Shane Lowry shot 6-over on Saturday, so “Moving Day” lived up to its name to give us quite a final round. Players in the final groups were hit with moderate to heavy rain and brutal playing conditions. Some handled it better than others.
Like Billy Horschel, who shot 2-under and leads by a shot over Justin Rose, Russell Henley, Thriston Lawrence, Xander Schauffele, Daniel Brown, and Sam Burns. Scottie Scheffler is lurking one shot back after being 78th of 80 in Strokes Gained: Putting in the third round.
Overall, we should be looking at an exciting day of golf. Check out what some of our VSiN golf experts are saying as we move to the Final Round at Royal Troon Golf Club.
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Kelley Bydlon
We have an Open Championship! Just when it looked like Shane Lowry might be able to take an insurmountable lead on Saturday, the weather hit, and hit hard. The late groups struggled, while some early starters were able to take advantage of the calm conditions they played in.
Heading into the final round, it’s Billy Horschel with a one stroke lead, but there are quality players all around him, including Scottie Scheffler (two strokes back) and Xander Schauffele (one stroke back). The pricing on both Scheffler and Schauffele looks right heading into the final round, so there won’t be any additional plays in the outright market for me. It’s been a wild tournament so anything could happen tomorrow, but I do think it’s most likely one of those two capturing their second major win of the year.
Wes Reynolds
The Open Championship leaderboard was turned upside down on Saturday at Royal Troon and Billy Horschel, a 175/1 pre-tournament price, has a one-shot lead heading into Sunday’s final round largely due to leading the field in Driving Accuracy (76.2% fairways hit). Horschel has won eight times on the PGA TOUR in his 15-year professional career but has never been on the precipice of winning a major championship.
A host of players – six in all – are just one stroke back at 3-under including Sam Burns (T-96 after Thursday’s first round) and Thriston Lawrence, who both began the day 10 shots off the lead. Both shot 65s on Saturday. Russell Henley, a recommendation in Thursday’s post round 1 column, leads the field for Greens In Regulation (70.4%) and is also at -3.
Justin Rose and Daniel Brown both had to go through qualifying to earn spots in this year’s Open. Rose is a former major champion (2013 U.S. Open), but Brown is a true cinderella story as he was priced as high as 1700/1 at Circa Sports. He has one victory on the DP World Tour but has never been in this position on this stage.
Two guys that have been in this position at a major championship are two of the three major championship winners – PGA Champion Xander Schauffele at -3 and Masters Champion Scottie Scheffler at -2. Scheffler lost -3.06 strokes putting on Saturday ranking 79th out of 80 players who made the weekend cut. Yet, the World No. 1 ranked player is still only two strokes back.
As for 36-hole leader Shane Lowry? He made four bogeys in a stretch of five holes on the back nine on the way to card a 6-over round of 77 and now sits at -1, but still only three strokes back.
There are 24 players at or within six strokes of the current 4-under par lead which also includes former major champions such as Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Dustin Johnson, and Jon Rahm. However, per Justin Ray, of The Athletic, each of the last 23 Open Champions have been inside the Top 10 entering the final round, and 99 of the last 100 have resided there as well. So, Even par would appear to be the cutoff point based on that long-term trend.
The two 2024 major champions in contention – Schauffele and Scheffler – are at +330 and +360 respectively.
Overnight leader Horschel (+550) has his seventh 54-hole overnight lead and is 3-for-6 in his career converting those leads into victories.
Rose (8/1) has ten career Top 5s in major championships but only one victory, and at age 43, has to be pondering if this is his last chance at major glory.
Brown (20/1), who made double bogey at 18 and took himself out of the Sunday final pairing with Horschel, and Lowry (22/1) were the final pairing on Saturday and are still hanging around, but it is more than fair to wonder if the momentum going that went the wrong way on Saturday’s back nine can be turned back around.
Burns (8/1), Henley (9/1), and Lawrence (14/1) shot terrific rounds on Saturday when the conditions were a little less difficult, so it is fair to question whether they can do it on Sunday.
We saw on Saturday, no lead is safe in bad weather; however, Sunday forecasts appear to show the rain in the rearview mirror.
As for who will emerge as the new Champion Golfer of the Year? It is truly wide open.
Matt Youmans
If I’m not going to win this tournament with Justin Rose or Shane Lowry, hopefully it’s the Cinderella story out of nowhere. Daniel Brown, 1,700-1 odds at Circa Sports, did not fade Saturday when most expected him to fade. Lowry, who’s typically a good bad weather player, was solid until he unpredictably fell apart with a cold putter in the third round. Rose (225-1) is sticking close enough to the lead to close the deal.
Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler are probably worth final-round matchup bets and plays to win. Scheffler hit 14 of 18 greens in regulation but did not sink a putt of 8 feet or more, so his ball striking should put him in position to do something positive Sunday. Schauffele has shed his choker reputation in majors and has played as well as anyone all week.
While I like tough majors, and this one is exactly that with a challenging course and inclement weather, these types of British Opens are tougher to handicap. Brian Harman was a huge surprise when he won last year, and I know of no handicappers who touted Billy Horschel this week.
