The American Express Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:
The 2026 PGA TOUR season opened with Chris Gotterup winning on TOUR for the third straight year. Gotterup, a pre-tournament price of 50/1, shot 64 on Sunday and emerged with a two-shot victory (16-under) at a windy Sony Open in Honolulu last weekend. Ryan Gerard finished two back at 14-under for his best career PGA TOUR finish. Patrick Rodgers was solo 3rd at 13-under. Rounding out the Top 5 were Robert MacIntyre and Jacob Bridgeman at 12-under for T4 finishes. 54-hole leader Davis Riley ended up 5 back, finishing T6.
This week, the TOUR heads to the Coachella Valley desert in Southern California for The American Express.
World No.1 Scottie Scheffler (3/1) makes his 2026 debut this week.
While this is a high-quality field and arguably one of the better ones in this event’s long history that includes 11 of the OWGR Top 25 players, there is a big drop-off on the odds board from Scheffler.
Ben Griffin (22/1), Ludvig Åberg (25/1), Robert MacIntyre (25/1), Russell Henley (25/1), Patrick Cantlay (30/1), who lost to Si Woo Kim (35/1) by one stroke in the 2021 AMEX, Sam Burns (35/1), and Matt Fitzpatrick (40/1) are the next tier on the odds board as Scheffler remains on a tier of his own.
Defending event champion Sepp Straka, who we nailed as a 60/1 winner in this column for last year’s event, is priced at 45/1.
The Event
The American Express has had many different names since its inception in 1960, when it was established as the Palm Springs Classic. Most remember and still refer to this event as the “Bob Hope” since it bore the entertainer’s name from 1965-2011. Hope served as the event’s host and chairman of the board for many years, and the event still carried his name until 2011, eight years after his passing at the age of 100. The tournament’s winners are a “who’s who” of golfing legends, including Arnold Palmer (1960, 1962, 1968, 1971, 1973), Jack Nicklaus (1963), Billy Casper (1965, 1969), Johnny Miller (1975, 1976) and Phil Mickelson (2002, 2004). In 1995, history was made as three U.S. Presidents (Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush, and Gerald Ford) teed it up in the pro-am with host Bob Hope and then-defending champion Scott Hoch. Until 2012, the event was played over five days on four different courses before switching to a four-day event using three different courses. The pro-am also returned two years ago, along with the three-course rotation, which means the cut comes after 54 holes, with the low 65 players and ties making Sunday.
The Field
The Courses
This year’s American Express will be played on a three-course rotation: The PGA West Stadium Course, The PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club.
PGA West Stadium Course is played by each player in one of the three early rounds and then for Sunday. The track was designed by the legendary Pete Dye in 1986. It is a Par 72 of 7,210 yards (10th shortest on TOUR) and usually plays between 1-2 strokes harder than the Nicklaus and La Quinta courses. Water is in play on seven holes, and there are 90 bunkers (6th most on TOUR). Bermudagrass with Ryegrass comprise the fairways and rough, while Poa overseed is the surface for the greens. The greens, at an average of 7,000 square feet (9th-largest on TOUR), will run at an average speed of 11.5 on the stimpmeter.
The Stadium Course played an average round of 71.35, ranking 19th out of 50 for course difficulty last year on TOUR.
Pete Dye courses are prevalent throughout the PGA Tour. Here are some other Dye designs on the schedule:
Austin Country Club – WGC Dell Matchplay since 2016
Crooked Stick – 2012 and 2016 BMW Championship
Harbour Town – RBC Heritage
Ocean Course – Kiawah Island – 2012 and 2021 PGA Championship
TPC River Highlands – The Travelers
TPC Louisiana – Zurich Classic of New Orleans
TPC Sawgrass – The Players Championship
Whistling Straits – 2010 and 2015 PGA Championship
TPC Sawgrass is arguably the most comparable of the Dye designs. Other similar courses that are not Dye designs include TPC Summerlin, TPC Scottsdale, Silverado, Torrey Pines North and Narashino.
The PGA West Tournament Course was designed by Jack Nicklaus in 1987. It plays as a Par 72 of 7,147 yards (7th-shortest on TOUR). Water is in play on six holes, and there are 78 total bunkers on the Nicklaus layout. The fairways and rough are overseeded Ryegrass as the Bermudagrass is dormant. The greens, which will roll at an average of 11.5 on the stimpmeter, are the slowest of the three courses and are also overseeded with Poa trivialis. The greens are 5,500 square feet on average.
