Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh previews the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf 2025, including the entries, odds, and past performances of the field.
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Aidan O’Brien sounded legitimately surprised talking about Gstaad, the colt favored to become his eighth winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.
Gstaad in his debut surged late to cut down his stablemate True Love, a subsequent Group 1 winner and favorite in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. Second out, Gstaad made mincemeat out of 19 2-year-olds in the Group 2 Coventry at Royal Ascot, looking like one of the sharpest European 2-year-olds of 2025. He is. Yet Gstaad has not won since. Second by a neck in the Group 1 Prix Morny, he was second by a head in the Group 1 National, then second by three-quarters in the Group 1 Dewhurst.
“He’s the kind of horse we had two or three Group 1s penciled down for, and none of them went right,” O’Brien said.
In a vacuum, best race to best race, no one in the $1 million Juvenile Turf can beat Gstaad. They will not run the race in a vacuum, and when post positions were drawn Monday, things, once again, did not go right. Gstaad drew post 14, a precarious position in the one-mile Juvenile Turf.
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The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf will be Race 10 in your Friday Del Mar program with post time expected to be 8:25 p.m. ET on October 31.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf 2025 Entries, Horses, Jockeys, and Trainers:
| Post | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
| 1 | Heeere’s Johnny | J. Castellano | R. Handal | 15-1 |
| 2 | Street Beast | L. Machado | B. Colebrook | 10-1 |
| 3 | Outfielder | J. Egan | W. Ward | 10-1 |
| 4 | Third Beer | A. Fresu | T. Yakteen | 30-1 |
| 5 | Let’s Be Frank | J. Hernandez | M. Maker | 15-1 |
| 6 | North Coast | D. McMonagle | J P O’Brien | 30-1 |
| 7 | Gordon Pass | I. Ortiz Jr. | W. Walden | 20-1 |
| 8 | Stark Contrast | K. Kimura | M. McCarthy | 30-1 |
| 9 | Argos | F. Prat | R. Mott | 6-1 |
| 10 | Ardisia | O. Murphy | H. Palmer | 15-1 |
| 11 | Turf Star | T. Gaffalione | H. G. Motion | 30-1 |
| 12 | Bottas | M. Franco | M. Clement | 6-1 |
| 13 | Hey Nay Nay | J. Rosario | J. Sadler | 8-1 |
| 14 | Gstaad | C. Soumillon | A P O’Brien | 9/5 |
| AE | Caro Buono | J. Oritz | L. Powell | 30-1 |
Since 2020, horses breaking from post 14 in one-mile Del Mar grass races are winless in 14 starts; two finished third or better. Post 13 is 1 for 28, 3 for 28 in the top 3. The great Ryan Moore, O’Brien’s top rider, suffered a stress fracture in his leg that has taken him out of action for several months. Moore has ridden 24 horses at Del Mar and won two Breeders’ Cup races here just last year. Christophe Soumillon, Moore’s replacement during the injury absence, makes his Del Mar debut this week. The first of the Juvenile Turf’s two turns comes up fast. Split-second choices will make all the difference.
“Listen, it’s a long flight over, and [Soumillon] will probably have a lot of thinking about the whole thing,” O’Brien said.
Gstaad, who makes his first start beyond seven furlongs and has won twice over six, has the speed to establish decent position before the bend.
“He does, 100 percent, but you can’t burn them up early, either,” O’Brien said.
O’Brien insists Gstaad didn’t race too keenly in the Dewhurst, but he did resist Soumillon’s attempt to get him back during the race’s early stages. Not until Soumillon steered Gstaad behind cover did he switch off. A quarter-mile out he had aim at upset winner Gewan but could not run him down.
The other two Europeans lack Gstaad’s sizzle. North Coast, trained by Joseph O’Brien, finished 10 lengths behind Gstaad in the seven-furlong National, though a wet course at The Curragh likely compromised him. Before that Sept. 14 start, North Coast had progressed steadily, hitting a peak whipping overmatched rivals July 24 around a left-handed turn at Leopardstown.
