Valspar Championship Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:
The Players Championship is known for wild swings, and Sunday’s final round was no exception. Ludvig Åberg led or co-led since the ninth hole of Friday’s second round. The Swede led by three shots at the turn but fell apart on the back nine. He found the water on the 11th, losing the outright lead, then pulled his drive into the water.
Matt Fitzpatrick inherited the lead until the famous 17th at TPC Sawgrass, where Cameron Young hit his tee shot at the par-3 to inside 10 feet and made birdie to tie for the lead at 13 under par. Then, Young launched a 375-yard drive on the 18th — the longest drive ever recorded on the finishing hole. That tee shot ended up being good enough for a par and good enough to cash a 35-1 winner for us. We also had runner-up Fitzpatrick and Åberg (T-5). Xander Schauffele posted the clubhouse lead at 11 under but ended up settling for third while Robert MacIntyre finished fourth. Åberg ended up settling for a tie for fifth with rookie Sudarshan Yellamaraju and Jacob Bridgeman.
This week, the PGA Tour closes out the Florida swing in Tampa at the Valspar Championship.
Two of last week’s Players contenders — Schauffele (11-1) and Fitzpatrick (14-1) — top this week’s odds board.
Last year’s Valspar champion, Viktor Hovland (16-1), was on the first page of the leaderboard for most of the weekend before finishing T-13 at The Players. Hovland beat runner-up Justin Thomas (22-1) by one stroke here last year. Thomas finished T-8 last week at The Players in what was his second start back from offseason back surgery.
Akshay Bhatia (20-1) won the Arnold Palmer Invitational two weeks ago.
Jacob Bridgeman (22-1), the winner of the Genesis Invitational last month, finished third here last year.
Jordan Spieth (25-1) won the Valspar in 2015 and Patrick Cantlay (28-1) was runner-up here in 2017 but has not played here since.
Brooks Koepka (30-1) is just a few weeks into his PGA Tour return but has finished ninth (Cognizant Classic) and 13th (The Players) in his last two starts.
Corey Conners (33-1) finished eighth here last year.
Ben Griffin (35-1), Nicolai Højgaard (36-1), J.J. Spaun (40-1) and Sahith Theegala (40-1) start the midrange in the market.
Other former Valspar champions in the field include 2024 winner Peter Malnati (400-1), 2023 winner Taylor Moore (80-1), 2017 winner Adam Hadwin (180-1), 2013 winner Kevin Streelman (500-1) and 2011 winner Gary Woodland (200-1).
The Event
The Valspar Championship was founded as the Tampa Bay Classic in 2000. Originally, the tournament was a fall event but moved to the spring portion of the season in 2007. Valspar Corporation, a manufacturer of paint and coatings now owned by Sherwin-Williams Company, took over as the title sponsor in 2014. Four players have been multiple winners of this event, including K.J. Choi (2002, 2006), Retief Goosen (2003, 2009), Paul Casey (2018, 2019) and Sam Burns (2021, 2022). Other previous winners of the tournament include former major champions such as Jordan Spieth, Charl Schwartzel, Gary Woodland, Jim Furyk, Mark Calcavecchia and Vijay Singh.
The Field
The Valspar Championship field features 135 players, including nine of the OWGR top 25 players. In recent years, many top players have taken this week off, but some are electing to use this week as their tune-up for the Masters next month in lieu of the two Texas (San Antonio, Houston) events.
The low 65 and ties make the weekend cut for this $9.1 million purse event.
The Course
The Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club plays host this week to the Valspar Championship. The track is in Palm Harbor, Fla., about 22 miles north of downtown St. Petersburg and west of Tampa.
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) is a treelined, positional golf course located on the Pinellas Peninsula, only minutes from the Gulf of Mexico. It forces many layups off the tee and asks players to move the ball in both directions. It’s a shot-maker’s course with some significant elevation changes that will open the playing field to bombers and short plotters alike.
The 1974 Larry Packard design, with a 2015 redesign from Wadsworth Golf, is atypical of most Florida courses. The par-71 of 7,352 yards is tight off the tee (fourth narrowest fairways on tour — 26 yards on average) and encompasses tree-lined fairways, many elevation changes, dogleg holes and even double doglegs, a Packard specialty. Copperhead is the same length as TPC Sawgrass (par-72) for last week’s Players, but it is the longest par-71 played thus far this season.
Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course has more of a Carolina feel to it rather than a typical Florida layout. Water is in play on six of the 18 holes, and the course has 74 bunkers. There are five par-3s here, which is rare for a par-71 layout, four par-5s and nine par-4s.
