EPL Best Bets
Let’s take a closer look at this week’s EPL best bets.
Tottenham vs. Burnley
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Burnley are five points from safety with two games to play. If they don’t win this one, they will be officially relegated and heading straight back to the Championship.
The Clarets will be desperate to get the three points here to give themselves a chance and set up what could potentially be a “winner survives” final-day clash with Nottingham Forest. If they can get that far, I think they would be favorites to beat Forest.
Vincent Kompany will still need results elsewhere to go their way, but all his side can do is take care of their own business. That means visiting Tottenham and beating them.
Looking at the odds with Spurs priced at -345, you would think they may as well start planning for life in the second tier already. I think this a lot closer than the odds suggest and make the +750 a very big price.
Ange Postecoglou’s men are playing terrible, conceding an awful lot of goals and are on the worst run under the big Aussie since he joined the club. They have lost their last four league games and conceded 13 goals in the process.
Admittedly, those fixtures were all against sides in the top seven, but Spurs look leg-weary. They are suffering from injuries to key players, especially in defensive areas, which has led to them looking very vulnerable at the back.
There is a well-used phrase in the UK that is to be “Spursy,” which basically means to have success close but to throw it away, especially by losing to sides you should beat. I certainly wouldn’t be backing them at -345 here when they need four points to guarantee European soccer next season and with rock-bottom Sheffield United to play on the last day.
This is going to be difficult against a Burnley side that I know were disappointing last week. They will be ready to give it their all in this do-or-die fixture. They have only lost two of their last nine games, and some of those performances deserved better.
Now it is time for the biggest match of their season and arguably in the career of Kompany. I wouldn’t put anyone off a small slice of that +750 on the Moneyline but the bet must be taking Burnley +1.75 Asian Handicap at -120 which is absolutely huge.
That means we only lose our full stake if Tottenham win by three or more goals. something they have only managed once at home this season.
I don’t think Burnley’s need to win has been factored into this price. Or that the adaptation to “Ange-ball” has taken its toll on this weary looking, injury-ravaged Spurs side who are longing for the beach.
EPL Best Bet: Burnley +1.75 Asian Handicap at -120.
Wolves vs. Crystal Palace
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
We cashed our ticket on Crystal Palace last week as they destroyed Manchester United. I am going in on them again here. For one of the few times this season, they could put out their strongest starting line-up, and, oh, how it showed.
Michael Olise, Eberechi Eze, Jean-Philippe Mateta and Adam Wharton all started and were exceptional. The Red Devils could not get near them, and in the end, the 4-0 scoreline flattered United, if anything.
Oliver Glasner’s hardest job will be keeping those stars once the transfer window reopens. In the meantime, the feelgood factor is back, with a manager playing to his squad’s strengths with an open, exciting, and front-foot style.
You couldn’t get two sides meet in more contrasting form or mood. Wolves just want the season to end while Palace would be happy to just keep playing.
Gary O’Neil has seen his side win just one of their last nine games across all competitions. That win was against strugglers Luton but was followed up by a crushing 5-1 defeat at Manchester City.
History has shown Wolves to be traditionally very good at home, but they have lost four of their last five at Molineux. That includes defeats to West Ham and Bournemouth in the league and mid-table Championship side Coventry in the FA Cup. With injury concerns over several key players, there is plenty for the home side to worry about.
In contrast, the Eagles are now unbeaten in their last five, winning four of them. I think they are more dangerous on the road than at home. They certainly have the tools to cause even the best teams’ problems on the counterattack, and Wolves do not come into that bracket.
The visitors are one side in the league who despite having nothing to play for will be driven on by their new manager to finish as strong as they can. There has been a rebase on Palace with them going off at minus money against Manchester United and they are the favourites again here. Rightly so.
Palace are a public play currently, but unusually for me, it is one I am happy to get behind. Once again, I wouldn’t put anyone off taking them on the moneyline, but the draw does concern me, so my play is the safer option of Tie No Bet, meaning if it does end all square, we get our stake back.
EPL Best Bet: Crystal Palace Tie No Bet at -134.
Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
Nottingham Forest did justify the ridiculous odds last week as they came from behind to beat Sheffield United 3-1. They were lucky to be in the game at halftime before going on to claim the win in the second half. Let’s not forget they were playing a relegated side, bottom of the league, with just 16 points on the board and who have now conceded 100 goals. This is a massive step up in class.
If results go their way in the earlier games, Forest could actually be safe by the time they kick off here. That would have a massive impact on this fixture and change the betting completely, with the price on Chelsea crashing.
Regardless of that scenario, my bet here is still for Chelsea to win at -103. The only reason they are that price is because the hosts are in a relegation scrap and could well have to win.
The other thing I like about this play is Forest’s form against the better sides in the league when they visit the City Ground. Of the remaining members of the top seven, five have returned with a win, and Nuno Espirito Santo’s men have collected just three points from a possible 18.
The slight concern is that Chelsea have not won any of the last five on the road but have drawn four of those, including trips to Aston Villa and Manchester City, with their only defeat coming at Arsenal. However, the emphatic nature of their last two wins is enough to convince me Mauricio Pochettino has his side on the right path.
Nicolas Jackson has started finding his feet and scored three goals in his last two games. While player of the season Cole Palmer has 30 direct goal involvements to his name in the league (21 goals, nine assists).
The Blues are now well in the hunt for a European qualification place. Sitting in seventh, their highest position of the season, they are two points behind Newcastle and six adrift of Spurs with three games to play.
Chelsea on the moneyline at -103 is the play.
EPL Best Bet: Chelsea Moneyline at -103.
