Daily Racing Form expert analysts David Aragona and Kenny Peck handicap the Friday, October 30 Breeders’ Cup racing card fron Keeneland.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
Keeneland, Race 6, Friday, 2:55 p.m. ET
David Aragona: The Europeans have sent a formidable brigade for this and seem likely to take home the top prize. For a turf sprint, owing to the preference given to international participants, there isn’t that much pace signed on. That could benefit MOONRISE, who has better tactical speed than most Euros in here and should sit a nice pocket trip. She’s won all three starts when Oisin Murphy has been up and held her own against the best in Europe last time. FORCE NOIR has been a little inconsistent, but he has tactical speed and does appear to be peaking ahead of this. LIBERTANGO owns the best form of the Europeans and will benefit from picking up Flavien Prat. However, she’s consistently a bit slow from the gate, and that has to be considered at a short price. Among the Americans, BRICKYARD BELLE has done nothing wrong and Harper’s Corner should be leading the field for a long way. As usual, it’s a wide-open affair to kick off the Breeders’ Cup.
Kenny Peck: LIBERTANGO was unable to run with Sun Goddess in the Cheveley Park last time, but she was game in defeat in a race that yielded the best Timeform Rating of her career. She was a game winner of the Lowther Stakes two back after a slow start forced her to weave through a bulky field and figures to be rolling late in this BC Juvenile Turf Sprint if she can post an improved figure for the third straight race. FINAL OBJECTIVE just outgamed the others in a blanket finish in the Flying Childers Stakes in his latest. He’s another who figures to appreciate a quick, contested pace up front. MUSSAB eyes his fourth straight, and a repeat of that last one could be good enough to do it, though he may be at his best at a flat five furlongs. FORCE NOIR has high speed and will be a factor from the outset.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
Keeneland, Race 7, Friday, 3:35 p.m. ET
David Aragona: It’s easy to see why connections started DOMAIN EXPANSION on turf, given her massive stride and high-stepping action. She was just a bit one-paced in that lone grass start, but switching to dirt in the Oak Leaf unlocked her true potential. She was more forward, traveling in the bridle despite racing in traffic, and then exploded with run when let loose in the lane. Distance is obviously no issue; she drew well inside, and figures to be a fair price since her connections aren’t household names. I have few knocks against EMPHATIC other than the price. She’s run faster than these, albeit with a perfect trip. Yet she doesn’t need the lead and is the only horse in here with multiple two-turn wins. FOXIEST is the one longshot I’d throw into the mix. She needs to improve again, but she has a ton of pedigree behind her and showed encouraging determination when bulling her way through traffic to win her maiden.
Kenny Peck: MANUKA HONEY goes two turns and meets Grade 1 company for the first time in this Juvenile Fillies, but she couldn’t have been much more impressive in her first three starts, rating kindly and drawing off smartly in all of those races, including in the Grade 3 Pocahontas Stakes last time. She will need a career-best Beyer to win this but could well still be on the improve. MISS MONICA was never threatened in either of her first two starts at Del Mar, and she showed the ability to race on the lead or come from off the pace. She’ll be a forward factor in her first route try. DOMAIN EXPANSION merits respect off that big effort in the Oak Leaf. Her positional speed and inside post should mean she’s well spotted from the start. EMPHATIC probably won’t get another loose lead, but she doesn’t need to be, and that versatility gives her some options.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Keeneland, Race 8, Friday, 4:15 p.m. ET
David Aragona: The two favorites have garnered all the headlines leading into what is easily the deepest ever edition of this race. Yet that depth goes beyond the headliners, as there are other Europeans in here who would be vying for favoritism in any normal year. ALWAYSANANGEL is among those. What has this filly ever done wrong? She seemed to relish the step up in trip when winning at seven furlongs two back and then was staying on admirably while no match for SUN GODDESS over a shorter trip in the Cheveley Park. She’s got all stamina on her dam’s side and looks like one that will go farther. I have few knocks against the favorite, who has been terrific. On form, Sun Goddess is better than Meditate and Lake Victoria, who each won this race for Aidan O’Brien in recent years. Her only drawback is the prohibitive price. AMUSINGLY is the obvious upset threat off her sparkling last-to-first Lagardere win. She’s a headstrong horse who needs to get held up to maintain all of her finishing speed, so her trip may be trickiest to work out among the Europeans.
