Belmont Stakes Draw
With the final jewel of this year’s Triple Crown races just days away, we officially have post positions and morning line odds out for the Belmont at Saratoga. Now, in this space, I’ve broken down who benefited from the draw of the last two jewels, and I will do that again today, but I must mention that this is the least important draw of the Triple Crown races. With an eight-horse field traveling 9 furlongs over an 8-furlong track, there is not a bad post. Saratoga offers an ample run-up to the first turn, which allows horses to generally get the position that they want/need to be most effective.
The Belmont Stakes Pace
Now there was one specific factor I was looking at going into the draw. Who is going to be inside speed? With Rodriguez and Crudo both signed up, it’s clear we have two horses that want to lead. Anytime you have two horses that want the front in a two-turn race, the inside horse has an advantage. It is much more difficult to clear from the outside than it is to hold position to the first turn. Once you get into the first turn, the horse on the outside must cover more ground and almost always ends up backing off. That is an advantage for Rodriguez, who draws the No. 3 to Crudo’s No. 5. That’s not to say Crudo, who took his last two fields gate to wire, does not try to go nuts and clear, but it does increase the odds Rodriguez gets loose on the lead which is the style he runs his best at.
Who Lost The Belmont Stakes Draw?
Expect Rodriguez to break forward and out, a tactic that we see anytime Baffert has inside speed, to make it even more difficult for Crudo to clear. That means it is also likely that No. 4 Uncaged gets pinched here, so if there was a loser of the draw, it’s Uncaged, the longest shot on the board. I love Baeza’s draw in this position. He’s clearly the third-fastest horse early on paper, and Uncaged would be the likely contender, so he should sit a perfect trip on the rail headed into the first turn.
Who Won The Belmont Stakes Draw?
Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty draws the No. 2 post and is set up well to run from there. He will take back and then wait to make a big move, replicating his Derby run. He would have been good from any post position. Your Preakness winner, Journalism, is in a similar boat. As long as he was not directly between the two speed horses, then he was fine, the biggest question for him is what we get from the only horse who ran in all three legs of the Triple Crown, especially after the bumper cars Preakness win.
Overall, the draw did not change much for me. Rodriguez is likely the speed setting a moderate to quick tempo, with all of the main contenders being largely unaffected by the positioning into the first turn.
