The Cognizant Classic Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:
Jacob Bridgeman began his 2026 season with four Top 20 finishes, including two Top 10s. He was certainly closing in on his first PGA TOUR victory, but closed the deal last weekend at Riviera against a world-class field at The Genesis Invitational at an 80/1 price.
Bridgeman, who paced the field for Strokes Gained: Putting and Strokes Gained: Approach, was the 54-hole leader by six strokes and at one point led by seven in Sunday’s final round before closing out a one-shot victory over Kurt Kitayama and Rory McIlroy. McIlroy led the field for Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and was 2nd for Strokes Gained: Approach but ranked 40th and 45th out of 51 players for Strokes Gained: Putting for his Saturday and Sunday rounds and forced this column to settle for a third runner-up finish of the season.
Adam Scott, Aldrich Potgieter, and Jake Knapp were 4th, 5th, and 6th, respectively. Rounding out the top 10 by tying for 7th were Ryan Fox, Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Young, and Xander Schauffele.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler got off to another slow start, shooting 3-over 74 on Thursday, but rallied to make the cut and shot 66-65 over the weekend to finish T-12.
The West Coast Swing has now concluded, and the PGA TOUR heads across the country to start the Florida Swing at the Cognizant Classic.
The Cognizant Classic, played at PGA National in Palm Beach, is in a tough scheduling spot sandwiched between the Genesis Invitational and the Arnold Palmer Invitational and PLAYERS Championship over the next two weeks. The field was already down but took a couple blows as Bridgeman, the Genesis winner and the runner-up in this event last year, and Ben Griffin, the top two players on the odds board, withdrew from the field on Monday morning, as did Adam Scott.
Shane Lowry (16/1) is a regular Cognizant participant and has finished inside the top 5 here in three of the last four years.
Ryan Gerard (18/1) made his PGA TOUR debut here in 2023 and finished 4th.
The brothers Højgaard, Nicolai (20/1) and Rasmus (25/1), both seek their maiden PGA TOUR victories. Nicolai has already finished 3rd (Phoenix) and 4th (Dubai) to start 2026.
Michael Thorbjornsen (25/1) is another player seemingly closing in on his first win, and he was five top 5 finishes, including a T-3 in Phoenix three weeks ago, since turning professional last summer.
Brooks Koepka (30/1), the 2019 runner-up here, is making his third start since returning to the PGA TOUR but is currently losing 1.18 strokes per round with the putter. Koepka lost that 2019 Cognizant event to Keith Mitchell (30/1).
Daniel Berger (33/1) was a late addition to the field last Friday and has three top 4 finishes here, including a playoff loss in 2015.
Aaron Rai (35/1) was high in contention last Sunday at Riviera and was in the second-to-last group before shooting a 5-over 76 on Sunday and plummeting to T28.
Last year’s Cognizant winner Joe Highsmith is a long shot to repeat at 250/1 as he has one Top 10 in the 29 starts since he won here at PGA National last year.
Other returning Cognizant Classic winners include Austin Eckroat (66/1) – 2024, Chris Kirk (50/1) – 2023, Camilo Villegas (500/1) – 2010, and Matt Kuchar (100/1) – 2002.
The Event
The Cognizant Classic was founded in 1972 as Jackie Gleason’s Inverrary Classic and played at the Inverrary Country Club in Lauderhill, Florida, where Gleason had his retirement home on the course. The Honeymooners star served as the tournament’s host through 1980. American Honda Motor Company (Honda) took over the tournament sponsorship in 1982 and held it until 2024. Honda’s 42 years is the longest uninterrupted title sponsor run ever on the PGA TOUR.
In 2024, Cognizant, a multinational IT services and consulting company headquartered in Teaneck, New Jersey, took over as title sponsor.
The tournament has been played at various venues around South Florida until moving to its current home at PGA National Resort & Spa in 2007. Since moving to PGA National, the Honda Classic has been able to attract more top players on a more consistent basis. IMG has served as the event’s organizer since 2013 and the tournament’s main charitable beneficiary is the Nicklaus Children’s Health Care Foundation, chaired by Jack Nicklaus’s wife, Barbara. Multiple winners of the event include Jack Nicklaus (1977, 1978), Johnny Miller (1980, 1983), Mark Calcavecchia (1987, 1998) and Padraig Harrington (2005, 2015). A host of major champions have also emerged victorious in this event, including Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Adam Scott, Ernie Els, Vijay Singh, Mark O’Meara, Nick Price, Fred Couples, Hale Irwin, Curtis Strange, Tom Kite, Larry Nelson and Lee Trevino.
