The Genesis Invitational Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds

The Genesis Invitational Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:

Collin Morikawa drifted upward in price to above 60-1 largely because he hadn’t won in 28 months. That was our thought behind playing him at the WM Phoenix Open, but he finished well down the board (T-54). Last week, he was again priced at around 60-1, and unfortunately, we did not go back to him. Morikawa has remained one of the best iron players in the world, even during his winless streak, and he led the field for Strokes Gained: Approach in his victory — the seventh of his PGA Tour career — last weekend at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at 22 under.

Sepp Straka, one of our selections, rallied to finish T-2 with Min Woo Lee. Scottie Scheffler, even when not at his best, is never out of it and shot 9-under 63 to post the clubhouse lead at 20 under, where he was eventually matched by Tommy Fleetwood.

Our best chance at an outright winner was Akshay Bhatia, who held a five-stroke lead at one point on the front nine during Saturday’s third round at 21 under. However, he stalled and even after finishing as the 54-hole leader by two strokes, could not get going on Sunday and finished T-6 with Sam Burns. 

This week, the West Coast swing ends with another Signature Event at the Genesis Invitational, which returns to Riviera Country Club after being displaced last year because of the wildfires in the Los Angeles area.

Scheffler, a top-10 finisher here in 2022 and 2024, is the usual short favorite at 3-1.

Rory McIlroy (12-1) shot 8-under 64 on Sunday to finish T-14 in defense of his 2025 Pebble Beach title.

Tommy Fleetwood (18-1) was T-4 last week at Pebble Beach and finished in the top 10 here two years ago.

Xander Schauffele (20-1) finished fourth at Riviera two years ago.

Last time the Genesis was played at Riviera, Hideki Matsuyama (22-1) was the winner. 

Next on the board are Russell Henley (28-1) and Patrick Cantlay (29-1), who finished third and fourth the last two times at Riviera. 

Morikawa (32-1) hopes to go back-to-back on the West Coast Swing and be a two-time winner already in 2026, like Chris Gotterup (35-1).

Cameron Young (33-1), along with Morikawa, was the runner-up at Riviera in 2022. Sam Burns, Viktor Hovland, Si Woo Kim and Matt Fitzpatrick all follow in the 35-1 range. 

Ludvig Åberg (45-1) is technically the defending champion of the Genesis Invitational, although he won it at Torrey Pines and not Riviera. Adam Scott (50-1) and Max Homa (80-1) are both former winners at Riviera. 

The Event

This tournament was first established in 1926 as the Los Angeles Open and at the Los Angeles Country Club and has been played at a variety of courses in the greater Los Angeles area. Riviera Country Club, located in Pacific Palisades, has hosted the event 59 of 95 times and has been its permanent home essentially since 1984 (Valencia CC hosted in 1998). The event has been the site for several historical milestones in the game of golf. In 1938, the legendary Babe Zaharias became the first woman to play in a professional men’s golf event. In 1992, the Nissan LA Open was the site of Tiger Woods’ first PGA Tour event, which he played as a 16-year-old high school sophomore amateur.

Woods will serve as the tournament host as his Tiger Woods Foundation is the event organizer. This event has had many legendary winners, including Ben Hogan, Sam Snead, Tom Watson, Johnny Miller, Hale Irwin, Byron Nelson, Ben Crenshaw, Nick Faldo, Phil Mickelson, Fred Couples, Ernie Els and numerous other major champions.  

South Korea-based Hyundai Motor Group, through its Genesis Motors subsidiary, took over the tournament’s sponsorship in 2017. 

The Field

The Genesis Invitational will have a 72-player field this week that includes 41 of the OWGR top 50 players. 

The Course

Riviera Country Club is located in Santa Monica Canyon, just below the Santa Monica Mountains and one block south of the famous Sunset Boulevard. The course was designed by George C. Thomas and William Bell in 1926 with a Tom Fazio redesign in 2012. It is a classical parklands layout of 7,383 yards and plays as a par-71. Riviera has hosted three major championships: 1948 U.S. Open and the 1983 and 1995 PGA Championship. It also hosted the 1998 U.S. Senior Open along with the 2017 U.S. Amateur and will serve as the golfing venue for the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles in addition to the U.S. Women’s Open later this summer. The course has been nicknamed “Hogan’s Alley” for the legendary Ben Hogan, who won the L.A. Open three times (1942, 1947, 1948) and won the U.S. Open here.

