP World Tour.
Si Woo Kim (22-1) won here in 2023 and Keegan Bradley (22-1) was the runner-up in a playoff in 2024.
Maverick McNealy (30-1), Harry Hall (33-1) and Nick Taylor (35-1), who we cashed on here last year at 115-1 as the winner in a playoff over Nico Echavarria (50-1), comprise the next tier on the odds board.
Corey Conners (35-1), Aaron Rai (40-1), Chris Kirk (40-1), Kurt Kitayama (45-1), Adam Scott (45-1) and Jordan Spieth (45-1) make up the rest of the field priced at less than 50-1.
The Event
The Sony Open in Hawaii has been contested at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu since the event’s inception in 1965. Waialae has the third-longest tenure as an annual course on the PGA Tour behind Colonial Country Club and Pebble Beach Golf Links. It was originally contested as a mid-fall event in its first five years before moving earlier in the calendar to the late winter in 1971. Over the 55-year history of the event, there have only been five multiple champions: Hubert Green, Corey Pavin, Lanny Wadkins, Ernie Els and Jimmy Walker. In 2017, Justin Thomas won this event and set multiple tournament records in the process, including the tournament scoring record of 253 (-27), the course record and tournament low round record (59 – Round 1), the 36-hole record of 123 (-17) and the 54-hole record of 188 (-22).
The Field
This week, 120 players will tee it up at the Sony Open in Hawaii. The purse is $9.1 million with a winner’s share north of $1.5 million. FedEx Cup points earned will go toward the Aon Swing 5, the path to the next signature event, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
The Course
Waialae Country Club is a flat, bayside track where the scoring has gotten lower over the years. It plays as a par-70 of 7,044 yards and was designed in 1927 by Seth Raynor (also designed the Old White TPC, which hosted the Greenbrier Classic) and was last restored by Tom Doak in 2017.
Waialae CC is known as a shot-makers and second-shot golf course distinguished by relatively narrow fairways, sharp doglegs, unpredictable Bermuda rough and firm greens. It is positional golf, so it is not exactly a bomb-and-gouge type of track. Essentially you have to get the ball from Point A to Point B and make putts. The course is all Bermudagrass, including the TifDwarf Bermuda greens, which run average at 11.5 on the stimpmeter. The greens average 7,100 square feet, eighth largest on the PGA Tour.
The rough is three-inch Bermudagrass, so if players try to cut the corners from the tee boxes, they may end up with fliers coming out of the thick grass.
The layout has six doglegs, tight corners and palm-tree-lined fairways. Waialae has 83 bunkers throughout and four water holes. It is also one of the flattest courses on the PGA Tour, having the second-lowest elevation.
According to Data Golf, Waialae CC is second only to Augusta National in terms of predictive course history, so course form triumphs over recent form more often than not.
Comparable courses to Waialae include Port Royal (Bermuda Championship), Pebble Beach (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am), Harbour Town (RBC Heritage), Coco Beach (Puerto Rico Open), El Camaleon (Mayakoba Golf Classic), Sea Island GC (RSM Classic), Sedgefield CC (Wyndham Championship).
A flyover video of Waialae Country Club is provided on the Golf Frontier YouTube page
Weather
Scoring conditions at Waialae are largely determined by weather conditions, particularly the wind.
In 2020, Waialae was hit with upwards of 35- to 40-mph winds over the first two days, and the winning score was just 11 under. In 2021, the winds were 12-14 mph, and the winning score was 21 under. In 2022, it was light winds in the single digits, and 23 under was the winning score. The last three years have had winds in the middle teens, and this week’s AccuWeather forecast looks to be similar.
Sony Open Recent History/Winners
2025: Nick Taylor (-16/264); 110-1*
2024: Grayson Murray (-17/263); 400-1**
2023: Si Woo Kim (-18/262); 40-1
2022: Hideki Matsuyama (-23/257); 18-1***
2021: Kevin Na (-21/259); 66-1
2020: Cameron Smith (-11/269); 55-1****
2019: Matt Kuchar (-22/258); 40-1
2018: Patton Kizzire (-17/263); 80-1*****
2017: Justin Thomas (-27/253); 14-1
2016: Fabian Gomez (-20/260); 100-1******
2015: Jimmy Walker (-23/257); 18-1
2014: Jimmy Walker (-17/263); 40-1
2013: Russell Henley (-24/256); 100-1
2012: Johnson Wagner (-13/267); 125-1
2011: Mark Wilson (-16/264); 80-1
2010: Ryan Palmer (-15/265); 250-1
Playoff win over Nico Echavarria – *
Playoff win over Byeong Hun An and Keegan Bradley – **
Playoff win over Russell Henley – ***
Playoff win over Brendan Steele – ****
Playoff win over James Hahn – *****
Playoff win over Brandt Snedeker – ******
Statistical Analysis
Seven of the last 10 winners of the Sony Open in Hawaii rated seventh or better for Strokes Gained: Approach during their respective winning weeks, including Si Woo Kim, who led the field in the category three years ago.
