Aqueduct Picks from Mike Somich:
This weekend always marks one of my least favorite weekends of the year. It marks the final weekend of turf racing in New York until the spring. In honor of the turf course closing due to the changing temperatures, just dedicate this article to the turf races on Saturday at Aqueduct! Here are Saturday’s Aqueduct picks.
$80k State Bred Allowance, Race #6, Aqueduct
This is simply a classic New York state bred turf race. Your favorite is #3 Slapintheface who is simply a horse I will not be betting. Slapintheface has run well in four tries at this level, but the excuses are running out. He should have won two of those three races but could not close the deal, including last time out as an even-money favorite.
Let’s look to the #7 Amplitude, who was impressive last time out breaking the maiden. It’s a tricky spot facing winner for the first time while being the only three-year-old in the field, but the talent is there. He took a big step forward, jumping from dirt to turf, and should take another step here. The pace sets up well for Amplitude to sit mid-pack and roll by in the stretch.
#5 Miracle Mike has run behind Slapintheface twice in the last three races, but he had the worse trip in both of those starts. He projects to sit right behind the speed today and should get a good, ground-saving trip. At 10-1, five times the price of the #3, I’d rather be playing Miracle Mike here.
#2 Fake Celebrity is the “other” Chad Brown in this spot, who ran okay the first time off the layoff and has every right to improve here. Dylan Davis rides back and has been on fire since the Saratoga meet.
Aqueduct Picks: 7-5-2-3
Bets: $50 Win #7
The Central Park, Race #9, Aqueduct
The 9th is a great turf stakes for two-year-olds, and it will likely feature multiple graded stakes competitors during their three-year-old season. Let’s start with #4 Jack and Jim, who won smartly on debut and will jump directly into stakes company. He will be coming from off the pace, which is ideal with this field that is loaded with speed.
#9 Early Adopter will likely be the favorite for trainer Chad Brown. He’s deserving of the honor with a nice win on debut and a better-than-it-looks-on-paper effort versus Grade 2 company when he had to check hard in the stretch. I love the fact the he re-rallied after the trouble.
#6 Not For Hire is the wildcard in here. He was just awesome turf sprinting on debut, but he will have a tough time going gate-to-wire here. If he has the ability to rate, then this may very well be the best horse in the race.
#7 Manhattan Trip will be trying the turf for the first time for trainer Todd Pletcher. He is bred to handle the surface but may need the lead. That could be a major knock, but at 10-1, I’m willing to take a shot. I do like the top three much more than the rest in here.
Aqueduct Picks: 4-9-6-7
Bets: $50 Win #4
Spot Plays:
Aqueduct, Race #7 – $50 Exacta 3/8
Aqueduct, Race #8 – $50 Win #2