The Kikuyugrass fairways (only Riviera and Torrey Pines feature both Kikuyu fairways and rough) are slightly tighter than average (33-yard average width) and the players will be hitting into bigger (7,500 square feet — fourth largest on the PGA Tour) and undulating Poa Annua greens that will roll a fast 12.5 on the stimpmeter and closer to 13 on Sunday. While the greens are large, they have the lowest mark (56.7%) on tour for Greens In Regulation.

The low GIR rate is largely due to Riviera having numerous dogleg holes where some players will be hitting blind approach shots. While the course has just 58 bunkers, they are prominently placed, so shaping shots and creativity are rewarded. There are also zero water hazards at Riviera.

Correlated courses that should indicate success here at Riviera include Augusta National, Torrey Pines South, PGA National, Quail Hollow, TPC Harding Park and the Copperhead course at Innisbrook. 

Golf Digest Senior Architecture Editor Emeritus Ron Whitten narrates a hole-by-hole flyover video.

Weather

It has been a wet winter in the Los Angeles area. More rain is expected early in the week and on Thursday afternoon. The course is not likely to firm up and should feature soft conditions. 

Genesis Invitational Recent History/Winners

2024: Hideki Matsuyama (-17/267); 80-1

2023: Jon Rahm (-17/267); 8-1

2022: Joaquin Niemann (-19/265); 50-1

2021: Max Homa (-12/272); 60-1*

2020: Adam Scott (-11/273); 33-1

2019: J.B. Holmes (-14/270); 150-1

2018: Bubba Watson (-12/272); 50-1

2017: Dustin Johnson (-17/267); 9-1

2016: Bubba Watson (-15/269); 25-1

2015: James Hahn (-6/278); 200-1**

2014: Bubba Watson (-15/269); 33-1

2013: John Merrick (-11/273); 250-1***

2012: Bill Haas (-7/277); 50-1****

2011: Aaron Baddeley (-12/272); 100-1

2010: Steve Stricker (-16/268); 16-1

Playoff win over Tony Finau – *

Playoff win over Paul Casey and Dustin Johnson – *

Playoff win over Charlie Beljan – **

Playoff win over Keegan Bradley and Phil Mickelson – ***

NOTE: Ludvig Åberg won the 2025 Genesis Invitational last year when it was held at Torrey Pines. 

​Trends and Angles​

Here are some Genesis Invitational recent winning trends (not including last year’s event held at Torrey Pines):

• 15 of the last 17 winners had at least three previous career wins.
• 17 of the last 19 winners had played in at least four previous Genesis Invitationals.
• 15 of the last 19 winners have finished 12th or better in a previous Genesis Invitational.
• 19 of the last 23 winners have finished 35th or better in their last start before the Genesis Invitational.
• 15 of the last 18 winners played at Pebble Beach or TPC Scottsdale in their previous start.
• 15 of the last 17 winners were age 29 or older. 

Statistical Analysis

Over the last nine tournaments here at Riviera, the winner ranked ninth in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach with Niemann and Rahm ranking No. 1 in the field for their respective victories in 2022 and 2023.

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (Last 50 rounds)

1. Si Woo Kim 1.067
2. Scottie Scheffler 1.008
3. Shane Lowry 0.923
4. Viktor Hovland 0.879
5. Rico Hoey 0.777
6. Matt Fitzpatrick 0.768
7. Kurt Kitayama 0.768
8. Collin Morikawa 0.763
9. Tommy Fleetwood 0.747
10. Sami Valimaki 0.697
11. Hideki Matsuyama 0.693
12. Russell Henley 0.683
13. Akshay Bhatia 0.680
14. Adam Scott 0.676
15. Aaron Rai 0.647
16. J.J. Spaun 0.594
17. Justin Rose 0.556
18. Pierceson Coody 0.535
19. Michael Kim 0.522
20. Ryan Gerard 0.516
21. Lucas Glover 0.503

For more recent form, here are the top Approach gainers for the current 2026 PGA Tour season.

1. Rory McIlroy 1.703 (4 measured rounds)
2. Si Woo Kim 1.431 (17)
3. Matt Fitzpatrick 1.263 (10)
4. Collin Morikawa 1.172 (10)
5. Hideki Matsuyama 1.155 (15)
6. Justin Rose 0.918 (8)
7. Viktor Hovland 0.917 (8)
8. Patrick Cantlay 0.886 (7)
9. Shane Lowry 0.814 (4)
10. Ryan Gerard 0.808 (13)
11. Sepp Straka 0.803 (9)
12. Russell Henley 0.796 (10)
13. Rickie Fowler 0.793 (10)
14. Tommy Fleetwood 0.773 (4)
15. Lucas Glover 0.759 (4)

With the expected soft conditions due to recent rain, distance off the tee has become even more important. 

