VidantaWorld Mexico Open Best Bets and Golf Odds:
The Butterfield Bermuda Championship was shortened to a 54-hole event because of unplayable conditions from the strong winds. However, play did not end until Monday morning when 54-hole co-leaders Austin Smotherman and Seamus Power went to the par-3 16th and played it three times. Smotherman, a pre-tournament price of 33-1, won the playoff on the third playoff hole and won his second start in a row. Three weeks ago, Smotherman won his maiden PGA Tour event in his 100th start at the Bank of Utah Championship. This column had to settle for second again with Power. Smotherman locked himself into next season’s first two Signature events — AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Genesis Invitational — while Power locked up his full PGA Tour card for 2027.
As the 2026 PGA Tour season winds down, the tour begins a two-week stint in Mexico, first at VidantaWorld for the Mexico Open. The FedExCup Fall is still in the balance, with players trying to get into FedExCup spots 51-60, like Smotherman did, to earn entry into the Signature Events. Others are looking to finish inside the Top 100 to keep full PGA Tour status for 2027, like Power did last week.
None of that is of concern for U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark (12-1), who won three times this season and, at No. 5 OWGR, is one of only three top-50 players in this week’s field.
Tom Kim (+1800), who finished third to Clark at the U.S. Open, sits as second choice this week.
Doug Ghim (18-1) finished eighth here in 2024 and was the runner-up to Smotherman three weeks ago at the Bank of Utah Championship as he inches closer to his first PGA Tour victory. Also at 18-1 is Ben James, who has four top-5 finishes since turning professional in June, but did miss the cut last week in Bermuda.
After winning three times in 2025, including at the World Wide Technology Championship, which is next week’s event, Ben Griffin (20-1) is still looking for his first victory in 2026.
A trio priced at 28-1 includes John Keefer, who has five top-10 finishes, including two thirds, in his current rookie season on tour, Cotey Conners, who finished third last week and missed out on joining Monday’s playoff by one stroke; and Marco Penge, who currently ranks 53rd in the OWGR and is looking to get into the top 50 by year’s end, which earns exemptions into all four majors.
Three weeks ago, Blades Brown (33-1) finished runner-up in the Korn Ferry Tour Championship to finish ninth on the points list and therefore made history by becoming the youngest player to ever earn a PGA Tour card via the Korn Ferry Tour at 19 years, 4 months old.
Brian Campbell (225-1) won this event in a playoff last year in the spring of 2025 over Aldrich Potgieter (80-1), who we had tipped in this column. Campbell’s drive on the first playoff hole was headed toward the trees before he got an incredible bounce, and the ball ended up back in the fairway. Although he was almost 100 yards behind Aldrich Potgieter, he still had a shot. He ripped a fairway wood to wedge distance and rolled in a four-footer for birdie. When Potgieter missed a six-foot birdie attempt, Campbell had won.
Tony Finau (80-1) won this event in 2023 after finishing runner-up the year prior. Currently at No. 107 in the FedExCup Fall, Finau is one of the many players fighting to finish in the Top 100 in order to ensure full PGA Tour playing privileges in 2027.
The Event
The VidantaWorld Mexico Open was first played as the Mexican Open in 1944 at the Club de Golf Chapultepec. It was an event on the Tour de las Américas between 2003 and 2006 and was co-sanctioned by the European Challenge Tour from 2004 to 2006. Then, it became a Nationwide Tour event in 2008. In 2013, the tournament was moved to March and became an official event for PGA Tour Latinoamérica. The tournament would also be moved to Club de Golf Mexico.
In 2022, the tournament became an official event on the PGA Tour, awarding 500 FedEx Cup points to the winner, plus the normal perks for winning a PGA Tour event, including a two-year tour exemption, and invitations to the Masters, PGA Championship and the Players Championship.
