Valero Texas Open Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds

Valero Texas Open Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:

Two-and-a-half years ago, Gary Woodland had brain surgery. Two weeks ago, before The Players Championship, he opened up about his frightening struggles with post-traumatic stress disorder. Woodland, at an opening price of 80-1 last week, completed a true feel-good story in the game of golf, winning the Texas Children’s Houston Open to earn his first victory since the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach.

Woodland led the field for Strokes Gained: Putting (+8.32 strokes over four days) and was second for Greens In Regulation en route to a five-shot victory at 21 under. 

Nicolai Højgaard, our nearest pursuer, was one shot back of Woodland and in the final pairing heading into Sunday but carded a bogey on the first hole and never could get it going as Woodland had complete control of his game and ran away from the field. Højgaard settled for a runner-up finish.

Min Woo Lee, last year’s Houston Open champion, finished T-3 with Johnny Keefer. Sam Stevens finished solo fifth, while Jason Day was T-6 along with Jake Knapp, Chris Gotterup and Sudarshan Yellamaraju. So we ended up with three in the top 10 and a good placement market week but no outright winner.

This week concludes the “Texas two-step” before Augusta as the PGA Tour heads to San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. 

European Ryder Cup teammates Tommy Fleetwood and Ludvig Åberg share the co-favorites role at 16-1.

Russell Henley (18-1) finished fourth here two years ago and Jordan Spieth (+1950) was the 2021 winner here. 

Si Woo Kim, Collin Morikawa and Robert MacIntyre all follow at 20-1. 

Hideki Matsuyama (22-1), Maverick McNealy (25-1), who finished third here last year, and Michael Thorbjornsen (28-1), who was a contender last week before finishing T-14 and now has one last chance to make next week’s Masters field by winning the Valero, Rickie Fowler (29-1) and Sepp Straka (29-1) start the midrange of the market.

Brian Harman (70-1) will try to defend his Valero title from last season. 

Other former Valero champions in this week’s field include 2022 winner J.J. Spaun (40-1), 2016 winner Charley Hoffman (750-1) and 2015 winner Jimmy Walker (2500-1).

The Event

The Valero Texas Open is the oldest professional golf tournament to be held in the same city in its entire existence and its lineage dates to 1922. It is the sixth-oldest professional golf tournament worldwide and the third-oldest on the PGA Tour. The tournament has moved around all over the place from spring to fall on the PGA Tour schedule but was moved to the spring in 2009 and now seems to have found a home being scheduled the week before the Masters back in 2019. San Antonio-based Valero Energy Corporation, a Fortune 500 international manufacturer of transportation fuels, petrochemical products and power, came aboard as the primary sponsor in 2002. The Valero ranks near the top of the PGA Tour in terms of money raised for various charitable organizations.

The Field

The Valero Texas Open field features eight of the top-20 ranked players in the OWGR, headlined by Ludvig Åberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley, J.J. Spaun, Sepp Straka, Robert MacIntyre and Alex Noren.

132 players are in this week’s field competing for a $9.8 million purse with $1.764 million going to the winner. Many players in the field are also competing for the last spot in next week’s Masters, which goes to the winner if not already in the field.

NOTE: Collin Morikawa was a Tuesday morning W/D with a back issue. 

The Course

The Valero Texas Open moved to its present home of the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio in 2010. TPC San Antonio has two courses: The AT&T Canyons Course, designed by Pete Dye with a consultation from Bruce Lietzke, and the AT&T Oaks Course, designed by Greg Norman with a consultation from Sergio Garcia. The Oaks Course is a par-72 of 7,438 yards and is played at 1100 feet of elevation (third highest on tour).

Some of the oak tree and brush-lined Rye (80%)/fescue (20%) fairways are on the tighter (27.5 yards on average — fourth narrowest on tour) side. Players will hit into bigger (6,400 square feet), undulating, but firm and elevated greens with Champion Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis that will run at an average 12 on the stimpmeter with deep bunkers that surround. The rough has been grown out to three inches to make it a bit more penal. It can get windy this time of year in Texas, so the winning score has varied from as high as 8 under par to 20 under par. Despite mostly non-penal rough and only three water hazards on the layout, TPC San Antonio played as the 11th-most difficult out of 50 courses last year on the PGA Tour. 