The “Snake Pit” is the signature stretch of closing holes at holes 16-18. Pars are good scores all four days here. No Valspar winner in the history of the tournament has played the “Snake Pit” under par. The 16th hole is a long par-4 with an extremely narrow fairway and water on one side. Following that is the 215-yard, par-3 17th that has a tiny green surrounded by bunkers and trees on both sides. The stretch concludes with the par-4 18th, which has one of the most difficult elevated sloping greens anywhere.
Photo credit: Bobby Lewis, WTSP-TV 10 (CBS affiliate in St. Petersburg, Fla.)
The fairways and rough are a Ryegrass overseed. The green complexes were changed to TifEagle Bermudagrass in 2016. However, the Bermudagrass is more dormant in March than in late April. The slightly less than 6,000 average square-foot greens are mostly Poa Trivialis overseed with some Bermuda creeping through on average speed (12 stimpmeter) greens.
Three years ago, the course superintendents increased the ryegrass rough from three inches to 3.75 and moved the rough with an intermediate cut from 72 inches to 21 inches to bring the rough 51 inches closer to the greens. These changes definitely toughened the course as -10 and -12 have been the winning scores here in the last two years.
Correlated courses here include TPC Sawgrass, Harbour Town, Riviera, Colonial, CC Jackson, TPC Southwind, TPC River Highlands and TPC San Antonio.
Golf Stay and Plays, a golfing vacations concierge service, has a hole-by-hole video of the Copperhead Course
Weather
The AccuWeather forecast looks ideal with the wind being strongest on Thursday. There has been little rain in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area in the lead-up, so course conditions should be fairly firm and fast.
Valspar Championship Recent History/Winners
2025: Viktor Hovland (-11/273); 50-1
2024: Peter Malnati (-12/272); 300-1
2023: Taylor Moore (-10/274); 50-1
2022: Sam Burns (-17/267); 20-1*
2021: Sam Burns (-17/267); 70-1
2020: No Tournament (COVID-19)
2019: Paul Casey (-8/276); 25-1
2018: Paul Casey (-10/274); 25-1
2017: Adam Hadwin (-14/270); 125-1
2016: Charl Schwartzel (-8/276); 33-1*
2015: Jordan Spieth (-10/274); 16-1**
2014: John Senden (-7/277); 125-1
2013: Kevin Streelman (-10/274); 200-1
2012: Luke Donald (-13/271); 11-1***
2011: Gary Woodland (-15/269); 100-1
2010: Jim Furyk (-13/271); 30-1
Playoff win over Davis Riley – *
Playoff win over Bill Haas – **
Playoff win over Sean O’Hair and Patrick Reed – ***
Playoff win over SangMoon Bae, Jim Furyk and Robert Garrigus – ****
Valspar Championship Trends
- 16 of the last 18 winners had at least one previous top-10 finish that season before winning the Valspar Championship.
- 15 of the last 18 winners had played in at least two previous Valspar Championships.
- 13 of the last 18 winners had at least one previous career win.
Statistical Analysis
It is close to 30% more difficult than the average PGA Tour stop to gain strokes on approach. Here are the rankings for Strokes Gained: Approach for the recent winners of the Valspar during their winning weeks here at the Copperhead Course:
2025: Hovland +5.88 (6th)
2024: Malnati +2.84 (20th)
2023: Moore +5.12 (5th)
2022: Burns +7.00 (3rd)
2021: Burns +3.72 (14th)
2019: Casey +4.64 (7th)
2018: Casey +5.00 (7th)
2017: Hadwin +8.16 (2nd)
2016: Schwartzel +7.84 (3rd)
2015: Spieth +4.36 (12th)
Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Austin Smotherman 1.182
- Brooks Koepka 0.998
- David Ford 0.832
- Akshay Bhatia 0.792
- Zecheng Dou 0.723
- Matt Fitzpatrick 0.687
- Viktor Hovland 0.648
- Nicolai Højgaard 0.593
- Thorbjørn Olesen 0.582
- Xander Schauffele 0.542
- Ryo Hisatsune 0.515
- Ludvig Åberg 0.508
- Chandler Blanchet 0.505
- Corey Conners 0.498
- Rasmus Højgaard 0.480
- Jacob Bridgeman 0.469
- Sahith Theegala 0.444
Almost one-third of the approach shots will be longer irons from 200 yards or more.
