Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Scott Ehlers handicaps the Thursday, October 29 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 9.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Social Belle (9th Race)
Ninth Race
1. Social Belle
2. Mobula
3. Grade A
SOCIAL BELLE had improved her Beyer speed figure in every race until her return start at Keeneland. Breaking 10th of 12 cost her everything, even if she still passed a few home. Win rider returns in Rodriguez. We like that connections keep the faith for a second grass start. Race flow is more than fair. MOBULA goes from one top barn to another. This hard-trying filly is bred to love a turf sprint with Tommies of 360/402. This filly draws outside main pace foes. GRADE A might be a horse for course before anyone knows it. She ran 3rd, beaten only by a neck in her local sod debut and did so at 18-1. She was denied a clean start in her second try and then didn’t care for two turns in her third. She can fire fresh and has some solid works.
Here are Scott’s thoughts on the other nine races on Thursday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Mr. Tallymon
2. Quentin B
3. Bright Skittle
MR. TALLYMON is by a 21% debut sire (nice). His dam was un-raced. One of two sibs won and is 7-1-2-1 while banking 57K. Works are well spaced all for a barn that is 21% with their debut maidens. A weight break rounds out the appeal. QUENTIN B showed promise at Gulfstream and was thought enough of to ship here. Sure he faltered in his local debut but notice that he got some play when sent off at 3-1. Second time on this surface could make all the difference. BRIGHT SKITTLE has speed and draws outside for possibly the best trip. Main pace foe is stuck on the rail. A beaten favorite in three of five starts is the main knock. BEMIS exits a key race where 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 78 and 56 (another finished 2nd with a 55 Beyer).
Second Race
1. Spencerian
2. Taqdeer
3. Musical Prayer
SPENCERIAN does get some pace to chase. New barn is 14% off the claim. This mare cuts back a full furlong, and we are betting that six panels is her best distance. Would a 77 Beyer win this? The par is 73 for this level. This 6YO won easy five back and did so going this distance at Laurel all while passing foes. That is the trip we want. TAQDEER is the outside speed. She just got a nice confidence boost over at Penn National. She has yet to run poorly on this dirt. Team Jacobson is 18% with their repeating winners. Oh, she exits a key race where 2 of 2 returned to win with figs of 63 and 55. MUSICAL PRAYER was a step slow in her most recent all while reunited with team Asmussen. Can this mare stalk? Any chance she is quickest? A good break is first and foremost. Recent works are well spaced.
Third Race
1. Reza
2. Ruiva
3. Cactus Closer
REZA is by a 0 for 2 debut turf sire. His dam never tried the grass nor did lone sibling. Horses that like the synth down at Gulfstream often like the grass anywhere. This gelding sure looked good in his debut and we like that connections shipped here to run for more money. Team Moubarak are 21% with their first turfers and they show a big flat bet profit. RUIVA has never run poorly. Hers are the best figs and foes. Other speed is a worry but good horses often find a way. Cross entered for BC day so who knows if she opts for this. CACTUS CLOSER pushed the pace in his first two starts and then passed runners in his most recent. Who doesn’t like versatile runners? He draws ideally and cuts back a half furlong. That distance Tomlinson of 404 screams short sprint. NESSY is by an 18% debut turf sire. His dam was un-raced and this is her first grass foal.
Fourth Race
1. Getting After It
2. Mustang Lady
3. Watershed Moment
GETTING AFTER IT returns to two turns and perhaps for the best. Her previous two routes came before the long layoff, and we have excuses for both. The first was versus stakes foes at Turfway, and she was only 3 1/2 lengths back with a furlong to go before she spit the bit. She caught a sloppy Joe surface in her second route at Keeneland. Her last two starts were a tad better so now is a good time to stretch-out. MUSTANG LADY loves to settle for less. Team Asmussen re-claimed this horse last out and for more than what they lost her for. When last seen going two turns, this mare finished second at 5-1 and did so here. WATERSHED MOMENT took twelve starts to break her maiden. What if she got a taste of winning and liked it? These types often return to outrun their odds. An early breather would go a long way.
Fifth Race
1. Big Luz
2. Boss Lady Kar
3. Texas Dandelion
BIG LUZ is an Indiana-bred that opts for this class drop rather than ship to Horseshoe Indy and face state-breds. Doesn’t that say everything? Team McPeek are 18% with their second-time maidens and 16% going special weight to maiden claimer. Two of four sibs beat winners and earned 251K and 105K. BOSS LADY KAR ran well in both starts to date even though they were two turns on the sod at Horseshoe Indy. That last race came back key when 2 of 4 returned to win with figs of 45 and 56. We bet a one turn mile is a good fit. TEXAS DANDELION did run quite well in her first two starts and both came here. Toga foes are tough three back. Was 7 1/2 furlongs too far off the bench? Class drop for hot barn could be all she wrote. HIGHER CALLING is by a 0 for 51 debut sire. Her dam went 17-1-4-2 and earned 29K. Both sibs raced and are winless. DREAM ABOUT exits a key common race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 37 and 59 (another finished 2nd with a 56 Beyer).
Sixth Race
1. Paseo
2. Charm of Venice
3. Struck at Midnight
PASEO just ran a Beyer top and did so going longer on the grass. Connections find a similar spot today. Race flow isn’t fast but it isn’t pace-less either. This filly ran great the last time she tried this sod and that was 9 furlongs off a layoff. CHARM OF VENICE ran better when second time in the U.S. and now strings three races together for the first time. Gaffalione is a good fit for this horse, while two recent works are just right. STRUCK AT MIDNIGHT has some tactical speed at least in this race. She gets to save all the early ground all with Mr. Ortiz up (24% for team Sharp). Yet to run this far is a small X factor. We spy at least three works since her last race and you have to like that.
Seventh Race
1. Guardian
2. White Whale
3. Stay for the Boom
GUARDIAN might prove quickest in here, and if so, then an early breather is in play. He has gotten the lead at the first call in his last five starts. That was a solid effort last out, and it was his first for team Foster. This gelding cuts back two furlongs but we still think he is quickest. WHITE WHALE is 2 for 8 here and 0 for 11 anywhere else. He got a nice confidence boost last out all for a barn that is 24% with their repeating winners. STAY FOR THE BOOM did beat over half the field home previously and that was his first start locally. Some of those SoCal sprints fit. Check out those fast recent works. An early tote check could prove fortuitous.
Eighth Race
1. Positano John
2. We Be Mischief
3. Alworth
POSITANO JOHN is by a 11% debut sire. His dam was un-raced. Two of three siblings won and both beat winners (66K and 63K). Works are very nice, including that October 9th drill where this colt was 2nd best of 27. Was that bullet work on October 16th even better? Does team Bauer have this guy right where they want him, hence that recent work which wasn’t as quick? Seven panels is tough in a debut but at least this guy draws best with the attack post on his resume. WE BE MISCHIEF broke sharp in his debut and then ran great. This gelding didn’t cost 575K for nothing. ALWORTH has speed, and there isn’t much proven zip in here. He draws more outside today and did just miss going this distance previously. COWBOYS TIME is by a 16% debut sire. His dam was un-raced. One of three sibs won but only once. NAVIGATE exits a key race where 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 77 and 73 (another pair finished 2nd with Beyer speed figures of 74 and 71).
Tenth Race
1. Wavefront
2. Elvis Tony
3. Mayweather
WAVEFRONT is by a 11% debut sire. His dam went 21-2-3-5 and earned 83K. Lone sibling is 12-4-1-2 and earned 103K. We love that Jose takes the call (30% for this barn). Louisiana Downs works will help the price. Connections could have opted for a debut there versus much easier but opt for this. ELVIS TONY broke 8th of 9 in his debut while getting little tote play. Class drop makes perfect sense. Lone sibling is 2-0-1-0 and earned $18,400. MAYWEATHER missed a Beyer top by a single point in lone local start (2nd at 3-1). Form cycle hints at better as he puts three races tougher. Tactical speed comes in handy as there isn’t much zip in here.
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