Average Driving Distance (2026 PGA Tour season)

1. Aldrich Potgieter 327.1
2. Chris Gotterup 323.9
3. Min Woo Lee 323.0
4. Rory McIlroy 322.0
5. Jake Knapp 321.4
6. Xander Schauffele 320.5
7. Marco Penge 319.4
8. Ryan Fox 318.8
9. Pierceson Coody 318.3
10. Taylor Pendrith 316.8
11. Sam Burns 315.4
12. Maverick McNealy 315.0
13. Adam Scott 314.7
14. Max Greyserman 314.5
15. Scottie Scheffler 313.5
16. Max Homa 313.2
17. Rickie Fowler 312.7
18. Cameron Young 312.5
19. Sam Stevens 312.4
20. Kurt Kitayama 311.5

The Riviera fairways average 33 yards wide at the 300-yard landing zones, but they narrow considerably beyond that. The Driving Accuracy rate is around 51% (keep in mind the tour average is around 61%). Furthermore, the dogleg holes force players to choose either positioning or bombing off the tee. Players will find the rough here often. Good Drives Gained measures players hitting greens even when they miss fairways. 

Good Drives Gained (Last 50 rounds)

1. Aaron Rai 72.6
2. Russell Henley 64.5
3. Si Woo Kim 53.6
4. Tommy Fleetwood 49.1
5. Scottie Scheffler 48.9
6. Collin Morikawa 45.4
7. Corey Conners 43.6
8. Daniel Berger 41.9
9. Lucas Glover 38.1
10. Bud Cauley 33.7
11. J.T. Poston 31.5
12. Rico Hoey 31.3
13. Viktor Hovland 31.2
14. Sepp Straka 31
15. Shane Lowry 30.1
16. Harris English 29.6
17. Max McGreevy 28.1
18. Brian Harman 26.5
19. Brian Campbell 25.8
20. J.J. Spaun 25.3

The Greens In Regulation rate is only around 56%, so players will miss greens on a relatively routine basis and will have to scramble out of tricky Kikuyu rough, which can be unpredictable and tricky, and onto Poa greens that are faster and full of undulations. The bunkers at Riviera are also a bit tougher than the tour average. 

Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (Last 50 rounds)

1. Hideki Matsuyama 0.635
2. Jason Day 0.563
3. Keegan Bradley 0.542
4. Harry Hall 0.436
5. Patrick Rodgers 0.413
6. Min Woo Lee 0.412
7. Matt Fitzpatrick 0.403
8. Russell Henley 0.393
9. Ben Griffin 0.385
10. Wyndham Clark 0.311
11. Max Greyserman 0.297
12. Si Woo Kim 0.273
13. J.J. Spaun 0.271
14. Taylor Pendrith 0.264
15. Scottie Scheffler 0.261
16. Jacob Bridgeman 0.231
17. Tony Finau 0.230
18. Tommy Fleetwood 0.221
19. Alex Noren 0.210

For more recent form, here are the Around the Green numbers for the current 2026 PGA Tour season.

Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)

1. Tommy Fleetwood 1.109 (4 measured rounds)
2. Hideki Matsuyama 0.809 (15)
3. Sepp Straka 0.723 (9)
4. Ben Griffin 0.720 (14)
5. Chris Gotterup 0.664 (15)
6. Scottie Scheffler 0.645 (10)
7. Keegan Bradley 0.597 (9)
8. Sami Valimaki 0.565 (10)
9. Harry Hall 0.559 (12)
10. J.J. Spaun 0.529 (9)
11. Patrick Rodgers 0.461 (17)
12. Jason Day 0.450 (9)
13. Sahith Theegala 0.447 (17)
14. Ryo Hisatsune 0.414 (15)

Scrambling (2026 PGA Tour season)

1. Tommy Fleetwood 78.95% 
2. Hideki Matsuyama 78.57
3. Shane Lowry 76.47
4. Jason Day 75.47
5. Patrick Cantlay 72.50
6. Russell Henley 72.41
7. Jake Knapp 71.46
8. Taylor Pendrith 71.41
9. Robert MacIntyre 71.19
10. Ryan Gerard 70.67
11. Nick Taylor 70.27
12. Adam Scott 69.49
13. Harry Hall 69.14
14. Kurt Kitayama 68.25
15. Scottie Scheffler 68.09

Riviera is the fourth-most difficult course on the PGA Tour to gain with the putter. 

Strokes Gained: Putting — Poa Greens — Average Per Round (Last 50 rounds)

1. Akshay Bhatia 1.18 (16 rounds)
2. Denny McCarthy 0.89
3. Wyndham Clark 0.64
4. Jacob Bridgeman 0.63 (12)
5. Max Homa 0.61
6. Maverick McNealy 0.59
7. Xander Schauffele 0.54
8. Adam Scott 0.53
9. Daniel Berger 0.47
10. Garrick Higgo 0.46 (14)
11. Pierceson Coody 0.39 (4)
12. Sahith Theegala 0.38 (44)
13. Brian Campbell 0.38 (26)
14. Michael Kim 0.35
15. Jason Day 0.32
16. Tom Hoge 0.32
17. Min Woo Lee 0.32 (15)
18. J.T. Poston 0.31
19. Sam Burns 0.30
20. Patrick Rodgers 0.30

With players only hitting fairways 51% of the time and greens only 56% of the time, bogeys will still appear on the scorecards even in the soft conditions this week. 

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (Last 50 rounds)

1. Tommy Fleetwood 9.0% (percentage of time player makes bogey)
2. Ben Griffin 9.3
3. Scottie Scheffler 9.7
4. Harris English 10.7
5. Russell Henley 10.8
6. Rickie Fowler 11.0
7. Pierceson Coody 11.1
8. Hideki Matsuyama 11.4
9. Si Woo Kim 11.4
10. Jake Knapp 11.5
11. Nico Echavarria 11.6
12. Matt Fitzpatrick 11.6
13. Nick Taylor 11.7
14. Max McGreevy 11.9
15. Garrick Higgo 12.0
16. Cameron Young 12.0
17. Sam Burns 12.0
18. Patrick Cantlay 12.1
19. Viktor Hovland 12.3
20. Kurt Kitayama 12.6
21. Alex Noren 12.6
22. Justin Rose 12.6
23. J.J. Spaun 12.6

Half of the approach shots come from middle to longer iron distances. Riviera will not be a wedge fest. 

Proximity Gained 150-175 Yards — Average Feet Toward the Hole Gained Per Round (Last 50 rounds)

1. Tom Kim 8.25
2. Daniel Berger 7.75
3. Ryan Fox 7.72
4. Rico Hoey 7.45
5. Tom Hoge 7.22
6. Sepp Straka 7.13
7. Scottie Scheffler 6.99
8. Marco Penge 6.97
9. Corey Conners 6.62
10. Hideki Matsuyama 6.60
11. Tommy Fleetwood 6.33
12. Xander Schauffele 6.28
13. Sami Valimaki 5.75
14. Lucas Glover 5.38
15. Ryan Gerard 5.24
16. Nico Echavarria 4.71
17. Akshay Bhatia 4.62
18. Robert MacIntyre 4.31
19. Maverick McNealy 4.28

Proximity Gained 175-200 Yards — Average Feet Toward the Hole Gained Per Round (Last 50 rounds)

1. Viktor Hovland 16.17
2. Si Woo Kim 11.49
3. Hideki Matsuyama 10.47
4. Matti Schmid 10.31
5. Scottie Scheffler 10.15
6. Keegan Bradley 9.36
7. Bud Cauley 8.66
8. Shane Lowry 8.56
9. Matt McCarty 8.17
10. Sepp Straka 8.16
11. Collin Morikawa 7.90
12. Akshay Bhatia 7.78
13. Kurt Kitayama 6.83
14. Nick Taylor 6.11
15. Xander Schauffele 6.02
16. Lucas Glover 5.94
17. Taylor Pendrith 5.24
18. Rico Hoey 5.22
19. Corey Conners 5.11

The last three Riviera winners — Matsuyama, Rahm, and Niemann — combined to score 29-under par on the par-5s. They are all scoreable and players must take advantage. 

