Valero Texas Open
Stephan Jaeger had been knocking at the door for his maiden PGA Tour victory for a while. He already had a pair of T-3 finishes in 2024 at the Farmers Insurance Open and the Mexico Open. This past weekend, the German-born Jaeger finally walked through the door and earned his first PGA Tour victory at the Texas Children’s Houston Open in his 135th career start and nabbed a 50-1 outright winner for this column. Jaeger won by one stroke over five players, including World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, defending event champion Tony Finau, Taylor Moore, Thomas Detry and Alejandro Tosti. Scheffler had a chance to send it to a playoff but missed a five-foot birdie putt on the 18th.
Jaeger is now fully exempt on tour through 2026 and will compete in his first Masters next week. The 2021 Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year (he won six times on the KFT) had gained and lost his tour card twice but has shown dramatic improvements in his game over the last year. In 2023, he ranked 184th for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and this year he ranks 24th in the category.
This week, the PGA Tour continues its “Texas two-step” in San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open with arguably the best field in the history of the event. Thirty players are choosing this event as their warm-up for the Masters next week.
Rory McIlroy (8-1) will be making his 10th attempt to win the career Grand Slam next week at Augusta National and returns to a course where he has played well, having been runner-up here in 2013.
Ludvig Åberg (12-1) once finished third on this course as a college player at Texas Tech.
Jordan Spieth won the Valero in 2021 and he is priced at 20-1 along with Max Homa.
At 22-1 are Collin Morikawa, who makes his Valero debut, and defending champion Corey Conners, who also won here in 2019.
Matt Fitzpatrick (28-1) makes his Valero debut this week.
Brian Harman (30-1) is the lone 2023 major champion in the field this week.
At 30-1, Europeans Tommy Fleetwood and Alex Noren are both still seeking their first PGA Tour victories. In Noren’s case, this is also his last opportunity to get into next week’s Masters with a win at the Valero.
The Event
The Valero Texas Open is the oldest professional golf tournament to be held in the same city during its entire existence, and its lineage dates to 1922. It is the sixth-oldest professional golf tournament worldwide and the third oldest on the PGA Tour. The tournament has moved all over the place from spring to fall on the PGA Tour schedule but was moved to the spring in 2009, and now seems to have found a home a week ahead of the Masters, its placement since 2019. San Antonio-based Valero Energy Corporation, a Fortune 500 international manufacturer of transportation fuels, petrochemical products and power, came aboard as the primary sponsor in 2002. The Valero ranks near the top of the PGA Tour in terms of money raised for various charitable organizations. The 2021 Valero Texas Open raised a record $16 million for charity, bringing the grand total to over $187 million in charitable giving. This week’s event is also the final chance for entry into the Masters field if the eventual winner is not already part of the field.
The Field
Thirty players are choosing this event as their warm-up for Augusta National. It includes one of the best fields ever in San Antonio with six of the top 12 players in the world: Rory McIlroy, Brian Harman, Ludvig Åberg, Max Homa, Matt Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood. Other headliners include Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, Russell Henley and two-time winner Corey Conners.
Field updates:
- Matt Wallace withdrew on Saturday; Trace Crowe IN as first alternate.
- Scott Stallings withdrew on Sunday; Blaine Hale, Jr. IN as second alternate.
- Raul Pereda and Hayden Springer IN on sponsor exemptions.
- Stephan Jaeger withdrew on Monday; Bronson Burgoon IN on a sponsor exemption.
- Thomas Detry withdrew on Monday; Erik Barnes IN on a sponsor exemption.
- Alex Welch, Tom Adrounie, Adam Long and Peter Kuest IN as Monday open qualifiers.
The Course
The Valero Texas Open moved to its present home of the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio in 2010. TPC San Antonio has two courses: The AT&T Canyons Course designed by Pete Dye with a consultation from Bruce Lietzke and the AT&T Oaks Course designed by Greg Norman with a consultation from Sergio Garcia. The Oaks Course is a par-72 of 7,438 yards and is played at 1,100 feet of elevation (third highest on tour).
Some of the oak tree and brush-lined Rye (80%)/fescue (20%) fairways are on the tighter (28 yards on average) side and rank as 14th narrowest on tour. Players will hit into big (6,400 square feet, 20th largest on tour), undulating, but firm and elevated greens with Champion Bermudagrass over-seeded with Poa Trivialis that measure a slow 11 on the stimpmeter with deep bunkers that surround. The rough is relatively short (2.25 inches) and non-penal, so players do not have a lot of trouble lurking if they are wayward off the tee. It can get windy this time of year in Texas, so the winning score has varied from as high as 8 under par to 20 under par. Despite non-penal rough and only three water hazards on the layout, TPC San Antonio played as the 13th-most difficult out of 44 courses last year on the PGA Tour.
