Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:
Matt Fitzpatrick appeared as if he was going to win THE PLAYERS Championship a little over one week ago until Cameron Young’s birdie on the famous TPC Sawgrass 17th and a poor drive on 18. He has been primed to win again on the PGA TOUR for a while now, but some like me (and others who had been chasing his seemingly inevitable win this season) thought that perhaps it would be tough to get over that disappointment just a few days later. It certainly was difficult, but Fitzpatrick was able to do so quickly with a victory last weekend at the Valspar Championship.
Fitzpatrick, who opened at around 20/1 last week, made a 15-footer for birdie on the closing hole Sunday to hold on for a one-shot victory at 11-under par over David Lipsky. Fitzpatrick’s fellow Englishman Jordan Smith finished solo 3rd. Xander Schauffele shot Sunday’s low round of 65 to finish T-4 along with Marco Penge and Sungjae Im, who led for the first three days of the tournament in just his third event back from wrist surgery. Patrick Cantlay, Stephan Jaeger, Emiliano Grillo, and SH Kim finished T-7 to round out the top 10. Presidents Cup captain Brandt Snedeker, now 45 and whose last of his nine PGA TOUR victories came in August 2018, shared the lead at one point on Sunday as well before finishing T-18.
The preparation for Augusta continues this week with the first of a “Texas two-step” in Houston for the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who had been runner-up here in consecutive years, withdrew from the field early Tuesday morning.
Defending Houston Open champion Min Woo Lee, who we hit a winner last year at 35/1, is now the favorite anywhere from 12 to 15/1.
Chris Gotterup (20/1) is already a two-time winner (Sony Open in Hawaii, WM Phoenix Open) this season on the PGA TOUR.
The next group on the board includes Jake Knapp (22/1), Sam Burns (25/1), Brooks Koepka (24/1), Rickie Fowler (28/1), Nicolai Højgaard (33/1), Kurt Kitayama (33/1), Penge (33/1), and Michael Thorbjornsen (33/1).
Jaeger, the champion two years ago and also an outright winner for us at 50/1, is 70/1 this week.
The Event
The Houston Open’s history on the PGA TOUR dates to 1946. After years at a wide variety of venues in the greater Houston area, the tournament returned to Memorial Park Golf Course last year for the first time since 1963. Golf legends and hall of famers, including Arnold Palmer, Gary Player, Curtis Strange, Raymond Floyd, Payne Stewart, Fred Couples, Vijay Singh, and Phil Mickelson, have achieved victory here. Houston has long been a mainstay on the PGA TOUR, and Jim Crane, the owner of the Houston Astros, who was once named the best CEO Golfer in America by Golf Digest, saved this tournament from extinction several years ago. Crane was the lead fundraiser for the major makeover of the city-owned Memorial Park course. The Astros Foundation operates the tournament. Shell Oil Company sponsored the event from 1992-2017. Crane’s Astros Foundation operates the tournament, and Texas Children’s Hospital is the title sponsor of the tournament.
The Field
135 players are in this week’s field at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, including seven top 30 OWGR players. They are playing for a $9.9 million purse with $1.782 million going to the winner.
The Course
In 2020, Memorial Park Golf Course served as the Houston Open venue for the first time in 57 years. It is a municipal course owned by the city of Houston and is rated as the top municipal track in the state of Texas. The Astros Foundation, which operates the tournament, committed $34 million to the renovation and redesign. The greens fee for a weekend round is $38. John Bredemus designed the track in 1935, but Tom Doak, whose main influences include Alister MacKenzie and Pete Dye, finished the renovation in 2019, with an assist from Brooks Koepka.
Memorial Park plays as a Par 70 (5 Par 3s, 3 Par 5s, 10 Par 4s) of 7,475 yards. Aside from Torrey Pines, Memorial Park is the second-longest non-major course on the PGA TOUR. Doak removed many trees, bunkers (only 24 on the course – fewest of any course on the PGA TOUR) and water (only in play on four holes) to make it more playable to the public as there around 55,000 rounds played at Memorial Park in a calendar year.
Due to the tournament moving from its fall slot (where it had been held since 2020) to the spring starting in 2024t, the agronomy is completely different. The all-Bermudagrass course is now overseeded with Poa trivialis on the greens. But the biggest change is switching from penal 2.5″ Bermuda rough to the much easier and shorter 1.25″ ryegrass rough.
The greens (7,000 sq ft average) will still be firm and rolling fast at around 12.5 on the stimpmeter. Many of the greens are elevated and also have run-off areas and false fronts.
Three of the five Par 3s are 200 yards or longer, and eight Par 4s are in the mid-400s in terms of yardage range with five of them being close to 500 yards or longer.