The Field
With the Monday W/Ds from Griffin and Bridgeman, there are zero OWGR top 25 players in this week’s Cognizant Classic field and only 8 of the top 50 are part of this week’s 123-player field.
The Course
Just a few miles off Florida’s Atlantic coast, sitting halfway between Jupiter and West Palm Beach sits the Champion course at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, FL. The Champions Course at PGA National Resort & Spa was originally designed by Tom and George Fazio in 1981 but has undergone several toughening renovations, most recently in 2018 by Jack Nicklaus. The course has also hosted the 1983 Ryder Cup, the 1987 PGA Championship, and the Senior PGA Championship from 1982-2000.
PGA National converted to a Par 71 from a Par 70 for this event beginning in 2024. The track has played easier over the last two years with the extra Par 5 and softer greens.
The course is a 7,223-yard layout with water (26 hazards in all) in play on 15 of 18 holes (most on the PGA TOUR). Eight of those 15 holes have carries over water for approach shots. PGA National is susceptible to wind gusts that will push balls into the water. The water hazards also force players to lay up more often than not, so you will not see many drivers off the tee. PGA National has the most water balls (over 6,000) of any course on the PGA TOUR over the last 20 years.
The overseeded rye rough is not all that penal (3″), but the Bermuda fairways are narrowed from last year at an average fairway width of 28 yards. The TifEagle Bermuda greens are also contoured, elevated, large (7,000 average sq ft – 10th largest on TOUR), but only slightly above average speed (12 stimpmeter).
Here is the difficulty rank for PGA National in recent years:
| Year | Scoring Average | Difficulty Rank on PGA TOUR |
| 2025 | 69.26 (-1.74) | 36th |
| 2024 | 70.10 (-0.90) | 20th |
| 2023 | 70.36 (-0.64) | 13th |
| 2022 | 71.34 (+1.34) | 7th |
| 2021 | 71.10 (+1.10) | 6th |
| 2020 | 71.90 (+1.90) | 3rd |
| 2019 | 71.02 (+1.02) | 5th |
| 2018 | 72.30 (+2.30) | 2nd |
| 2017 | 70.56 (+0.56) | 16th |
| 2016 | 71.77 (+1.77) | 5th |
| 2015 | 71.83 (+1.83) | 4th |
Before the 2024 change to a Par 71, PGA National had been the toughest non-major course on the PGA TOUR in six of the previous 10 seasons. Last year, 38 players shot double digits or better under par. From 2006-2023, only 11 players total shot 10-under or better.
PGA National is most notable for what is known as the “Bear Trap.” The arduous stretch from holes 15, 16 and 17 is one of the most difficult three-hole stretches on the PGA TOUR.
Water looms throughout the Bear Trap, which includes two 175-yard Par 3s and a tight dogleg Par 4 just over 430 yards. It always makes for a climactic finish with chasers taking aggressive lines at these tight pin locations over the water, while leaders have done their best to stay dry and escape into the Par 5 18th at even par.
Potential correlated courses here include Bay Hill, Innisbrook (Copperhead), Waialae (short Par 70 plus multiple winners on both tracks), Concession (Nicklaus design), Quail Hollow (Fazio design), TPC Sawgrass, TPC Southwind, and Colonial (short Par 70).
Golf Stay and Plays is a golf concierge site that books golfing vacations, and they provide a video flyover of the PGA National Resort and Spa: Champion Course.
Weather
Last year, the greens were extremely soft due to substantial rainfall (almost 9 inches) in South Florida in the two months leading up to the event. This year has been dry, so expect the course to be firmer and faster than last year.
