WM Phoenix Open Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds

WM Phoenix Open Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:

Justin Rose went wire-to-wire on his way to a seven-shot victory at the Farmers Insurance Open last weekend, breaking the tournament record by posting a 23-under 265. 

Rose, a 66-1 pre-tournament price, opened with a 62 on the North Course at Torrey Pines and never let up, playing even better on the South Course that has hosted two U.S. Opens. He extended his lead after each round — by one shot, four shots, six shots and then a seven-shot margin, the largest of his career.

Si Woo Kim shared runner-up honors at 16 under with Ryo Hisatsune and Pierceson Coody, who both earned their best career PGA Tour finishes. Rounding out the top 5 were Stephen Jaeger and Jake Knapp, both T-4. Andrew Novak, Sahith Theegala and Joel Dahmen were T-7, and our nearest contender, Maverick McNealy, fell to 10th on Sunday. 

This week, the PGA Tour heads to Scottsdale for the WM Phoenix Open, which is always held on Super Bowl weekend. 

The PGA Tour’s one-week respite from Scottie Scheffler (+240) is over. Scheffler is a two-time winner (2022, 2023) here. I remember sweating a 28-1 Scheffler ticket, given in this column just four years ago, in a playoff vs. Patrick Cantlay that delayed me from watching Super Bowl LVI. Scheffler emerged victorious for his long-awaited maiden PGA Tour victory. Now, with his win at The American Express two weeks ago, he has 20 PGA Tour victories in just four years and is exempt for life. Things can change very quickly in this game. 

Xander Schauffele (20-1) missed the cut in San Diego but was runner-up here in 2021 and has been inside the top 10 here in four of his last five appearances.

Big things are expected for Cameron Young (25-1) this season now that he finally won his first PGA Tour event late last summer. 

Si Woo Kim (28-1) has finished second, sixth, 11th, third and fourth in his last five worldwide starts dating to November’s RSM Classic.

Hideki Matsuyama (28-1) is a two-time winner (2016, 2017) in Phoenix, with both coming in playoffs. If you are betting on this event, plan to be somewhere with multiple televisions because this event has gone to a playoff nine times in the last 18 years. 

Sam Burns (30-1) finished third here two years ago, while Maverick McNealy (33-1) finished in the top 10 the last two years. 

Ben Griffin (33-1), Viktor Hovland (35-1), Harris English (40-1), Chris Gotterup (40-1), 2019 winner Rickie Fowler (40-1), Matt Fitzpatrick (45-1) and J.J. Spaun (45-1) finish out the sub-50-1 market.

Defending champion Thomas Detry joined LIV, so he will not defend his title, but other former champions are in this week’s field, including 2024 champ Nick Taylor (60-1), 2015 and 2021 champ Brooks Koepka (50-1), 2020 winner Webb Simpson (225-1) and 2018 winner Gary Woodland (200-1).

The Event 

The WM Phoenix Open, nicknamed “the greatest show on grass” and more recently hashtagged as #ThePeoplesOpen, began in 1932 as the Arizona Open. The tournament alternated between the Phoenix Country Club and the Arizona Country Club until 1975, when the latter took over as host until 1987, when the event was moved to its present home of the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale. This event is historically the best-attended event in golf, as the weekly attendance usually exceeds 750,000 spectators. The signature 16th hole, nicknamed “The Coliseum,” is a par-3 of 162 yards and possesses a party atmosphere as many college students from nearby Arizona State flock to the course. Poor shots are jeered while good to great shots are met with raucous cheers. It’s almost as if “Happy Gilmore” comes to life here. 