With many back-to-front sloping greens and pins tucked into the corners, players must be precise with the irons.
Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)
- Collin Morikawa 0.765
- J.J. Spaun 0.738
- Rico Hoey 0.667
- Russell Henley 0.577
- Zac Blair 0.537
- Doug Ghim 0.531
- Hideki Matsuyama 0.483
- Aaron Rai 0.476
- Ben Griffin 0.466
- Lee Hodges 0.465
- Ryan Gerard 0.457
- Daniel Berger 0.456
- Nick Taylor 0.427
- Si Woo Kim 0.425
- Kurt Kitayama 0.389
- Chris Kirk 0.388
- Bud Cauley 0.377
- Michael Kim 0.368
- Gary Woodland 0.364
- Mac Meissner 0.340
Nearly two-thirds of the approach shots come from these ranges.
Proximity to the Hole 125-150 Yards (2025 PGA Tour season)
- Collin Morikawa 19′ 11″ (feet, inches)
- Chris Kirk 20′ 3″
- Keegan Bradley 20′ 7″
- Mac Meissner 20′ 8″
- Kurt Kitayama 21′ 0″
- Seamus Power 21′ 3″
- Tom Kim 21′ 4″
- Chandler Phillips 21′ 4″
- Corey Conners 21′ 7″
- Emiliano Grillo 21′ 7″
- J.J. Spaun 21′ 7″
- Eric Cole 21′ 10″
- Russell Henley 21′ 11″
- Michael Kim 21′ 11″
- Tom Hoge 22′ 1″
Proximity to the Hole 150-175 Yards (2025 PGA Tour season)
- Corey Conners 24′ 6″
- Rico Hoey 24′ 7″
- Tom Hoge 24′ 11″
- Tom Kim 25′ 6″
- Hideki Matsuyama 25′ 10″
- Brian Campbell 25′ 11″
- Daniel Berger 26′ 0″
- Russell Henley 26′ 0″
- Robert MacIntyre 26′ 0″
- Ryo Hisatsune 26′ 1″
- Collin Morikawa 26′ 1″
- Nico Echavarria 26′ 2″
- Luke Clanton 26′ 4″
- Nick Taylor 26′ 4″
- Joe Highsmith 26′ 5″
Proximity to the Hole 175-200 Yards (2025 PGA Tour season)
- Matti Schmid 28′ 7″
- Si Woo Kim 29′ 2″
- Alejandro Tosti 29′ 4″
- Hideki Matsuyama 29′ 9″
- Isaiah Salinda 30′ 2″
- Rico Hoey 30′ 4″
- Kurt Kitayama 30′ 11″
- Collin Morikawa 31′ 0″
- William Mouw 31′ 0″
- Erik van Rooyen 31′ 1″
- Lee Hodges 31′ 2″
- Matt McCarty 31′ 2″
- J.J. Spaun 31′ 2″
- Adam Svensson 31′ 2″
- Keegan Bradley 31′ 3″
- Luke Clanton 31′ 3″
Driving Accuracy is about 3% here at Waialae than the PGA Tour average.
The fairways are a bit wider than average, but there are tight corridors because of the palm trees and vegetation just off the fairways.
Good Drive Percentage measures good drives even when players miss the fairways but still reach the greens.
Good Drive Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)
- Takumi Kanaya 87.66%
- Aaron Rai 87.44
- Collin Morikawa 86.61
- Rico Hoey 85.89
- Brice Garnett 85.63
- Russell Henley 85.45
- Ricky Castillo 85.10
- Doug Ghim 84.95
- Zach Johnson 84.69
- Max McGreevy 84.30
- Si Woo Kim 84.24
- Lee Hodges 84.22
- Emiliano Grillo 84.19
- Zac Blair 84.05
- Matt McCarty 84.04
Players will “club down” and take less than driver off the tee because Waialae, at just over 7,000 yards, is one of the shorter courses on the Tour.
Strokes Gained Total — Courses < 7,200 Yards (Last 100 rounds)
- Russell Henley 151.5
- Daniel Berger 141.7
- Seamus Power 115.9
- Brian Harman 114.9
- Collin Morikawa 108.8
- Eric Cole 108.4
- Ben Griffin 105.1
- Denny McCarthy 103.5
- Corey Conners 97.2
- Keith Mitchell 97.1
- J.J. Spaun 94
- Maverick McNealy 92.3
- Hideki Matsuyama 91.2
- Keegan Bradley 90.2
- Tony Finau 80.6
12 of the 18 holes on this par-70 at Waialae are par-4s that range from 351 to 480 yards in length.