Comparable courses include Golf Club of Houston, Renaissance Club, Southern Hills, Quail Hollow, Congaree, Augusta National, Colonial, TPC Scottsdale, PGA National, and Riviera.
Weather
Conditions look to be typically firm and fast this week in Houston, per the AccuWeather forecast.
Houston Open Recent History/Winners
2025: Min Woo Lee (-20/260); 40/1
2024: Stephan Jaeger (-12/268); 50/1
2023: No Tournament
2022: Tony Finau (-16/264); 22/1
2021: Jason Kokrak (-10/270); 50/1
2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13/267); 160/1
2019: Lanto Griffin (-14/274); 60/1
2018: Ian Poulter (-19/269); 100/1*
2017: Russell Henley (-20/268); 40/1
2016: Jim Herman (-15/273); 400/1
2015: J.B. Holmes (-16/272); 28/1**
2014: Matt Jones (-15/273); 125/1***
2013: D.A. Points (-16/272); 250/1
2012: Hunter Mahan (-16/272); 22/1
2011: Phil Mickelson (-20/268); 18/1
2010: Anthony Kim (-12/276); 25/1****
Playoff win over Beau Hossler – *
Playoff win over Jordan Spieth and Johnson Wagner – **
Playoff win over Matt Kuchar – ***
Playoff win over Vaughn Taylor – ****
Note: From 2010-2018 the event was played in April, and all events were played at the Golf Club of Houston. In 2020, the Houston Open moved to a fall event at Memorial Park before moving to the spring in 2024.
Statistical Analysis
Since moving to Memorial Park, here are the rankings for Strokes Gained: Approach that the event winners have posted during their respective winning weeks:
2025: MW Lee +3.96 (14th)
2024: Jaeger +1.44 (37th)
2022: Finau +5.32 (9th)
2021: Kokrak +6.44 (2nd)
2020: Ortiz +3.48 (14th)
Memorial Park is not the easiest to gain strokes on approach due to the undulations of the greens.
Strokes Gained: Approach – Average Per Round (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Brooks Koepka 1.089
- Ryan Gerard 0.821
- Adam Scott 0.789
- Sam Ryder 0.695
- Kurt Kitayama 0.642
- Zecheng Dou 0.586
- Nicolai Højgaard 0.545
- Austin Eckroat 0.534
- Shane Lowry 0.493
- Chris Gotterup 0.486
- Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.475
- Wyndham Clark 0.468
- David Ford 0.452
- David Lipsky 0.396
- Haotong Li 0.390
- Chris Kirk 0.384
- Pierceson Coody 0.369
- Patton Kizzire 0.346
- Davis Thompson 0.343
- Chandler Blanchet 0.329
Around 1/3 of the approach shots will be from 200+ yards.
Average Proximity to the Hole 200+ Yards (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Sudarshan Yellamaraju 41′ 1″
- Chandler Blanchet 41′ 3″
- Ryan Fox 41′ 8″
- Shane Lowry 42′ 3″
- Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 42′ 8″
- Brooks Koepka 43′ 5″
- Adam Scott 43′ 8″
- Michael Brennan 43′ 9″
- Thorbjørn Olesen 43′ 9″
- Karl Vilips 44′ 6″
- Rasmus Højgaard 45′ 2″
- Garrick Higgo 45′ 7″
- Jake Knapp 45′ 8″
- Michael Thorbjornsen 45′ 8″
- Pierceson Coody 45′ 11″
- Alex Smalley 46′ 3″
- Dan Brown 46′ 5″
- Nicolai Højgaard 46′ 6″
- Haotong Li 46′ 7″
- Emiliano Grillo 46′ 10″
- Max Greyserman 46′ 11″
With few hazards on the course and fairly non-penal rough, players can frequently use the driver off the tee.
Driving Distance (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Gary Woodland 325.1
- Aldrich Potgieter 322.6
- Michael Brennan 322.5
- Jesper Svensson 322.0
- Rasmus Højgaard 319.3
- Chris Gotterup 319.1
- Marco Penge 317.3
- Jake Knapp 317.0
- Pierceson Coody 316.0
- Johnny Keefer 315.7
- Gordon Sargent 315.5
- Min Woo Lee 315.3
- Nicolai Højgaard 315.2
- Sudarshan Yellamaraju 314.7
- Ryan Fox 314.4
- Isaiah Salinda 313.9
- Christo Lamprecht 313.8
- Pontus Nyholm 312.5
- Jordan Smith 312.2
- Taylor Pendrith 311.7
- Michael Thorbjornsen 311.6
- Sam Burns 311.5
- Adam Scott 311.5
Memorial Park is about hitting it long and hitting it hard off the tee and onto these firm and fast fairways.