Cognizant Classic Recent History/Winners
2025: Joe Highsmith (-19/265); 120/1
2024: Austin Eckroat (-17/267); 110/1
2023: Chris Kirk (-14/266); 25/1*
2022: Sepp Straka (-10/270); 125/1
2021: Matt Jones (-12/268); 70/1
2020: Sungjae Im (-6/274); 35/1
2019: Keith Mitchell (-9/271); 300/1
2018: Justin Thomas (-8/272); 12/1**
2017: Rickie Fowler (-12/268); 16/1
2016: Adam Scott (-9/271); 20/1
2015: Padraig Harrington (-6/274); 400/1***
2014: Russell Henley (-8/272); 300/1****
2013: Michael Thompson (-9/271); 300/1
2012: Rory McIlroy (-12/268); 9/1
2011: Rory Sabbatini (-9/271); 80/1
2010: Camilo Villegas (-13/267); 30/1
Playoff win over Eric Cole – *
Playoff win over Luke List – **
Playoff win over Daniel Berger – ***
Playoff win over Rory McIlroy, Russell Knox, Ryan Palmer – ****
Cognizant Classic Tournament Trends
The recent course and schedule changes make these trends at least somewhat obsolete, but still worth examining in context.
- 12 of the past 15 winners of the Cognizant Classic have previously made the cut at least once in this event.
- Of the 19 course winners since this event moved to PGA National, 10 of them have been international players.
- Of the 19 course winners since this event moved to PGA National, 6 of them have been major champions.
Statistical Analysis
With a lack of rain, the greens will be firmer and may not hold some approach shots. In five of the last seven years here, the tournament winner has rated 8th or better in the field during his winning week for Strokes Gained: Approach.
Strokes Gained: Approach – Average Per Round (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Austin Smotherman 1.302
- Sam Ryder 1.094
- Ryan Gerard 0.894
- David Lipsky 0.848
- John Keefer 0.838
- David Ford 0.794
- Chris Kirk 0.766
- Frankie Capan III 0.761
- Nicolai Højgaard 0.731
- Marty Dou 0.682
- Shane Lowry 0.678
- Davis Thompson 0.673
- Brooks Koepka 0.661
- Jesper Svensson 0.622
- Haotong Li 0.619
- Will Zalatoris 0.602
- Camilo Villegas 0.588
- Jackson Suber 0.542
- Luke Clanton 0.508
- Daniel Berger 0.455
- Jordan Smith 0.455
- Adam Svensson 0.454
The many doglegs and water hazards force players to hit less than driver off the tee, which leads to one of the shortest average driving distances at around 280 yards and driving accuracy that only averages just over 60%. PGA National is one of the tougher courses on TOUR to gain strokes off the tee.
Strokes Gained Off-The-Tee – Average Per Round (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Nicolai Højgaard 0.874
- Isaiah Salinda 0.768
- Jesper Svensson 0.761
- Haotong Li 0.733
- John Keefer 0.704
- Taylor Moore 0.670
- Joel Dahmen 0.662
- Gary Woodland 0.662
- Keith Mitchell 0.658
- Michael Brennan 0.618
- Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 0.605
- Neal Shipley 0.602
- David Ford 0.578
- Rasmus Højgaard 0.564
- Doug Ghim 0.542
- Will Zalatoris 0.508
- Gordon Sargent 0.446
- Jordan Smith 0.407
Players will miss the greens around 40% of the time on average here at PGA National and will have to scramble to save pars and even bogeys, particularly from the short grasses.
