Horse Racing Best Bets
Happy Derby Draw day! The Kentucky Derby gate will be filled tonight between races on the Opening Day card from Churchill Downs. We are expecting a full field of 20. Make sure to check on my article from Tuesday about the importance of the post position and some stats that have come into play over the years. Now, for today’s racing best bets.
Roxelana Stakes, Churchill Downs, Race #9
The opening night card from Churchill Downs features one stakes race, the Roxelana, which drew a competitive and speedy field. The #6 Dazzling Blue will head postward as the favorite, exiting three straight Grade 2 races where she made a good impression of herself. She drops back down today and should face horses that are more her peers.
Dazzling Blue, and a few others, project to be quick early, and that could set it up for #9 Socially Selective, who slightly cuts back in distance today while stepping up in class. The price is right at 6-1 since this filly still has to prove she can handle this level, but trainer Bill Mott has done well with these types of horses, and I like how she stalked and won last time out.
#4 Positano Sunset is another one that would benefit from a quicker early pace. She has run down the leaders in her last two races since exiting graded stakes company. She will be running again late at a nice 12-1 price.
Aptly named #3 Speedy Traveler is one of those who will try to speed out to the lead early. She is 3 for 3 in her career and has never trailed a horse. She will face more speed today than any prior start, but she still has to be considered dangerous.
Picks: 9-6-4-3
Racing Best Bets:
$50 Win #9
$75,000 Handicap, Gulfstream Park, Race #10
Gulfstream Park has a fun card today that will be highlighted by the estimated $3M Pick mandatory payout that includes this tricky 10th race. As always, a ton of speed is signed on for this turf sprint, which should benefit #11 Xy Speed, who is coming off a win over this course and distance. He is a rare case of an 8-year-old horse that has clearly found his best stride late in his career since switching to the Lerman barn, and the setup is right for him to keep it rolling.
One of my favorite Gulfstream horses, #3 Yes I Am Free returns to the GP turf where he is 9 for 20 lifetime and drops down in class after three straight stakes races. He has tons of other speed to contend with here, but we have seen him deal with that before and still get to the wire first.
#12 Souper Quest has shown a ton of promise in his 55 career races, with three wins and losses to excellent turf sprinters Nobals and Sosua Summer. His post and style are against him here, but he’s the most likely to take a step forward if he can overcome those obstacles.
#10 Kanthari enters off a disappointing 5th-year debut but has shown the ability to stalk the pace and win over this course and distance before. If he can return to last year’s form, he should be right in it at the wire.
Picks: 11-3-12-10
Racing Best Bets:
$25 Exacta Box – 3, 11
Spot plays:
Gulfstream Park Race #3 – $50 Win #7Gulfstream Park Race #8 – $50 Win #1