Strokes Gained Par-5s (Last 50 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 43.4
2. Xander Schauffele 35.8
3. Ben Griffin 33.5
4. Pierceson Coody 29.7
5. Rory McIlroy 24.9
6. Sepp Straka 24.7
7. Jake Knapp 23.4
8. Tommy Fleetwood 22.2
9. Matt Fitzpatrick 21.9
10. Harris English 20.4
11. Sam Burns 19.8
12. Adam Scott 19.3
13. Jordan Spieth 17.3
14. Matt McCarty 16.8
15. Viktor Hovland 16.5
16. Justin Rose 16.2
17. Robert MacIntyre 16.1
18. Rico Hoey 15.7
19. Max McGreevy 15.2

Strokes Gained: Total — Riviera Country Club — Average Per Round (Last 24 rounds)

1. Max Homa 2.13
2. Cameron Young 1.87 (12 rounds)
3. Patrick Cantlay 1.84
4. Viktor Hovland 1.68 (16)
5. Collin Morikawa 1.59 (20)
6. Xander Schauffele 1.50
7. Adam Scott 1.46
8. Maverick McNealy 1.44 (6)
9. Robert MacIntyre 1.39 (4)
10. Rory McIlroy 1.32
11. Tony Finau 1.21
12. Scottie Scheffler 1.10 (22)
13. Justin Rose 1.04
14. Harris English 0.90
15. Wyndham Clark 0.90 (14)
16. Hideki Matsuyama 0.87
17. Tommy Fleetwood 0.84 (16)
18. J.T. Poston 0.69
19. Sahith Theegala 0.68 (16)
20. Jordan Spieth 0.59
21. Ludvig Åberg 0.56 (4)

Selections

Rory McIlroy (+1350, Circa Sports)

McIlroy has never won at Riviera, but he does have two top-5s here in his last seven visits. 

Granted, there was probably a sense of relief when he finally completed the career Grand Slam at Augusta last April, plus a heavy focus on the Ryder Cup, but it is not like he has been completely complacent with his game. Since winning the green jacket at the Masters, he has won his home Irish Open, plus two runners-up, and two third-place finishes. 

Last week, he was never really a contender (T-14) in defense of his 2025 Pebble Beach title, but he closed Sunday with an 8-under 64 and was fourth in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach. McIlroy did not gain off the tee, where he is arguably the best in the world, but Pebble Beach is not really a course where you gain much off the tee. A soft course at Riviera is where gaining off the tee can make all the difference, and when you think of players taking apart soft golf courses, McIlroy is the first who comes to mind. 

Patrick Cantlay (29-1, Circa Sports)

Cantlay grew up attending this event as a kid when it was known as the L.A. Open, and the Long Beach native played this course a lot as an amateur and collegiate player at UCLA.

He has finished fourth and third in his last two visits to Riviera. Since 2021, he has been a cumulative 36 under par here. 

He only finished T-14 last week at Pebble Beach, but Cantlay led the field in Sunday’s final round, gaining +4.67 strokes on approach and hit all 18 greens in regulation en route to a 7-under 65. 

Last week, we saw Morikawa break his winless drought. Perhaps it is Cantlay’s turn this week.

Cameron Young (35-1, Caesars Sportsbook)

Young was second on debut at Riviera in 2022, losing out to Joaquin Niemann (a winner here for this column that year). 

Since then, he has two other top-20s here.

Last fall, Young finally earned his long-awaited maiden PGA Tour victory — after seven runners-up over the previous few seasons — at the Wyndham Championship. He was also the leading American point-getter for the losing USA side at the Ryder Cup. So, big things are expected for Young this season, and this might be the right time to serve notice that he is an elite player in the game.

Matt Fitzpatrick (36-1, DraftKings)

Fitzpatrick has gone ninth and 14th over the last two weeks at Phoenix and Pebble Beach.

He ranked third in the field last week for Strokes Gained: Approach and was No. 1 for Greens In Regulation (61/72; 84.7%)

Two weeks ago in Phoenix, Fitzpatrick was sixth for Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and second last week. It is the putter that has been holding him back a bit, but that has been his best club in the bag for most of his career and it is a matter of time before it starts to fire again.

Wyndham Clark (100-1, FanDuel)

Clark finished T-58 last week at Pebble Beach, but it was not because of his iron play, which ranked top 15 in the field. He lost almost 6.5 strokes putting and ranked 79th out of 80 players. 

While he is on the same surface (Poa) this week, these greens are much faster than the ones at Pebble. 

After his 2023 U.S. Open victory at nearby L.A. Country Club, Clark’s parents got married at Riviera Country Club. That certainly means nothing in terms of finding a golf outright winner, but you know I like to walk down “Narrative Street” from time to time. 

Tony Finau (140-1, Circa Sports)

Finau continues to play solid golf of late with his second top-20 in his last three weeks, finishing T-18 at Pebble Beach where the putter (No. 1 Strokes Gained: Putting) and the irons (13th Strokes Gained: Approach) both fired. 

He has two runners-up (2018, 2021) and three other top-20 finishes at Riviera. 

Placement market and/or matchup wagers will be posted on Wednesday at VSiN.com.