Ardisia makes his 12th start and never has raced beyond six furlongs, though he has improved steadily since being gelded early this summer.
Final Score, the leading American hope, developed a sore shin after winning the Oct. 5 Bourbon at Keeneland and misses the Juvenile Turf, which has one also-eligible, Caro Buono. The second- and third-place Bourbon finishers, Turf Star and Gordon Pass, have their work cut out. Turf Star did have to alter course in midstretch when Final Score dropped down to the rail, but up to that point, Turf Star got a perfect Bourbon trip. Gordon Pass raced last of 12 before finishing fastest, gaining on Final Score through the last furlong. His trainer, Will Walden, said Gordon Pass can stay closer to the pace.
“He just got lost out there. He’s still so green, such a colt, clowning around,” Walden said. “He’s got talent. He’s moved forward every race.”
Argos won the Grade 1 Summer, a one-mile race that’s part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series, finishing with good energy in his first start beyond a sprint distance, albeit after an ideal trip. Argos had the speed to win his 5 1/2-furlong debut at Ellis Park before a third in a Woodbine sprint stakes.
“He went to Woodbine twice and had hard races, but luckily he hasn’t regressed at all,” trainer Riley Mott said. “He’s a solid horse, has continued training very well.”
The top three finishers in the Pilgrim at Aqueduct, another Breeders’ Cup Challenge race, try the Juvenile Turf. Bottas – who also has a bad draw in post 12 – won his debut at Saratoga, overcoming his own mistakes, trainer Miguel Clement said, and won the Pilgrim by overcoming a tough trip. Put into a very tight spot at the furlong grounds, Bottas then got pushed down to the rail by drifting-in second-place finisher Heeere’s Johnny. He still got his head down first.
“He’s a very talented 2-year-old still figuring it out. Life’s still a big game for him,” Clement said. “He was more mature in his second start. His works have always been between good and very good. Running in the Breeders’ Cup against a full field, you’re worried about experience, not so much ability.”
Heeere’s Johnny enters as a four-start maiden. Pilgrim third-place finisher Let’s Be Frank is winless in two outings, but don’t discount him. Breaking from a wide draw, Let’s Be Frank lost ground on both Pilgrim turns, and once he got his legs underneath him in upper stretch, he finished fastest.
Hey Nay Nay heads the California faction, unbeaten after three starts. Hey Nay Nay has loads of speed and must deploy it breaking from post 13. After a debut turf sprint win at Santa Anita, Hey Nay Nay captured the five-furlong Tyro at Monmouth by seven lengths, and after leading in those sprints, he sat off a rival before pouncing to win the one-mile Del Mar Juvenile Turf on Sept. 7. Trainer John Sadler passed the Zuma Beach at Santa Anita to bring a fresh horse into Friday’s contest.
“His numbers have improved so dramatically, and his number last time was fast enough to win this already,” Sadler said of the decision to wait for the Juvenile Turf. “He was fast, but we always thought distance wouldn’t be a problem for him the way he’s bred, his body type.”
Hey Nay Nay could wind up just outside and behind stretch-out sprinter Outfielder, whom trainer Wesley Ward scratched from a Keeneland dirt sprint last weekend in favor of Friday’s start. Ward said after Outfielder won on the Keeneland main track two weekends ago that he saw Outfielder as a dirt horse, but Outfielder, breaking somewhat poorly, did come within 2 1/2 lengths of Gstaad in the Prix Morny at Deauville. He’s fast and never has gone beyond six furlongs, but Outfielder’s dam, Notte d’Oro, raced effectively up to 1 1/8 miles on turf.
Stark Contrast, 2 for 2 on turf, though a perfect-trip winner of the Oct. 5 Zuma Beach, is joined in the Juvenile Turf by Zuma Beach runner-up Third Beer, who just might be the best-looking horse in the race. Both will need to run faster, while Street Beast needs to show he’s more than a Kentucky Downs horse. In the space of 10 days, Street Beast won two races over that funky, European-style course.
That’s not to say he can’t transfer that form to Del Mar. But neither he nor anyone else will beat Gstaad – if the favorite’s post doesn’t beat him.
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