Wells Fargo Championship Best Bets and Golf Odds

Wells Fargo Championship 

Taylor Pendrith earned his first PGA Tour victory Sunday at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson in Dallas. He seemed to be in control for the entire final round yet found himself trailing by a stroke heading to the 72nd hole. Ben Kohles, the 2023 Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year, who was 400-1 to win, birdied the 17th to take a one-stroke lead. Then, after chunking a pitch shot near the green, Kohles carded a bogey on 18, where no other player had scored over par all day. Pendrith’s birdie on the par-5 18th was enough for a two-shot swing and the victory. The Canadian was 90-1 to win and both he and Kohles qualified for this week’s signature event at the Wells Fargo Championship. 

The week before next week’s PGA Championship will provide a great test and tune-up for the year’s second major championship this year at the Wells Fargo in Charlotte, N.C. Forty-four of the top 50 players in the OWGR will be in Charlotte this week. That list does not include World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who will welcome his first child into the world any day now. 

Rory McIlroy (8-1) is a three-time winner (2010, 2015, 2021) here at Quail Hollow Golf Club and is off a victory two weeks ago at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with partner Shane Lowry (70-1). 

Xander Schauffele (10-1) was the runner-up here last year to Wyndham Clark (18-1), who earned his first PGA Tour victory at the Wells Fargo before winning the U.S. Open the following month. 

Ludvig Åberg (12-1) was to make his debut this week at the Wells Fargo but withdrew on Monday. 

Patrick Cantlay (22-1), Collin Morikawa (25-1), 2019 and 2022 Wells Fargo champion Max Homa (25-1), Tommy Fleetwood (28-1) and Viktor Hovland (28-1) comprise the second group of the market. 

Other former champions at Quail Hollow in this week’s field include Justin Thomas (33-1), who won his first major championship at the 2017 PGA Championship on this course, 2019 Wells Fargo winner Jason Day (50-1), 2017 winner Brian Harman (50-1), 2012 winner Rickie Fowler (70-1) and 2011 winner Lucas Glover (110-1). 

The Event

The Wells Fargo Championship has annually attracted one of the better fields on the PGA Tour since its inception as the Wachovia Championship in 2003. Wells Fargo acquired financial services company Wachovia in 2008 and has held the sponsorship of this tournament ever since. Its current agreement runs through 2024.

It has been held at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte each year since the beginning except for 2017 when Quail Hollow hosted the PGA Championship and the Wells Fargo moved to Eagle Point Golf Club in nearby Wilmington and last year when the event was held at TPC Potomac because of Quail Hollow hosting the Presidents Cup.

The event’s charitable beneficiary is the non-profit organization Teach for America and the tournament is organized by Champions for Education, Inc.

Previous event winners include a who’s who of golf, including Vijay Singh (2005), Jim Furyk (2006), Tiger Woods (2007), Rory McIlroy (2010, 2015), Rickie Fowler (2012) and Jason Day (2018).

Last year, the Wells Fargo became one of the PGA Tour’s “signature events” and the overall tournament purse has risen from $9.3 million to $20 million.

The Field

The 69-player field at this week’s Wells Fargo Championship is as follows:

Note: The + designates a sponsor exemption to gain entry into this week’s field. 

Field Update:

• Ludvig Åberg W/D from the field on Monday citing a knee injury. 

The Course

Quail Hollow Club, built on land that was once the largest dairy farm in North Carolina, was founded as a private-member club in 1959 by James J. Harris and the course was designed in 1961 by George Cobb, who is most famous for designing the par-3 course at Augusta National Golf Club. It hosted the Kemper Open on the PGA Tour from 1969 through 1979, followed by the PGA Tour Champions’ Paine Webber Invitational from 1983 through 1989. Quail Hollow also hosted the 2017 PGA Championship and 2022 Presidents Cup. 

The layout has undergone several renovations under the auspices of Tom Fazio in 1997, 2003, 2012 and 2016. For the 2016 renovation leading into the 2017 PGA, Fazio changed the layout to a par-71 of 7,521 yards for tournament golf, but it still plays as a par-72 for the members.