Since 1973, the WMPO, organized by local Phoenix charity The Thunderbirds, has been held on Super Bowl weekend. Many big names have won here, including three-time winners Arnold Palmer (1961, 1962, 1963), Gene Littler (1955, 1959, 1969), Mark Calcavecchia (1989, 1992, 2001) and Phil Mickelson (1996, 2005, 2013). Other legendary names to win here include Byron Nelson (1939, 1945), Ben Hogan (1946, 1947), Jimmy Demaret (1949, 1950), Billy Casper (1957), Jack Nicklaus (1964), Johnny Miller (1974, 1975), Vijay Singh (1995, 2003) and Scottie Scheffler (2022, 2023). The tournament scoring record of 256 (-28) is shared by Calcavecchia (2001) and Mickelson (2013). 60 (-11) is the course record shared by Calcavecchia (2001), Grant Waite (1996), Mickelson (2005, 2013) and, most recently, Nick Taylor in the 2024 first round. 

WM, also known as Waste Management Inc., took over the sponsorship of this event in 2010. 

The Field

123 players are in the WM Phoenix Open field. 

11 of the OWGR (Official World Golf Rankings) top 20 are in Scottsdale this week.

The Course 

The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale was designed in 1986 by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish. It was redesigned in 2014 with the course lengthened and the greens resurfaced. The track plays as a par-71 of 7,261 yards, which is average length by PGA Tour standards and made up of 11 par-4s, four par-3s and three par-5s. TPC Scottsdale is a tad over 1,500 feet above sea level (second highest on the PGA Tour), so the ball will travel a bit longer at altitude, but only around 2%.

In terms of scoring, TPC Scottsdale rated mid-pack on the PGA Tour last year.

The fairways are a Rye and Fescue overseed with an average width of 33 yards. The rough is relatively short at just two inches. The Poa trivialis/rye overseeded greens are firm and average in terms of speed (12 on the stimpmeter) and are the ninth largest (7,069 square feet average) on tour. Greens are a majority Poa trivialis with some ryegrass mixed in and are very similar to the greens at PGA West Stadium, TPC Sawgrass, Innisbrook, TPC San Antonio and Harbour Town.

There are also five water holes on the layout and other holes with scattered waste areas. Because of the waste areas, TPC Scottsdale is not as heavily bunkered as you might think, with just 67 littered throughout the course. 

The back nine, particularly the last four holes, is the most interesting part of the course. 

It begins on the 15th hole with a 553-yard par-5 that features an island green but is easily reachable in two shots as the 15th typically plays as the easiest hole on the course.

The par-3 16th hole, aka “The Coliseum,” is one of the most intimidating and raucous shots in golf. Despite the loud crowds, the 16th is a simple hole into a two-tiered green.

As mentioned, the par-4 332-yard 17th is the most stressful and exciting hole on the course. Tournaments are won and lost here (as Sahith Theegala found four years ago). It is a drivable green, and players will certainly be egged on by the spectators to go for it, but there is a great deal of risk involved, particularly on Sunday. 

The closing hole is a 442-yard par-4 that doglegs to the left with water down the entire left side. This water hazard has been what ends many chances for victory as it plays over par.

Correlated courses to TPC Scottsdale include: TPC Summerlin, PGA West Stadium Course, TPC Sawgrass, Summit Club, Silverado, Concession and PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course.

TPC Scottsdale’s Facebook page has a 20-minute video flyover of the Stadium Course. 

Weather

Per the AccuWeather forecast, the 2026 WM Phoenix Open looks like typical conditions. Little rain in the area will see plenty of roll on the fairways, and historically, greens have been allowed to release here, especially over the weekend.

WMPO Recent History/Winners 

2025: Thomas Detry (-24/260); 100-1

2024: Nick Taylor (-21/263); 125-1*

2023: Scottie Scheffler (-19/265); 13-1

2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16/268); 25-1**

2021: Brooks Koepka (-19/265); 50-1

2020: Webb Simpson (-17/267); 14-1***

2019: Rickie Fowler (-17/267); 22-1

2018: Gary Woodland (-18/266); 50-1****

2017: Hideki Matsuyama (-17/267); 11-1*****

2016: Hideki Matsuyama (-14/270); 25-1 ******

2015: Brooks Koepka (-15/269); 40-1

2014: Kevin Stadler (-16/268); 125-1

2013: Phil Mickelson (-28/256); 25-1

2012: Kyle Stanley (-15/269); 66-1

2011: Mark Wilson (-18/266); 80-1*******

2010: Hunter Mahan (-16/268); 66-1 

Playoff win over Charley Hoffman – *

Playoff win over Patrick Cantlay – **

Playoff win over Tony Finau – ***

Playoff win over Chez Reavie – ****

Playoff win over Webb Simpson – *****

Playoff win over Rickie Fowler – ******

Playoff win over Jason Dufner – *******

WMPO Trends and Angles

Here are winner trends for the Waste Management Phoenix Open:

• 16 of the last 19 winners had played in at least two previous WM Phoenix Open events.
• 14 of the last 15 winners had a finish of seventh or better in one of their last five starts before their win at the WM Phoenix Open.
• 15 of the last 18 winners had finished 11th or better in a previous WM Phoenix Open.
• 16 of the last 18 winners had at least one previous top 10 that season.
• 19 of the last 23 winners were age 34 or younger.
• 13 of the last 17 winners were ranked in the OWGR Top 55.
• 13 of the last 17 winners had at least three career wins. 

Although the WMPO is not a “Signature Event,” it typically has a field with some elite players at the top, so it is not surprising that the above trends indicate that experienced players with at least some winning pedigree have been the most successful here. 

Statistical Analysis

Scottie Scheffler led the field for Strokes Gained: Approach in this 2023 WMPO victory. Webb Simpson did the same in 2020 as did Hideki Matsuyama in 2017. The average ranking for WMPO winners over the last 10 years is 10th. 

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round — Last 50 rounds

1. Scottie Scheffler 1.142
2. Si Woo Kim 1.079
3. Rico Hoey 0.974
4. Viktor Hovland 0.918
5. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 0.798
6. Hideki Matsuyama 0.778
7. Sami Valimaki 0.732
8. Daniel Brown 0.720
9. Kurt Kitayama 0.719
10. Marco Penge 0.685
11. Michael Kim 0.664
12. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.645
13. John Keefer 0.643
14. Akshay Bhatia 0.635
15. Matt Fitzpatrick 0.607
16. Chris Kirk 0.604
17. Haotong Li 0.599
18. Daniel Berger 0.562
19. Austin Eckroat 0.554
20. J.J. Spaun 0.552

While TPC Scottsdale has the longest Driving Distance of any course on tour since it is a driver-heavy course due to the lack of penal rough, plus elevation and firm conditions, accuracy is still important to avoid the water hazards and waste areas. Total Driving takes both distance and accuracy into account.

Total Driving (Driving Distance Rank + Driving Accuracy Rank) — 2026 PGA Tour season

1. Aldrich Potgieter 15 (1 + 14)
2. Corey Conners 23 (6 + 17)
3. Min Woo Lee 25 (3 + 22)
4. Rickie Fowler 50 (17 + 33)
5. Matt Fitzpatrick 56 (39 + 17)
6. Sudarshan Yellamaraju 63 (8 + 55)
7. Jordan Smith 76 (48 + 28)
8. Gary Woodland 76 (2 + 74)
9. Max Homa 78 (66 + 12)
10. Scottie Scheffler 81 (7 + 74)
11. Alex Smalley 84 (15 + 69)
12. Keith Mitchell 92 (21 + 71)
13. John Keefer 94 (20 + 74)
14. Ben Griffin 98 (88 + 10)
15. Sam Stevens 98 (24 + 74)
16. Harris English 99 (77 + 22)
17. Chris Gotterup 100 (4 + 96)

Total Driving (Driving Distance Rank + Driving Accuracy Rank) — 2025 PGA Tour season

1. Michael Thorbjornsen 54 (6 + 48)
2. Rico Hoey 68 (50 + 18)
3. Pierceson Coody 82 (26 + 56)
4. Kevin Roy 99 (65 + 34) 
5. Scottie Scheffler 103 (44 + 59)
6. William Mouw 107 (35 + 72)
7. Keith Mitchell 108 (12 + 96)
8. Alex Smalley 111 (61 + 50)
9. Daniel Berger 114 (89 + 25)
10. Thorbjørn Olesen 119 (76 + 43)
11. Rickie Fowler 120 (68 + 52)
12. Emiliano Grillo 123 (110 + 13)
13. Davis Thompson 125 (76 + 49)
14. J.J. Spaun 132 (62 + 70)
15. Gary Woodland 133 (18 + 115)
16. Austin Eckroat 137 (110 + 27)
17. Kurt Kitayama 140 (5 + 135)

TPC Scottsdale is a ball-strikers course, but players can still gain strokes off the tee. The average ranking of the last 10 WMPO winners was 14th. 

Strokes Gained: Off The Tee — Average Per Round — Last 50 rounds

1. Marco Penge 1.270
2. Pierceson Coody 0.907
3. Chris Gotterup 0.783
4. Jake Knapp 0.758
5. Kristoffer Reitan 0.710
6. Scottie Scheffler 0.704
7. Si Woo Kim 0.626
8. Michael Thorbjornsen 0.602
9. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 0.602
10. Kurt Kitayama 0.579
11. Aldrich Potgieter 0.562
12. Nicolai Højgaard 0.542
13. Keith Mitchell 0.524
14. Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.498
15. Cameron Young 0.485
16. Haotong Li 0.4660.
17. Davis Thompson 0.462
18. Thorbjørn Olesen 0.457
19. Sam Stevens 0.449
20. Rico Hoey 0.428
21. Collin Morikawa 0.428

Scoring has been super low here the last two years, with 21 under and 24 under as the winning scores.

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 44.44%
2. Jacob Bridgeman 33.33
3. Si Woo Kim 31.94
4. Davis Riley 31.67
5. Stephan Jaeger 30.95
6. Pierceson Coody 29.63
7. Andrew Novak 29.37
8. Daniel Berger 29.17
9. Matt Fitzpatrick 29.17
10. Rickie Fowler 29.17
11. Ben Griffin 29.17
12. Min Woo Lee 29.17
13. J.T. Poston 29.17
14. Max Greyserman 28.70
15. Max Homa 28.70
16. Patrick Rodgers 28.70
17. Matt McCarty 28.24
18. Sahith Theegala 28.24

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Garrick Higgo 27.89%
2. Scottie Scheffler 27.08
3. Harry Hall 25.83
4. Pierceson Coody 25.53
5. Keith Mitchell 25.33
6. Jake Knapp 25.25
7. Michael Thorbjornsen 25.23
8. Kurt Kitayama 25.00
9. Nicolai Højgaard 24.89
10. Rico Hoey 24.50
11. Sepp Straka 24.42
12. Akshay Bhatia 24.33
13. Danny Walker 24.32
14. Matti Schmid 24.24
15. Sam Burns 24.17
16. Cameron Young 24.14
17. Alex Smalley 24.03
18. Viktor Hovland 24.02

On a par-71 layout, there are only three par-5s, so there is one extra par-4. Five of the par-4s are between 450 and 500 yards and two others measure 442. 

Strokes Gained: Par 4 450-500 Yards — Average Per Round — Last 50 rounds

1. Chris Gotterup 0.718
2. Cameron Young 0.693
3. Jordan Spieth 0.594
4. Viktor Hovland 0.580
5. Garrick Higgo 0.572
6. Kurt Kitayama 0.535
7. Jake Knapp 0.486
8. Haotong Li 0.470
9. Rasmus Højgaard 0.467
10. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.459
11. Jordan Smith 0.455
12. Sami Valimaki 0.449
13. Scottie Scheffler 0.442
14. Maverick McNealy 0.426
15. Pierceson Coody 0.402
16. Marco Penge 0.398
17. Jacon Bridgeman 0.392
18. J.T. Poston 0.387
19. Daniel Brown 0.355
20. Michael Thorbjornsen 0.351
21. Alex Smalley 0.350

While TPC Scottsdale is not an overly difficult course, there are some danger spots with the hazards, plus the firm and fast conditions will cause some tricky lies as balls roll through the fairways, so big numbers do lurk.

Bogey Avoidance Percentage — 2026 PGA Tour season 

1. Rickie Fowler 4.17%
2. Sam Burns 5.56
3. Scottie Scheffler 5.56
4. Min Woo Lee 6.94
5. J.T. Poston 6.94
6. Joel Dahmen 7.64
7. Harry Hall 7.64
8. Harris English 8.33
9. Jake Knapp 8.33
10. Nick Taylor 8.33
11. Daniel Berger 9.03
12. Chris Gotterup 9.03
13. Haotong Li 9.26
14. Ryo Hisatsune 9.44
15. Michael Kim 9.52
16. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 9.72
17. Pierceson Coody 9.72
18. Nicolai Højgaard 9.72
19. Si Woo Kim 9.72
20. Hideki Matsuyama 9.72
21. John Parry 9.72
22. Sam Stevens 9.72
23. Karl Vilips 9.72
24. Cameron Young 9.72

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 10.56%
2. Garrick Higgo 11.92
3. Vince Whaley 12.33
4. Brice Garnett 12.42
5. Takumi Kanaya 12.96
6. Ben Griffin 12.98
7. Pierceson Coody 13.03
8. Chris Gotterup 13.25
9. Mac Meissner 13.36
10. Thorbjørn Olesen 13.46
11. Harry Hall 13.53
12. Kevin Roy 13.60
13. J.J. Spaun 13.68
14. Chad Ramey 13.72
15. Michael Thorbjornsen 13.72
16. Sepp Straka 13.82
17. Harris English 13.83
18. Rickie Fowler 13.85
19. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 13.86
20. Alex Smalley 13.95

NOTE: Percentage of time that a player makes bogey.

The greens at TPC Scottsdale are flat and fairly straightforward, so the short game is not tested as much putting as it is around the greens. In two of the last three years here, the WMPO eventual winner has led the field in Scrambling.

Scrambling (2026 PGA Tour season)

1. Sam Burns 83.33%
2. Rickie Fowler 78.57
3. Scottie Scheffler 76.92
4. Michael Kim 75.61
5. Jake Knapp 75.56
6. Hideki Matsuyama 75.00
7. Harry Hall 74.36
8. Sami Valimaki 74.19
9. Joel Dahmen 72.97
10. Sam Stevens 72.55
11. Harris English 72.50
12. Chad Ramey 72.50
13. Ryo Hisatsune 72.34
14. S.H. Kim 71.83
15. Haotong Li 71.43
16. Nick Taylor 69.70
17. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 69.44
18. Kurt Kitayama 69.23
19. Eric Cole 69.09
20. Brian Campbell 69.05
21. Wyndham Clark 69.05

Scrambling (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Takumi Kanaya 68.84
2. Scottie Scheffler 68.69
3. Mac Meissner 65.92
4. Harry Hall 65.88
5. Garrick Higgo 65.71
6. Vince Whaley 65.55
7. Hideki Matsuyama 64.97
8. Brice Garnett 64.48
9. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 63.81
10. Harris English 63.64
11. Chris Gotterup 63.58
12. Ben Griffin 63.56
13. Alex Smalley 63.22
14. Rickie Fowler 63.20
15. Michael Kim 62.98
16. Matt McCarty 62.80
17. Nick Taylor 62.75
18. Jacob Bridgeman 62.65
19. Patrick Rodgers 62.42
20. Mackenzie Hughes 62.27
21. Sam Stevens 62.25

With little rain in the desert, the greens will be firm and fast, as they typically are at TPC Scottsdale.

Strokes Gained: Putting — Fast Greens — Average Per Round — Last 50 rounds

1. Chandler Phillips 1.445
2. Harry Hall 1.261
3. Keita Nakajima 1.099
4. Kevin Roy 0.739
5. Sam Burns 0.694
6. Ben Griffin 0.691
7. Matt Fitzpatrick 0.689
8. Max Greyserman 0.636
9. Harris English 0.475
10. Brian Campbell 0.467
11. Thorbjørn Olesen 0.465
12. Davis Riley 0.430
13. William Mouw 0.409
14. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.402
15. Billy Horschel 0.363
16. Michael Kim 0.356
17. Xander Schauffele 0.322

Selections

Maverick McNealy (36-1, Circa Sports)

I was aboard McNealy last week in San Diego. At one point in the final round, he was T-2 but fell to 10th with a 2-over back nine. 

