Sony Open in Hawaii Best Bets and Golf Odds

Sony Open in Hawaii Best Bets and Golf Odds:

Hideki Matsuyama broke the PGA Tour record to par for 72 holes by closing with an 8-under 65 for a three-shot victory over Collin Morikawa in The Sentry on Sunday. Matsuyama’s 35-under-par mark of 257 broke the record by one of 34 under par by Cameron Smith set at Kapalua in 2022. This column settled for a runner-up as Morikawa’s 32-under-par mark was not good enough. Perhaps that was payback for this column hitting Smith in the 2022 Sentry. Nonetheless, while we stay in the Aloha State, we move on to the Sony Open in Hawaii at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. 

Matsuyama (9-1) will attempt to sweep the Aloha Swing and win the Sony. He is now No. 5 in the OWGR and will look to win the Sony for the second time (2022). 

Corey Conners (14-1) was in the final pairing with Matsuyama and Morikawa on Saturday but ended up T-5. The Canadian has three top-6 finishes in his last three events. 

Tom Kim (20-1) was runner-up in November at the Genesis Championship in South Korea to his countryman Byeong Hun An (22-1), who lost in a playoff here last year. Kim also finished runner-up at the Hero World Challenge in December. 

Russell Henley (20-1) won this event in 2013, was runner-up to Matsuyama in 2022 and finished T-4 here last year. 

Aside from Benny An, Keegan Bradley (25-1), a tip for us last year, also lost in the playoff here to the late Grayson Murray. 

Maverick McNealy (28-1) finally got his maiden win in the PGA Tour finale last November at the RSM Classic and is off a T-8 finish last week in Maui. 

The mid-range price tier starts with Robert MacIntyre (30-1), Kurt Kitayama (35-1), Sahith Theegala (35-1), 2023 Sony Open champions Si-Woo Kim (35-1) and Taylor Pendrith (35-1), who finished top 10 here last year.

Other former Sony Open champions in this week’s field include 2019 winner Matt Kuchar (80-1), 2017 winner Patton Kizzire (175-1), 2010 winner Ryan Palmer (750-1) and 2009 winner Zach Johnson (300-1). 

The Event 

The Sony Open in Hawaii has been contested at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu since the event’s inception in 1965. Waialae has the third-longest tenure as an annual course on the PGA Tour behind Colonial Country Club and Pebble Beach Golf Links. It was contested as a mid-fall event during its first five years before being moved earlier in the calendar to the late winter in 1971. Over the 55-year history of the event, there have been only five multiple champions: Hubert Green, Corey Pavin, Lanny Wadkins, Ernie Els and Jimmy Walker. In 2017, Justin Thomas won this event and set multiple tournament records in the process including the tournament scoring record of 253 (-27), the course record and tournament low round record (59 – Round 1), the 36-hole record of 123 (-17) and the 54-hole record of 188 (-22).

The Field

Thirty-five players who teed it up at Kapalua last week at The Sentry will also be playing this week in the Sony, but most of the 144 players will be making their first start in 2025. 

In terms of the depth, this is one of the better Sony fields in recent memory with 20 of the Top 50 in the OWGR playing this week. 

The purse is $8,700,000 with a winner’s share of $1.56 million. FedEx Cup points earned will go toward the Aon Swing 5, the path to the next signature event, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Here is the full Sony Open field courtesy of PGA Tour Media:

The Course 

Waialae Country Club is a flat, bayside track where the scoring has gotten lower over the years. It plays as a par-70 of 7,044 yards and was designed in 1927 by Seth Raynor (also designed the Old White TPC, which hosted the Greenbrier Classic) and was last restored by Tom Doak in 2017.

Waialae CC is known as a shot-makers and second-shot golf course distinguished by relatively narrow fairways, sharp doglegs, unpredictable Bermuda rough and firm greens. It is positional golf, so it is not exactly a bomb-and-gouge type of track. Essentially you have to get the ball from Point A to Point B and make putts. The course is all Bermudagrass, including the TifDwarf Bermuda greens, which run average at 11.5 on the stimpmeter. The greens average 7,100 square feet, eighth largest on the PGA Tour. 

The rough is three-inch Bermudagrass, so if players try to cut the corners off the tee, they may end up with fliers coming out of the thick grass. 

The layout has six doglegs, tight corners and palm-tree-lined fairways. Waialae has 83 bunkers throughout and four water holes. It is also one of the flattest courses on the PGA Tour having the second-lowest elevation. 