The front nine (a little over 150 yards longer than the back) historically plays significantly more difficult. From 2010-2018, the field played the front nine +3,704 compared with just +730 on the back nine. In that same span, this event had more triple bogeys or worse (289) than all other courses except for TPC Sawgrass (338) and PGA National (323).
The closing holes here often give us an exciting finish, with two risk/reward holes making up the final two holes. The par-3 16th kicks off this finishing trio, a huge doughnut-shaped green, with a bunker in the middle of the putting surface. Followed by the drivable par-4 17th and the par-5 18th, played to an angled green and a stream protecting the front.
Correlated courses to TPC San Antonio include PGA National, Riviera, Colonial, Memorial Park, Innisbrook, TPC Summerlin, TPC Scottsdale, Bay Hill.
Recent History/Winners
2023: Corey Conners (-15/273); 25-1
2022: J.J. Spaun (-13/275); 150-1
2021: Jordan Spieth (-18/270); 12-1
2020: No Tournament (COVID-19)
2019: Corey Conners (-20/268); 200-1
2018: Andrew Landry (-17/271); 200-1
2017: Kevin Chappell (-12/276); 33-1
2016: Charley Hoffman (-12/276); 30-1
2015: Jimmy Walker (-11/277); 25-1
2014: Steven Bowditch (-8/280); 350-1
2013: Martin Laird (-14/274); 100-1
2012: Ben Curtis (-9/279); 150-1
2011: Brendan Steele (-8/280); 30-1
2010: Adam Scott (-14/274); 25-1
Trends and Angles
- 8 of the last 11 events played the week before the Masters were won by a player who was not in the Masters field.
- Of the last 12 winners, 6 were winning a PGA Tour event for the first time.
- Each of the last 10 winners here has played here at least once before and 9 of 10 made the cut on his most recent visit.
- Since play began at the Oaks Course in 2010, the third-round leader/co-leader has gone on to win eight times.
Statistical Analysis
TPC San Antonio is the eighth-toughest layout to gain strokes on approach. Not only are the greens heavily guarded by difficult and deep bunkers, but many are also elevated above the fairway and do not provide bailout areas for errant shots.
In three of the last six years, the Valero winner ranked first in the field for Approach during their winning weeks.
Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 36 rounds)
- Ryan Moore 31.4
- Corey Conners 26.9
- Joel Dahmen 22.8
- Chez Reavie 22
- Mark Hubbard 19.5
- Erik Van Rooyen 19.3
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 19.2
- Sam Ryder 18.7
- Hideki Matsuyama 18.6
- Ludvig Åberg 17.8
- Greyson Sigg 17.3
- Collin Morikawa 16.9
- Lucas Glover 16.3
- Justin Lower 16.2
- Aaron Rai 16
- Kevin Streelman 15.4
- Davis Thompson 15.2
- Austin Eckroat 15.2
- Eric Cole 14.8
- Jhonattan Vegas 14.3
Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 24 rounds)
- Keith Mitchell 21.7
- Ryan Moore 20.5
- Joel Dahmen 20.3
- Corey Conners 19.4
- Victor Perez 16.2
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 15.1
- Hideki Matsuyama 14.9
- Aaron Rai 13.8
- Doug Ghim 13
- Austin Eckroat 12.6
- Lucas Glover 11.9
- Akshay Bhatia 11.8
- Mark Hubbard 11.6
- Bud Cauley 11.6
- Andrew Novak 11.1
- Davis Thompson 11
- Sam Ryder 11
- Collin Morikawa 10.6
TPC San Antonio is unique off the tee because it is not a bomber’s paradise, but it is not exactly a course that totally caters to straight, accurate hitters. While many of the drivable holes have narrow tree-lined fairways, others are much wider. The average Driving Accuracy here is only 54% compared with the tour average of 61%. Last year this number dipped to 49%, thanks to the firm turf and windy conditions.
Good Drives Gained is a measure of a player’s ability to hit a green in regulation whether they were in the fairway or not.
Good Drives Gained (Last 36 rounds)
- Aaron Rai 42.8
- Billy Horschel 36.4
- Alex Noren 36.2
- Andrew Putnam 32.8
- Ryan Moore 32.7
- Joel Dahmen 31.7
- Rory McIlroy 30.1
- Victor Perez 28.7
- Corey Conners 27.4
- Austin Eckroat 24.7
- Harris English 24.1
- Lucas Glover 24
- Kevin Dougherty 22.5 (32 Rounds)
- Sam Ryder 21.6
- Nate Lashley 20.8
- Martin Laird 20.6
- Ryo Hisatsune 19
- Keith Mitchell 19
TPC San Antonio ranks as the third-highest course to dole out double bogeys or worse on player scorecards.
