Eight games make up the Week 0 college football slate, as we get a look at 16 of the 138 FBS teams, including newcomers North Dakota State and Sacramento State. Nowadays, all teams kind of feel like newcomers in some respect, as returning starters and production numbers continue to dwindle with the ease of transferring and coaches frequently change zip codes. We’re going to find out a lot about all of these teams with their first few data points, but it’s even tougher to bet into markets that have been up for months with teams that could look nothing like what they previously did.
But, a higher variance environment is often good for bettors, so if you trust your research and trust your instincts, you can find some success while oddsmakers are also still trying to figure out how to price these teams. With that in mind, here are a few Week 0 college football picks.
New Mexico State vs. Florida State Prediction
Pick: New Mexico State +31.5
The Aggies are making the long trek to Tallahassee to open up the season against a Florida State team that should enter the campaign with some urgency. While boosters and backers seem to just be waiting for Mike Norvell’s buyout to get to a spot where they are willing to pay it, the players have to be annoyed and upset about what the program has become. Three short seasons ago, they were a Jordan Travis injury away from being in the College Football Playoff (and should have been in anyway). Now, they are trying to right the ship after missing a bowl game in consecutive, non-COVID seasons for the first time since 1972-76.
Maybe they do go out there and flex their significant talent advantage, but this is also a bit of a tricky situation to cover a massive spread. I angered some Florida State fans with my position on the College Football Betting Podcast that a program like this should do a lot better than Ashton Daniels at QB when college football basically has free agency. I’m just not a big Daniels guy. He’s on his third program and in his fifth season of CFB with just a 24/22 TD/INT ratio. He is a decent runner with four yards per carry over 345 career attempts, but still. The Seminoles should be able to do better.
Furman transfer Trey Hedden takes over the New Mexico State offense, a group that badly needs to find some balance. They threw for over 3,000 yards as a team, but were one of three teams in the nation with fewer than 1,000 rushing yards. The others were Charlotte and UMass. In fact, the Aggies were dead last in the country with 927 yards on the ground.
Florida State will have the better running game here and is the bigger, more talented team, but the Aggies got a little bit more investment into the program this season and have accumulated some better players. My power ratings have this game at 26.5, so I’ll take a shot on the Aggies keeping it close and my position on the Seminoles being somewhat validated.
Sacramento State vs. Eastern Michigan Prediction
Pick: Sacramento State +10
This is a game that I’ve agonized over all week. My power ratings point me in the direction of the Hornets, as they play their first FBS game a long way from home in Ypsilanti, Michigan. Eastern Michigan is -6 in my numbers and I’m down on the Eagles this season. As I wrote in the 2026 College Football Betting Guide, the Eagles have missed a bowl for the first time in consecutive seasons since Creighton first started back in 2014-15. The transfer class was poor per 247 Sports and the defense has allowed 6.2 yards per play each of the last two seasons.
Creighton wants to build a program. He wants to develop players. Unfortunately, that’s just not how the college football world works anymore. The Eagles had the MAC’s top passer by yardage in Noah Kim, but his 18/11 TD/INT ratio was underwhelming and so was EMU’s output of just 24.1 PPG. Defensive coordinator Ben Needham deserved his pink slip, as the defense was 131st in the nation on third down, 126th in sacks, and only had nine takeaways.
Unless things have drastically changed, that isn’t the profile of a team who should be able to cover a double-digit spread. The reason why I’ve waffled on this game so much is because I don’t really know what Sacramento State is going to look like. They have a new head coach in Alonzo Carter, lost OC Brennan Marion, and has a ton of JUCO transfers.
Carter is said to be a master motivator and I have no doubt that his team will play hard. Admittedly, I have no idea how talented they will look or how Carter will do as a head coach, given that his only other head coaching experience was at Contra Costa College. Still, much like the above play where I felt Florida State was a team that I wanted to go against and the betting market has allowed me that opportunity, I feel the same way about Eastern Michigan.
Jacksonville State vs. North Dakota State Prediction
Pick: Under 46.5
Getting a lesser number here, as this one spent a good bit of time at 48.5 and 48 over the summer, but the context of these two teams seems like it would lend itself to an Under.
Let’s start with this – Jacksonville State was fourth in the nation in rush attempts with 650. One of the teams ahead of them was Indiana, who played 16 games. The other two are Army and Air Force. In terms of rush attempts per game, Jacksonville State was fifth behind all three service academies and Rice, who is also running the option. While the Gamecocks had a ton of success on the ground with better than 5.3 yards per carry, and return QB Caden Creel, who had 1,075 rush yards, they do not have Cam Cook, who was No. 1 in the nation in rushing yards with 1,659.
In other words, I think head coach Charles Kelly will be trying to figure out who his best running backs are in this game. The by-committee approach may work, but it also probably means a lot of Creel running for short yardage. Creel threw for 1,514 yards on 211 attempts and was sacked 19 times last season.
While we can all assume that life will be tougher at the FBS level for North Dakota State, they’ll probably still excel at stopping the run. They allowed 103.4 rush yards per game last season and just 3.15 yards per carry. I don’t think the defense will run into too many issues or play very many track meets this season.
The offense is where Tim Polasek needs to figure some things out because his QB, Cole Payton, was drafted by the Eagles. Nathan Hayes, who has been in the program since 2022, didn’t play much last season and hasn’t really been able to crack the depth chart for consistent playing time. The skill groups were ravaged by the transfer portal and graduation. I’m not sure where the explosiveness will come from with this group. Jacksonville State ran the ball over 66% of the time last season. I think this will be a rock fight in the Fargodome.