Ball Speed (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Gary Woodland 188.79 mph
- Aldrich Potgieter 188.74
- Rasmus Højgaard 187.78
- Nicolai Højgaard 187.64
- Christo Lamprecht 186.97
- Gordon Sargent 186.91
- Michael Brennan 186.86
- Marco Penge 186.86
- Jesper Svensson 186.53
- Min Woo Lee 186.14
- Jake Knapp 185.93
- Kurt Kitayama 184.25
- Alejandro Tosti 184.15
- Adam Scott 184.12
- Chris Gotterup 183.85
- Luke Clanton 183.39
- Johnny Keefer 183.20
- Sudarshan Yellamaraju 183.19
- Isaiah Salinda 182.26
- Pierceson Coody 181.88
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart 181.85
- Wyndham Clark 181.76
- Pontus Nyholm 181.58
With the speed of the greens, plus the run-off areas and false fronts, players will need a tidy short game to win here. A little over 1/4 of all the strokes gained here are Strokes Gained: Around The Green.
Strokes Gained: Around The Green – Average Per Round (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Beau Hossler 0.635
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart 0.619
- Scottie Scheffler 0.618
- David Lipsky 0.617
- Jason Day 0.482
- Doug Ghim 0.462
- Andrew Putnam 0.455
- Davis Chatfield 0.453
- Ben Griffin 0.450
- Harry Hall 0.441
- Tony Finau 0.403
- Eric Cole 0.392
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.359
- Patton Kizzire 0.357
- Min Woo Lee 0.316
- Jesper Svensson 0.311
- Adam Schenk 0.310
- Ryan Fox 0.283
- Zecheng Dou 0.281
- Sahith Theegala 0.280
Scrambling (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Kris Ventura 75.58%
- Jake Knapp 71.21
- Kurt Kitayama 70.31
- Jason Day 69.91
- Nicolai Højgaard 68.49
- David Lipsky 68.14
- SH Kim 67.93
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart 67.1
- Rickie Fowler 66.67
- Ryan Fox 66.67
- Davis Chatfield 66.15
- Sahith Theegala 66.00
- Matthieu Pavon 65.93
- Adam Scott 65.93
- Harry Hall 65.15
- Beau Hossler 65.14
- Stephan Jaeger 65.00
- David Ford 64.96
- Davis Thompson 64.96
- Andrew Putnam 64.57
- Scottie Scheffler 64.52
The greens are still sloped and will run fast, so players will have a test in avoiding bogeys and three-putts.
Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Jake Knapp 10.61% (percentage of time player makes bogey)
- Kurt Kitayama 10.67
- Kris Ventura 10.68
- Rickie Fowler 1.34
- Jason Day 11.39
- Scottie Scheffler 11.57
- Nicolai Højgaard 12.50
- Ryan Gerard 12.59
- David Lipsky 12.65
- Ryan Fox 12.85
- Davis Thompson 12.89
- A.J. Ewart 12.90
- Adam Scott 12.96
- Haotong Li 13.13
- Sam Stevens 13.15
- Sudarshan Yellamaraju 13.17
- David Ford 13.19
- Sahith Theegala 13.24
- SH Kim 13.29
- Mackenzie Hughes 13.33
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart 13.43
- Chris Gotterup 13.46
- John Parry 13.49
Memorial Park has played easier since the agronomy and calendar changes and no more so than last year with the winning score being 20-under par.
Birdie Or Better Percentage (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Scottie Scheffler 30.79%
- Min Woo Lee 28.70
- David Lipsky 26.85
- Harris English 26.50
- Pierceson Coody 26.39
- Shane Lowry 26.39
- Ryan Gerard 26.30
- Max Greyserman 26.26
- Jake Knapp 26.26
- Sudharshan Yellamaraju 25.72
- Ryan Fox 25.69
- Harry Hall 25.51
- Ricky Castillo 25.40
- Wyndham Clark 25.21
- Rickie Fowler 25.00
- Chris Gotterup 24.79
- Jimmy Stanger 24.44
- Sam Burns 24.38
- Tom Hoge 24.31
- Adam Scott 24.31
- Patrick Rodgers 24.23
- Keith Mitchell 24.13
Over the last five years at Memorial Park, it has been a bit of a putting contest.
Here are the numbers with the flatstick for the recent winners here:
2025: MW Lee +8.72 (2nd)
2024: Jaeger +6.40 (3rd)
2022: Finau +7.92 (2nd)
2021: Kokrak +8.68 (3rd)
2020: Ortiz +6.12 (5th)
Strokes Gained: Putting – Average Per Round (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Jake Knapp 1.291
- Vince Whaley 1.157
- Matthieu Pavon 0.979
- David Lipsky 0.881
- Karl Vilips 0.854
- Kris Ventura 0.805
- Rickie Fowler 0.760
- Rasmus Højgaard 0.639
- Chad Ramey 0.619
- Sam Burns 0.609
- Sam Ryder 0.607
- Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.563
- Harris English 0.562
- Harry Hall 0.550
- Scottie Scheffler 0.547
- SH Kim 0.534
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.526
- Chandler Phillips 0.509
- Nicolai Højgaard 0.506
The greens are large at Memorial Park and will be fast, so players will have to avoid three-putts.