The Field
120 players are in this week’s field playing for a $6 million purse and valuable FedExCup Fall points. As mentioned above, only three players in the OWGR Top 50 — Wyndham Clark (5), Ben Griffin (28) and Tom Kim (30) — are here this week.
The Course
Vidanta World is a golf destination in the town of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Set on the Pacific Coast, Grupo Vidanta, within its Vallarta resort complex, has several golf courses, the newest of which is the Norman Signature Course.
Designed by Greg Norman and opened in 2015, it is only accessible via the world’s longest golf cart suspension bridge. The course itself is set on the Ameca River, with a few holes running alongside. It is a resort course by nature, with the course seemingly flat, with plenty of lakes and ponds forming hazards around the setup. The layout features panoramic views of the Sierra Madre mountain range. This design is surrounded by trees, native grasses and jungle patches.
Vidanta Vallarta is a par-71 course that measures out to 7,337 yards, playing around 100 yards shorter this year, and players will see a rerouting and new design specifically focused on Nos. 4, 8, 17 and 18. The fourth was completely redesigned to a 423-yard par 4 from a 520-yard hole. Hole Nos. 18, 9, 1 and 10 are now situated in a single quadrant to improve fan experience, while No. 17 will feature a stadium-style build-out. No. 11 changed from a par-3 to a par-4 while No. 13 is now a drivable par-4 (changed from a par-3). No. 15 is also now a par-3 (changed from a par-4).
The fairways are the fifth widest on tour at 41 yards on average. The Paspalum rough has been grown out to 2.5 inches to provide more of a penalty for missing fairways.
The track is comprised of Paspalum throughout. Paspalum is a very common grass used on coastal courses that is known for being sticky. This means that drives will not roll out as much on the wide fairways and will stop much quicker on the greens. The 7,000-square-foot-average greens (10th largest on tour) should run around an average speed of 11.5 on the stimpmeter.
Bunkers are few (55), but water hazards are plentiful, with 12 water danger holes on the layout.
The length of the course plus the coastal winds are the primary defenses at Vidanta Vallarta, and the winds, especially in the later afternoon, can cause higher scores.
Correlated courses include TPC Craig Ranch, Coco Beach, Corales, TPC San Antonio, Congaree, and Plantation Course at Kapalua. Coco Beach (Puerto Rico Open) and Corales (Corales Puntacana Championship) are both resort-style courses that also feature Paspalum throughout their respective layouts. TPC San Antonio (Valero Texas Open) is another Norman design. TPC Craig Ranch (AT&T Byron Nelson) and Congaree (2021 Congaree Championship) are also courses that favored bombers with wide fairways and non-penal rough.
Weather
Rain is probable for the first two days of competition. Paspalum grass is soft anyway where the ball sticks to the playing surface, so the rain should make it even softer, making carry distance even more important.
Mexico Open Recent History/Winners
2025: Brian Campbell (-20/264); 250-1*
2024: Jake Knapp (-19/265); 50-1
2023: Tony Finau (-24/260); 8-1
2022: Jon Rahm (-17/267); 5-1
Playoff win over Aldrich Potgieter – *
Statistical Analysis
Jake Knapp led the field here two years ago for Strokes Gained: Approach on the way to his maiden PGA Tour victory and Brian Campbell was fourth in the category last year.
Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (Last 24 rounds)
- Corey Conners 0.91
- Blades Brown 0.85
- Tom Kim 0.82
- Jackson Suber 0.79
- Ben James 0.78
- Emiliano Grillo 0.75
- Joel Dahmen 0.72
- William Mouw 0.66
- Luke Clanton 0.65
- Davis Chatfield 0.62
- Billy Horschel 0.61
- Trace Crowe 0.57
- Zac Blair 0.53
- Ben Griffin 0.53
- David Ford 0.48
- Kevin Roy 0.48
- Kris Ventura 0.47
- Aaron Wise 0.44
- Doug Ghim 0.44
- Paul Peterson 0.43
A plurality (around low 40%) of the approach shots into these greens will be from 200 yards and out.