Kenny Peck: VANTA seemed vulnerable off the turn in the Surfer Girl Stakes, as the leader, Blockade, controlled the pace from the start and still had run, but Vanta made a strong bid under a hand ride to win for the third time in as many starts. It wasn’t as visually impressive as her win in Del Mar’s Juvenile Filly Turf, but she has every right to take a step forward given a contested pace up front. SENECA PARK weakened in the Jessamine, but that was a strong effort as she had to outrun other speeds to get clear. She is dangerous if she can back the fractions down more efficiently here. SUN GODDESS is a brilliant sprinter and perhaps capable of winning this BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, though she may not be the right value play given her inexperience at this distance. AMUSINGLY hasn’t done much wrong in three starts in France, where she showed a nice late kick. She is a clear stretch threat.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Keeneland, Race 9, Friday, 4:55 p.m. ET
David Aragona: I had initially been skeptical of AMERICAN HISTORY’s Breeders’ Futurity since the race appeared to fall into his lap. However, he did break a length slowly and had to be ridden for nearly the entire race trying to regain position. I really liked his debut, a race that has proven to be stronger than the speed figures suggest, and he’s trained brilliantly out of that last win. In my opinion, he’s most likely to upset HUGHES, who does merit respect. I just question this favorite’s overall class. None of the horses who he’s beaten out west are particularly good, and it’s very easy to poke holes in that standout American Pharoah figure. Hughes is the most likely winner, but his price will be too short. My crazy longshot to throw in is EARTH SONG, who was bumped hard at the quarter pole of the Champagne but nevertheless stayed on well. He looks like the sort who will improve going two turns.
Kenny Peck: AMERICAN HISTORY wore down a softened-up COACH POPE in the final yards of the Breeders’ Futurity after a slow start left him with a lot to do, and though he was aided by an otherwise clean trip and the contested pace, he should once again be the beneficiary of a duel up front. He has lots of upside as he makes only his third career start in this BC Juvenile and he could be good enough given the right setup. Coach Pope was a game second in that race, nearly lasting despite the race-long duel. He proved in his maiden score two back that he doesn’t have to be on the lead and can turn the tables here if he can avoid another pace battle. Looking to beat HUGHES, who benefited from an ideal trip in the American Pharoah and will be the heavy favorite.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
Keeneland, Race 10, Friday, 5:35 p.m. ET
David Aragona: The Coolmore team has sent five to this race (even French-trained Avec Toi shares ownership with the Aidan O’Brien quartet), so it’s hard to imagine they’ll come away empty-handed. The strange thing is that I don’t really like their shorter prices but am drawn to some of their longshot contenders. FLORIDA BAY is generally regarded as a pacemaker for his stablemates, but he’s better than that. He defeated one of his key rivals in the Tyros and has been game in defeat in each loss since then while keeping top company. He’s an excellent gate horse for a European, and there isn’t a ton of speed in here. MAN’S BEST FRIEND is the other Coolmore runner I want. He was so impressive when overcoming trouble to win the Richmond and has had minor excuses since. He seems cut out to relish this one-mile stretch-out. There’s nothing wrong with the form of favorites HOW’S AL TODAY or FOLSOM BLUES, but I saw this race as too wide open among the Euros to take a short price on anyone.
Kenny Peck: FOLSOM BLUES has yet to run a poor race, and his latest two efforts were the best of his career in terms of his Timeform Ratings. The one-mile distance of this Juvenile Turf presents a question he’ll have to answer, but those seven-furlong tries didn’t suggest he’ll have an issue with the extra ground. GREAT BARRIER REEF is another trying a route for the first time, and he’s another who posted the best figures of his short career in his last pair. His outside post is no bargain, but he clearly has the speed to get position while also capable of making a run late. HOW’S AL TODAY swallowed up the leaders with quick bursts in each of his two starts on the turf at Kentucky Downs, and while he was aided by the race flow in both of those races, he has to be respected off those running lines. AVEC TOI could show sharpened speed with blinkers added and from his inside post.
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