Scrambling (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Taylor Moore 76.60%
- Kris Ventura 72.73
- Nicolai Højgaard 72.22
- Will Zalatoris 70.97
- Justin Lower 69.57
- Joel Dahmen 69.39
- Karl Vilips 68.85
- Haotong Li 68.75
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 68.63
- Matt Kuchar 68.57
- Kevin Roy 68.24
- Seamus Power 68.18
- David Ford 68.09
- Brandt Snedeker 67.74
- Ryan Gerard 67.02
- S.H. Kim 67.02
- Shane Lowry 66.67
- Chad Ramey 66.33
- Sami Valimaki 65.98
Strokes Gained: Around The Green – Average Per Round (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Lanto Griffin 1.534
- Brandt Snedeker 0.867
- Brooks Koepka 0.666
- Taylor Moore 0.652
- Matt Kuchar 0.539
- Mackenzie Hughes 0.537
- Kevin Roy 0.525
- Beau Hossler 0.494
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.445
- Camilo Villegas 0.402
- Stephan Jaeger 0.363
- Danny Walker 0.363
- Charley Hoffman 0.359
- Patton Kizzire 0.352
- Seamus Power 0.348
- Joel Dahmen 0.333
- Doug Ghim 0.332
- Pontus Nyholm 0.309
Bogeys and/or worse lurk all over the course and not just at “The Bear Trap”. ‘
Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Nicolai Højgaard 6.94% (percentage of time player makes bogey)
- Taylor Moore 8.33
- Kris Ventura 9.52
- Ryan Gerard 9.72
- Jesper Svensson 10
- Will Zalatoris 10.19
- Lee Hodges 10.49
- David Ford 10.56
- Karl Vilips 10.56
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 11.11
- Joel Dahmen 11.11
- Shane Lowry 11.11
- Daniel Berger 11.42
- Seamus Power 11.57
- Dylan Wu 11.67
- John Parry 11.81
- Haotong Li 11.90
- Max McGreevy 11.94
- Matt Kuchar 12.04
- Andrew Putnam 12.04
A plurality of the approach shots will come from 150 to 200 yards out.
Average Proximity to the Hole – 150 to 175 Yards (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Jesper Svensson 16′ 3″
- Kevin Streelman 19′ 9″
- Jackson Suber 19′ 10″
- Austin Eckroat 20′ 3″
- Ryan Gerard 20′ 9″
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart 21′ 1″
- Kris Ventura 21′ 6″
- Matt Wallace 21′ 7″
- Emiliano Grillo 22′ 8″
- David Ford 23′ 0″
- Aaron Rai 23′ 2″
- Michael Thorbjornsen 23′ 4″
- Will Zalatoris 23′ 5″
- Brooks Koepka 23′ 6″
- Sam Ryder 23′ 6″
- Jeffrey Kang 24′ 0″
- Chandler Phillips 24′ 0″
- John Parry 24′ 4″
- Charley Hoffman 24′ 10″
- Nick Dunlap 25′ 0″
- Brice Garnett 25′ 0″
Average Proximity to the Hole – 175 to 200 Yards (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Patrick Fishburn 15′ 9″
- Justin Lower 22′ 10″
- Camilo Villegas 23′ 2″
- David Lipsky 24′ 4″
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart 25′ 9″
- Luke Clanton 25′ 11″
- Davis Thompson 26′ 9″
- Eric Cole 27′ 1″
- Lanto Griffin 27′ 7″
- AJ Ewart 27′ 8″
- Shane Lowry 27′ 9″
- Keith Mitchell 27′ 11″
- Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 28′ 1″
- Nick Dunlap 28′ 3″
- Charley Hoffman 28′ 10″
- Sami Valimaki 29′ 1″
- Aaron Rai 29′ 5″
- Ryan Gerard 29′ 7″
- David Ford 29′ 8″
- Mackenzie Hughes 30′ 0″
The Par 4s have historically been difficult on this course but have played easier in the last two years.