The closing holes here often give us an exciting finish, with two risk/reward holes at the end. The par-3 16th kicks off this finishing trio, a huge doughnut-shaped green, with a bunker in the middle of the putting surface. Followed by the drivable par-4 17th and the par-5 18th, played to an angled green and a stream protecting the front.

Correlated courses to TPC San Antonio include PGA National, Riviera, Colonial, Memorial Park, Innisbrook, TPC Summerlin, TPC Scottsdale and Bay Hill.

Weather

In early April, you sometimes get multiple seasons a day deep in the heart of Texas. 

It has been relatively dry in San Antonio of late, but rain is in the forecast throughout the early portion of the tournament. Breezy conditions are projected throughout the weekend. 

Two years ago, Akshay Bhatia shot -20 in his victory, but Brian Harman was the winner last year at -9. With this forecast, the winner looks likely to be in the middle of those two extremes. 

Valero Texas Open Recent History/Winners

2025: Brian Harman (-9/279); 80-1

2024: Akshay Bhatia (-20/268); 55-1*

2023: Corey Conners (-15/273); 25-1

2022: J.J. Spaun (-13/275); 150-1

2021: Jordan Spieth (-18/270); 12-1

2020: No Tournament (COVID-19)

2019: Corey Conners (-20/268); 200-1

2018: Andrew Landry (-17/271); 200-1

2017: Kevin Chappell (-12/276); 33-1

2016: Charley Hoffman (-12/276); 30-1

2015: Jimmy Walker (-11/277); 25-1

2014: Steven Bowditch (-8/280); 350-1

2013: Martin Laird (-14/274); 100-1

2012: Ben Curtis (-9/279); 150-1

2011: Brendan Steele (-8/280); 30-1

2010: Adam Scott (-14/274); 25-1

Playoff win over Denny McCarthy – *

​Trends & Angles

• ​9 of the last 13 events played the week before the Masters were won by a player who was not in the Masters field.
• Of the last 14 winners, six were winning a PGA Tour event for the first time.
• Each of the last 12 winners here has played here at least once before and 11 of 12 made the cut on their most recent visit.
• Since play began at the Oaks Course in 2010, the third-round leader/co-leader has gone on to win ten times.

Statistical Analysis

In six of the last eight Valero Texas Opens, the winner has ranked first or second for Strokes Gained: Approach during the week.

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)

1. Austin Smotherman 1.031
2. Si Woo Kim 0.900
3. Daniel Berger 0.839
4. Sepp Straka 0.718
5. Thorbjørn Olesen 0.608
6. Hideki Matsuyama 0.559
7. Joel Dahmen 0.517
8. Zecheng Dou 0.512
9. Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.511
10. Ludvig Åberg 0.508
11. Austin Eckroat 0.461
12. Ryo Hisatsune 0.426
13. Russell Henley 0.411
14. Jordan Spieth 0.407
15. Max McGreevy 0.399
16. Jackson Suber 0.399
17. Keith Mitchell 0.385
18. Jordan Smith 0.364
19. Johnny Keefer 0.355
20. J.J. Spaun 0.355
21. David Ford 0.351

The average Driving Accuracy here in San Antonio is lower than the tour average (51% here the last five years vs. around 60% for tour average) mainly due to wind, but also tighter fairways, and thicker rough than normal. 

Neither distance nor accuracy has proved to be all that important here, so Good Drives Gained looks to be the best starting point for off-the-tee performance.

Good Drives Percentage measures drives where the player either hits the fairway off the tee OR the player misses the fairway but still hits the green or fringe in regulation.

Good Drive Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)

1. Collin Morikawa 88.10%
2. Joel Dahmen 86.26
3. Si Woo Kim 86.21
4. William Mouw 85.51
5. Daniel Berger 85.46
6. Ryo Hisatsune 85.12
7. Max McGreevy 84.35
8. Chris Kirk 83.96
9. Russell Henley 83.93
10. Johnny Keefer 83.86
11. Lucas Glover 83.64
12. Haotong Li 83.56
13. Rickie Fowler 83.53
14. Adrien Saddier 83.46
15. Tom Kim 83.42
16. John Parry 83.33
17. Austin Smotherman 83.33
18. Andrew Putnam 83.22
19. Dylan Wu 83.19
20. Emiliano Grillo 83.15
21. Sudarshan Yellamaraju 83.13

Ultimately, the Valero is more of a ball strikers type of event as opposed to a long driver’s event like last week in Houston. 