Average Proximity Toward the Hole — Approaches 200+ Yards (2025 PGA TOUR season)
- Isaiah Salinda 37′ 1″ (feet, inches)
- Jackson Suber 39′ 6″
- Neal Shipley 43′ 0″
- Rico Hoey 43′ 1″
- Trace Crowe 43′ 4″
- Adrien Dumont De Chassart 44′ 2″
- Kevin Roy 45′ 2″
- Taylor Pendrith 45′ 6″
- Kris Ventura 45′ 9″
- Doug Ghim 46′ 1″
- Joel Dahmen 46′ 8″
- William Mouw 46′ 9″
- Harry Higgs 46′ 9″
- Davis Chatfield 47′ 2″
- Ben James 47′ 5″
- Blades Brown 47′ 6″
- David Skinns 47′ 7″
- Paul Peterson 47′ 7″
- Lee Hodges 47′ 8″
- Ben Martin 48′ 0″
Vidanta Vallarta has some of the widest fairways on the PGA Tour, so you can “grip it and rip it” here off the tee.
Average Driving Distance (Last 24 rounds)
- Aldrich Potgieter 308.7
- Marco Penge 308.3
- Johnny Keefer 306.7
- Jesper Svensson 306.4
- Gordon Sargent 305.7
- Rasmus Højgaard 305.1
- Pontus Nyholm 304.5
- Ryder Cowan 303.7
- Pierceson Coody 302.9
- Sudarshan Yellamaraju 302.8
- Christo Lamprecht 302.7
- Neal Shipley 302.3
- Jimmy Stanger 302.2
- Wyndham Clark 302.0
- Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 301.8
- Steven Fisk 301.8
- Isaiah Salinda 301.6
- Doug Ghim 301.5
- Haotong Li 301.5
- Alejandro Tosti 300.9
Paspalum fairways are slower and have very little runout, so Carry Distance measures the distance from tee to the point of ground impact where a valid radar measurement is taken.
Carry Distance (Last 24 rounds)
- Aldrich Potgieter 320.5
- Johnny Keefer 311.8
- Jesper Svensson 310.8
- Gordon Sargent 310.6
- Rasmus Højgaard 309.4
- Pontus Nyholm 307.1
- Davis Riley 303.5
- Taylor Pendrith 302.9
- Cam Davis 302.6
- Steven Fisk 301.6
- Wyndham Clark 301.3
- Kris Ventura 301.2
- Trace Crowe 301.1
- Rico Hoey 301.0
- Jimmy Stanger 300.8
- Ben Griffin 300.1
- Pierceson Coody 299.8
- Hayden Springer 299.6
- Tony Finau 299.4
- Jackson Suber 298.6
Vidanta Vallarta has proven not to be a complete pushover due to the Paspalum surface, which is not regularly featured on the PGA Tour, plus the winds can blow hard here. Birdies are not complete gimmes here.
Birdie Or Better Percentage (Last 24 rounds)
- Zach Bauchou 29.4%
- Ben James 29.2
- David Ford 29.0
- Doug Ghim 28.9
- Kihei Akina 28.3
- Rico Hoey 28.2
- Hayden Springer 28.0
- Gordon Sargent 28.0
- Isaiah Salinda 27.8
- Billy Horschel 27.8
- Kevin Yu 27.3
- Mackenzie Hughes 27.1
- Kevin Roy 27.1
- A.J. Ewart 26.6
- Jackson Suber 26.6
- Justin Lower 26.4
- Davis Chatfield 26.2
- Zac Blair 26.2
- Blades Brown 26.0
- Tyler Duncan 25.9
There are five par-3s (one more than typical) and two of them are over 225 yards.
Strokes Gained: Par-3s 225+ Yards — Average Per Round (Last 24 rounds)
- Lee Hodges 0.38
- Wyndham Clark 0.30
- Kevin Streelman 0.27
- Jimmy Stanger 0.27
- Hayden Springer 0.25
- Blades Brown 0.25
- Ben Martin 0.24
- Marco Penge 0.23
- Max Homa 0.20
- Johnny Keefer 0.20
- John Parry 0.19
- Rafael Campos 0.19
- Denny McCarthy 0.19
- Doug Ghim 0.19
- Pontus Nyholm 0.19
- Steven Fisk 0.18
- Garrick Higgo 0.18
- Max McGreevy 0.18
- Marcelo Rozo 0.18
- Harry Hall 0.17
Selections
Marco Penge (30-1, DraftKings)
Penge missed nearly two months of action from May to July with a shoulder injury. Since returning, he has three top-10 finishes and three other top-20 finishes.
Currently at No. 53 in the OWGR, Penge is just three spots outside of the top 50, which would get him exempt into all the majors next season.
Keep in mind that he won three times last season on the DP World Tour, and the Englishman is second in this field for Driving Distance, so this is as good a place as any to get back on track.
Blades Brown (35-1, Caesars Sportsbook)
Unlike most players in this field, young Blades Brown does not have to worry about points for his PGA Tour card in 2027 because he already has it courtesy of his top-10 finish on the Korn Ferry Tour points list.
Now he can just concern himself with winning, something that he has yet to do as a professional, but he has come close three times with two runners-up and two thirds. One of those runners-up was at PGA Riviera Maya in Mexico on the Paspalum in a Korn Ferry Tour event. The other was a T-3 at the Puerto Rico Open also on the Paspalum.
Brown ranks second in this field over the last 24 rounds for Strokes Gained: Approach and iron play is even more important this week with expected rainy conditions and the ball sticking to the Paspalum even more.
Zach Bauchou (48-1, DraftKings)
Bauchou is currently 77th in the FedExCup, so it is a successful season for the tour rookie to return next season.
However, he has started to play his best and most consistent golf of the season here in the fall with a 14-24-13-9 form line leading in his last four events.
He also had a T-9 earlier in the season on the Paspalum at the Corales Puntacana Championship.
Aldrich Potgieter (90-1, Fanatics)
Having been on him here last year, I am prepared for more pain as this is the guy who should have won the tournament last year.
This time around, he is not exactly in stellar form, having made only three of his last 10 cuts dating to early June.
Nevertheless, this is a good place for him to come when he is struggling and, in his runner-up finish last year, the longest hitter in the game proved that he was an ideal fit for this track.
Gordon Sargent (94-1, DraftKings)
The former NCAA Division I champion (2022) has not exactly lit the world on fire since earning his PGA Tour card late last year. He is just No. 133 in the FedExCup Fall and needs a strong finish to keep provisional status (101-125) and stay on the tour part time.
Sargent has played well in his brief experience on Paspalum, finishing T-8 at the Puerto Rico Open and T-2 at the Corales Puntacana Championship, his lone top-10 finishes of the season.
He fits the profile of previous, long-driving hitters (Rahm, Finau, Knapp) winning here at Vidanta Vallarta.
Zac Blair (110-1, Circa Sports)
Blair is No. 119 in the FedExCup Fall and has provisional status for next season but can still rise into the top 100 with three strong finishes to the season.
He was T-13 at the Riviera Maya Championship and T-9 at the Puerto Rico Open, both on Paspalum, and the finish in Puerto Rico was one of five top-10 finishes across the PGA and Korn Ferry Tours this year.
Isaiah Salinda (125-1, DraftKings)
Salinda is No. 175 in the points because he took six months away from the game for a mental health and physical reset.
He returned last month in the Biltmore Championship at Asheville and has made two of three cuts, including a T-11 last week in Bermuda, which was his best finish since right here last year when he was outright third.
Placement market, matchup, and/or other futures bets will be up Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks.
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