Par 4 Birdie Or Better Percentage (2026 PGA TOUR season)
- Andrew Putnam 30%
- David Lipsky 28.75
- Sam Ryder 28.25
- Davis Riley 28.15
- Danny Walker 24.14
- Frankie Capan III 24
- Ricky Castillo 23.44
- Matthieu Pavon 23.33
- Will Zalatoris 23.33
- Kris Ventura 22.86
- Nicolai Højgaard 22.62
- Shane Lowry 22.62
- Dan Brown 22.14
- John Keefer 22.09
- Lanto Griffin 22
- Haotong Li 22
- Steven Fisk 21.93
- Chandler Phillips 21.71
- Jordan Smith 21.71
- Ryan Gerard 21.70
- Alex Smalley 21.35
- David Ford 21.30
After spending most of the last several weeks on Poa Annua, players go back to Florida where the Bermudagrass is more prevalent on the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting – Bermuda Greens – Average Per Round (Last 24 Rounds)
- Nico Echavarria 0.78
- Matti Schmid 0.76
- Davis Riley 0.76
- Gary Woodland 0.73
- Rasmus Højgaard 0.71
- Andrew Putnam 0.71
- Chandler Phillips 0.70
- S.H. Kim 0.70
- Ben Griffin 0.60
- Aaron Wise 0.51
- Vince Whaley 0.47
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.46
- Mac Meissner 0.45
- Sam Ryder 0.45
- Matthieu Pavon 0.41
- Chris Kirk 0.40
- Justin Lower 0.37
- Stephan Jaeger 0.30
- Nicolai Højgaard 0.29
- Gordon Sargent 0.29 (14 Rounds)
Selections
Nicolai Højgaard 22/1 DraftKings
Nicolai currently leads the PGA TOUR for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee as well as Bogey and 3-Putt Avoidance. Thus far in 2026, he has finished 3rd in Phoenix and 4th in Dubai. Furthermore, he has finished 11th or better in four of his last six worldwide events. Currently ranked No. 55 in the OWGR, Nicolai has about a month to get into the top 50 in order to receive an invitation for the Masters. He is also 2nd in the Aon Swing 5 to earn a spot in next week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, so he has much to play for this week in addition to trying to earn his first PGA TOUR victory on a course where he finished a respectable 18th last year.
Daniel Berger 40/1 Circa Sports
Berger was a late entry into the field when it was initially announced on Friday, which is a surprise considering he has been playing PGA National since his junior golf days and has had success here, going runner-up on debut in 2015 and having two other 4th-place finishes in 2020 and 2022. He did not play well at Pebble Beach and missed the cut at Riviera but did lead the field for Strokes Gained: Approach while finishing 16th in Phoenix and also posted a 6th earlier in the season at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Berger is also a former winner at Colonial and TPC Southwind (Memphis), which are strongly correlated courses to PGA National.
Will Zalatoris 42/1 Circa Sports
Zalatoris returned to action last December after missing seven months due to back surgery. He finished 15th at the Nedbank Golf Challenge in South Africa last December and began 2026 with an 18th at The American Express before a missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open. The schedule has been light for Zalatoris because he is not in the “signature events” due to missing most of last season, but he has begun the season striking the ball beautifully ranking top 16 in this field for both Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and Approach, and likely will prefer these Bermuda greens as opposed to the bumpy Poa on the West Coast Swing.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 47/1 DraftKings
Bezuidenhout has been on some sneaky good form with four top 10 finishes in his last eight events dating back to last fall. His missed cut at Phoenix ended a 12-event made cut streak dating back to last summer. The South African’s short game (putting, scrambling, around the green) numbers are always elite and typically what carries him since he does not gain a great deal off the tee. Approach numbers have shown some improvement in early 2026.
Johnny Keefer 52/1 DraftKings
With two victories on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2025, Keefer ended the season No. 1 on the Korn Ferry points list to earn his PGA TOUR card. He has made all four cuts thus far on the PGA TOUR in 2026 and currently ranks No. 1 for Greens In Regulation, 9th for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee, and 10th for Strokes Gained: Approach. Unfortunately, he ranks 137th for Strokes Gained: Putting. Perhaps going back to Florida will be what the doctor ordered and putting on Bermuda greens in lieu of Poa will be better for him to go along with his currently elite ball striking.
Jesper Svensson 90/1 BetRivers
The Swede lost his full PGA TOUR playing privileges, finishing 110th in the FedExCup last season (needed to be top 100), but does have conditional status, so this is a spot where he needs to take advantage in a weaker field. He currently rates 3rd on the PGA TOUR for Total Driving, 5th for Ball Striking, and 6th for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee. The 2024 DP World Tour Rookie of the Year also ranks top 10 for Driving Distance.
David Ford 115/1 DraftKings
Ford was the 2025 PGA TOUR University winner, securing himself a PGA TOUR card while playing at University of North Carolina. This is the same award that Michael Thorbjornsen (2024) and Ludvig Aberg (2023) had won to earn their PGA TOUR cards. Ford currently leads the PGA TOUR in Total Driving and ranks 7th for Ball Striking. The Tar Heel also has a victory here at PGA National winning the 2020 Rolex Tournament of Champions as an AJGA junior golfer. That same year he also won the Junior PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass.
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