Approach Proximity from > 200 Yards (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Chandler Blanchet 37′ 10″ (feet, inches from the hole)
- Jimmy Stanger 40′ 3″
- Thorbjørn Olesen 40′ 11″
- Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 42′ 3″
- Ludvig Åberg 42′ 7″
- Nicolai Højgaard 42′ 8″
- Michael Brennan 43′ 1″
- Garrick Higgo 43′ 5″
- Brooks Koepka 43′ 6″
- Karl Vilips 44′ 4″
- Neal Shipley 44′ 9″
- Rasmus Højgaard 45′ 2″
- Alex Smalley 45′ 4″
- Mark Hubbard 45′ 11″
- Dan Brown 46′ 8″
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart 46′ 11″
- Max Greyserman 46′ 11″
- Nick Taylor 46′ 11″
- Matt Fitzpatrick 47′ 0″
- Xander Schauffele 47′ 0″
Players only hit the fairways here around 56% of the time, even with keeping the driver in the bag most of the time. The best way to measure success off the tee here is to use Good Drives Percentage, which combines both off the tee and approach play since Innisbrook is a positional course where players will club down off the tee to hit as many of these narrow fairways as possible. It also takes into account a player’s ability to reach the green even when missing the fairway.
Good Drive Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Jimmy Stanger 91.43%
- Matt Fitzpatrick 87.66
- Tom Kim 86.39
- Lucas Glover 85.71
- Daniel Berger 85.46
- Austin Smotherman 85.29
- Max McGreevy 85.14
- Ryo Hisatsune 84.92
- Aaron Rai 84.92
- Adam Svensson 84.82
- Corey Conners 84.74
- Adrien Saddier 84.07
- Patrick Cantlay 84.03
- John Parry 84.03
- Xander Schauffele 84.01
- Johnny Keefer 83.61
- Alex Smalley 83.54
With thicker rough being moved to closer surroundings around the greens in 2023, the scrambling average decreased over the last three years.
Scrambling (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Kris Ventura 75.36%
- Nick Taylor 70.51
- Taylor Moore 69.92
- Nicolai Højgaard 69.83
- S.H. Kim 67.74
- Beau Hossler 67.44
- Viktor Hovland 67.18
- Sahith Theegala 67.03
- Justin Lower 66.67
- Xander Schauffele 66.40
- Patrick Cantlay 66.35
- Jordan Spieth 65.44
- Eric Cole 65.33
- Akshay Bhatia 65.22
- Davis Thompson 65.09
- Kevin Roy 65.08
- Taylor Pendrith 64.75
- Zach Bauchou 64.74
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart 64.41
Copperhead features the lowest Birdie or Better percentage of any course on the PGA Tour and players are grinding out pars and trying to avoid bogeys on the card.
Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Kris Ventura 10.10%
- Nick Taylor 10.12
- Blades Brown 11.11
- Nicolai Højgaard 11.11
- Jacob Bridgeman 11.31
- Patrick Cantlay 11.67
- Taylor Moore 11.67
- Davis Thompson 12.17
- Sahith Theegala 12.50
- Beau Hossler 12.59
- Xander Schauffele 12.63
- Jesper Svensson 12.63
- Akshay Bhatia 12.67
- John Parry 12.73
- David Ford 12.78
- Alex Smalley 13.03
- Viktor Hovland 13.06
- Austin Smotherman 13.06
The four par-5s are the easiest four holes on the course and players must take advantage of them.
Strokes Gained Par-5s — Average Per Round (Last 36 rounds)
- Nicolai Højgaard 0.225
- Adrian Dumont de Chassart 0.198
- Gary Woodland 0.184
- Pierceson Coody 0.171
- Mac Meissner 0.164
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.157
- Sahith Theegala 0.148
- Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 0.145
- Dylan Wu 0.143
- Rasmus Højgaard 0.135
- Matt Fitzpatrick 0.133
- Luke Clanton 0.133
- Kristoffer Reitan 0.133
- Doug Ghim 0.130
- John VanDerLaan 0.119
- John Parry 0.118
- S.H. Kim 0.118
- Matt Wallace 0.115
- Max McGreevy 0.110
- Neal Shipley 0.104
Three of the par-3s are 200 yards or longer and the other is just under that mark at 195.