The Nicklaus Tournament Course ranked as the third-easiest course on TOUR last year with an average round score of 68.25.
There are also plenty of Nicklaus designs on the PGA Tour schedule if looking for any designer correlation possibilities:
Annandale Golf Club – Sanderson Farms Championship through 2013
Glen Abbey – RBC Canadian Open – 2008, 2013, 2015-2018
Montreux Golf & Country Club – Barracuda Championship through 2019
Muirfield Village – Memorial Tournament
Old Greenwood GC – Barracuda Championship 2020
PGA National – Honda Classic
PGA West – Nicklaus Private – Humana Challenge through 2015
Sherwood Country Club – Thousand Oaks – World Challenge through 2013
Valhalla Golf Club – 2014 PGA Championship
Sherwood is the most comparable Nicklaus design. Other non-Nicklaus designs that are comparable to the Tournament Course include TPC Summerlin, TPC Scottsdale, and Summit Club.
La Quinta Country Club is the third of three courses at The American Express. It is a private course designed by Lawrence Hughes and opened in 1959 and re-designed by Damian Pascuzzo in 1999. La Quinta is also a Par 72 and the shortest (3rd shortest on TOUR) of the three courses at 7,060 yards. Water is in play on seven holes, and there are 82 bunkers. Like the other courses in the rotation, Bermuda is the primary surface for this course; however, it is dormant and but overseeded with Ryegrass in the fairways and rough and Poa trivialis on the greens. The greens, which roll 12 on the stimpmeter, are the 4th-smallest on TOUR at an average of 4,773 square feet.
Last year, La Quinta played the fourth-easiest course on the PGA TOUR with a round average of 68.40.
Sherwood, Pebble Beach, and TPC Summerlin are comparable designs to La Quinta.
The American Express Recent History/Winners
2025: Sepp Straka (-25/263); 50/1
2024: Nick Dunlap (-29/259): 300/1
2023: Jon Rahm (-27/261); 13/2
2022: Hudson Swafford (-23/265); 150/1
2021: Si Woo Kim (-23/265); 55/1
2020: Andrew Landry (-26/262); 200/1
2019: Adam Long (-26/262); 600/1
2018: Jon Rahm (-22/266); 10/1*
2017: Hudson Swafford (-20/268); 66/1
2016: Jason Dufner (-25/263); 40/1**
2015: Bill Haas (-22/266); 30/1
2014: Patrick Reed (-28/260); 135/1
2013: Brian Gay (-25/263); 80/1***
2012: Mark Wilson (-24/264); 125/1
Playoff win over Andrew Landry – *
Playoff win over David Lingmerth – **
Playoff win over Charles Howell III and David Lingmerth – ***
Trends & Angles
Here are some winning trends for The American Express:
- 11 of the last 16 winners had odds of 55/1 or higher.
- 15 of the last 18 winners played in one previous American Express, and 13 of the last 17 had played the event at least twice.
- 13 of the last 18 winners played in the Sony Open before the American Express.
- 15 of the last 19 winners were aged 32 or younger.
Statistical Analysis
With only one tournament having been played thus far in the 2026 calendar year, we will use last season’s data.
Seven of the last nine winners at The American Express ranked 9th or better for Strokes Gained: Approach (PGA West Stadium Course only) during their respective winning weeks.
Strokes Gained: Approach – Average Per Round (2025 PGA TOUR season)
- Scottie Scheffler 1.291
- Sepp Straka 0.677
- Rico Hoey 0.667
- Russell Henley 0.577
- Akshay Bhatia 0.575
- Patrick Cantlay 0.564
- Doug Ghim 0.531
- Sami Valimaki 0.516
- Ben Griffin 0.466
- Lee Hodges 0.465
- Ryan Gerard 0.457
- Daniel Berger 0.456
- Nick Taylor 0.427
- Si Woo Kim 0.425
- Kurt Kitayama 0.389
The three courses in the rotation this week at The American Express are typically three of the easier courses on the PGA TOUR. Players may have to post 25-under just to have a chance to win this thing. You have to make tons of birdies and/or eagles.
