Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Sunday, May 10 racing card at Belmont at the Big A, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 6.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Democracy Defender (6th race)
Sixth Race
1. Democracy Defender
2. Coordinator
3. Donegal Time
DEMOCRACY DEFENDER ran a big race on debut when making a wide run around the final turn to gain contention, and taking over in the stretch, only to get run down late by next-out stakes winner Vasy; he has endured two unlucky trips since, while running quite well both times; one more chance. COORDINATOR was the lone first-time starter in that field in the Keeneland debut, where he wound up last early, and then finished gamely behind a pair of talented rivals; has a better post for this; eligible to improve quickly. DONEGAL TIME had a pace in front of him while outrun early in his debut, but he still looked green while trying to rally through the stretch; has been given some time by Pletcher, and he has breezed seven times on the way back.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other eight races on Sunday’s Belmont at the Big A card.
First Race
1. Blue Roof Beau
2. Prospector
3. Big Fat Goalie
BLUE ROOF BEAU is by a 12% debut sire from an unraced dam; the second dam was a Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed in her career; Englehart is as reliable as they come with first-time starters. PROSPECTOR has the experience edge on most of these, with two starts at Gulfstream over the winter, where he landed in two very strong MSW heats to no avail; ships up to face NY-bred maidens while turning back in distance. BIG FAT GOALIE is from a female family that is full of talented and versatile runners; his trainer has a positive ROI with first-time starters over the past five years.
Second Race
1. Remi’s Moon
2. Looms Boldly
3. Sheriff Bianco
REMI’S MOON got wired when stretched out to a mile last month; each of his last three sprints have come over wet tracks, which he handles, though his top two figures have come over fast dirt; moves outside with tactical speed. LOOMS BOLDLY sped clear early and just failed to last over REMI’S MOON for this tag back in January over a wet track; back-classer was claimed out of a win six weeks later, and he has not run his best race in two starts for the new connections; better than that, and he has speed. SHERIFF BIANCO got some overdue class relief when winning three starts back in the mud; was claimed out of that race, and came right back to win again 22 days later; drops back down after getting in too tough last time.
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Third Race
1. Tricky Business
2. Sfumato
3. Judge Boushay
TRICKY BUSINESS is a half-brother to Russian Realm, whose four career wins to date have all come over this one-mile distance; he is also a full-brother to debut winner Super Swift, who also races for Weaver; breaks from the outside post, and gets Prat. SFUMATO and JUDGE BOUSHAY debuted in the same race sprinting, and both were away from the gate poorly as that race was won on the front end in fast time (91 Beyer for the winner). SFUMATO is a half-brother to the talented NY-bred Dolomite, who is best sprinting, but did place in a couple of stakes going long, including a Grade 2; back to dirt after a failed turf attempt. JUDGE BOUSHAY didn’t take much money in that first start, but he stayed on well after that poor beginning, and just missed getting up for third; just went evenly in a pace-dominated race over this distance last time; tries again, this time with blinkers on.
Fourth Race
1. Right Timing
2. Prairie Princess
3. Jordan’s Love
RIGHT TIMING dueled and was caught late in her well-bet debut sprinting on dirt; went favored again at Keeneland last month, but failed to improve – though she did not have a clean trip in that race; has a lot of turf in her female family. PRAIRIE PRINCESS makes her debut for Brown, and she also has plenty of turf on the bottom of her pedigree; the dam is a sister to Valiance, who won the first three starts of her career on grass, before eventually switching over to win a Grade 1 on dirt. JORDAN’S LOVE stretches out following two sprints to begin her career; Maclean’s Music is a versatile sire, and the dam, who was a winner on grass, is a sister to Grade 1 turf winner Up With the Birds.
Fifth Race
1. P Mutter Pickle
2. Point of Reference
3. Brunch With Amy
P MUTTER PICKLE ran an underrated race off the layoff two winters ago, before stretching out to post a pair of sharp wins over this distance; was last seen at Saratoga last summer trying to go long in stakes company; tough in here if ready to go as she starts back for a new trainer. POINT OF REFERENCE raced greenly and wide in her debut in Florida; was much more clued in last time while sitting up on the pace out wide, before taking over and gamely denying main rival Irresistible, who appeared to have the late momentum; holding the upside for top connections. BRUNCH WITH AMY ran well while nearly overcoming a slow start in her first start off the claim for Rice; came right back to score an easy win a month later, then tried a different running style last time to no avail; in good form, and has options from the outside post.
Seventh Race
1. Sansone
2. Bold Strength
3. Fort Nelson
SANSONE ran well without winning in all three starts as a 3yo; finally looked like he might start delivering on the big sticker price when trouncing maidens in his return from the layoff at Gulfstream; chased along the inside and failed to land a blow in a tough allowance here last time; willing to give him one more as he moves outside for this; blinkers on. BOLD STRENGTH flashed potential in his debut last summer, after which he missed six months; he looked good winning his first start back, and he has also run well in the two starts since, including that last one when finishing well ahead of the top one. FORT NELSON has gotten into good form since being claimed for $50k earlier this year; 2 for 2 over this distance for Rice, and getting a turnback after contesting the pace going longer last time; dangerous.
Eighth Race
1. Kaz Oil Changer
2. Stickupwithoutagun
3. Max Money
Wouldn’t mind seeing KAZ OIL CHANGER try some less aggressive tactics in this spot as he turns back, though think he is going to appreciate getting back to a mile, regardless; he has run well from off the pace in the past, and breaking toward the outside offers his rider some options; sticking with him at a price. STICKUPWITHOUTAGUN was a clear-cut winner of his dirt debut last summer, after which he was thrown into Grade 1 company to no avail; blazed clear on a fast pace and tired in his return from the layoff; figures tough in this spot. MAX MONEY faced the likes of Napoleon Solo and Bravaro while going 0 for 5 as a juvenile, though he was stakes-placed with a 79 Beyer; earned a slight new Beyer top winning off the layoff last month; takes the next logical step.
Ninth Race
1. Ortus
2. A Little At First
3. Jack’s World
Siding with the more lightly-raced runners in the finale, while realizing they have to improve to defeat their more established (and faster) rivals. ORTUS is now 7 years old but has only 13 starts behind him. He ran well in his first two starts for this trainer last year while in the claiming ranks; was outside from a wide draw in that race that was run at the wrong distance two back; he was brought back on short rest for his next start, where he was involved on a solid pace in a race that went to closers; might get overlooked for an underrated trainer. A LITTLE AT FIRST raced greenly in his sprint debut, before gaining late ground and then carrying on past the wire; lost early position in traffic when stretched out for his second start, before finishing well once again; put it all together in his final start as a 2yo; well-bred with forward to go. JACK’S WORLD looked like he needed his debut at Saratoga; disappointed a bit in his next turf start, but he also improved in his final start of the year; Lasix on for the 3yo debut.
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