Strokes Gained Par-3s 200-225 yards — Average Per Round (Last 36 rounds)
- Sahith Theegala 0.379
- Viktor Hovland 0.363
- Nicolai Højgaard 0.316
- Patrick Rodgers 0.315
- Nick Taylor 0.313
- Austin Smotherman 0.301
- Adam Svensson 0.284
- Davis Chatfield 0.264
- Neal Shipley 0.258
- Corey Conners 0.253
- Patton Kizzire 0.248
- Zac Blair 0.242
- Hank Lebioda 0.232
- Rasmus Højgaard 0.225
- Kensei Hirata 0.220
- Michael Brennan 0.214
- Max McGreevy 0.206
- Aaron Rai 0.203
The greens at Copperhead are Bermuda, but it is mostly dormant, so it is a Poa Triv overseed. Nevertheless, these are some of the smoothest greens on tour.
Here are the recent putting results for recent winners here at the Valspar:
2025: Hovland +7.36 (2nd)
2024: Malnati +8.32 (3rd)
2023: Moore +4.88 (9th)
2022: Burns +5.16 (8th)
2021: Burns +9.08 (3rd)
2019: Casey +0.40 (43rd) — 1st Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green that week
2018: Casey +3.44 (15th)
2017: Hadwin +6.88 (4th)
2016: Schwartzel +3.56 (12th)
2015: Spieth +3.12 (26th)
Strokes Gained Putting — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Jacob Bridgeman 1.409
- Kris Ventura 1.181
- Vince Whaley 0.990
- Matthieu Pavon 0.818
- Karl Vilips 0.768
- Akshay Bhatia 0.730
- Chad Ramey 0.708
- David Lipsky 0.687
- Patrick Fishburn 0.666
- Davis Riley 0.666
- Beau Hossler 0.631
- Peter Malnati 0.606
- Kevin Streelman 0.585
- Chandler Phillips 0.568
- Lee Hodges 0.551
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.550
- Nicolai Højgaard 0.549
- Matt McCarty 0.545
- Jordan Spieth 0.543
- Kevin Roy 0.510
- Blades Brown 0.502
Selections
Brooks Koepka (27-1, Circa Sports)
Koepka has been fighting his putter for basically the last two years, and this season is no exception, as he ranks No. 152 for Strokes Gained: Putting this season, although he was a bit better at The Players last weekend, where he finished T-13.
However, his irons have been sharp, and he ranks third on the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained: Approach and fifth for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green.
Now that he is back on the PGA Tour and the story of his return has died down a bit, Koepka looks to be getting some comfort and confidence back with finishes of 13th and ninth in his last two events.
Sahith Theegala (37-1, DraftKings)
Theegala was seventh on debut here at the Valspar in 2022.
He went without a top-10 finish all of last year, largely because of oblique and neck injuries, but already has three in 2026.
Theegala was lurking toward another top-10 but finished just T-32 last week because of a 40 on the Sunday back nine. Nonetheless, he looks like he is getting back to the form that had him as a top-15 OWGR-ranked player in the world at the end of 2024.
Nicolai Højgaard (38-1, Circa Sports)
With finishes of 24th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 27th last week at The Players, Nicolai has cooled a tad from his form of three top-6 finishes in four events. Nevertheless, he is currently showing no weakness in his game, whether it’s off the tee, approach, around the greens or putting.
He is 47th in the OWGR and in good shape for that Masters invitation next month, so now he should be able to focus on getting that first PGA Tour victory.
Ryo Hisatsune (42-1, DraftKings)
Hisatsune has started 2026 in hot form with a runner-up in the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines, top-10 finishes in Phoenix and Pebble Beach and a 13th last week at The Players.
The Japanese player is now No. 61 in the OWGR and looking to get into the top 50 for a Masters invite, and he has this week and next in Houston to accomplish that.
He has been 33rd (2024) and fourth (2025) here across two appearances.
Austin Smotherman (55-1, BetRivers)
Smotherman shared first-round leader honors (second time in three weeks) last week at The Players and finished T-13.
He was runner-up three weeks ago in the Cognizant Classic and eighth in the American Express.
He has made the cut at the Valspar both times but comes into this week No. 1 on the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained: Approach and looks to be a far better and more confident player now.
David Ford (125-1, BetMGM)
Rookie David Ford earned his PGA Tour card through the PGA Tour U points system and certainly noticed his two PGA Tour U predecessors — Ludvig Åberg and Michael Thorbjornsen — were last Sunday’s final pairing at The Players.
Ford won the Valspar Collegiate Invitational in Palm City, Fla. (3.5 hours away), last March.
He has recorded a couple of top-20 finishes already in 2026 and is one of the PGA Tour leaders for Strokes Gained: Approach.
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