The 2025 Breeders’ Cup is packed with championship talent, but as VSiN’s Mike Somich put it best, “Everyone who joins us- they want to know who are the long shots. So that’s what this video is all about.”
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Somich and fellow handicapper Aaron Halterman, co-hosts of VSiN At The Track, broke down their favorite long-odds plays for the Breeders’ Cup races on Friday and Saturday, focusing on horses that could deliver serious betting value. Here are the experts’ top Breeders’ Cup 2025 picks and predictions, centered on longshots worth watching.
Juvenile Fillies Turf: Queen of Hawaii Offers 12-1 Value
Aaron Halterman kicked off the show in Race 8 on Friday with a filly he believes can spice up the exotics:
“I keep going back to the number two Queen of Hawaii-12 to 1 on the morning line here. A horse trained by Joseph O’Brien… just getting better and better with each start.”
Halterman noted that while the favorite Precise is formidable, “when you get a horse like Precise that’s going to take a lot of money, it opens up a lot of options with horses that are higher prices than they should be.”
Somich agreed: “If you want to throw a win bet in and you’re getting that 12-to-1 price, I think Queen of Hawaii is very interesting in this spot.”
Juvenile Turf Sprint: Military Code the European Closer to Watch
Somich’s first longshot came in Race 5, the Juvenile Turf Sprint, with a horse bringing strong European form:
“I’m going to go with the number two Military Code. I love this horse… It’s Appleby, it’s Buick, all systems go here.”
He explained his logic: “The other main contenders from Europe are all forwardly placed. I want the closer from Europe, not the speed horses.”
Halterman agreed the theory made sense and confirmed, “If Military Code wins, I’ll be smiling with you.”
Juvenile Turf: Ardisia at 15-1 Shows Fitness and Form
For his second longshot, Halterman turned to Race 10, the Juvenile Turf, focusing on consistency:
“I thought the number ten Ardisia was really interesting at 15 to 1… Comes in off great form, winning three out of the last five, hitting the board in all five races.”
He added, “The horse is going to be really fit… I really like Ardisia at 15 to 1. A win bet makes sense, but using this horse with the favorite is a good way to juice up exactas and tris.”
Somich backed him up: “If you get a better trip from the 10 than 14… all of a sudden 15-to-1 on Ardisia looks very, very interesting.”
Turf Sprint: Khaadem Could Strike Late at 10-1
Somich’s second pick came in Saturday’s Turf Sprint (Race 5), choosing experience and tactical versatility:
“I’m going to go with the number four Khaadem, 10 to 1 on the morning line… This is one of the better European turf sprinters out there.”
He praised the veteran’s class: “If we can reclaim just a little bit of the form from 2024 or 2023, I think this is actually a standout.”
Halterman added context: “A nine-year-old horse still running at this level is really cool… there’s only been one other nine-year-old horse to win a Breeders’ Cup race.”
Both noted that the Turf Sprint’s blistering early pace- “20 and four, 21 flat”– could set up perfectly for Khaadem’s late kick.
Distaff: Scylla and Dorth Vader in a Wide-Open Race
Halterman’s final longshot came in the Distaff, where he highlighted Scylla (15-1) as a strong value play:
“I’ve loved this horse for a long time… I think she gets better second time going long again in the form cycle. I like her at 15 to 1. The biggest other reason for me- this is a weak race.”
Somich agreed that Scylla makes sense underneath but also mentioned Dorth Vader as intriguing:
“If this race goes that way, I can’t believe I’m about to say this- doesn’t Dorth Vader win? She’s the one that doesn’t stumble at the end. She just kind of keeps going.”
Breeders’ Cup Classic: Antiquarian the Bold Longshot Pick
Somich saved his boldest call for last, going to the Breeders’ Cup Classic:
“With Sovereignty out, I think you can poke holes in a lot of horses. Give me the number ten, Antiquarian, 10 to 1 in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.”
He argued the improving colt has “gotten better in every one of his last five races” and “his last number is already good enough to win this.”
Halterman respected the gutsy pick: “It takes guts to do it, right? You can poke holes in all these horses… but this horse is getting better and better.”
Both agreed that with Sovereignty scratched, the Classic is “wide open”, and Antiquarian offers “the bigger price with more upside than anyone else.”
Why These Longshots Matter
The VSiN experts emphasized that longshots create the biggest opportunities for bettors. As Somich said, “If you told me you liked Nevada Beach, I wouldn’t say you’re crazy… this is a race where you want to try and find a little bit of a price.”
Across multiple races, both hosts looked for under-the-radar horses with improving form, favorable setups, or class that’s hidden behind dominant favorites- classic longshot profiles for Breeders’ Cup weekend.
Final Takeaway
From Queen of Hawaii and Military Code on Friday to Scylla, Khaadem, and Antiquarian on Saturday, Somich and Halterman’s analysis gives bettors a roadmap to high-value opportunities in the Breeders’ Cup 2025.
For full expert picks and confidence scores, Somich reminded viewers:
Watch the full episode:
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