Mike Somich’s Aqueduct Picks:
While December is not a big month for horse racing, this is one of my favorite weekends. To me, it marks the return of top-end racing. Oaklawn broke from the post on Friday, kicking off a meet that will feature some of the biggest Kentucky Derby preps, Gulfstreams Championship meet is starting to gear up and today marks New York’s return to the big stage with Aqueduct featuring multiple graded stakes including Derby and Oaks preps as well as the Cigar Mile.
Cigar Mile, Race #9, Aqueduct
As I mentioned above, this race really makes the beginning of the new, post-Breeders’ Cup season, including the running up in the Breeders’ Cup Mile returning here. Let’s start on the rail here with #1 Book’em Danno, who was a Derby hopefully before turning into one of the top 1-turn three-year-olds in the country. After returning to the US, he was awesome in the Woods Stephens and Jersey Shore. He likes to come from off the pace and it set up well to do so again here. We’ve got a load of speed signed on, and the post should help work out a ground-saving trip.
#11 Post Time was the aforementioned horse that ran second in the Breeders’ Cup mile. The only time he has missed the exacta in the last nine races was in the slop and he still ran third. Post Time has shown the ability to win when he comes from way out of it or sitting close to the pace. Normally the 11 post would be offsetting, but with this one turn mile, you have more than enough time to work out a trip. He’s live.
#7 Locked is another three-year-old who has Derby aspirations cut short. He ran well in the Breeders’ Cup in 2023, but he could not stay healthy this season and get back to the track. He finally returned in October and looked dominant. You’d expect he improves second off the layoff, which puts him right in the middle of the contenders here.
#6 Law Professor is a bomb at 15-1 on the morning line because he struggles with consistency. That being said, his top race is competitive here, and the cut back from a mile and an eighth to today’s mile should suit him well. He’s back in the Atras barn where Law Professor has done his best work, and the connections are willing to take a swing. Don’t leave him out of the exotics.
Aqueduct Picks: 1-11-7-6
Bets: $50 Win #1
Remsen Stakes, Race #7, Aqueduct
The Derby trail in New York starts today at a wild mile and an eighth distance. This is by far the longest any of these horses have run so it’s important to focus on speed and not to fall in love with favorite. The distance alone introduces enough variance that it is worth it to take shots. Let’s start with the inside runner, #1 Tux. The fact that Bill Mott is sending out this second-time starter after winning a six-and-a-half furlong maiden race speaks volumes. Mott is not a trainer who rushes horses into stakes company, so when he does, you have to take note. He’s got the rail and the speed, both of which are dangerous and the breeding screams two turns.
#4 Studlydoright Is the most experienced of this bunch, running in five stakes already. He’s won at a mile over this track and has not run a bad race except for the Grade 1 Hopeful from Saratoga, where he had no chance due to the trip. His connections are not well known in New York so I expect he will be under bet.
#5 Keewaydin is the 6/5 morning line favorite coming off a dominant win versus maidens in his second start. The race was visually impressive, but it came versus a field of just five horses and the four behind him have not shown they can run. He can win and will try to get the lead, but the price is just too short for me.
#3 Poster is the wild card in here. The price is not eye-popping at 5-1 since he has never run on the dirt, but the barn was able to lure Prat to ride, and the family has dirt distance pedigree on the top and bottom. I’m not sure he can win, but I like him to spice up the trifecta.
Aqueduct Picks: 1-4-5-3
Bets: $50 Win #1
Spot Plays:
Aqueduct, Race #8 – $25 Exacta 1 / 5,10
Aqueduct, Race #6 – $50 Win #10