Par-4 Birdie-Or-Better Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)
- Harry Hall 22.35%
- Keith Mitchell 21.74
- Kurt Kitayama 21.57
- Jake Knapp 21.25
- Alex Smalley 20.80
- Danny Walker 20.55
- Russell Henley 20.03
- J.J. Spaun 19.88
- Isaiah Salinda 19.77
- Jordan Spieth 19.65
- Kevin Roy 19.55
- Pierceson Coody 19.53
- Corey Conners 19.52
- Rico Hoey 19.52
- Si Woo Kim 19.52
- Eric Cole 19.34
- Matti Schmid 19.30
- Ricky Castillo 19.29
- Zac Blair 19.13
- Erik van Rooyen 19.13
Hot putting can win here at Waialae as evidenced by Cameron Smith gaining 8.2 strokes in his 2020 win and Matsuyama gaining 7.3 strokes in his 2022 victory. These are flat and straightforward greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting — Bermuda Greens (Last 100 rounds)
- Ben Griffin 72.3
- Denny McCarthy 69.6
- Harry Hall 60.8
- Maverick McNealy 57.8
- Nico Echavarria 54.2
- Vince Whaley 35.7
- Billy Horschel 35.3
- Russell Henley 32.8
- Zach Johnson 30.9
- Beau Hossler 30.8
- Chad Ramey 30.7
- Jacob Bridgeman 29.8
- Adam Scott 26.9
- SH Kim 20
- Robert MacIntyre 19
- Sahith Theegala 18.8
- Emiliano Grillo 17.5
- Patrick Rodgers 16.4
- Brian Harman 16.2
Chipping is a bit more difficult from the tricky Bermuda rough around the grainy greens here at Waialae.
Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)
- Patton Kizzire 0.506
- Hideki Matsuyama 0.477
- Russell Henley 0.449
- Keegan Bradley 0.443
- Beau Hossler 0.426
- Harry Hall 0.384
- Si Woo Kim 0.350
- Peter Malnati 0.332
- Takumi Kanaya 0.325
- Mac Meissner 0.276
- Davis Riley 0.270
- Adam Svensson 0.255
- Tony Finau 0.206
- Jordan Spieth 0.204
- Vince Whaley 0.199
- Steven Fisk 0.197
- Tom Kim 0.197
- Chandler Phillips 0.182
- Sam Stevens 0.182
- Kurt Kitayama 0.170
Selections
J.J. Spaun (19-1, FanDuel)
Spaun was the 54-hole leader here last year and somehow found himself out of the playoff, settling for a T-3 finish.
After his near-miss here last year at Waialae, Spaun posted runner-up finishes at the Cognizant Classic and The Players Championship before achieving his career milestone to this point with a U.S. Open victory at Oakmont last June.
Many players tend to get comfortable or complacent after achieving such a milestone. Spaun, on the other hand, has continued good form with a runner-up at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, a fourth at the Hero World Challenge and a sixth at the Procore Championship.
He ranks second in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach and has proved to be one of the game’s elite iron players.
Corey Conners (33-1, BetMGM)
Conners has not won since April 2023, but he is a model of consistency on the PGA Tour with 13 top-10 finishes over the last two seasons and he has kept his OWGR in the 30s and currently stands ranked 30th in the world.
The Canadian is always a good ball striker (24th SG: Off The Tee and 39th SG: Approach last season) but not always a reliable putter. However, he made the biggest jump of his career last season, finishing 67th for Strokes Gained: Putting, the first season not ranking outside the Top 100.
Conners was third here in 2019.
Chris Kirk (45-1, Caesars Sportsbook)
Kirk has come close here with two runners-up (2014, 2021) and a third.
He has also played well in correlated events and courses like the RSM Classic (2013 win), Colonial (2015 win) and at PGA National (2023 win).
Rico Hoey (50-1, Caesars Sportsbook)
Hoey rose into the OWGR Top 70 courtesy of six top-10 finishes and also being one of the game’s best ball strikers.
The man from the Philippines ranked third for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and eighth for Strokes Gained: Approach. Only Scottie Scheffler, the world’s No. 1, ranked ahead of Hoey for Strokes Gained: Tee To Green on the PGA Tour last year.
Matt McCarty (55-1, Bet Rivers)
After earning the “battlefield promotion” (three Korn Ferry Tour wins) to the PGA Tour in 2024 and then winning the Black Desert Championship in his second event as a PGA Tour member, McCarty was not able to get into the winner’s circle in 2025.
McCarty closed 2015 with three top-8 finishes in his last five starts and can keep the momentum going here.
Daniel Berger (66-1, BetMGM)
After returning from injury that kept him out of action for 18 months, Berger returned in 2024 and kept his PGA Tour card. Last year, he finished inside the OWGR Top 60 and inside the Top 50 in the FedEx Cup.
The next step is now to get back into the winner’s circle. He has won on similar courses at Pebble Beach (coastal) and Colonial (shorter par-70).
Max McGreevy (90-1, DraftKings)
McGreevy has missed the cut in all three of his appearances.
He was a three-time winner in 2024 with two Korn Ferry victories and at the Dunlop Phoenix on the Japan Golf Tour. However, he went winless in 2025 but ended the calendar year with a third and a second, losing by one stroke to Sami Valimaki in the season finale at the RSM Classic.
Placement markets, matchups, and any other wagers will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks
