The Sentry Best Bets and Golf Odds

The Sentry:

The PGA Tour has begun its calendar year in Maui each year since 1999 and does the same this week for The Sentry. 

Traditionally, this was an event exclusively reserved for PGA Tour event winners in the previous season but changed last year to include the qualifiers for the season-ending Tour Championship and now includes the Top 50 in the FedEx Cup Point Standings. 

Unfortunately (or fortunately if you bet against him), the FedEx Cup Champion and PGA Tour Player of the Year Scottie Scheffler will not be playing this week as he had to withdraw from the event as he suffered a puncture wound to the palm of his right hand from broken glass while preparing dinner on Christmas Day. He is expected back for The American Express in two weeks. 

Xander Schauffele (5-1), the 2019 winner here at Kapalua, assumes the favorite’s role. 

Collin Morikawa (10-1) has multiple familial connections to the islands and has never finished outside the top 7 here. 

Justin Thomas (11-1) is a two-time champion (2017, 2020) at Kapalua and finished 2024 strong with a runner-up at the ZOZO and a third at the Hero World Challenge. 

Ludvig Åberg returned to play late in 2024 after missing three months for knee surgery. He is priced at 18-1 along with Patrick Cantlay. 

Hideki Matsuyama (22-1) finished his 2024 with a runner-up at the Dunlop Phoenix held in his native Japan. 

Viktor Hovland (33-1) could be a potential withdrawal here as he fractured his pinky toe while training over Christmas. He also, once again, split with swing coach Joe Mayo. 

Chris Kirk (80-1) is the defending champion of The Sentry. Other top-5 finishers last year that are playing this week include Sungjae Im (18-1), Sahith Theegala (30-1), Byeong Hun An (35-1), J.T. Poston (40-1) and Brian Harman (65-1). 

The Event 

The Sentry has been played at Kapalua Resort in Maui since 1999. The event was established in 1953 when it was hosted at the Desert Inn Country Club, now the site of the Wynn Las Vegas property. It moved to the Stardust Country Club (now Las Vegas National Golf Club, before spending the next 30 years at La Costa Resort in Carlsbad, Calif. The list of event winners is a who’s-who of golfing legends and icons including Jack Nicklaus (1963, 1964, 1971, 1973, 1977), Arnold Palmer (1962, 1965, 1966), Tom Watson (1979, 1980, 1984), Gary Player (1969, 1978), Phil Mickelson (1994, 1998) and Tiger Woods (1997, 2000). In all, 15 players have been multiple event winners since the inception. Four players have won multiple times at Kapalua: Stuart Appleby (2004, 2005, 2006), Geoff Ogilvy (2009, 2010), Dustin Johnson (2013, 2018) and Justin Thomas (2017, 2020). 

The Field

Currently, 60 players are in the field, including 37 of the Top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings.

Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry were eligible but typically start their calendar years in Dubai for the DP World Tour event. 

Here is this week’s field for The Sentry (courtesy of PGA Tour Communications):

The Course 

The Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort was designed in 1991 by the duo of Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw, who also designed and renovated Pinehurst No. 2 and Trinity Forest. The course is laid out over an immense area of terrain on the lower slopes of the volcanic West Maui Mountains. It was constructed on an old pineapple plantation. The track has only three par-3s and is a rare par-73 (36/37 split) that measures 7,596 yards but played as the easiest course on the PGA Tour last year. 

There are 11 par-4s on the course and eight of them measure under 425 yards. No course on the PGA Tour has more elevation changes than Kapalua, so players will face plenty of uneven lies and some blind shots into the pins, but the ball will carry more than usual. The Celebration Bermudagrass fairways are the second-most wide, and generous at nearly 50 yards wide, on the tour. The TifEagle Bermuda greens are the largest on tour (8,700 square feet average) and slower speed (10.5 stimpmeter). 

There are 93 bunkers, fourth most on tour, but zero water holes on the layout. Coastal winds, elevation changes and uneven lies are the course’s main defense. The wind did not blow three years ago and 34 under was the winning score as a result and 29 under was the winning score last year, so expect low scoring. 

PGATOUR.com provides a short flyover of the Plantation Course

Recent History/Winners 

2024: Chris Kirk (-29/263); 125-1

2023: Jon Rahm (-27/265); 7-1

2022: Cameron Smith (-34/258); 25-1

2021: Harris English (-25/267); 33-1**

2020: Justin Thomas (-14/278); 11-2**

2019: Xander Schauffele (-23/269); 22-1

2018: Dustin Johnson (-24/268); 15-2

2017: Justin Thomas (-22/270); 22-1

2016: Jordan Spieth (-30/262); 5-1

2015: Patrick Reed (-21/271); 22-1***

2014: Zach Johnson (-19/273); 14-1

2013: Dustin Johnson (-16/203); 14-1****

2012: Steve Stricker (-23/269); 17-2

2011: Jonathan Byrd (-24/268); 50-1

2010: Geoff Ogilvy (-22/270); 9-1

Playoff win over Joaquin Niemann – *

Playoff win over Patrick Reed & Xander Schauffele – **

Playoff win over Jimmy Walker – ***

Weather-shortened event to 54 holes – ****

Trends, Stats and Angles

​Here are some winning trends for The Sentry:

• 12 of the last 15 winners were age 33 or younger.
• 13 of the last 15 winners were ranked Top 30 or better in the OWGR.
• 14 of the last 15 winners had at least three career PGA Tour victories.
• 15 of the last 15 winners had played in at least one previous Tournament of Champions event.
• 10 of the last 15 winners had finished 11th or better in a previous Tournament of Champions event. 
• 10 of the last 13 winners finished seventh or better in the previous year’s event.
• 6 of the last nine winners finished fourth or better in the previous year’s event.

Statistical Analysis

The average winning score at Kapalua in the last four years has been near 29 under par. 

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Sam Burns 25.69%
2. Max Greyserman 25.10
3. Wyndham Clark 24.88
4. Xander Schauffele 24.77
5. Nick Dunlap 24.73
6. Taylor Pendrith 24.68
7. Patton Kizzire 24.62
8. Jhonattan Vegas 24.37
9. Tony Finau 24.36
10. Maverick McNealy 24.33
11. Collin Morikawa 24.33
12. Ludvig Åberg 24.30

Kapalua is a second-shot golf course as players will not find too much trouble off the tee. 

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Tony Finau 0.808
2. Corey Conners 0.776
3. Tom Hoge 0.754
4. Xander Schauffele 0.678
5. Aaron Rai 0.676
6. Justin Thomas 0.639
7. Si Woo Kim 0.506
8. Hideki Matusyama 0.499
9. Viktor Hovland 0.458
10. Patton Kizzire 0.458
11. Ludvig Åberg 0.434
12. Jhonattan Vegas 0.433

Per Ron Klos @PGASplits101, slightly less than half of the approach shots are from 200 yards and up. 

Proximity To The Hole — 200+ Yards (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Robert MacIntyre 44′ 10″
2. Xander Schauffele 45′ 4″
3. Tom Hoge 45′ 11″
4. Viktor Hovland 46′ 5″
5. Jake Knapp 46′ 8″
6. Patton Kizzire 46′ 11″
7. Byeong Hun An 47′ 2″
8. Max Greyserman 47′ 3″
9. Akshay Bhatia 47′ 10″
10. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 48′ 0″
11. Tony Finau 48′ 0″
12. Sungjae Im 48′ 0″

These low-scoring events usually become wedge-fests. 

Proximity To The Hole 50-125 Yards (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Hideki Matsuyama 15′ 1″
2. Tom Hoge 15′ 4″
3. Justin Thomas 15′ 6″
4. Russell Henley 15′ 8″
5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 15′ 11″
6. Wyndham Clark 16′ 1″
7. Nick Dunlap 16′ 6″
8. Eric Cole 16′ 7″
9. Keegan Bradley 16′ 9″
10. Max Homa 16′ 10″
11. Jake Knapp 17′ 0″
12. J.T. Poston 17′ 1″

Scoring pars on par-5s will get you passed on the leaderboard quickly. 

Strokes Gained Par-5s (Last 50 rounds)

1. Eric Cole 32.3
2. Billy Horschel 28.5
3. Davis Thompson 23.4
4. Patrick Cantlay 22.7
5. Max Greyserman 20.5
6. Tony Finau 20.1
7. Jhonattan Vegas 19
8. Aaron Rai 16.3
9. Sungjae Im 15.9
10. Nick Dunlap 15.8
11. Taylor Pendrith 15.4
12. Ludvig Åberg 14.5
13. Harry Hall 14.1
14. Davis Riley 14.1

The Kapalua greens are big and slow and 100% Bermuda. 

Strokes Gained Bermudagrass Putting — Average Per Round (Last 50 rounds)

1. Max Greyserman 0.81 (28 rounds)
2. Denny McCarthy 0.74
3. Thomas Detry 0.58
4. Billy Horschel 0.55
5. Russell Henley 0.53
6. Sahith Theegala 0.52
7. Maverick McNealy 0.51
8. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.50
9. Xander Schauffele 0.46
10. Brian Harman 0.45
11. Nicolas Echavarria 0.45
12. Adam Scott 0.45
13. Jason Day 0.45
14. Wyndham Clark 0.45

With such large greens, lag putting is even more of a premium this week. 

Three-Putt Avoidance (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Russell Henley 99.01%
2. Xander Schauffele 98.95
3. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 98.68
4. Collin Morikawa 98.45
5. Sam Burns 98.25
6. Robert MacIntyre 98.23
7. Brian Harman 98.21
8. Denny McCarthy 98.15
9. Adam Scott 98.12
10. Austin Eckroat 98.02
11. Maverick McNealy 98.01
12. Justin Thomas 98.01

With some of the widest fairways on Tour and fairly non-penal rough (2.5″), players can attack off the tee with the driver. 

Average Driving Distance (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Byeong Hun An 317.1
2. Chris Gotterup 316.2
3. Wyndham Clark 314.0
4. Jhonattan Vegas 313.9
5. Taylor Pendrith 313.6
6. Max Greyserman 311.0
7. Stephan Jaeger 310.3
8. Ludvig Åberg 310.1
9. Jake Knapp 309.5
10. Justin Thomas 309.1
11. Cameron Young 308.9
12. Xander Schauffele 308.5
13. Tony Finau 308.4
14. Kevin Yu 308.0

Selections

Collin Morikawa (12-1, Bet365)

Morikawa has done everything but win here. Two years ago, he had a seven-shot lead in the final round before falling apart on the back nine. 

He failed to win in 2024, and this looks like a good spot to get off the schneid considering he has never finished outside of the top 7 at this event. 

Sahith Theegala (29-1, Circa Sports)

Theegala was the runner-up here to Chris Kirk last year as he closed with a 10-under round of 63. 

He is very creative all over the golf course, especially around the greens, and that is a recipe for success at Kapalua. 

Akshay Bhatia (35-1, Circa Sports)

Bhatia ended 2024 in red-hot form with a runner-up at the Dunlop Phoenix in Japan, plus a third in the pairs event at the Grant Thornton Invitational and a fourth at the Hero World Challenge. 

He was in the top 15 at both Hawaii events last season and his creativity should be on display at this wide-open layout. 

Sepp Straka (90-1, FanDuel)

Straka finished 12th here last year but was sixth on Approach. 

Matchups and/or placement markets bets will be available at VSiN.com/picks