Bogeys Avoided (Last 36 rounds)
- Alex Noren 30.2
- Aaron Baddeley 25.6
- Andrew Putnam 23.5
- Taylor Montgomery 21.8
- Ludvig Åberg 19.3
- Collin Morikawa 18.6
- Billy Horschel 18.5
- Bud Cauley 18.3
- Ryan Moore 18.2
- Max Homa 16.8
- Doug Ghim 16.5
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 16
- Taylor Pendrith 15.3
- Greyson Sigg 15.3
- Denny McCarthy 15.1
- Ben Silverman 14.9
- Beau Hossler 14.6
- Chesson Hadley 14.5
- Matt Kuchar 14.4
The par-5s at TPC San Antonio average around 588 yards and rank as the most difficult set of par-5s on the PGA Tour.
Strokes Gained Par-5s (Last 36 rounds)
- Doug Ghim 21.7
- Matt Fitzpatrick 20.4
- Mark Hubbard 19.6
- Erik Van Rooyen 18
- Beau Hossler 16.2
- Alex Noren 15
- Ludvig Åberg 14.4
- Max Homa 13.9
- Grayson Murray 13.1
- Jhonattan Vegas 12.8
- Taylor Pendrith 12.4
- Kevin Yu 12.2
- Adam Schenk 11.9
- Jimmy Stanger 11.6
- Max Greyserman 11.2 (26 Rounds)
- Keith Mitchell 10.9
- Bud Cauley 9.2
The cavernous bunkers at TPC San Antonio are the eighth toughest on tour in which to gain strokes.
Sand Saves Gained (Last 36 rounds)
- Rickie Fowler 12.5
- Bud Cauley 11.6
- Nicolas Echavarria 10.9
- Carl Yuan 9.7
- Max Homa 8.2
- Padraig Harrington 7.8
- Jordan Spieth 7.6
- Brendon Todd 8.9
- Jacob Bridgeman 6.4
- Lucas Glover 6.4
- Aaron Baddeley 5.9
- Luke Donald 5.7
- Grayson Murray 5.4
- Russell Henley 5.3
- Raul Pereda 5.2
Numbers wise, Scrambling is easier here at TPC San Antonio versus the average course on tour, but it is dependent on a lack of wind as well.
Scrambling Gained (Last 36 rounds)
- Aaron Baddeley 28.2
- Taylor Montgomery 26
- Ben Griffin 22.2
- Denny McCarthy 21.5
- Maverick McNealy 20.4
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 16.4
- Bud Cauley 16.2
- Joseph Bramlett 14.5
- Alex Noren 14.5
- Roger Sloan 13.3
- Brendon Todd 13.1
- Luke Donald 11.9
- Greyson Sigg 11.7
- Max Homa 11.1
- Andrew Putnam 11
- Billy Horschel 10.8
- Martin Laird 10.2
- K.H. Lee 10.1
- Ludvig Åberg 10
Birdie Or Better Gained can be used as a general indicator of how players are scoring.
Birdie Or Better Gained (Last 36 rounds)
- Ludvig Åberg 31.5
- Rory McIlroy 30.5
- Byeong Hun An 27.3
- Garrick Higgo 26
- Erik Van Rooyen 23.7
- Matt Fitzpatrick 20
- Sam Ryder 19.6
- Collin Morikawa 17.5
- Grayson Murray 16.9
- Adam Scott 16.9
- Taylor Pendrith 16.9
- Ryo Hisatsune 16.4
- Mark Hubbard 16.2
- Max Homa 15.4
- Alejandro Tosti 15.2
- Akshay Bhatia 14.2
- Nate Lashley 14.1
- Keith Mitchell 13.9
- Beau Hossler 13
The greens at TPC San Antonio are slower than average speed compared with other courses on the PGA Tour.
Strokes Gained: Putting — Average Speed Greens (Last 36 rounds)
- Matt Kuchar 32
- Justin Lower 26.3
- Billy Horschel 23.8
- Brian Harman 22.8
- Eric Cole 22.2 (35 rounds)
- Taylor Montgomery 22.1 (26 rounds)
- Maverick McNealy 21.2
- Alex Noren 18.8
- Brandon Wu 17.7
- Chad Ramey 17.6
- Tommy Fleetwood 17.4 (26 rounds)
- Harry Hall 17.2
- Troy Merritt 17.1
- Nicholas Lindheim 16.4
- Harris English 15.4
- Ben Griffin 15.3 (24 rounds)
- Ben Taylor 14.2
- Brendon Todd 13.3
We saw last Sunday that the wind can pick up in Texas this time of year and affect scoring.
Strokes Gained: Total — Moderate to Windy Conditions (Last 36 rounds)
- Rory McIlroy 74.9
- Denny McCarthy 50.3
- Jordan Spieth 49.1
- Rickie Fowler 44.2
- Matt Fitzpatrick 39.3
- Adam Schenk 38.9
- Corey Conners 38
- Collin Morikawa 37.2
- Patrick Rodgers 37
- Adam Scott 36.6
- Callum Tarren 35
- Eric Cole 33.9
- Brian Harman 33.6
- Byeong Hun An 32.7
- Andrew Putnam 31.6
- Alex Noren 29.2
- Harry Hall 28.5 (32 rounds)
- Ben Griffin 28.4 (34 rounds)
- Taylor Pendrith 27.4
- Tommy Fleetwood 27.4
Selections
Alex Noren (34-1, Circa Sports)
Last week, Stephan Jaeger was rewarded for consistency with his first PGA Tour win in Houston. Perhaps this week is Noren’s turn.
Noren has made 15 of his last 18 cuts with a third-place finish at the Shriners and a second at the Bermuda Championship in the Fall Swing the highlights. He comes into this one off the back of three straight top-20s at the Cognizant Classic (9th), the Players (19th) and the Houston Open (11th) in recent weeks, so he looks in strong form.
The Swede is a 10-time DP World Tour winner and has proved he can compete on this tour and ranks fifth for Strokes Gained: Total over his last 24 rounds.
Billy Horschel (39-1, Circa Sports)
Horschel finds himself in danger of missing the Masters for the first time since 2017, and winning the Valero is his last chance to earn an invitation. He has also had some past success at the Valero, finishing third and fourth, respectively, in 2015 and 2016.
He is trying to rally here as he has posted three top-12 finishes (T-7 last week in Houston, T-9 at PGA National, T-12 at Valspar) in his last four events.
Horschel has been clutch with the pressure on in past years. In 2014, he won two FedEx Cup events to become the FedEx Cup champion and nearly made the Ryder Cup (probably should have) team that year.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (55-1, FanDuel)
Bezuidenhout is another consistent player who is looking for his first PGA Tour victory.
He got a first-place check (finished second) at the American Express earlier this year because then-amateur Nick Dunlap was the winner.
The South African is 11th for Approach, 17th for Putting and 21st for SG: Total this season. His driving also picked up on the Florida Swing as he gained strokes Off The Tee at the Arnold Palmer and Valspar.
Maverick McNealy (66-1, BetMGM)
McNealy also needs a victory, which would be his first on the PGA Tour, to make the Masters for the first time.
He is one of the best putters in the field and has had his moments in 2024 with a T-6 at Phoenix and a T-9 at The Players Championship.
McNealy also ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Total over the last 24 rounds.
Andrew Novak (125-1, SuperBook Sports)
Novak finished ninth here at TPC San Antonio last year.
His run of form from February (T-8 Phoenix, T-8 Mexico, T-9 PGA National) has slowed a bit, but he ranks sixth for Strokes Gained: Total over the last 24 rounds.
He led the field in putting at the Valero last year and was third for Scrambling, so he is clearly comfortable with these slower greens.
Ryan Moore (150-1, Caesars Sportsbook)
Moore has not appeared in the Masters since 2018. The five-time PGA Tour winner also has not won anywhere in 7 1/2 years. However, he has dealt with various back injuries over the past several years but looks to be rounding into form.
Moore finished in a tie for fifth at the Valspar Championship and backed it up with a solid performance last week at Memorial Park, where he finished 31st at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
He leads the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 24 rounds and has played well throughout his career at TPC San Antonio, finishing seventh in 2018 and third in 2019.
Nate Lashley (155-1, Circa Sports)
Lashley was one of a few players standing greenside this past Sunday to congratulate his good buddy Stephan Jaeger on winning his first PGA Tour event.
Perhaps that can inspire Lashley to earn his second (2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic) PGA Tour win.
Lashley finished T-3 this year, coincidentally tied with his pal Jaeger, at the Farmers Insurance Open. After four consecutive missed cuts, Lashley finished T-13 at The Players and T-21 last week in Houston.
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