Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer preview the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, a nine-furlong Grade 1 dirt stakes for 3-year-olds at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark.
Saturday’s Arkansas Derby is Race 13 on a 14-race card at Oaklawn Park – offering 100 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner, with a purse of $1.5 million and a post time of 6:48 p.m. Central. The race is part of the final round of 200-point Kentucky Derby qualifying preps, and Aragona and Beer split at the top in a field of eight after the scratch of No. 7 Napoleon Solo.
The horse to beat: No. 6 Renegade
Renegade, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., enters as the 3-2 morning-line favorite and the consensus horse to beat. Aragona makes him his pick to win without hesitation. “I’ve got the two favorites on the morning line, first and second – Renegade over Silent Tactic,” Aragona said. “Feel pretty good about Renegade punching his ticket to the Kentucky Derby. Really liked what I’ve seen from him in all of his prior dirt route starts.”
Beer has Renegade in the second position. “I think Renegade’s a pretty likely winner here,” Beer said.
The handicappers argue that Renegade’s race record is better than it might appear on paper. He was disqualified in a maiden race against Paladin that both handicappers said was the wrong call. He endured a tough trip in the Remsen and then scored a dominant Sam Davis Stakes win this winter.
“He probably still has forward to go,” Beer said, and both handicappers pointed to his pedigree and finishing style as reasons the step up in distance should suit.
Beer’s top pick: No. 3 Blackout Time
Blackout Time, trained by Kenny McPeek and ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr., is Beer’s pick to win at 6-1 on the morning line. He returned to the track off a long layoff – scratched by regulatory vets at the Breeders Cup, slow to get back to training – and ran into a hot early pace while three wide in the Rebel.
Beer called it “a pretty solid pace” and argues it was simply not the right spot for a horse off a layoff. “If he can get back to his top race, he’s supposed to be really tough,” Beer said, citing a career-best 93 Beyer from the Breeders’ Futurity.
Aragona respected the excuse while setting the bar plainly: “He’s going to have to run a lot better in here.”
Silent Tactic’s trajectory
Silent Tactic, trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Cristian Torres, is the 5-2 second choice and lands in both sets of selections – second for Aragona, third for Beer. A nose defeat in the Rebel after getting into position to win left both handicappers encouraged about his trajectory. Beer’s one caution was tactical – an early move up the backstretch may have cost him late, a contrast with the patience shown in the Southwest – and both agreed the nine-furlong distance is an advantage. “I think longer distances are good for this horse,” Beer said.
The Handicappers’ Verdict
David Aragona’s picks
No. 6 Renegade
No. 2 Silent Tactic
No. 3 Blackout Time
No. 9 Litmus Test
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 3 Blackout Time
No. 6 Renegade
No. 2 Silent Tactic
No. 5 Taptastic
Aragona picks Renegade to win and Beer sides with Blackout Time; they share three horses in common – Renegade, Silent Tactic, and Blackout Time – differing only on Beer’s inclusion of Taptastic against Aragona’s Litmus Test.
Watch for more thoughts on this race from David and Mike:
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