Three-Putt Percentage (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Jimmy Stanger 0.74% (percentage of time player three-putts or worse)
- Austin Eckroat 0.79
- Karl Vilips 0.93
- Jake Knapp 1.01
- Nico Echavarria 1.11
- Mackenzie Hughes 1.11
- Rickie Fowler 1.39
- J.T. Poston 1.39
- Ryan Gerard 1.48
- Chad Ramey 1.48
- Stephan Jaeger 1.56
- Ricky Castillo 1.59
- Eric Cole 1.62
- Chandler Phillips 1.62
- Sudarshan Yellamaraju 1.65
- Ryan Fox 1.74
- Shane Lowry 1.74
- Sam Ryder 1.74
- Patton Kizzire 1.75
Selections
Jake Knapp +2250 DraftKings
Knapp withdrew from the Arnold Palmer Invitational three weeks ago and then missed the cut at THE PLAYERS the following week. However, he also had a run of top eight finishes prior to a struggling Florida swing:
5th -Farmers Insurance Open
8th – WM Phoenix Open
8th – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
6th – The Genesis Invitational
Plus, he began 2026 with an 11th at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Knapp has had plenty of success at driver-heavy tracks such as Torrey Pines (3rd 2024, 5th 2026); Vidanta (1st Mexico Open 2024) and Detroit Golf Club (4th 2025).
Nicolai Højgaard 33/1 BetRivers
Like Fitzpatrick, Nicolai is another player we have been chasing this spring. Only this week, I am going to stay onboard. He finished just T55 at the Valspar Championship last week, but that was only his second finish outside the top 30 in his last 11 events dating back to October. Nicolai not only has the distance and approach play, but also the putting as well, as he has been gaining over a half stroke per round with the flatstick over the last 24 rounds.
Marco Penge 33/1 DraftKings
Penge is a PGA TOUR rookie this season, but the Englishman became well-known in the golf world last year, winning three events on the DP World Tour in just a 16-tournament span, plus finishing runner-up in the Scottish Open last summer against a world-class field. The Englishman finished 4th last week at the Valspar while ranking 1st in the field for Ball Striking, 2nd for Total Driving, and 4th for Greens In Regulation. He currently leads the PGA TOUR for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and is 7th for Driving Distance.
Michael Thorbjornsen 33/1 DraftKings
Last year, Min Woo Lee was the 36-hole leader at THE PLAYERS before weekend rounds of 78 and 73 saw him finish 20th. 2 weeks later he arrived here at Houston and won on the PGA TOUR for the first time. This year, Thorbjornsen arrives having been in the Sunday final pairing at THE PLAYERS two weeks ago before shooting 77 to finish 22nd. So perhaps history can repeat itself. He ranks 2nd this season on the PGA TOUR for Total Driving and was 2nd in the field here last year in Houston for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee.
Ryan Fox 70/1 DraftKings
Fox withdrew from THE PLAYERS a couple weeks ago to have surgery for kidney stones. The Kiwi has finished top 25 in his last four events, including a 7th at the Genesis Invitational. He was in the final pairing last year before finishing T-15, but since then, he has gone on to win twice on the PGA TOUR at the Myrtle Beach Classic and RBC Canadian Open. Ranking 3rd in this field for Proximity 200+ Yards and 15th for Driving Distance, Fox fits the profile of previous winners here in Houston.
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 94/1 DraftKings
The 24-year-old Canadian PGA TOUR rookie taught himself how to play golf by watching YouTube videos. He proved to be a good teacher two weeks ago as he finished 5th at THE PLAYERS. Yellamaraju ranks 1st for Total Driving, 15th for Driving Distance, and 25th for Driving Accuracy in his rookie season on TOUR. He also ranks 7th for Proximity to the Hole, 2nd for Proximity 200+ Yards, and 16th for both Birdie Average and SG Putting.
Michael Brennan 100/1 BetRivers
The hype on Brennan has slightly died down a bit from 2025, when he won three titles on PGA TOUR Americas and then received a sponsor’s exemption last fall to the Bank of Utah Championship and won on his PGA TOUR debut to earn full-time status on the big tour. He ranks 3rd for Driving Distance, 6th for Total Driving, and 6th for SG Off the Tee on the PGA TOUR, and this is a course where the driver is the biggest weapon. Brennan also ranks 10th for Proximity to the Hole and 13th for Proximity from 200+ Yards.
Placement markets, matchups, and/or other futures will be available on Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks.