This year’s layout is a par-71 of 7,558 yards. Since the renovations, the course is the third-longest on the PGA Tour and played as the fifth-toughest (+0.85) last year.

Aside from the par-5s, there are four par-4s at 490 yards or longer, so Quail Hollow is a big, long course. 

The fairways run at a 33.5-yard average width (16th narrowest on tour) and are comprised of Bermudagrass with Ryegrass overseed (about a 50/50 split) as is the rough that will measure just two inches.

The renovations also entailed a changing of greens surfaces from MiniVerde Bermudagrass to Champion Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis. Similar greens can be found at Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship), TPC Southwind (WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational) and the Country Club of Jackson (Sanderson Farms Championship). The greens will be fast, running at 12-13 on the stimpmeter and measure out to an average size of 6,578 square feet (17th largest of 44 courses on tour). A SubAir system below the greens firms them up to play tougher on the weekend.

While the layout is fairly straightforward without many tricks or notable characteristics, Quail Hollow’s closing sequence (holes 16-18) is known as “The Green Mile,” which averages +0.27 over par. This stretch, one of the most difficult on the PGA Tour, includes the course’s signature hole, the par-3 17th, which requires a tee shot over a large pond to a green protected by bunkers on either side. Shots can frequently find the water over this stretch. In fact, more than 1,700 of them have found the drink over the last 20 years. 

There are 61 big bunkers on the course that mostly protect the greens, and water is in play on six holes. Even with all the renovations, Quail Hollow is a typical Carolina, tree-lined design.

The three par-5s (Holes 7, 10 and 15) plus the two short par-4s (8 and 14) are the scoreable holes. 

In terms of course correlations, Torrey Pines South, Bay Hill, Muirfield Village, Memorial Park, Riviera, Winged Foot, Southern Hills, and Bethpage Black are among the classical designs that have crossover to Quail Hollow.

Other Tom Fazio designs that have been featured on the PGA Tour:

Atunyote GC — 2007-10 Turning Stone Championship

Conway Farms GC — 2013, 2015, 2017 BMW Championship

Corales GC — Corales Championship

Eagle Point — 2017 Wells Fargo Championship

Raptor Course Greyhawk GC — 2008/09 Fry’s.com Open

Shadow Creek Golf Course — 2020 CJ Cup

Fazio has also had redesign input into:

Merion — 2013 U.S. Open

Oakmont — 2016 U.S. Open

Seaside Course at Sea Island — RSM Classic

Recent History/Winners

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19/265); 75-1

2022: Max Homa (-8/272); 40-1*

2021: Rory McIlroy (-10/274); 18-1

2020: Cancelled due to COVID-19.

2019: Max Homa (-15/269); 500-1

2018: Jason Day (-12/272); 20-1

2017: Justin Thomas (-8/276); 35-1**

2017: Brian Harman (-10/278); 80-1***

2016: James Hahn (-9/279); 500-1****

2015: Rory McIlroy (-21/267); 7-2

2014: J.B. Holmes (-14/274); 66-1

2013: Derek Ernst (-8/280); 500-1*****

2012: Rickie Fowler (-14/274); 50-1******

2011: Lucas Glover (-15/273); 110-1*******

2010: Rory McIlroy (-15/273); 66-1

Held at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm – *

2017 PGA Championship – **

Held at Eagle Point Golf Club – ***

Playoff win over Roberto Castro – ****

Playoff win over David Lynn – *****

Playoff win over Rory McIlroy & D.A. Points – ******

Playoff win over Jonathan Byrd – *******

Statistical Analysis

On approach, Quail Hollow ranks as the 11th-toughest yearly course on the PGA Tour in which to gain strokes. The average Greens in Regulation (GIR) rate is 61%, well below the tour average of 66%. 

Clark was rated first in the field during his winning week here last year. 

Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 36 rounds)

1. Tom Hoge 43
2. Corey Conners 31
3. Tony Finau 26.2
4. Jake Knapp 24.8
5. Shane Lowry 24.5
6. Akshay Bhatia 23.6
7. Lucas Glover 23.2
8. Xander Schauffele 23.2
9. Justin Thomas 23.2
10. Si Woo Kim 21.5
11. Will Zalatoris 20.8
12. Austin Eckroat 18.1
13. Nick Taylor 17.7
14. Hideki Matsuyama 17
15. Cameron Young 16
16. Alex Noren 15.9
17. Sahith Theegala 15.8

Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 24 rounds)

1. Tom Hoge 24.6
2. Corey Conners 24
3. Austin Eckroat 21.2
4. Shane Lowry 20.4
5. Akshay Bhatia 19.9
6. Justin Thomas 18.2
7. Tony Finau 18
8. Hideki Matsuyama 16.2
9. Cameron Young 15.8
10. Will Zalatoris 15.7
11. Si Woo Kim 15.4
12. Jake Knapp 15.2
13. Lucas Glover 14.5
14. Wyndham Clark 13.3
15. Matthieu Pavon 13.3
16. Nick Taylor 12.6
17. Andrew Putnam 12.3
18. Sahith Theegala 12.2

Driving Distance has proven to be a strong indicator here all but one winner since 2014 has ranked in the top 15 in Driving Distance in their last 36 rounds leading into the tournament.

Driving Distance (2024 PGA Tour season to date)

1. Rory McIlroy 314.2
2. Byeong Hun An 312.5
3. Wyndham Clark 312.2
4. Taylor Pendrith 310.6
5. Gary Woodland 308.9
6. Stephan Jaeger 308.4
7. Jake Knapp 307
8. Tony Finau 306.2
9. Justin Thomas 305.9
10. Patrick Rodgers 304.9
11. Kurt Kitayama 303.8
12. Xander Schauffele 303.2
13. Adam Scott 302.8
14. Jordan Spieth 302.7
15. Sahith Theegala 302.5
16. Sam Burns 302.3
17. Jason Day 302.1
18. Nick Dunlap 302
19. Grayson Murray 301.6
20. Cameron Young 300.9
21. Adam Schenk 300.5
22. Matt Fitzpatrick 300.3
23. Taylor Moore 300.2

55% of the approach shots here at Quail Hollow will come from 175 yards out or longer. 

Proximity Gained 175-200 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Austin Eckroat 13.84
2. Cameron Young 12.73
3. Eric Cole 12.27
4. Will Zalatoris 11.77
5. Matt Fitzpatrick 10.18
6. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 9.1
7. Collin Morikawa 8.06
8. Adam Svensson 7.49
9. Byeong Hun An 7.4
10. Viktor Hovland 7.19
11. Tom Hoge 7.16
12. J.T. Poston 6.99
13. Max Homa 5.84
14. Corey Conners 5.66
15. Taylor Pendrith 5.5
16. Jake Knapp 5.4
17. Kurt Kitayama 4.43
18. Sam Burns 4.34
19. Gary Woodland 4.13
20. Tom Kim 4.11

Proximity Gained 200+ Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Xander Schauffele 24.75
2. Corey Conners 21.54
3. Tom Hoge 21.23
4. Tony Finau 21.21
5. Patrick Cantlay 13.1
6. Byeong Hun An 12.47
7. Hideki Matsuyama 11.31
8. Lucas Glover 11.02
9. Jake Knapp 10.98
10. Gary Woodland 10.9
11. Kurt Kitayama 10.84
12. Matt Fitzpatrick 10.54
13. Grayson Murray 10.27
14. Will Zalatoris 10.14
15. Akshay Bhatia 9.39
16. Rory McIlroy 8.91
17. Tom Kim 8.61
18. Keegan Bradley 8.61
19. Adam Schenk 8.25

Note: Average Feet Gained Toward the Hole from the Shot Distance. 

While the tee to green is fairly straightforward at Quail Hollow, the green complexes are tricky. There are some shaved runoff areas and false fronts that can make chipping and pitching around the greens difficult. Scrambling will be important here. Here are the Scrambling rankings for the last four winners here during their victorious weeks at Quail Hollow:

2023: Clark — 2nd

2021: McIlroy — 1st

2019: Homa — 2nd

2018: Day — 2nd

Scrambling Gained (Last 36 rounds)

1. Denny McCarthy 27
2. Alex Noren 17
3. Mackenzie Hughes 16.4
4. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 11.8
5. Peter Malnati 11.6
6. Eric Cole 11.1
7. Brendon Todd 11.1
8. Justin Rose 11
9. Sam Burns 10.4
10. Jake Knapp 10.4
11. Russell Henley 10.3
12. Xander Schauffele 8.9
13. Billy Horschel 8.3
14. Andrew Putnam 7.8
15. Seamus Power 6.7
16. Justin Thomas 6.5
17. Wyndham Clark 6.5
18. Matt Kuchar 6.2
19. Hideki Matsuyama 6.2

Quail Hollow ranks as the sixth-toughest course on the PGA Tour in which to gain strokes putting.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Last 36 rounds)

1. Sahith Theegala 26
2. Denny McCarthy 25.8
3. Wyndham Clark 24
4. Peter Malnati 22.8
5. Brian Harman 21.4
6. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 20.9
7. Billy Horschel 20.7
8. Adam Scott 19.9
9. Nick Taylor 18.8
10. Emiliano Grillo 16.8
11. Brendon Todd 16.4
12. Xander Schauffele 15.5
13. Harris English 15.5
14. Sam Burns 15.3
15. Matt Fitzpatrick 15.1
16. J.T. Poston 14.6
17. Alex Noren 13.3
18. Mackenzie Hughes 13.2
19. Eric Cole 12.1

Strokes Gained: Putting (Last 24 rounds)

1. Wyndham Clark 21.4
2. Peter Malnati 19
3. Sahith Theegala 18
4. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 17.8
5. Denny McCarthy 17.5
6. Mackenzie Hughes 15.8
7. Matt Fitzpatrick 15.6
8. Taylor Pendrith 15.4
9. Billy Horschel 13.8
10. Jason Day 13.6
11. Nick Taylor 12.8
12. Viktor Hovland 11.7
13. Brian Harman 10
14. Adam Scott 9.8
15. Brendon Todd 9.6
16. Sam Burns 9.5
17. Matthieu Pavon 9.4
18. Xander Schauffele 9.3
19. Russell Henley 9.1

The three-putt rate at Quail Hollow is one of the highest on the PGA Tour at 3.95%.

Three-Putt Avoidance (Last 36 rounds)

1. Matt Kuchar 10
2. Russell Henley 9.6
3. Xander Schauffele 9.1
4. Brian Harman 7.5
5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 6.9
6. Andrew Putnam 6.4
7. Lee Hodges 6.2
8. Adam Hadwin 6.1
9. Viktor Hovland 6
10. Adam Scott 6
11. Kurt Kitayama 5.3
12. Si Woo Kim 5
13. Austin Eckroat 4.9
14. Sam Burns 4.7
15. Tommy Fleetwood 4.6
16. Wyndham Clark 4.6
17. Jordan Spieth 4.6
18. Taylor Pendrith 4.4
19. Sahith Theegala 4.1
20. Mackenzie Hughes 4.1
21. Justin Thomas 4
22. Patrick Cantlay 4

Players can score on the par-5s and short par-4s, but the other 13 holes are very difficult and some potential big numbers on the scorecards can happen there. 

Bogey Avoidance (Last 36 rounds)

1. Xander Schauffele 32.7
2. Alex Noren 29.9
3. Denny McCarthy 22.9
4. Billy Horschel 21.2
5. Justin Thomas 17.9
6. Sam Burns 17.6
7. Andrew Putnam 17.4
8. Taylor Pendrith 17.2
9. Rory McIlroy 17.1
10. Sahith Theegala 17.1
11. Tom Hoge 17
12. Hideki Matsuyama 16.1
13. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 15.3
14. Max Homa 14.8
15. Si Woo Kim 14.8
16. Wyndham Clark 14.5
17. Matt Kuchar 14.4
18. Akshay Bhatia 13.7
19. Collin Morikawa 13.5
20. Tommy Fleetwood 13.5
21. Jason Day 13.2
22. Mackenzie Hughes 13.1

The par-5s are must-birdie holes to stay in contention this week.

Strokes Gained Par-5s (Last 36 rounds)

1. Justin Thomas 23.3
2. Tony Finau 19.4
3. Patrick Cantlay 17.9
4. Xander Schauffele 17
5. Nick Dunlap 16.8
6. Will Zalatoris 16.3
7. Adam Scott 16.2
8. Mackenzie Hughes 15.5
9. Alex Noren 15.1
10. Wyndham Clark 14.3
11. Hideki Matsuyama 14.3
12. Matt Fitzpatrick 13.4
13. Shane Lowry 12.6
14. Kevin Tway 12.5
15. Stephan Jaeger 12.4
16. Sahith Theegala 12.1
17. Akshay Bhatia 11.7
18. Taylor Pendrith 11.3

Seven of the 11 par-4s measure 450-500 yards. 

Strokes Gained Par-4s 450-500 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Viktor Hovland 36.4
2. Hideki Matsuyama 23.9
3. Akshay Bhatia 19.4
4. Xander Schauffele 19.3
5. Rory McIlroy 19.2
6. Patrick Cantlay 17.5
7. Wyndham Clark 15.8
8. Collin Morikawa 14.3
9. Tony Finau 14
10. Stephan Jaeger 13.8
11. Tom Hoge 11.6
12. Alex Noren 10.9
13. Russell Henley 10.7
14. Mackenzie Hughes 10.2
15. Brendon Todd 9
16. Matthieu Pavon 8.7
17. Kurt Kitayama 8.4
18. Shane Lowry 8.3
19. Nick Taylor 8.1
20. Ben Kohles 8.1

Finally, it is fair to examine recent history on long and difficult scoring conditions. 

Strokes Gained: Total — Long (>7,400 yards) and Difficult Courses (Last 36 rounds)

1. Rory McIlroy 73.6
2. Xander Schauffele 69.8
3. Will Zalatoris 63.3 (34 rounds)
4. Viktor Hovland 59.7 (35 rounds)
5. Hideki Matsuyama 51.6
6. Justin Thomas 43.5
7. Justin Rose 43.4
8. Keegan Bradley 39.7
9. Jason Day 39.3
10. Tommy Fleetwood 37.6
11. Sungjae Im 37.5
12. Matt Kuchar 37.4
13. Max Homa 37.3
14. Si Woo Kim 37.1
15. Collin Morikawa 36.7 (26 rounds)
16. Corey Conners 36.6
17. Patrick Cantlay 36.5
18. Webb Simpson 36.4

Selections

Justin Thomas (28-1, Bet Rivers)

Thomas looked like he was trending toward better form to begin 2024, then he split with caddie Jim “Bones” Mackay and picked up Matt Minister, Patrick Cantlay’s old caddie.

The first go-around with the new combo did not go well as JT missed the cut at the Masters. However, he rebounded at Hilton Head to post a fifth, closing out with a Sunday 65.

Despite an erratic 2024, Thomas has five top-12 finishes, including three top-six, in 10 starts this year.

He also has won at Quail Hollow, earning his first major championship at the 2017 PGA Championship. 

Cameron Young (29-1, Circa Sports)

Young keeps getting close to breaking the maiden on the PGA Tour and finished T-4 back in March at PGA National and was runner-up the same month at the Valspar. 

He played his college golf at nearby Wake Forest so there are some local ties.

The Wells Fargo has produced notable first-time winners including Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Anthony Kim and Wyndham Clark last year. 

Sahith Theegala (30-1, Bet Rivers)

Theegala has seemed comfortable in 2024 at the “Signature Events” with a second at The Sentry, sixth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, ninth at The Players Championship and second at the RBC Heritage.

He’s been the best putter in the field over the last 36 rounds. 

Tony Finau (35-1, DraftKings)

He has been seemingly better than his form suggests this season, although he finished runner-up in late March.

Quail Hollow is the ideal track for his power off the tee and his typically top-shelf longer iron play. 

Matchups and placement markets will be available on Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks