Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer analyze a talent-loaded Grade 2 at Gulfstream Park with Kentucky Derby qualifying points on the line.
Saturday’s marquee event is the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park – the final race on a 14-race card with a post time of 6:11 p.m. Eastern. The $425,000 race awards Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top five finishers on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale. The lineup features three of the top 20 horses on Daily Racing Form’s Derby Watch – Commandment, Napoleon Solo, and Bravaro – and will go with a field of 10 after trainer Rohan Crichton announced Thursday that Global Aviator will miss the race with a bone bruise that is expected to sideline him for several months. Aragona and Beer both agree on the main contenders but land on different horses to win.
The horse to beat: No. 4 Commandment
At 2-1 on the morning line, Commandment enters off a dominant victory in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream. Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., this Into Mischief colt has made a habit of running straight through the wire and galloping out strongly – traits that have had Aragona championing him in his Derby Watch coverage for weeks. In the Mucho Macho Man, he bowled through traffic at the quarter pole, found daylight at the top of the stretch, and kept opening up, earning a 91 Beyer Speed Figure. With a fast early pace projected by Daily Racing Form’s TimeformUS Pace Projector and a field loaded with speed, Cox’s tractable closer looks ideally positioned to pounce late. The longer 1 1/16-mile distance appears to be a plus.
The challenger: No. 1 Jackson Hole
Beer’s top selection, Jackson Hole, is unbeaten in two starts for trainer Todd Pletcher. The Nyquist colt was green on debut at Gulfstream but returned a much more polished horse at Fair Grounds, dominating wire-to-wire in a performance Beer believes was better than it looked on paper. Drawing the rail is a significant asset – jockey John Velazquez can establish position into the first turn without burning excessive energy, then work outside when needed. Beer concedes Commandment is the logical favorite but wants to take a shot with what figures to be a better price.
The most intriguing: No. 6 Chief Wallabee
No horse generates more conversation than Chief Wallabee. Trained by Bill Mott and ridden by Junior Alvarado, this Constitution colt enters a Grade 2 Kentucky Derby prep off a single career start – a debut on Jan. 10 at Gulfstream where he posted a jaw-dropping final eighth of a mile in 11.96 seconds, per GMAX, earning an 89 Beyer. Mott has acknowledged he’d have preferred an allowance spot, but no suitable race filled. Neither handicapper wants to bet him here, but both agree this horse has serious talent and could be a major player in the division before long.
The rest of the field
No. 7 Napoleon Solo won the Grade 1 Champagne at Aqueduct last fall with a 95 Beyer but returns off a lengthy layoff for his two-turn debut. Aragona and Beer have both tempered their enthusiasm – the Champagne’s runbacks have been underwhelming, and the Oct. 4 Aqueduct track was playing exceptionally fast that day.
No. 10 Solitude Dude matches Napoleon Solo’s 95 Beyer from his Swale Stakes victory and is unbeaten in three sprints but faces the challenge of stretching out for the first time from a wide draw in post 9.
No. 5 Bravaro ran second in the Grade 3 Holy Bull but was no match for winner Nearly when he ranged up on the far turn.
No. 2 Rockies Balboa, No. 3 Talkin (a potential scratch), No. 8 Bull by the Horns, and No. 11 Lost Money round out the field. Neither handicapper expects them to seriously factor.
The handicappers’ verdict
David Aragona’s picks:
No. 4 Commandment
No. 6 Chief Wallabee
No. 5 Bravaro
No. 7 Napoleon Solo
Mike Beer’s picks:
No. 1 Jackson Hole
No. 4 Commandment
No. 6 Chief Wallabee
No. 7 Napoleon Solo
Commandment is the consensus horse to beat, with the pace setup tailor-made for a powerful closer. Beer’s play on Jackson Hole at a better price gives the exacta a natural shape, and Chief Wallabee remains the wild card who could reframe the entire 3-year-old picture if he runs to his debut promise – or beyond.
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