Wind, or lack thereof, is ordinarily a determining factor and the last two years provide the clearest evidence. In 2020, Waialae was hit with upwards of 35-40 mph winds over the first two days and the winning score was just 11 under. In 2021, the winds were at around 12-14 mph and the winning score was 21 under. The next year featured light winds in the single digits and 23 under was the winning score.

According to Data Golf, Waialae CC is second only to Augusta National in terms of predictive course history, so course form triumphs over recent form more often than not. 

Comparable courses to Waialae include Port Royal (Bermuda Championship), Pebble Beach (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am), Harbour Town (RBC Heritage), Coco Beach (Puerto Rico Open), El Camaleon (Mayakoba Golf Classic), Sea Island GC (RSM Classic), Sedgefield CC (Wyndham Championship). 

You will notice that Kapalua is not a strong comparison to Waialae. While Kapalua has enormous amounts of slope and is a physically demanding walk, Waialae is one of the flattest courses on tour and is perhaps the easiest walk. The sizes of the courses are also completely different. Whereas Kapalua has massively wide fairways, Waialae has tight tree-lined fairways. The greens are also dissimilar from each other. Kapalua’s are much bigger with more slope and grain while Waialae’s are smaller, flatter and easier to make putts.

A flyover video of Waialae Country Club is provided on the Golf Frontier YouTube page 

Sony Open Recent History/Winners

2024: Grayson Murray (-17/263); 400-1

2023: Si Woo Kim (-18/262); 40-1

2022: Hideki Matsuyama (-23/257); 18-1**

2021: Kevin Na (-21/259); 66-1

2020: Cameron Smith (-11/269); 55-1***

2019: Matt Kuchar (-22/258); 40-1

2018: Patton Kizzire (-17/263); 80-1****

2017: Justin Thomas (-27/253); 14-1

2016: Fabian Gomez (-20/260); 100-1*****

2015: Jimmy Walker (-23/257); 18-1

2014: Jimmy Walker (-17/263); 40-1

2013: Russell Henley (-24/256); 100-1

2012: Johnson Wagner (-13/267); 125-1

2011: Mark Wilson (-16/264); 80-1

2010: Ryan Palmer (-15/265); 250-1

Playoff win over Byeong Hun An and Keegan Bradley – *

Playoff win over Russell Henley – **

Playoff win over Brendan Steele – ***

Playoff win over James Hahn – ****

Playoff win over Brandt Snedeker – *****

Trends and Angles

In eight of the last 12 years, having an extra week on the islands has proven to be an advantage.

Year	Winner	Previous Week Result at Kapalua
2024	Grayson Murray	DNP
2023	Si Woo Kim	DNP
2022	Hideki Matsuyama	13th
2021	Kevin Na	13th
2020	Cameron Smith	DNP
2019	Matt Kuchar	19th
2018	Patton Kizzire	15th
2017	Justin Thomas	1st
2016	Fabian Gomez	6th
2015	Jimmy Walker	2nd
2014	Jimmy Walker	21st
2013	Russell Henley	DNP
2012	Johnson Wagner	9th

• 17 of the last 26 winners of the Sony Open had played the Tournament of Champions the week before.
• 5 of the last 10 winners of the Sony Open had already won in the Fall or in the Swing Season.
• Only 5 winners of this event, since 2000 have been under age 30.
• Last year, 39 players played the week prior at The Sentry and 8 of those finished in the top 10 and 31 made the cut (keep in mind The Sentry field was first expanded in 2021). 

Statistical Analysis

Six of the last nine winners of the Sony Open in Hawaii rated seventh or better for Strokes Gained: Approach during their respective winning weeks including Si Woo Kim, who led the field in the category two years ago. 

With many back-to-front sloping greens and pins tucked into the corners, players must be precise with the irons.

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (The Sentry)

1.  Hideki Matsuyama 2.29
2. Tom Hoge 1.39
3. Maverick McNealy 1.18
4. Robert MacIntyre 1.08
5. Sepp Straka 0.91
6. Harry Hall 0.87
7. Taylor Pendrith 0.72
8. Austin Eckroat 0.71
9. Cam Davis 0.61
10. Keegan Bradley 0.60
11. Russell Henley 0.46
12. Corey Conners 0.37
13. Nick Taylor 0.27

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Corey Conners 0.78
2. Tom Hoge 0.75
3. Lucas Glover 0.71
4. Doug Ghim 0.66
5. Kurt Kitayama 0.61
6. Henrik Norlander 0.57
7. Keith Mitchell 0.53
8. Si Woo Kim 0.51
9. Hideki Matsuyama 0.50
10. Joel Dahmen 0.49
11. J.J. Spaun 0.47
12. Patton Kizzire 0.46
13. Andrew Novak 0.43

Two-thirds of the approach shots come from 125-200 yards.

Proximity to the Hole 125-150 yards (The Sentry)

1. Hideki Matsuyama 10′ 1″ (feet, inches)
2. Nick Dunlap 13′ 9″
3. Keegan Bradley 16′ 8″
4. Cam Davis 16′ 10″
5. Denny McCarthy 19′ 2″
6. Eric Cole 20′ 3″
7. Thomas Detry 20′ 11″
8. Rafael Campos 21′ 0″

Proximity to the Hole 125-150 Yards (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Tom Hoge 19′ 9″
2. Joel Dahmen 19′ 11″
3. Tom Kim 20′ 2″
4. Justin Lower 20′ 4″
5. Mac Meissner 20′ 5″
6. Doug Ghim 20′ 6″
7. Russell Henley 20′ 9″
8. J.J Spaun 20′ 9″

Proximity to the Hole 150-175 Yards (The Sentry)

1. Robert MacIntyre 16′ 3″
2. Chris Kirk 22′ 4″
3. Corey Conners 23′ 1″
4. Maverick McNealy 23′ 4″
5. Tom Hoge 23′ 6″
6. Nico Echavarria 24′ 4″
7. Brice Garnett 25′ 0″
8. Sepp Straka 26′ 6″

Proximity to the Hole 150-175 Yards (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Kurt Kitayama 23′ 10″
2. Keegan Bradley 24′ 4″
3. Bud Cauley 25′ 2″
4. Joel Dahmen 25′ 2″
5. Doug Ghim 25′ 3″
6. Emiliano Grillo 25′ 3″
7. Mac Meissner 25′ 4″
8. Keith Mitchell 25′ 4″

Proximity to the Hole 175-200 Yards (The Sentry)

1. Sepp Straka 18′ 4″
2. Tom Hoge 20′ 5″
3. Keegan Bradley 21′ 9″
4. Billy Horschel 22′ 9″
5. Chris Kirk 22′ 11″
6. Denny McCarthy 23′ 1″
7. Patton Kizzire 23′ 2″
8. Hideki Matsuyama 24′ 8″

Proximity to the Hole 175-200 Yards (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Henrik Norlander 27′ 9″
2. Hideki Matsuyama 29′ 8″
3. Adam Hadwin 29′ 11″
4. Matti Schmid 30′ 1″
5. Kurt Kitayama 30′ 3″
6. Doug Ghim 30′ 7″
7. Byeong Hun An 30′ 8″
8. Joel Dahmen 30′ 9″

Driving Accuracy is about 4% lower at Waialae than the PGA Tour average. 

The fairways are a bit wider than average, but there are tight corridors due to the palm trees and vegetation just off the fairways.

Good Drive Percentage measures good drives even when players miss the fairways but still reach the greens. 

Good Drive Percentage (The Sentry)

1. Russell Henley 98.33%
2. Hideki Matsuyama 98.33
3. Maverick McNealy 96.67
4. Corey Conners 95.00
5. Robert MacIntyre 95.00
6. Thomas Detry 93.33
7. Nico Echavarria 93.33
8. Chris Gotterup 93.33
9. Tom Hoge 93.33
10. Taylor Pendrith 93.33
11. J.T. Poston 93.33
12. Nick Taylor 93.33

Good Drive Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Greyson Sigg 87.55%
2. Daniel Berger 87.24
3. Patrick Fishburn 87.11
4. Carson Young 86.55
5. Doug Ghim 86.25
6. Patton Kizzire 86.11
7. Rico Hoey 85.91
8. Nate Lashley 85.77
9. Ben Kohles 85.67
10. Sam Ryder 85.51
11. Joel Dahmen 85.36
12. Chan Kim 85.24

Players will “club down” and take less than driver off the tee because Waialae, at just over 7000 yards, is one of the shorter courses on the tour.

Strokes Gained: Total — Courses Under 7,200 yards (Last 50 rounds)

1. Eric Cole 70.8
2. Brian Harman 69.1
3. Russell Henley 67.9
4. Keegan Bradley 60.3
5. Sahith Theegala 58.8
6. Daniel Berger 58.5
7. J.T. Poston 58.5
8. J.J. Spaun 56.9
9. Corey Conners 55.2
10. Denny McCarthy 54.7
11. Tom Kim 53.8 (41 rounds)
12. Seamus Power 50.4

12 of the 18 holes on this par-70 at Waialae are par-4s that range from 351 to 480 yards in length.

Par-4 Birdie Or Better Percentage (The Sentry)

1. Hideki Matsuyama 46.18%
2. Cam Davis 40.91
3. Harry Hall 38.64
4. Thomas Detry 36.36
5. Corey Conners 34.09
6. Sepp Straka 34.09
7. Chris Gotterup 29.55
8. Adam Hadwin 29.55
9. Stephan Jaeger 29.55
10. Taylor Pendrith 29.55

Par-4 Birdie Or Better Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Taylor Pendrith 21.18
2. Patton Kizzire 21.10
3. Jacob Bridgeman 20.90
4. Carson Young 20.69
5. Keith Mitchell 20.62
6. Nick Dunlap 20.58
7. Vince Whaley 20.50
8. Justin Lower 20.43
9. Chandler Phillips 20.30
10. Chris Kirk 20.23
11. Zach Johnson 20.14
12. Michael Kim 20.11
13. Harry Hall 20.02
14. Maverick McNealy 20.00

There is some tricky Bermuda rough around the grainy greens at Waialae.

Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (The Sentry)

1. Patton Kizzire 0.49
2. Byeong Hun An 0.47
3. Peter Malnati 0.45
4. Harry Hall 0.44
5. Tom Hoge 0.43
6. Hideki Matsuyama 0.34
7. J.T. Poston 0.27
8. Stephan Jaeger 0.24
9. Denny McCarthy 0.17
10. Taylor Pendrith 0.16
11. Cam Davis 0.13
12. Thomas Detry 0.10

Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Hideki Matsuyama 0.58
2. Webb Simpson 0.58
3. Mackenzie Hughes 0.44
4. Davis Thompson 0.43
5. Harry Hall 0.41
6. Aaron Baddeley 0.40
7. Maverick McNealy 0.37
8. C.T. Pan 0.36
9. Denny McCarthy 0.36
10. Chan Kim 0.32
11. Brendon Todd 0.30
12. Russell Henley 0.29

Hot putting can win at Waialae as evidenced by Cameron Smith gaining 8.2 strokes in his 2020 win and Matsuyama gaining 7.3 strokes in his 2022 victory. These are flat and straightforward greens.

Strokes Gained Putting — Bermuda Greens (Last 50 rounds)

1. Taylor Montgomery 50.4
2. Chad Ramey 41
3. Ben Griffin 38.2
4. Mackenzie Hughes 37.1
5. Thomas Detry 35.4
6. Denny McCarthy 34.6
7. Harris English 24.9
8. Matt Kuchar 24.5
9. Andrew Putnam 23.8
10. Sahith Theegala 23

Selections

Tom Kim (24-1, Circa Sports)

Tom Kim finished off a disappointing 2024 season in high-end form with a runner-up at the Genesis Championship in South Korea to countryman Benny An and another runner-up at the Hero World Challenge to good buddy Scottie Scheffler, just like at the Travelers Championship (when we were unfortunately on another runner-up).

In addition, he was also runner-up at the mixed pairs (partnered with Jeeno Thitikul) Grant Thornton Invitational unofficial event in December. 

He missed the cut here last year as a poor putting week cost him, but he flourishes on these shorter, ball-striking heavy courses as evident from his wins at Sedgefield and TPC Summerlin. 

Maverick McNealy (29-1, Circa Sports)

McNealy finally broke through for his maiden PGA Tour win in the season finale at the RSM Classic. 

Last week, he finished T-8 at The Sentry where he ranked top 5 for Strokes Gained: Approach and GIR. 

He had net zero putting week last week, but he is routinely ranked as one of the PGA Tour’s top putters. 

Austin Eckroat (40-1, DraftKings)

Eckroat was a two-time winner last season at PGA National and at the World Wide Technology Championship last November (an outright winner for this column). 

He finished T-15 last week at The Sentry and comes to a course where he was the 36-hole leader last year, which should suit his draw off the tee.

Sepp Straka (60-1, FanDuel)

Straka ranked inside the top 10 in ball-striking last week en route to a T-15 finish. 

The Austrian has won at PGA National (2022 Cognizant Classic) and two top-5 finishes at Harbour Town, which are both correlated courses, particularly as shorter layouts. 

Daniel Berger (65-1, Circa Sports)

Berger struggled for most of the 2024 season to find his game after returning from 18 months off for a back injury. 

He finished the year making six consecutive cuts including a T-2 in the season finale at the RSM Classic to keep his PGA Tour card. 

Berger also has a win at Colonial (2020 Charles Schwab Challenge) and runners-up at PGA National and Sea Island, so he is comfortable on shorter layouts. 

Nick Taylor (115-1, Circa Sports)

Taylor has finished seventh here at Waialae each of the last two years. 

He ranked third from the bottom last week at Kapalua for putting but should find these flatter greens more to his liking. 

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