Birdie Or Better Percentage (2025 PGA TOUR season)
- Scottie Scheffler 27.08%
- Harry Hall 25.83
- Pierceson Coody 25.53
- Keith Mitchell 25.33
- Michael Thorbjornsen 25.23
- Kurt Kitayama 25.00
- Jesper Svensson 24.84
- Kevin Yu 24.55
- Rico Hoey 24.50
- Sepp Straka 24.42
- Akshay Bhatia 24.33
- Danny Walker 24.32
- Matti Schmid 24.24
- Sam Burns 24.17
- Alex Smalley 24.03
Three of the Par 5s on the Nicklaus Tournament course are under 550 yards and all four at LaQuinta are just as short. Making pars on Par 5s here are like making bogeys.
Par 5 Scoring Average (2025 PGA TOUR season)
- Pierceson Coody 4.42
- Scottie Scheffler 4.44
- Kurt Kitayama 4.48
- Luke Clanton 4.49
- Jesper Svensson 4.49
- Sepp Straka 4.50
- Michael Thorbjornsen 4.50
- Vince Whaley 4.50
- Rico Hoey 4.51
- Keith Mitchell 4.51
- Ben Griffin 4.52
- Harry Hall 4.52
- Taylor Moore 4.52
- Taylor Pendrith 4.52
- Adam Scott 4.52
The greens this week are Bermuda, but it is dormant so Poa Trivialis overseed make up the greens, but it is not the typical bumpy west coast Poa that players will see at Torrey Pines next week. So, it is more prudent to just examine putting stats from a holistic perspective in lieu of specifying a particular surface.
Strokes Gained Putting – Average Per Round (2025 PGA TOUR season)
- Sam Burns 0.983
- Harry Hall 0.881
- Denny McCarthy 0.679
- Nico Echavarria 0.666
- Sam Ryder 0.626
- Sami Valimaki 0.548
- Brandt Snedeker 0.531
- Frankie Capan III 0.488
- Christian Bezuidenhout 0.458
- Zach Johnson 0.446
- Andrew Putnam 0.439
- Matt McCarty 0.435
- Harris English 0.418
- Ben Griffin 0.407
- Jacob Bridgeman 0.388
- Scottie Scheffler 0.382
- Matt Kuchar 0.370
Selections
Russell Henley 25/1 DraftKings
Henley was the favorite at the Sony Open last weekend but finished just T19. However, he rated 5th in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach and off the tee is typically his strength (9th on the PGA TOUR last season for Good Drive Percentage) but lost there last week in Honolulu.
Daniel Berger 60/1 DraftKings
Berger opened his 2026 campaign with a T6 finish at the Sony Open last weekend which saw him rank 13th for SG: Approach and 18th in SG: Putting. He got close to getting back in the winner’s circle for the first time since February 2021 twice last season with a runner-up in Phoenix and a 3rd in Hilton Head before he cooled off in the second half, and Berger has been typically a quick starter.
Ryan Gerard 66/1 BetRivers
In mid-December, Ryan Gerard flew across two oceans to play in the Mauritius Open on the DP World Tour. He was 57th in the OWGR and needed to get into the Top 50 in order to lock in a Masters invitation. Needing to finish in the Top 4 of the event, he finished runner-up. Last week, he kicked off his season with a runner-up in the Sony Open and ranked 4th in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach.
Pierceson Coody 90/1 Circa Sports
Coody finished T13 last week at the Sony Open and carded a 6-under 64 on Sunday tying for the second lowest round of the day. He is a proven birdie-maker (3rd in field for Birdie or Better Percentage last season) and ranked 13th last year on the PGA TOUR for Total Strokes Gained.
Alex Smalley 100/1 DraftKings
Smalley has finished no worse than 25th in any of his four starts here at the AMEX. He had four Top 10 finishes last season.
Andrew Novak 150/1 Caesars Sportsbook
It is difficult to find recent form with players playing sporadically, if at all, the final two months of the calendar year, but Novak stayed relatively active. In his last two outings, Novak has finished 7th at the RSM Classic, shooting opening rounds of 61 and 63 to be the co-leader at Sea Island. From there, in mid-December, he played the Grant Thornton Invitational at the Tiburon Golf Club, Florida, where he partnered Lauren Coughlin to the event.
Seamus Power 170/1 DraftKings
Power finished T7 in the season finale at the RSM Classic. He was just T31 last week, but ranked Top 10 in the field for SG: Approach. The Irishman has not played here in three years, but has two Top 15 finishes here in four appearances.
Placement market and/or matchup wagers will be posted on Wednesday at VSiN.com.