Ball Striking is the total of a player’s rank in both Total Driving and Greens in Regulation.

Ball Striking (2026 PGA Tour season)

1. Collin Morikawa 7 (5 Total Driving + 2 GIR)
2. Jordan Smith 15 (7 + 8)
3. Johnny Keefer 18 (17 + 1) 
4. Ludvig Åberg 19 (7 + 12)
5. Daniel Berger 22 (16 + 6)
6. Ryo Hisatsune 27 (24 + 3)
7. Sudarshan Yellamaraju 30 (2 + 28)
8. Austin Smotherman 36 (21 + 15)
9. Si Woo Kim 45 (29 + 16)
10. William Mouw 47 (4 + 43)
11. Michael Thorbjornsen 48 (1 + 47)
12. Haotong Li 52 (29 + 23)
13. David Ford 55 (6 + 49)
14. Keith Mitchell 63 (40 + 23)
15. Rickie Fowler 66 (17 + 49)
16. Alex Smalley 70 (51 + 19)
17. Jesper Svensson 89 (20 + 69)
18. Joel Dahmen 92 (70 + 22)
19. Max McGreevy 95 (64 + 31)
20. Gordon Sargent 95 (60 + 35)
21. Chris Kirk 96 (51 + 45)

Hitting greens in regulation is not necessarily a gimme here (around 56%) due to the run-off collection areas, so players will have to scramble for pars here.

Scrambling (2026 PGA Tour season)

1. Hideki Matsuyama 73.65%
2. Kris Ventura 72.28
3. Robert MacIntyre 71.92
4. Russell Henley 70.31
5. Nick Taylor 68.79
6. Andrew Putnam 67.31
7. Rickie Fowler 67.11
8. Taylor Moore 66.86
9. Stephan Jaeger 66.32
10. Davis Thompson 66.23
11. S.H. Kim 65.99
12. Matthieu Pavon 65.57
13. Denny McCarthy 65.50
14. Jordan Spieth 65.41
15. Adrien Dumont de Chassart 65.32
16. Beau Hossler 65.22
17. Zecheng Dou 65.10
18. Eric Cole 64.97
19. Si Woo Kim 64.88
20. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 64.84
21. David Lipsky 64.84
22. Joel Dahmen 64.71
23. Matt Kuchar 64.65
24. Chad Ramey 64.65

While there are only 64 bunkers on the course, players will find them due to the wind and they are some of the deeper bunkers on tour.

Sand Save Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)

1. Brandt Snedeker 80.95%
2. Brice Garnett 76.92
3. Hideki Matsuyama 76.09
4. Beau Hossler 75.86
5. Adam Svensson 68.97
6. S.H. Kim 67.27
7. Nick Taylor 65.91
8. John VanDerLaan 65.12
9. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 64.29
10. Stephan Jaeger 63.83
11. Steven Fisk 63.33
12. Collin Morikawa 62.86
13. Haotong Li 62.79
14. Davis Thompson 62.79
15. Robert MacIntyre 61.54
16. Kevin Streelman 61.54
17. Alex Noren 61.11
18. Eric Cole 60.71
19. Kris Ventura 60.00

While only seven of the last 15 winners of the Valero have finished inside the top 10 in Strokes Gained Putting: Putting the year they won, it is still worth examining the putting form coming into the event.

Strokes Gained: Putting — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)

1. Vince Whaley 1.115
2. Matthieu Pavon 0.952
3. Matt Kuchar 0.902
4. Robert MacIntyre 0.886
5. Kris Ventura 0.786
6. Beau Hossler 0.778
7. Chad Ramey 0.722
8. Rickie Fowler 0.718
9. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.703
10. Karl Vilips 0.683
11. Russell Henley 0.662
12. Sam Ryder 0.615
13. Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.562
14. Takumi Kanaya 0.530
15. Jordan Spieth 0.518
16. David Lipsky 0.488
17. Kevin Streelman 0.477
18. Brandt Snedeker 0.420
19. Nick Dunlap 0.417

The greens are contoured and have various slopes to them, which affects approach shots the most, but they can be tricky for players to avoid bogeys.