McNealy was second in the field in proximity from 150-175 on Sunday at Torrey Pines, and the 150-175 and 175-200 ranges are where a plurality of the approach shots come from at TPC Scottsdale.

He finished T-6 and T-9 here in the last two years. 

Collin Morikawa (53-1, Circa Sports)

Morikawa’s last tournament win was in October 2023 (although he was the low 72-hole scorer in the 2024 Tour Championship). However low the win equity has been, Morikawa should not be above 50-1 in this tournament even with little recent or course form.

Morikawa is still one of the best iron players in the world, as evidenced by ranking third on the PGA Tour last season for Strokes Gained: Approach. 

He has a solid track record for desert golf, winning in Dubai, winning the Barracuda, and he resides in Las Vegas, so TPC Scottsdale should not be a bad course for him, despite being an infrequent visitor here. 

Pierceson Coody (66-1, BetRivers)

Coody finished T-2 last week at the Farmers Insurance Open and has gotten off to a hot start in 2026, going 13-18-2 over the last three weeks. 

He led the field last week in San Diego for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and was second for Greens In Regulation. 

TPC Scottsdale is a driver-heavy course, and Coody was third in this field last season for Total Driving and is second for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee over the last 50 rounds. Plus, he ranks high for Birdie Or Better Percentage and Bogey Avoidance. 

Kurt Kitayama (75-1, Caesars Sportsbook)

Kitayama was eighth here two years ago. 

He is a Las Vegas resident and UNLV graduate, so he is adept at desert golf. 

At TPC Scottsdale, players will hit driver off the tee more than almost any other course, which is good news for Kitayama, who ranked fifth on the PGA Tour last season for Driving Distance and is top 10 in this field for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee over the last 50 rounds. 

Sepp Straka (88-1, DraftKings)

Last week, Justin Rose went into the Farmers Insurance Open ranked No. 10 in the OWGR and was somewhere around 25th on the betting board before his victory.

This week, Straka ranks No. 12 in the OWGR and is around 34th on the betting board this week at the WM Phoenix Open. 

Granted, Straka has little history here aside from a top-15 last year. He also missed the cut two weeks ago in defense of his title at The American Express.

However, he concluded 2025 finishing third at the Hero World Challenge and is not all that far out of form for this price to drift as much as it has. 

Andrew Novak (105-1, DraftKings)

Novak finished T-7 last week in San Diego and was No. 2 in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach. 

He finished T-8 here at TPC Scottsdale two years ago.

He rounded 2025 off with a seventh at the RSM Classic before winning the Grant Thornton Invitational with Lauren Coughlin, and he has shown to be a player who gets on good streaks. Remember last year when he finished T-3 at the Valero, then runner-up at the RBC Heritage before winning the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with Ben Griffin. The eighth-place here in 2024 also led to top-10s in his next starts at Palm Beach and Mexico. 

Haotong Li (105-1, Circa Sports)

Li was one of 10 players to earn his PGA Tour card through the DP World Tour last year. It has been a mixed bag since the PGA Tour and DP World Tour began doing this a couple of years ago, as the transition has proven tough for most players, but Li has gotten off to a good start with finishes of T-11 and T-8 the last two weeks.

Li also has had success in desert golf, winning the Dubai Desert Classic and last year’s Qatar Masters, plus numerous top-10s in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Ras al Khaimah. 

Tony Finau (130-1, DraftKings)

Finau just missed the top 10 last week in San Diego, finishing T-11, but ranking inside the top 10 for Strokes Gained: Approach. 

Last week was his best finish in almost a calendar year and included a hole-in-one in the first round last Thursday.

He was runner-up here at WMPO in 2020 and the Scottsdale resident is playing this week in his adopted home event for the first time since 2023. 

Placement market and/or matchup wagers will be posted on Wednesday at VSiN.com.