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)

1. Russell Henley 10.86% (percentage of time player makes bogey or worse)
2. Nick Taylor 11.30
3. Hideki Matsuyama 11.31
4. Robert MacIntyre 11.34
5. Rickie Fowler 11.54
6. Si Woo Kim 11.81
7. Kris Ventura 11.85
8. Sudarshan Yellamaraju 12.54
9. Joel Dahmen 12.63
10. Davis Thompson 12.76
11. Collin Morikawa 12.96
12. John Parry 13.19
13. A.J. Ewart 13.33
14. Mackenzie Hughes 13.37
15. Haotong Li 13.43
16. Jordan Spieth 13.46
17. Adrien Dumont de Chassart 13.49
18. Daniel Berger 13.52
19. Chad Ramey 13.56
20. David Ford 13.68
21. Mac Meissner 13.68
22. Ricky Castillo 13.72
23. Alex Smalley 13.73

The four par-5s on this layout average 588 yards with two of them being over 600 yards and not always reachable in two shots.

Par-5 Birdie Or Better Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)

1. Collin Morikawa 61.67%
2. Tommy Fleetwood 60.00
3. Ludvig Åberg 59.21
4. Daniel Berger 58.82
5. Max Homa 58.33
6. Robert MacIntyre 58.33
7. William Mouw 58.11
8. Adrien Dumont de Chassart 57.45
9. Charley Hoffman 57.41
10. Hideki Matsuyama 57.29
11. Sepp Straka 57.14
12. Max McGreevy 56.78
13. Tom Kim 56.73
14. Maverick McNealy 55.56
15. Russell Henley 55.13
16. Gary Woodland 54.84
17. Sudarshan Yellamaraju 54.81
18. Rico Hoey 54.46
19. S.H. Kim 53.85
20. Stephan Jaeger 53.77

Selections

Michael Thorbjornsen (33-1, Circa Sports)

Thorbjornsen made three bogeys on the back nine Sunday in Houston to fall to T-14 and prevented him from being inside the OWGR top 50 to receive an invite to next week’s Masters. Nevertheless, he has one more opportunity if he can win the Valero this week.

He ranked second in Scrambling last week in Houston, and around-the-green play will be vital this week.

Thorbjornsen leads the PGA Tour for Total Driving. 

He has been knocking at the door for a victory with four top-4 finishes over the last calendar year. 

Ryo Hisatsune (41-1, Circa Sports)

Hisatsune finished fifth at the Valero last year.

The man from Japan has made eight consecutive cuts this season, including a runner-up at Torrey Pines and other top-10 finishes at Phoenix and Pebble Beach.

Hisatsune ranks third on the PGA Tour for Greens In Regulation, so he should be set up for a lot of birdie opportunities this week. 

Denny McCarthy (47-1, DraftKings)

McCarthy finished runner-up here two years ago, and that was bookended by two top-18 finishes in 2022 and 2025. 

He is a very good wind player and always seems to be a fixture on the leaderboard in tough conditions.

McCarthy finished 12th last week in Houston on a course that is way too long for him off the tee. TPC San Antonio is a much better fit.

Johnny Keefer (61-1, DraftKings)

Keefer gets a home game this week in his adopted hometown of San Antonio and on a course where he is a member.

Both the Korn Ferry Tour Player and Rookie of the Year in 2025, Keefer broke a string of three missed cuts with a T-3 last week in Houston.

Keefer ranks fourth overall on the PGA Tour for Ball Striking where he has been plenty long and accurate off the tee plus gaining with the irons on approach.

Sudarshan Yellamaraju (63-1, DraftKings)

Based on the price cut, the word is out on the 24-year-old self-taught PGA Tour rookie. 

The Canadian finished T-6 last week in Houston and fifth at The Players Championship three weeks ago. 

He not only ranks seventh in this field for Ball Striking but also in the top 15 for Strokes Gained: Putting, so he has shown the complete game early on in 2026. 

Jordan Smith (75-1, Circa Sports)

The two-time DP World Tour winner from England finished just T-44 last week in Houston but did shoot all four rounds in the 60s last weekend. 

He was third two weeks ago at the Valspar and has other good finishes at Phoenix (16th) and the Cognizant Classic (23rd).

Smith has ranked 13th and 4th for Off The Tee in the last two events and 26th and 2nd Tee To Green and is also now first in this field for Ball Striking with Morikawa’s W/D.

William Mouw (110-1, DraftKings)

Last summer’s ISCO Championship winner, Mouw ranks fourth in this field for Good Drive Percentage and 10th for Ball Striking.

Furthermore, he was rated first, fourth and fifth for Total Driving in his last three tournaments. 

Placement markets, matchups, and other futures will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks